Politics (formerly Election 2012)

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fivelives » Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:24 am

So wait. Ukranians were openly treating ethnic Russians like shit, with the backing of those in power, then those in power get forcibly ousted and now ethnic Russians in Ukraine are getting scared and calling their big brother in to help?

If that's what's going on - and I'm not sure that's it, I haven't had time to really follow this story - then this is a really fucked up no-win situation. The only thing Russia could possibly do would be to offer repatriation to all of the Russians in Ukraine. And that would probably break their economy, as those refugees (for lack of a better term that means the exact same thing but without all the negative connotations attached) would be a massive drain on an economy that's already teetering on the brink.

At least this is a pretty good explanation of the timing behind Russian leadership coming out as being anti-gay to the point of extremism. Compared to Russia's stance on homosexuality, a little neighborly invasion isn't sparking NEARLY as much worldwide controversy.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Kal » Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:37 pm

Saw this on reddit:

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:37 pm

So wait. Ukranians were openly treating ethnic Russians like shit, with the backing of those in power, then those in power get forcibly ousted and now ethnic Russians in Ukraine are getting scared and calling their big brother in to help?


Actually the last president was trying to defuse tensions that had existed since the fall of the USSR, so he expanded some of their rights. Now those rights, among others, have been taken away.

I would say they are being opportunistic, not just scarred. They don't like being in Ukraine much and they see a chance to leave that country and join Russia now with the government in chaos.

The only thing Russia could possibly do would be to offer repatriation to all of the Russians in Ukraine


It could take those provinces that have a Russian majority, since well those provinces ( especially Crimea which is autonomous ) want to be part of Russia.

Who is going to stop them exactly? NATO when a third of the EU's gas comes from Russia, yeah a war with Russia would be quite popular at home in an EU which has experienced serious economic hardship, and the US won't go in alone.

Ukraine? Laughable, despite the media bullshit the Ukranian army is weak, badly equipped and badly trained. The Georgians were in a far better shape when they took on Russia and they lost in days.

Furthermore given how the new leadership came to power some parts of the army are defecting.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:14 pm

Io.Draco wrote:Ukraine? Laughable, despite the media bullshit the Ukranian army is weak, badly equipped and badly trained. The Georgians were in a far better shape when they took on Russia and they lost in days.

Furthermore given how the new leadership came to power some parts of the army are defecting.


I guess Kramer was prophetic.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby KysenMurrin » Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:29 pm

There are also significant populations in those regions who do not want to join Russia...
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Shoju » Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:50 pm

Sounds like something the US needs to just STAY THE EFF AWAY FROM.

But, I've never been a fan of the Team America, World Police that the Federal Government likes to portray us as.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:54 pm

Shoju wrote:Sounds like something the US needs to just STAY THE EFF AWAY FROM.

But, I've never been a fan of the Team America, World Police that the Federal Government likes to portray us as.


Agreed.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:00 pm

Shoju wrote:Sounds like something the US needs to just STAY THE EFF AWAY FROM.

But, I've never been a fan of the Team America, World Police that the Federal Government likes to portray us as.

The funny thing is in this case the US doesn't want to get involved, but has a treaty to honour. This is the one time the US is *supposed* to intervene.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:29 pm

I'd let NATO say, ok we're going in, before the US taking the initiative.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:39 pm

KysenMurrin wrote:There are also significant populations in those regions who do not want to join Russia...


True, but close to 80% of all Crimeans are native Russian speakers. I don't expect any armed conflict until the referendum in Crimea on the 30th of March where I suspect it will ask to join Russia or at least be an independent country by an overwhelming majority.

EDIT: Or who knows we might see the war itself start in just 2 hours when the Russian ultimatum to Ukranian forces in Crimea expires.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Paxen » Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:45 am

Klaudandus wrote:I'd let NATO say, ok we're going in, before the US taking the initiative.


NATO doesn't have a treaty with the Ukraine, the US and Britain has. (And Russia!)
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Paxen » Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:48 am

Io.Draco wrote:True, but close to 80% of all Crimeans are native Russian speakers. I don't expect any armed conflict until the referendum in Crimea on the 30th of March where I suspect it will ask to join Russia or at least be an independent country by an overwhelming majority.


Crimea has only 58% russians. They also have no legal standing to secede on their own. Finally, Crimea has 12% crimean tatars, who live no other place and have every reason to detest russians.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Io.Draco » Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:04 am

I said Russian speakers, not ethnic Russians, there's quite a difference between the two. Being ethnic Ukranian or Tatar doesn't mean you can't use Russian as your primary language. Close to 90% of Crimeans voted for Yanukovich.

The Tatars are also divided, despite media beliefs there are a number of them who don't support the government in Kiev. Of course most are against Russia due to fears there will be discrimination against them. Putin should extend an olive branch to them, unless he is stupid to actually discriminate against them.

As for legal standing, the Crimean parliament has no legal standing either. What with them taking power in a coup ( and yes it was a coup when they forced the president to flee using armed force after tearing up the deal the opposition leaders had made with him ), replacing Supreme Court judges and passing laws while being threatened by armed far right members just outside the Parliament building who stand guard 24/7.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Shoju » Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:43 am

Putin just seems like a crazy man, the more that I read. I'm just not sure what to make of the guy.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby KysenMurrin » Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:01 am

Currently Russia appears to be simultaneously claiming they were invited to send in the troops to protect people, and that they haven't actually sent any troops and the forces in Crimea are local self-defense groups.
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