Regardling Paladin Threat Scaling

Over the past couple of months I've seen concerns popping up about Paladin threat scaling in very late endgame. Right now it's not really a problem, as it is only affecting Tankadins in Illidan farm guilds where therre's a bunch of breathing room on the encounters anyway, but it's definitely a concern going forward.

What I'm interested in is understanding how Prot Warriors' threat scales with gear, in terms of itemization points. For Pallies, our main threat stat (+dam) yields about .6-.7 tps per itemization point (1 +dam = .855 itemization points). As I understand it, Warrior's main threat stats for tanking are hit rating, block value, and expertise rating.

Does anyone have an idea of how well their threat scales with these stats? Eventually I'd like to get into what we might change to have Paladin threat scale similarly, but to start I'd just like to establish what makes it work for Warriors.
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I too would be interested to see not only this, but how skill factors in.

Example: our old MC tank in full epix is easily out-threatted by one of our alt prot warriors, who was rocking blues and greens.
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armory | youtube | stuff

Here's the relevant EJ thread

http://elitistjerks.com/f31/t18771-protection_warrior/

It'll be a while until I manage to digest this fully to be able to spit out an easy X = Y type thing... but there it is for everyone to check out
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Well under 10c. they have that 1 BV = .156 tps and 1 hit rating = .7 tps. That actually puts scaling close to on par with ours, the hit rating value should scale with weapon DPS. There's also nothing about expertise in that first post. Time to dig some more
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Yeah the problem is that expertise, which is now the best stat in the game for warrior tanks, doesn't seem to have been fully explored in that first guide.
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The other thing we need to consider...is it just misitemized gear (or should I say too well itemized for warriors) that is causing the issue, or is it class mechanics(which WERE changed for warriors very recently)?
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<3 Tankadin at Heart.

Not necessarily accurate: Armory

http://elitistjerks.com/f31/t11634-warrior_tanking_tps_sheet/p7/

The post by Isidur has a updated version of this spreadsheet. The default values seemed reasonable to me.

From playing with the spreadsheet, it seems like 1 expertise skill (3.94 expertise rating) adds approx 5 TPS using those base stats.

:O
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Seems expertise is worth a LOT of TPS even if you tweak things like AP and Hit down
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I think it's more the itemization than anything else. Between mitigation stats pulling double duty for threat and the end-game items being a much greater improvement on their damage compared to ours, you have the situation where warrior gear that is threat-heavy still is reasonable to tank in; paladin gear that is threat-heavy is not.

I'm not sure it's much to do with scaling abilities so much as it's scaling items.

Just to illustrate the scaling that warriors enjoy with the completely overpowered (or underpriced Expertise rating)

Combat Ratings:

3.76 Expertise Rating --> 1 Expertise --> 0.25 neg Dodge and 0.25 neg Parry
15.76 Hit Rating --> 1% hit chance

For Warriors, from the EJ thread on Protection Warrior threat
1 block value is equal to 0.16 TPS
1 hit rating is equal to ~0.7 TPS (1% chance to hit equals roughly 11 TPS.)
Therefore, since neg dodge and neg parry would work the same as hit, it takes 2 expertise to equal the threat of 1% hit. In otherwords, it takes only 7.52 Expertise Rating to generate 11 TPS

For Paladins

1 spell damage = ~ 0.5 TPS

To generate 100 TPS:

Expertise Rating (War) --> 68.3 Expertise Rating
Block Value (War) --> 625 Block Value
Spell Damage (Pal) --> 200 Spell Damage

Item Cost to Generate 100 TPS:

ItemValue = [(StatValue[1]*StatMod[1])^1.5
Here are the StatMod values:
Spell Damage (All Spells) 0.855
Combat Rating (Any) 1.000
Blocking Value 0.650

Item Value Cost to achieve 100 TPS Using:
Expertise Rating (War) --> 564.5
Spell Damage (Pal) --> 2236
Block Value (War) --> 8188

The apparently slower scaling of Block Value than Spell Damage makes a bit of sense because of the fact that block value is also linearly increasing your damage mitigation as well. That expertise also increases (slightly) your mitigation is somewhat of an additional insult to injury.

It also says that if you are a warrior you need to pick up every bit of defensively oriented expertise gear that you can possibly can, but I'm sure they realize that.

If anything, expertise should be more expensive than hit rating because of the mitigation it provides.

I would expect that at lvl 80 you will need exponentially more expertise rating to get a point of expertise than you do at 70. But, this is an issue that they should keep track of.

From Tankspot:

Max your TPS: Expertise & Hit stacking gear list :
http://www.theoryspot.com/forums/gear-lists-rankings/33811-max-your-tps-expertise-hit-stacking-gear-list.html

The Hyjal random cloak is missing in the +hit section (Pepe's Shroud of Pacification).
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Cauze blizzard begins to let healing suck.

The deal with warrior threat is that most of it comes from fixed "per attack" values on the primary tanking abilities (shield slam, devastate, heroic strike, revenge). The damage done for each has a minor factor, but the reality is that AP scales fairly slowly for devastate, and doesn't scale at all for revenge. Autoattack and heroic strike are functionally the same from the perspective of attack power, and this does scale a bit better with AP. Revenge and shield slam can belt out some decent numbers on crits. And, of course, block value ramps up shield slam a little. However, at the end of the day, the prot warrior's threat has very little to do with his damage output, and much more with the number of attacks landed. The end result is that anything which increases hit chance (either via direct hit rating or via parry/dodge reduction) is going to have a huge effect on threat output, whereas crit and strength only effect threat from damage, not innate threat, and thus are much smaller.

Now, as for the numbers posted: keep in mind that you're looking at expertise gear from the perspective that it will scale up forever. That's not true. After 25 expertise skill (already obtainable in game) you're going to see the dodge reduction fall off the table. Suddenly, expertise is only worth half its current value - so adding more in Sunwell isn't going to scale up threat the way it does now, unless you drop it somewhere else. (NOTE- it would still scale down parry count, providing effective mitigation, but without the massive threat benefits.) Also, since we're talking about end game gear here, does that threat-per-blockvalue number take into account the 4x T6 bonus? (10% more damage done by shield slam).

-Splug
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(Usually) Prot warrior: http://www.wowarmory.com/character-sheet.xml?r=Illidan&n=Splug