A question on warriors TMI

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A question on warriors TMI

Postby Authoritah » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:57 am

Im not sure if this has been answered somewhere but i've looked for hours and couldnt find anything specific about it.
as i understand the best damage smoothing stat for a warrior is going full mastery, and though avoidance got alot better in 5.4 due to extra damage etc, i read everywhere that its not better for tmi and smoothing.

but i was thinking if (on bosses at least when vengeance is fairly ramped up) with a full avoidance build and mindless spamming of shield barrier wouldnt you eventually reach a point where you would no longer take a full hit from the boss ? just in my opinion an all absorbing shield interacting with 100% avoidance must be OP with high item level, if you are almost certain that you would avoid at least every 3 attacks, it would prolly be possible to have a shield barrier up erverytime you didnt avoid. and with the way that i think in theory an avoidance build gives a better rage flow it should be even more viable.

so my question is if it would be possible to reach a cap where you would be ALMOST certain that you would never get a full attack ever, unless you are very very unlucky and might get 1½ full attack wich would be fine as well. cause block sucks in my opinion cause it looses viability as you gain more avoidance wich will happen no matter what due to higher ilvls. so in this scenario, even IF you got an attack where you didnt avoid or absorb, you would still have a chance to block it though a much lower chance ofc. sry for my bad english
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Re: A question on warriors TMI

Postby theckhd » Tue Oct 15, 2013 5:33 pm

The problem is that you're never "almost certain" to avoid anything. Even if you get 40%+ avoidance, you will still take 3-in-a-row sequences quite regularly.
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Re: A question on warriors TMI

Postby Authoritah » Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:17 pm

We should Be able to get over 50% avoidance though wich Would make the estimate closer to 2 hits in a row, But im not very smart with math. Is there some Way to sim it out? Cause even though maybe you could take 1 max 2 non mitigated hits wich i Think Would rarely happen and with the right amount of stamina not matter that the TDR Would Be worth it?
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Re: A question on warriors TMI

Postby Fridmarr » Wed Oct 16, 2013 8:42 pm

The formula for that is simple. If you are trying to figure out your odds of consecutive events where each event has the same percentage chance of occurring, it's just that chance raised to the power of the number of consecutive events.

So if you want to figure out the odds of a boss hitting you X times in a row it's (1 - Avoidance )^X.

So at 50% and 3 hits it's: (1-.5)^3 = .125 (or 12.5%) meaning at 50% avoidance you'll take 3 consecutive full hits 12.5% of the time.
2 consecutive hits would be (1-.5)^2 = .25 or 25% of the time.
At 40% for 3 hits it's(1-.4)^3 = 21.6%
40% for 2 hits (1-.4)^2=36%
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Re: A question on warriors TMI

Postby theckhd » Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:15 am

Authoritah wrote:We should Be able to get over 50% avoidance though wich Would make the estimate closer to 2 hits in a row, But im not very smart with math. Is there some Way to sim it out? Cause even though maybe you could take 1 max 2 non mitigated hits wich i Think Would rarely happen and with the right amount of stamina not matter that the TDR Would Be worth it?


If you look at Fridmarr's math, you'll see that even at 50% avoidance, you will have a very high chance of taking 3+ unmitigated attacks in a row. Keep in mind that even something that only has a 1% chance of occurring will happen many times over the course of a night of raiding, and will probably happen at least once during each pull of an encounter.

Now of course, one has to add mechanics into that - things like Shield Block and Shield Barrier help reduce the number of those full attacks, which is the whole point of active mitigation. It's a more deterministic, on-demand way to mitigate damage.

But the problem with avoidance is that it simply isn't deterministic. There's no guarantee that you won't take 6 full attacks in a row even with 75%+ avoidance (unreachable AFAIK). It will get less likely, sure, but eventually it will happen, and you'll faceplant. That's why most players don't even worry about TDR and focus on smoothness of damage intake. Eliminating those potential N-in-a-row spikes is what makes a tank easy to heal. TDR doesn't really matter in the current game environment, because healers don't run out of mana healing a tank anymore.
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