T6 Content desired avoidance

This thread is highly entertaining.

For reference I'm an aviodance whore. I like seeing "dodge, parry, parry, miss .... 20s go by .... dodge, parry, omg block". I'd rather chain mana pot on a fight to maintain threat than get hit more often regualarly. However I am putting together a pure BV set that will be over 1k BV for times when getting hit would be beneficial. I just don't think getting hit on a fight like Teron or Azgalor on a regular basis is good, threat potential be damned. I may even end up regemming my gear for less health and more avoidance.

Once again, i'm an avoidance whore.
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Lansky BE Paladin Mannoroth
http://www.wowarmory.com/character-sheet.xml?r=Mannoroth&n=Lansky

The available gear in game is known and finite, provided you can eventually obtain it. The number of bosses and unique elements of each boss is known and finite. A small amount of information is known about the gear setup and stats of tanks who have successfully tanked each fight, barring other variables like the guild's overall raiding prowess.

The basis question is, for any given encounter, barring gimmicks and such, would is the ideal gear set (in terms of avoidance and HP/block/AC) to beat it. Yes, fights can be beaten with the wrong types of gear sets, but that is not my point. Theoretically the highest number of successful encounters were beaten with the correct gear more often than those with incorrect gear. There is some balance of avoidance and EH. There are some minimums, sure, but these minimums are both actual minimums due to the boss attack damage per hit or specials, and more realistic minimums in terms of what healers can handle and other gimmicks.

I think the next step is to come up with a dataset I could use. I am specifically not too worried about spell damage and threat output at the moment, this is for surviving the fight to beat it, as if there were no DPS raiders and there was no DPS requirement (i.e. your healers have to keep you alive for 6 minutes, then the boss automatically dies). Right now the variables I have in mind are:

* Encounter - name of boss etc
* Zone - if encounter is too specific
* Dodge
* Parry
* Defense
* Block Rating
* Block Value
* Actual Buffed Health
* Armor Count
* Success - whether the encounter was won or lost. true/false is good enough, although our target attribute could be more specific if necessary.
* Other variables I need to think more...

Essentially, you should be able to develop a simple classification model, kinda like a regression (like CART or CHAID). After making sure the data is not biased and such, tanks could input their variables into the model for any given encounter and on the outcome get their probability of success. They could also play around and see what gear swaps would improve or worsen the outcome.

It is kind of like the simulator, but I am trying to actually create a model, not just see results. The model would ideally be trained on actual data pulled over the course of a few months. I just need to figure out a way to build this. I almost need a thread where each time you tank a boss (win or lose), you post the bosses name and your values for each of these variables (what was your dodge, what was your parry, etc). That would serve as a great starting point. Although I doubt this community would be up for it, and I don't want to abuse the forums.

Maybe I will make a web service that collects it into a DB and then link it to there. Everyone can go type in their values (or maybe just link to their armory) and the encounter. I just hope it would not get publically abused.
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Like ... OMG. WTF? BBQ.

2.3 Just came out. I figured all you tankadins would be out rolling around in the pure unadulterated joy of it, and pissing off all your friends by telling them how much hp you have post 2.3. Where the fuck did you find the time to post such a long and interesting thread?

Alright, alright, I should have used the term perpendicular, geesh.
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I had to use double stamina trinkets before 2.3 because of our lack of drops and my other crap gear in comparison to the other tanks, I cuold barely break 20K until ver recently. Now I only use my Darkmoon card, but now its easier to get 20K HP, I dump my Poultrizer for a nice oh shit trinket or something, don't like stamina trinkets really wru Shadowmoon insignia.

In response to your question: I don't really know, I am a bit of a stamina whore I guess, but not too much so. I would like to get 21-22k HP buffed ideally then stack avoidance and threat, currently mine is at about 51/52%, I'll probably aim for 60 (again 60 is a random number, maybe i'll get more because BT gear has very nice avoidance).
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This is a great thread. I've been playing around with the badge upgrades on Warcrafter.net and one thing that I've noticed is that my Defense is actually dropping below 490 if I go pure +stam for everything. Whereas grabbing the hybrid gems (agi/stam and def/stam) puts me back into the realm of uncrittable, a couple % more dodge, and still 15K health unbuffed, which I think is fine for T5 level progression.

I don't want to turn this into a gear discussion, but if I see Neuron's point correctly, then-- as someone mentioned earlier-- now that we're all getting over the stamina euphoria it's time we sit down and start taking a hard look at avoidance. There may be such a thing as "too much health", and this discussion is a good start for finding it.
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