And note that we will
always have 10% spell haste from SoI, and the raid spell haste buff, plus any haste on our gear. So for us it will always be 800*spell_haste absorption per second.
Dancing Steel is going to be better than River's Song. The uptimes are similar, but DS gives you parry (which in most gear sets is diminished less than dodge), plus some DPS, plus some SoI healing.
Correcting some of the math on Windsong: Since each buff is independent, let's take the best-case situation where you get 2 procs that do not overlap (such that you won't "waste" half of a haste buff by getting another haste proc, for example). It's 1500 rating for 12s out of 60s, for an average effect of 300 rating. You get 2 procs per minute, so your average effect is 600 rating, but it's random what you get. Since we ignore crit, that means you actually get 600*2/3 = 400 average rating from the enchant. Note also that half of that rating is mastery and half is haste. And remember, in terms of raw TDR, haste is abysmal. Putting my current stats into
my spreadsheet, I get the following stat weights:
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Armor 0.8358
Parry 0.4324
Dodge 0.4339
Strength 0.4224
Mastery 0.4380
Hit 0.2248
Expertise 0.1445
Haste 0.1722
So haste is about 0.1722/0.4380=39.3% as good as mastery for TDR. Having 200 haste and 200 mastery is roughly equivalent to having 278.6 mastery. Using your conversion of uptime*rating/600, that's only 0.232% reduced damage taken even at 50% uptime on SotR. However, there's an error here too - this is absolute damage taken, not relative damage taken. To correct it, we'd need to divide by the amount we actually take (i.e. if we only take 70% of the damage that's coming at us, it's 0.00232/0.3=0.0077, or ~0.8% relative damage reduction).
In practice, this number is about right. With my stat weights, my TDR is around 71.5%, or 28.5% of raw boss damage taken. So, using our guess of about 0.8% relative damage reduction, how much DTPS must we be seeing in logs for this to equal Colossus absorption?
It should be (0.8%*DTPS)=880, or about 110k DTPS. Note that I've included the free 10% spell haste we get from SoI there, but not other haste contributions (spell haste raid buff, haste on gear, bloodlust, etc.). In practice the number will be a little higher. For example, in my gear set I have 4.14% haste, for 14.14% total before raid buffs and 14.847% after raid buffs, which means I'd be getting around 1188 HPS from colossus, raising the threshold to 148.5k DTPS.
So in 5.1, Windsong will
definitely not be the best TDR enchant. Colossus has it beat by a fair bit, and even during high-damage-intake situations they'll be about equal. As of right now, Colossus' proc rate is a little lower - on our last Stone Guard 25H kill, it procced 34 times for 272k absorption in about 7 minutes, for about 650 HPS. That's still well ahead of Windsong's TDR performance.
In other words,
if you are choosing Windsong for reasons of TDR, you're doing it wrong.
Now, you might argue that we're not gearing for hit/exp/haste/mastery for TDR, and you'd be right about that. We're gearing for them because it gives us greater control over our survivability. But I think that's makes for an even weaker argument for Windsong. What gives you more reliable damage smoothing: an 8k absorb every 10-12 seconds, or an uncontrollable proc that may or may not be up when you need it, and has a chance of giving you back-to-back crit procs that don't help you?
Personally, I'd take the 8k absorb. Because my usual death scenario is a 5-8 second window where I'm bursted down without enough healing. There's a very good chance that I'll have one Colossus proc in that window. There's a much smaller chance that I have a useful Windsong proc covering that window. Admittedly, if it
does line up, it's a much stronger defensive effect than an 8k absorb, but I'd rather have the 8k absorb 80% of the time than the much larger effect 25% of the time (roughly estimating, 12s*(4/3)/60s=26.6%).