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Maintankadin

The Case for Haste

Ashaton
Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:58 am

Re: The Case for Haste

Ok, here's what I have so far.

I looked at the iLvl progression for Mists. Heroic ToT gear was 535, and normal SoO gear was 540. The steps between difficulty levels is 13. Since we're just ballparking it, I assume from this that T18 and T19 will follow this pattern - normal tier gear is a half-step up from the previous tier's mythic level. In WoD, difficulty increases iLvl by 15 instead of 13. So my estimate is for T18, normal iLvl is 702, heroic is 717, and mythic is 732. For T19, normal is 740, heroic is 755, and mythic is 770.

So my gear sets will be iLvl 680, 695, 717, 732, 755, and 770.

I looked at some of the pieces from the T17H set and used Wowhead to examine the stat values at various iLvl configurations. I took samples from 630 (challenge mode scaled), 665 (normal), 671 (normal warforged), 680 (heroic), 686 (heroic warforged), 695 (mythic), and 701 (mythic warforged). For each stat, I ran an exponential regression on it to get a rough estimate of the stat values for T18 and T19 pieces.

Here's the final result for the extrapolated mastery-heavy set that T17H and T17M use:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VchYfXecjQWviFmGvTqovW-XRYKs06vPhdJj7I1iQeY/edit?usp=sharing

Now that I have these sets, I'll run them against the live, DR (P) and DR (D) sims. Once those are done, I'll build haste-heavy and balanced sets to see how they compare. I'm also disabling the set bonuses because they don't make sense when comparing tiers.

Edit: Forgot to scale boss damage. Using the same exponential regression as before, here are the auto-attack damage values for the new bosses:
T18H = 305000
T18M = 391000
T19H = 571000
T19M = 731000

I'll be pairing the T18H and T18M gear sets against the T18M boss, and the same with tier 19.
Ashaton
Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:33 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

I'm having some trouble setting manual stats for the gear summary in Simcraft. When I add config lines like "gear_strength=3718" and run the sim, it ends up giving me over 6000 strength instead. I'll have to take a harder look at that later and could use some help with it, but for now I'll ignore the scaled-up stats that I estimated earlier and just use Simcraft's built in iLvl scaling system. Should have some results shortly.
Ashaton
Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:25 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

Here are the Tier 18 results for the mastery-heavy set. It's basically T17H and T17M, but scaled up to iLvl 717 and 732 respectively via the Simcraft scale_to_itemlevel argument. Trinkets and the ring proc are still turned on, but the set bonus is disabled. The boss in this sim is T17M but its base damage is now 391000 instead of 210000. So keep that in mind and take these results with an entire mountain of salt.

Sources: https://www.dropbox.com/s/i3cajzxujr3z8w4/tier_18_mastery_heavy.zip?dl=0

Live mechanics results: T18H still has haste on the bottom, but in T18M it's the same as multistrike, both of which beat attack power.

T18H:
Image

T18M:
Image


Divine Riposte has some interesting results. The dodge and parry versions are basically the same so I'll just include the parry results here but you can see them for yourself in the source files above. For T18H, haste is still between strength and mastery. For T18M, it actually gets stronger than strength and rests under armor!

T18H Divine Riposte (Parry):
Image

T18M Divine Riposte (Parry):
Image

If this sim were accurate to the actual tier 18, then I think Divine Riposte would actually be too good of a solution at the highest gear levels. I'll do tier 19 next.
Ashaton
Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:34 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

For tier 19 (iLvls 755 and 770), haste actually starts to matter with live mechanics. It beats crit, multistrike and attack power. Interestingly, versatility is actually stronger than mastery and strength. In this gear we have 41.37% mastery, 41.19% parry, 23.8% crit and 15.59% haste. Here's the live chart - ignore the name, it says T17H but I just forgot to change it before I ran the sim. It's really T19H vs the T19M boss (attack value = 731000 as devised earlier).

Image

Divine Riposte (Parry) makes haste go completely out of control, sitting right underneath stamina. Our parry jumps up to 46.01% in this scenario. T19H DR (P) vs T19M boss:

Image

The Divine Riposte (Dodge) sims, as well as the T19M gear sims, both make haste outrageously powerful in this tier as well. If anything, Divine Riposte is too good in end-of-tier gear and would have to be brought back down to earth with a coefficient change or something.

Again, keep in mind that these are very rough estimates of tier 18 and 19 gear levels and stats so don't swear by the results! I've included all 18 source files here for you to look at. This is tier 17, 18, and 19, heroic and mythic gear configurations, for live mechanics, Divine Riposte (Parry) and Divine Riposte (Dodge). The tier bonus is disabled in all of these, but trinkets and the ring proc are enabled. Analyze away fellow theorycrafters! And as always, please let me know if you found a mistake in my work somewhere so I can correct it. I don't want to spread mis-information!

Source for all 18 configurations: https://www.dropbox.com/s/i4ge1ny5jonxtkt/T17-18-19%20Mastery-Heavy%20Set.zip?dl=0
Finkum
Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:42 am

Re: The Case for Haste

Ok my thoughts on your last few posts:

Ashaton wrote:[On T17H vs T17M gear-level stat scaling] Oh my. It seems the stronger our gear gets, the worse haste gets by a huge margin! This is really a problem!


I am suspicious of how dramatically the value of haste has tanked here, especially compared to the much more modest changes for every other stat. I suspect we're at one of those weird inflection points (which I still don't understand - stacking more of haste should never give you negative survivability and yet the positive slope in portions of the graph suggests sometimes haste does exactly that!)

Ashaton wrote:[On T17H vs T17M gear-level stat scaling with haste-adds-to-ShoR-DR] Unfortunately, when I ran this with the mythic gear profile, haste drops back to the bottom again (but not nearly as bad as it is in the live sim).


This is just confusing. We should expect haste and mastery to be strongly symbiotic here, but mastery is weaker at T17M gear levels than right now on live (worth 4.88 on live but 4.65 with the proposed change). I suppose it's possible that, now that mastery and haste are more tightly tied together, mastery is suffering from the same inflection point issue? Might be worth doing a stat scaling graph for this scenario to see.

Ashaton wrote:[On the value of pure dodge and parry] I don't understand these results though. Why does dodge perform worse than parry, when we naturally have more parry (thus making it more susceptible to diminishing returns)? Do dodge and parry have different rating to percentage or DR calculations? That would make sense. Either way, they both end up being the worst stats which I found surprising given their impact on crit and haste with Riposte and Divine Riposte.


As others have noted we have a more favourable parry rating conversion (although I'm surprised the difference is that large). Note that it makes perfect sense for pure parry to be worth comparatively little: remember earlier you calculated the stat benefit of crit-with-no-parry at 1.24 (I assume just from larger SoI, SS and L90 talent heals), which when added to the 2.71 benefit of parry gives 3.95 ~= 3.94 (which is the actual stat benefit of crit on live right now, at T17H). This all adds up very neatly (a difference of 0.01 fits within the error bars easily).

Ashaton wrote:[On T17H vs T17M when haste contributes to BA] It's not as strong as Divine Riposte (Parry), but it's still something. Unfortunately, it doesn't hold up as our gear gets better. In the T17M sim, haste drops down to the bottom again (but it's still much better off than it is with live mechanics)...

[On proposed T18H vs T18M ilvl gear] Live mechanics results: T18H still has haste on the bottom, but in T18M it's the same as multistrike, both of which beat attack power...

[On proposed T18H vs T18M ilvl gear with Divine Riposte] Divine Riposte has some interesting results. The dodge and parry versions are basically the same so I'll just include the parry results here but you can see them for yourself in the source files above. For T18H, haste is still between strength and mastery. For T18M, it actually gets stronger than strength and rests under armor!


Feels like I'm flogging a horse that died, was raised into undeath, then mercifully dispatched again, but I'm still thinking that a lot of the weirdness here is the inflection point issue :)

If so, the real problem right now is that we can't really effectively analyse how good haste is until we can figure out what's going on with the inflection points. I tossed a couple of ideas out in Theck's SimC thread a while back but they didn't pan out, and as far as I know Theck hasn't figured out precisely what's causing them either.

Rampant speculation: I wonder if one way around the problem might be to add in a random, very short delay (say between 0 and 0.15 seconds) between each ability use. I'm not sure if this is remotely an accurate representation of how people actually play, but random noise of this sort should (I think?) smooth out the haste inflection points? [Edit: Actually I can't pin down why I think this, it's just intuition again. But, I'm still interested to see what effect it would have. Really need to download SimC and figure out how to run these sort of tests myself!]
kaynine
Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:53 am

Re: The Case for Haste

Guys this talk of Divine Riposte is dangerous! I don't want to be the plate tank balanced around high avoidance. Anything but that!
Ashaton
Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:56 am

Re: The Case for Haste

Finkum wrote:I am suspicious of how dramatically the value of haste has tanked here, especially compared to the much more modest changes for every other stat. I suspect we're at one of those weird inflection points (which I still don't understand - stacking more of haste should never give you negative survivability and yet the positive slope in portions of the graph suggests sometimes haste does exactly that!)

This is just confusing. We should expect haste and mastery to be strongly symbiotic here, but mastery is weaker at T17M gear levels than right now on live (worth 4.88 on live but 4.65 with the proposed change). I suppose it's possible that, now that mastery and haste are more tightly tied together, mastery is suffering from the same inflection point issue? Might be worth doing a stat scaling graph for this scenario to see.

Feels like I'm flogging a horse that died, was raised into undeath, then mercifully dispatched again, but I'm still thinking that a lot of the weirdness here is the inflection point issue :)


Okay, I'll run some plots in the background while I'm at work today. They take a very long time, especially with 25k iterations turned on, which is why I didn't run them for every single test I've done so far. I'll do it for the ones you highlighted to see if the haste curve looks like a roller coaster.

kaynine wrote:Guys this talk of Divine Riposte is dangerous! I don't want to be the plate tank balanced around high avoidance. Anything but that!


I understand your fear here. It feels backwards to make haste more valuable by adding avoidance. That being said, even in the rough estimate for T19 mythic gear, Divine Riposte only boosts our parry from ~46% to ~51%. Which of the ideas in the OP (if any) do you think are viable, assuming you think haste is worth saving? I've tried most of them out and numerically they don't pan out (unless I've miscalculated, which is why I keep pushing for someone to double check my results). I am genuinely interested in what kind of solution you would prefer to Divine Riposte, because the more ideas we have, the better! It seems like it's the strongest candidate so far but we certainly haven't tried everything.
Ashaton
Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:10 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

I let the sims run while I was away, and came back to some very curious results. Finkum's intuition was correct, the haste plot for live mechanics is highly inconsistent. Here is the plot for T17M Live, set bonuses turned on. Recall that in this one, haste's value plummeted according to the scale factors.
Image
Source: https://www.dropbox.com/s/gnhj15xywvuyp7d/T17M_Live_Plots.html?dl=0
It's jumping all over the place, and at multiple points it even goes positive. After about +300, it evens out and rides along nicely with crit. It's certainly a much nicer result than the original sim values suggested, but that madness going on in the -300 to +300 range makes me concerned. If these results are to be trusted, then haste does pick up a little bit of value as gear scales higher but is still behind mastery and versatility.

Here is the plot for T17M but now haste is added to SotR's reduction. Set bonuses on.
Image
Source: https://www.dropbox.com/s/emneblhegow2z9o/T17M_SotR_Haste_DR_Plots.html?dl=0
It's a little bouncy but not as bad as live mechanics. At +250 haste, it becomes far too strong as Thels had initially feared. This idea won't work as tier levels get higher and higher.

Finally, here is the plot for T17M Divine Riposte (Parry), again with set bonuses turned on.
Image
Source: https://www.dropbox.com/s/45a4yakyxvleoq9/T17M_DRP_Plots.html?dl=0
It has the same problem; it looks great until +250 haste, then it gets out of control. These results suggest that Divine Riposte is actually way too powerful in the later tiers, which is consistent with the T18 and T19 estimations. I wonder what happens at the 250 to 300 mark that makes this jump so drastically?

If both Divine Riposte and the SotR change scale too well with the next tiers, then we are back to square one. We may have an option to save haste for Blackrock Foundry, but after that it would have to be toned down or that elusive, magical proc-on-melee-hits mechanic would have to be implemented. Blizzard has done changes like this in new tier patches before, but it's not really elegant. I'd bet that we would end up right back here at the start of the next tier to try and solve it again.

Alright, so what's next?
Ashaton
Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:41 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

In TankCast Ep. 2 Theck talks about buffing Sacred Duty, which is one of the first things I tried. Initially I found that we had to buff Sacred Duty to 75% in order to bring it close to mastery. However, I never ran plots for those sims and the latest results above make me suspicious of those results. So I'm going to re-run buffing Sacred Duty with plots this time and see how they look for different values.
Ashaton
Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:42 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

I ran Sacred Duty at 30% again, this time with the set bonuses turned on. Theck says that this should make haste on par with mastery but my results are different. I need help finding the cause!

Here's what I changed in the code to implement this:

Code: Select all
double paladin_t::composite_rating_multiplier( rating_e r ) const
{
  double m = player_t::composite_rating_multiplier( r );

  switch ( r )
  {
    case RATING_MELEE_HASTE:
    case RATING_RANGED_HASTE:
    case RATING_SPELL_HASTE:
      m *= 1.0 + passives.sacred_duty -> effectN( 1 ).percent() + 0.25; // Buffed Sacred Duty to 30%!
      break;
...


The T17H gear profile has 478 base haste. Multiplying that by 1.05 (original Sacred Duty) gives 501.9, and the live mechanics sim reports 502. Multiplying 478 by 1.3 gives 621.4, and my 30% Sacred Duty sim reports haste at 621 so I am sure this implementation is correct. However, looking at the scale factors and the plot doesn't show haste near mastery until +300 haste again, and even then it's right in the middle of mastery and versatility.

Image
Image
https://www.dropbox.com/s/mjjw67x03rknlyl/t17h_30p_sacred_duty.html?dl=0

This is the standard T17H gear set against the T17M TMI boss, 210000 damage, set bonuses turned on, 25000 iterations. I'm just trying to get to Theck's results where 30% Sacred Duty brings haste back up to mastery's level. What have I done wrong?
Ashaton
Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:21 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

Here are the stats for Sacred Duty at 40%. Same setup as the previous test. This one's particularly interesting when you look at the plots.

Image
Image
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rm5zu8lmhymna6m/t17h_40p_sacred_duty.html?dl=0

Haste doesn't quite work at T17H gear levels, but very soon after it catches up to mastery and literally holds neck and neck with it. I'll run a 40% SD sim with the T17M gear profile to confirm it. One thing that worries me is haste looks to be in a really bad spot for all the gear prior to the T17H stuff, and that will obviously take time to get. For the more experienced theorycrafters out there: does that mean if this change went through, we'd just suck it up until we got geared enough for haste to matter, and stack it anyway? Or would there be some radical shift where we'd be mastery-heavy until we got past iLvl 680, then switch to haste?

The 40% SD haste curve sims so well, I absolutely wish attunements were customizable per spec instead of being a fixed 5%. Wasn't that Blizzard's original intent with mastery? A "tweakable" stat for fine-tuning when things needed to be balanced? Why can't that be a thing with attunements now?

EDIT:

Confirmed with a T17M sim, that 40% Sacred Duty works at higher gear levels.
Image
https://www.dropbox.com/s/48gt052k9ns9i2g/t17m_40p_sacred_duty.html?dl=0

So Divine Riposte works at current gear levels but doesn't work at high ones. 40% Sacred Duty works at high gear levels but not current ones. How frustrating is that? I'm going to build a balanced mastery and haste set instead of the standard mastery-heavy one to see how that performs at lower and higher gear levels. Ideally, it would perform really well, because if haste were to be buffed, then we'd want more of it by the time we got to T17H gear anyway!
Ashaton
Mon Dec 01, 2014 10:29 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

I made a set that balances haste and mastery almost perfectly. According to SimC it has 1438 haste (20.10% raid buffed) and 1433 mastery (26.03% raid buffed). This is with 40% Sacred Duty which is why there's so much haste.

The set:
Head - Helmet of Guiding Light
Neck - Choker of Bestial Force
Shoulders - Pauldrons of Guiding Light
Chest - Battleplate of Guiding Light
Waist - Uktar's Belt of Chiming Rings
Legs - Legplates of Guiding Light
*Feet - Iron Bellow Sabatons
*Wrists - Bracers of Visceral Force
*Hands - Flamefury Gauntlets
*Finger1 - Seal of Unquenchable Flame
Finger2 - Spellbound Solium Band of Sorcerous Invincibility
Trinket1 - Blast Furnace Door
Trinket2 - Evergaze Arcane Eidolon
Back - Ravenous Greatcloak
Main Hand - Kromog's Brutal Fist
*Off Hand - Heart of the Clefthoof
* = different from the standard T17H set

Profile: https://www.dropbox.com/s/onmt8vsmijj21qg/Ashaton_T17H_Balanced.simc?dl=0
Results: https://www.dropbox.com/s/bl8cj1oj316bejt/custom_t17h_balanced_set.html?dl=0

After running it against the T17M boss, it has a TMI of 107.5k while the stock T17H set has a TMI of 106.7k. At the end of the day, that means my haste set sims slightly worse than the mastery-heavy set. However...
Image

Haste is back! :)

All it took was an extra 35% added to our attunement. I'm running a plot on this sim just to make triple sure that it won't scale out of control if we start stacking haste on our gear at higher item levels, but if it doesn't, then we win! If it does, I might need to tone it down from 40% but I'm determined to make this work since Divine Riposte didn't pan out.

Edit: Some more analysis. We have 8.08% more haste in the balanced set. With the stock set, we have 53.90% uptime on Faith Barricade (the 2pc set bonus). With the balanced set, we have 56.08% uptime. Even though we have 1.72% less block chance in the balanced set, we ended up blocking about the same number of attacks and I suspect it's because of the higher uptime on Faith Barricade. We went from 89.6 SotR casts up to 95.2, an extra 5.6 over the course of the fight!

It's not all good news though; let's compare the overall sim results between the two sets. The balanced set does 474 less DPS, has 732 higher DTPS, has 466 less HPS, and 800 higher TMI. The differences are small but they are not insignificant. Wearing this set instead of the stock set is an overall nerf to your survivability at iLvl 680, even with 40% Sacred Duty. The difference is small enough that I think I'd personally be alright with the haste set, because I like having a faster rotation. I'm sure that many of you disagree though. The point of this work isn't to make haste the best stat to stack, just to make it viable. For me, I think 40% Sacred Duty does just that. The plot won't be done for another hour or so and I have to get some rest. Tomorrow morning I'll post the results, then I'll do plots for T17M gear and the mythic equivalent of my haste set here - that ought to tell us how well 40% Sacred Duty scales.
Ashaton
Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:20 am

Re: The Case for Haste

The plots finished up overnight.

Remember from the initial 40% SD sim, with the stock T17H set, that mastery and haste are almost the same value as gear scales up. I ran the plot for stock T17M gear, expecting it to look the same as the plot for stock T17H gear.
Image
Source: https://www.dropbox.com/s/5l8nfyyofnv6ce6/t17m_40p_sd_mastery_plots.html?dl=0

It looks like the Divine Riposte plots - haste starts scaling really well at T18 and T19 levels. Keep in mind though that the stock gear set is very mastery heavy and very short on haste. So naturally, I wanted to know what happened when I plugged the mastery-haste balanced set in for T17H and T17M item levels.

T17H balanced gear set:
Image
Source: https://www.dropbox.com/s/sl59uvl3y5mdcm3/t17h_40p_sd_balanced_plots.html?dl=0

Recall from the first test, with stock T17H gear, that haste and mastery were even. At the same iLvl, with more haste on our gear, the relative value of haste drops off compared to mastery (but not by a lot). Haste is between mastery and versatility in this configuration.

From the data so far, it's starting to look like mastery is better than haste until somewhere between iLvl 680 and 695, at which point they become even and scale from there. So if that theory holds, then running the balanced gear set at T17M levels should value haste and mastery the same. So let's take a look at that sim and see how it performs.

T17M balanced gear set (ignore the T17H names, I forgot to change them in the graphs):
Image
Image
Source: https://www.dropbox.com/s/48xbyochjcz10af/t17m_40p_sd_balanced_plots.html?dl=0

That's exactly what we see - the stat scaling looks identical to the T17H stock set's scaling. Haste and mastery are paired together now that we have a higher iLvl and a lot of both. Also interesting to note is that this gear sims performs almost identically to the stock T17M gear. The balanced set does 447 less DPS, has 42 less DTPS, has 198 less HPS, and has a TMI of 95.0k instead of 94.9k.

Summary for 40% Sacred Duty stat scaling:
  • T17H mastery-heavy: Haste and mastery are the same value
  • T17H balanced: Mastery is better than haste
  • T17M mastery-heavy: Haste is more valuable than mastery
  • T17M balanced: Haste and mastery are the same value

I'm going to do plots for Divine Riposte with the balanced gear set, just out of curiosity. Maybe it will follow this trend, and having more haste on our gear makes it scale less drastically as iLvls increase.

I will also do tests with the T18 and T19 estimates in both gear configurations to see how it goes with even higher iLvls.
theckhd
Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:54 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

Thanks for running these Ashaton. I had hoped to be more directly involved with the thread, but got busier than I expected.

Bunch of thoughts, many of which have already been addressed. The ones that I don't think have:

1) I didn't say that buffing Sacred Duty to 30% would definitely fix it. I hadn't run any sims to test it yet, so I was just estimating based on the rating conversion. Under-estimating obviously, since it took ~40% to get there. But the concept was solid: if the reason haste is weak is due to rating conversion changes, buff rating conversions (either directly or indirectly).

2) In any event, as nice as the 40% SD is, I doubt it's going to fly just due to class symmetry. I'll propose it, but I don't think they'll be keen on the idea. That said, I agree that it's probably the most balanced of all of the solutions.

3) I think Divine Riposte could be made to work depending on how things go. While it's good, it's not necessarily too good. I don't think we require the sort of stat parity a DPS class has. Presumably other tanks don't anyway. That said, we have more knobs than you're using.

First, I think you're still using the parry version there, yes? Parry's DR coefficient is significantly more generous than dodge's. It's entirely possible that the Dodge version of Divine Riposte would not scale as well with gear, which might give us the perfect solution.

Second, diminishing returns coefficients are class-specific. Since we have no other sources of dodge, we could actually treat that coefficient as a free parameter and adjust it specifically to control the value of haste across gear levels.

I think that Divine Dodge, potentially with an adjusted dodge DR coefficient, should be our next attack vector. I can show you where those constants are in the sim if you need help finding them.

4) I think the SotR mitigation angle is good too, but has more problems. First, it's not that intuitive. Not that mastery->mitigation is, I guess, but mastery is more abstract. Haste has a very specific connotation, and "adds mitigation to SotR" isn't it. That said, you can probably make the same argument about Divine Dodge, so....

The other problem with the SotR mitigation angle is that it's harder to control than Divine Dodge. There's no obvious way to curb the scaling you're observing.

That said... there is one way it can be counteracted: successive nerfs. They've done this before, so it wouldn't be hard for them to e.g. reduce the scaling coefficients to 0.004 or 0.003 in the next tier to keep it from getting too strong. I just think it's a less elegant solution than Divine Dodge with appropriate DR. In my experience, the devs really like elegant solutions.

5) Rather than estimating gear sets, you can actually just scale the ilvl of the T17 gear sets. The scale_to_itemlevel command lets you set the item level of each item of the gear set. So for example:
Code: Select all
scale_to_itemlevel=700

will automatically scale each item to ilvl 700 when you sim, giving you appropriate stats for an ilvl 700 gear set. Of course you have to guess at the ilvls of future raid tiers, but that should be relatively easy to ballpark (and we don't need to be all that exact, to be honest).

6) I'm not really all that worried about the odd haste breakpoints. Again, i think they're just artifacts that should be ignored. That said, if you want to try and smooth them out yourself, there are already two settings in the sim that you can use to attempt that.

On the Options -> Globals tab, in the first column, there's a "Player Skill" selector. It defaults to Elite, which means the actors don't make mistakes. Dropping that to "Good" will cause the actor to occasionally slip up - there's a small chance they won't use an action that's available even though the APL says they should, which usually means they'll accidentally use a lower-priority ability. The further you drop that skill setting, the worse the player performs (and I suspect, the smoother that haste curve gets).

Also on the Options -> Globals tab, in the third column, is a "World Lag" setting. If you read the tooltip, this artificially extends the cooldown of skills by a random (normally-distributed) amount based on the selection. Adjusting this should vary the fillers available somewhat (the /wait lines after CS and J should maintain the CS-J-X-CS-X-J-CS-X-X cycle though).

Even though we may not be interested in results that are extremely "sloppy", seeing what those plots look like may tell us something about those haste anomalies.

One thing I intend to do is add an "advanced" Scale Factor calculation mode. Instead of calculating Scale Factors from two sims (one at +0, one at +350; or +/- 175 if you have Center Scale Data selected), it would run seven or nine at intervals (e.g. 0, +/- 100, +/- 200, +/-300) and average the results. This should give a more representative Scale Factor since it's essentially just sampling more points on the plot.
Ashaton
Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:19 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

Well, my server is hosed for the time being so let's talk about some more numbers! I brought 6 new plots back with me from the office today. First off, let's analyze how Divine Riposte (Parry) does with the balanced gear set. We already know it looks really good with the mastery set. We also know that if we scale the mastery set up to higher iLvls, haste becomes way too strong. In a perfect world, simming it with the balanced set would bring haste back in line - after all, if you have a lot of it, then stacking even more should have less of an effect, right?

Divine Riposte (Parry), T17H and T17M Balanced Gear Sets:
Image
Image
Heroic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/1xqc94z5pfgccbg/t17h_drp_balanced.html?dl=0
Mythic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/f18s3wd6bu4whma/t17m_drp_balanced.html?dl=0

Nope, the more haste we have, the more we want. That's exponential growth and it means Divine Riposte doesn't work after this tier because it's too good. I think we can put this one to bed.


Next up, I wanted to look at how the balanced gear set performs at the T18 estimate levels with 40% Sacred Duty enabled. My last analysis suggested that after T18 and up, haste and mastery should be very close in value. To be consistent with the previous T18 sims, I first ran the T18 balanced gear trials with the set bonuses turned off.
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Heroic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/t5ta73334ktna5t/t18h_40p_sd_balanced.html?dl=0
Mythic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/jxvun5inhg49ohy/t18m_40p_sd_balanced.html?dl=0

Haste starts getting bouncy again, but for the most part it hangs out in third place between versatility and crit. That's no good, we want it to be tied with mastery (or at least close to it)! I remembered from the previous round of tests that Faith Barricade (or 2pc bonus) in particular seemed to really help haste due to that extra block chance, so I turned the tier bonuses back on to see how much of an impact they have.
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Heroic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/cils0m682xz5fns/t18h_40p_sd_balanced_tier_bonus.html?dl=0
Mythic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/5f77e0evy1fv5fa/t18m_40p_sd_balanced_tier_bonus.html?dl=0

It helps a bit, haste is now tied with versatility (but still quite bouncy)... but mastery pulls ahead of it once again. Please keep in mind that these are really rough estimates - I could have the iLvl wrong, the gear stats are certainly incorrect, and T18 will have a different set bonus and different trinkets. That being said, it looks like at higher tier levels, haste may have trouble keeping pace with mastery if 40% Sacred Duty was implemented. Now, second place is certainly better than dead last here so it's not really a loss. To compare their actual performance, I pitted the balanced gear set against the stock mastery-heavy gear set at T18 levels.

T18H Mastery Gear: 32299 DPS, 44727 DTPS, 37267 HPS, 122.8k TMI
T18H Balanced Gear: 31660 DPS, 45830 DTPS, 36992 HPS, 124.2k TMI

T18M Mastery Gear: 38035 DPS, 37386 DTPS, 42718 HPS, 104.4k TMI
T18M Balanced Gear: 37486 DPS, 38573 DTPS, 42523 HPS, 105.8k TMI

The balanced gear performs worse in both cases. It's close, but as was the case with T17, it's still worse. I suspect if we pushed Sacred Duty up to 50%, we'd see it balance back out (but then at T17 haste would be too strong).

One thing that bugs me is the inconsistency between the plots for T17 and T18. T18 gear has 600 more haste than T17, so I'd expect the T18 graph to mirror what we see in the T17 graph at the +600 stat range. T17 had haste and mastery even, but T18 shows that haste is slightly worse than mastery across the board. I think at this point I will let more experienced theorycrafters interpret the data because I'm getting confused by it. I'm still happy to run whatever sims you guys would like to see, so just let me know what's on your mind!
Ashaton
Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:30 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

Hey Theck, thanks for stopping by. Glad you had some time to add your thoughts!

theckhd wrote:1) I didn't say that buffing Sacred Duty to 30% would definitely fix it. I hadn't run any sims to test it yet, so I was just estimating based on the rating conversion. Under-estimating obviously, since it took ~40% to get there. But the concept was solid: if the reason haste is weak is due to rating conversion changes, buff rating conversions (either directly or indirectly).

Yep, just a misunderstanding on my part.

theckhd wrote:2) In any event, as nice as the 40% SD is, I doubt it's going to fly just due to class symmetry. I'll propose it, but I don't think they'll be keen on the idea. That said, I agree that it's probably the most balanced of all of the solutions.

I agree that they won't do it because of symmetry, but I think they would be well advised to make attunements adjustable per spec for precisely this reason, much like their original intent was with mastery when it was first introduced. That, or get rid of attunements entirely of course and give us a different passive that buffed haste more without any political consequences.

theckhd wrote:3) I think Divine Riposte could be made to work depending on how things go. While it's good, it's not necessarily too good. I don't think we require the sort of stat parity a DPS class has. Presumably other tanks don't anyway. That said, we have more knobs than you're using.
First, I think you're still using the parry version there, yes? Parry's DR coefficient is significantly more generous than dodge's. It's entirely possible that the Dodge version of Divine Riposte would not scale as well with gear, which might give us the perfect solution.

Yes, I was using the Parry version because I mistakenly thought it would be less powerful than dodge. Jackinthegreen corrected me though, so I will make this my next priority. Parry scaled out of control way too quickly, hopefully dodge doesn't have that problem. Aside from buffing Sacred Duty, this seems like the easiest way to fix haste. I'll let you know if I can't figure out where the class-specific modifiers are for dodge, but so far the code has been really easy to navigate. Props to you guys for making it so clean.

theckhd wrote:5) Rather than estimating gear sets, you can actually just scale the ilvl of the T17 gear sets. The scale_to_itemlevel command lets you set the item level of each item of the gear set.

This is actually what I ended up doing once I couldn't make the explicit stats settings work and read up on the Simcraft docs, it's been very helpful.
theckhd
Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:39 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

I don't think you should be so quick to write off Divine Riposte (Parry) either. Especially because I'm not sure that's exponential scaling in the first place. It's clearly super-linear, but it could just be e.g. weakly quadratic or something else that's reasonably well-behaved. We'd need to run plots with a longer range (e.g. to +3000 or more, and we could skip the -3000 part to save time) to see how it behaves in the long run. Remember that Bonus Armor is way ahead of haste still here, as long as haste doesn't overtake that it should be acceptable. Haste being better than stamina isn't inherently a problem.

Also keep in mind there's a natural soft-cap at 50% haste, so that super-linear scaling can't go on forever.

That said, I do think Divine Dodge is a better choice, simply because it gives finer control over that super-linearity.
Ashaton
Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:55 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

I don't want to come off as a fanatic who lobbies for any solution that makes haste blatantly overpowered, so I've been trying to play it safe and keep it balanced with mastery. Chasing something as strong as DR (P) made me worried that people wouldn't take the thread seriously. I'll ease off the control factor a little bit and see what DR (P) and DR (D) can offer. I'm hesitant to let haste overtake stamina though, because that might lead to situations where we pick up gear from older tiers just because it has more haste on it. That's never a good thing.

On another note, plots take about 1.5 hours to run at 25,000 iterations even with 32-cores-worth of idle hypervisors being re-purposed specifically to simming Paladins. I feel like we're running out of time to get Blizzard a viable solution so I want to really crank these out for review. Bumping the range up to +3000 with a step size of 50 is going to take a lot of time, so let's plan the sims ahead before I just start queueing up whatever I feel like at the time.

How about for starters, we do T17H and T17M DR (D) with both gear sets? Also, what's your opinion on the set bonuses... leave them on or take them off?
theckhd
Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:49 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

We have plenty of time, don't worry about that. The important thing is to generate as much useful data as possible so we have things we can point at to support arguments. The existence of this thread in the first place (with the data of course) is really all I need on that front.

That said, you can probably save quite a bit of time on the sims by using the "Auto" setting for "Target Error" (on Options->Globals). This will run the sim until the desired accuracy level is reached, and stop then.

You can manually set the target error selection, of course, but in my experience the Auto setting (i.e. the built-in default) is fine for plots.

The set bonuses really shouldn't be a huge factor one way or the other. I'd probably leave them off, certainly for T18+ sims.
Finkum
Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:52 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

theckhd wrote:6) I'm not really all that worried about the odd haste breakpoints. Again, I think they're just artifacts that should be ignored. That said, if you want to try and smooth them out yourself, there are already two settings in the sim that you can use to attempt that...


What I see as the main problem with the haste inflection points, whatever their origin, is that it makes it really difficult to evaluate how effective any of Ashaton's proposed fixes are, as for any given gear-set/mechanic combination we can't be sure if the stat value is broadly accurate (unless a stat scaling graph is also created, which I gather is very time-intensive).

As such I'd be in favour of using any of the methods you suggest to potentially suppress the inflection points, even if it requires us to assume slightly suboptimal play/latency/whatever, just so we can be confident that the stat value for haste won't radically change if we e.g. get 10 more haste rating :)
Ashaton
Tue Dec 02, 2014 9:41 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

Setting the target errors to Auto made things sim about 3x as fast! Wow!

I'm running into a size issue again though, the plots are too big to fit in a GET request to the Google Charts API. I'll look and see if they accept POSTs or something without a size constraint. If not, what's the recommended way to generate the graphs short of stuffing them in Excel?

Edit: Ok, they do have POST support. When all of this is said and done, I'd like to change Simcraft to use those instead of GETs and commit that if it's alright with you guys. In the mean time I'll write up a script to do the conversion.
theckhd
Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:27 am

Re: The Case for Haste

We're actually going to be converting over to highcharts eventually anyway. Google Charts has an EOL some time next year (spring, I think?).

If you really want to help with charts, hop in simulationcraft IRC and talk to reia about helping with the wod-highcharts branch.

That said, for now, remember that if you want to go +3000, you don't need to sample as finely either. We don't need info every 50 or 100 stat, every 200-500 would be sufficient to determine broad-range scaling.
theckhd
Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:36 am

Re: The Case for Haste

Finkum wrote:
theckhd wrote:6) I'm not really all that worried about the odd haste breakpoints. Again, I think they're just artifacts that should be ignored. That said, if you want to try and smooth them out yourself, there are already two settings in the sim that you can use to attempt that...


What I see as the main problem with the haste inflection points, whatever their origin, is that it makes it really difficult to evaluate how effective any of Ashaton's proposed fixes are, as for any given gear-set/mechanic combination we can't be sure if the stat value is broadly accurate (unless a stat scaling graph is also created, which I gather is very time-intensive).

As such I'd be in favour of using any of the methods you suggest to potentially suppress the inflection points, even if it requires us to assume slightly suboptimal play/latency/whatever, just so we can be confident that the stat value for haste won't radically change if we e.g. get 10 more haste rating :)


I think that in general, scaling plots will always be preferable. Especially because there are haste breakpoints that do matter (50% being an obvious example, several more if you take Seraphim). It's the same reason it's usually better to know the functional form of a relationship rather than the first derivative at one point (which is all a Scale Factor is in the first place).

Again, once I implement "advanced mode" scale factors, it'll help somewhat, but that will still take more time than a simple single-point Scale Factor sim (though probably less than a full plot).

Also note that this isn't specific to paladins, necessarily. It's just a hazard of dealing with perfect (or near-perfect) play. But you'll be hard-pressed to find any sort of agreement on how well a real player plays, because few people want to admit they aren't "Elite". :P
Ashaton
Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:57 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

I let the T17, 18 and 19 sims run today but realized when I looked at the results that I forgot to modify the damage the boss does for the T18 and T19 ones, so they can't be used. Disaster! Fun fact, when we have T18 gear and we fight a T17 boss, stamina becomes our worst stat by a huge margin.

I do have the T17 ones though. This is for Divine Riposte (Dodge), which I'm just going to call Divine Dodge from now on. The fact that we don't have another source of dodge, meaning we can play with our coefficient however we want to balance this, is really exciting.

To start, here are the plots for the standard mastery-heavy set. In the source files I embedded the plots as Base64 data because the raw data doesn't fit in a GET, so the files are a tiny bit larger. Also, for all of these sims, the set bonuses have been disabled.
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Heroic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/cq61izza05p5lpe/t17h_mastery_drd.html?dl=0
Mythic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/7bqnfd2pf4lhu0h/t17m_mastery_drd.html?dl=0

Right - haste is really, really good with Divine Dodge. We know this. It's linear all the way from -500 to +3000, just a very steep line. I didn't add stamina to the plot, but I probably should next time for comparison. It doesn't beat bonus armor so if that's our criteria for being in the green, then there you go.

Here are the plots for the balanced gear set:
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Heroic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/f92wbfd0dt3ou62/t17h_balanced_drd.html?dl=0
Mythic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/gc4zc4o5jkr9kl8/t17m_balanced_drd.html?dl=0

Haste is less powerful than it is in the mastery-heavy set, but it's still on top. Theck, if I understand your argument correctly... then these plots are acceptable (even though haste has a huge advantage), as long as it doesn't make us overpowered, right?

Here are the stat comparisons between the two gear sets, and the results for Live mechanics as well.
T17H Mastery (Live): 21628 dps, 32207 dtps, 22468 hps (10081 aps), 109.9k TMI
T17H Mastery (DD): 21589 dps, 30912 dtps, 22398 hps (10040 aps), 108.5k TMI
T17H Balanced (DD): 20877 dps, 30584 dtps, 21670 hps (9818 aps), 108.5k TMI

T17M Mastery (Live): 25097 dps, 28279 dtps, 25589 hps (11376 aps), 97.8k TMI
T17M Mastery (DD): 25034 dps, 26862 dtps, 25468 hps (11295 aps), 96.2k TMI
T17M Balanced (DD): 24123 dps, 26539 dtps, 24577 hps (11026 aps), 96.1k TMI

With Divine Dodge, both sets sim pretty much the same and both beat the live sims by a tiny amount.

I don't know if haste is too powerful here or not, I will let you guys interpret it accordingly. In the mean time I'll start the T18 and T19 sets, hopefully they'll be done by the morning. I'm also going to take Theck's suggestion of bumping up the step size so I can use the GET route instead of scripting a bunch of POSTs.
Ashaton
Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:47 pm

Re: The Case for Haste

Just finished up my first run at Highmaul, so far it's a lot of fun! I really missed new progression, over a year of Siege definitely caused some burnout. Tectus took us a while, but we finally brought him down and I got Tectus' Beating Heart.

Anyway, back on topic, I am now doing plots with 250 point increments instead of 50 and have added Stamina to the mix. They go a lot faster than the 50 point increments obviously - about 45 min per sim. Here are the results for the T18 estimations. To refresh, T18H is the T17H gear set but scaled up to iLvl 717 and T18M is the T17M gear set but scaled up to iLvl 732 via the built-in scale_to_itemlevel command. The boss does 391000 damage instead of 210000. Set bonuses are turned off.

Mastery-heavy stock set:
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Heroic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/p7l6jcp6quv1d5r/t18h_mastery_drd.html?dl=0
Mythic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/o989b5h49vupk0h/t18m_mastery_drd.html?dl=0

In heroic gear, haste is a little weaker than stamina and fairly high above everything else. In mythic gear, haste crushes everything except bonus armor. If the criteria for success is that haste just has to be worse than bonus armor, then we're still winning (but I maintain that this seems like haste is too valuable). Then again, haste could just be so good because the stock gear set is very low on it. Let's see if the balanced gear set, with lots more haste, lowers the value to a more reasonable level.

Balanced gear set:
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Heroic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ggsv1zfngd6yf7f/t18h_balanced_drd.html?dl=0
Mythic: https://www.dropbox.com/s/negkpop5hc8zf90/t18m_balanced_drd.html?dl=0

In heroic gear, haste is riding right alongside mastery and the other stats. This is the kind of curve I like to see! It's still strong, but it's not totally dominating everything else. The mythic gear set is also quite clean, with haste at the top of the pack but the other stats following closely behind. Interestingly enough, in this configuration, stamina actually falls in line with the other stats instead of being leagues ahead like it usually is. Bonus armor is outrageously powerful as always.

Obligatory numbers comparison:

T18H Mastery (Live): 31254 dps, 50014 dtps, 36348 hps (16686 aps), 127.6k TMI
T18H Mastery (DD): 31133 dps, 47101 dtps, 36120 hps (16533 aps), 125.1k TMI
T18H Balanced (DD): 30011 dps, 46203 dtps, 34886 hps (16250 aps), 124.9k TMI

T18M Mastery (Live): 36807 dps, 42490 dtps, 41732 hps (19000 aps), 109.4k TMI
T18M Mastery (DD): 36664 dps, 39392 dtps, 41412 hps (18806 aps), 106.6k TMI
T18M Balanced (DD): 35348 dps, 38533 dtps, 40060 hps (18386 aps), 106.2k TMI

The balanced gear set is ever-so-slightly ahead of the mastery-heavy gear set. Both of them are a bit stronger than the live sim, so Divine Dodge is a small buff. Interestingly, the mastery sets do more DPS than the haste sets! I didn't expect that result, but there it is.