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Politics (formerly Election 2012)

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Fri Mar 15, 2013 9:28 pm

Nooska wrote:In my opinion, because of the secrecy of the preventive measures and us not knowing what may be prevented (this goes both ways, we have nothing to sustain the idea that the intelligence communities are actually warding off terrorists attacks), means the measures are draconian and an undue limitation of the clear majority of persons (citizens or otherwise) and only serve to give the state more control - control of the kind anyone should be wary, especially when its given to democratically elected persons "for the betterment of us all" or some such drivel (without invoking Godwins law, I'll refer to the fact that Hitler rose to power through legal means (abuse of them, granted, but still legal)).

you're absolutely right. 9/11 scared the bejeezus out of people who sold their freedoms at every opportunity to protect themselves from terrorism. The regime at the time, though nominally in favour of a weak central government and strong state governments, took advantage of the fear to place incredible power in the hands of the President and even created an SS-like agencey called Homeland Security with incredible powers of its own.

The TSA's scope and budget expanded by several orders of magnitude, creating a dog-and-pony show that passed for security but has repeatedly been breached by undercover "testers" who were able to smuggle a range of items from knives to loaded handguns into "secured" areas of airports.

New concepts emerged, like the ability to put people on "no fly" lists, and to detain indefinitely people named as "enemy combatants" without any need for judicial process.

Repeated bills have been brought into congress to limit internet access to US citizens, although thankfully none of them have passed. The language of the proposed internet limitations has been so broad that any site could be shut down without judicial approval or review.

The government has been granted the power to detain undesirables and limit travel, and have come close to limiting access to information as well. The potential for abuse is rather extreme. If a Hitler-like individual was to rise to power in the US, the mechanics are already in place to legally create a Nazi-like state. Given the right catalyst, the US people would go along with it, too.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Jabari » Sat Mar 16, 2013 5:31 pm

We've just gone from "Doomed" to "Well and Truly Fucked"...

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Cyprus+cooperative+banks+close+amid+depositor+concern+over/8109801/story.html


Love the non-answer that the Eurogroup prez gave, here, to the question whether the same thing could happen elsewhere in Europe:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-16/socgens-post-mortem-cyprus-unique-stability-levy-aka-deposit-confiscation
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby fuzzygeek » Sat Mar 16, 2013 7:03 pm

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Jabari » Sun Mar 17, 2013 11:28 am

fuzzygeek wrote:Yowza.

Yup.

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2013/03/a-major-major-game-changer.html

Update #4 is ... interesting. You following this Passionario? How is this going over in Russia?
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Sun Mar 17, 2013 11:39 am

Update IV

^
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My face when
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby fuzzygeek » Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:22 pm

I would be very curious to see if there is data on bank moves made by government affiliates and their families just prior to the announcement.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:26 pm

fuzzygeek wrote:I would be very curious to see if there is data on bank moves made by government affiliates and their families just prior to the announcement.


I know regular people were taking their money out of the banks, but cant remember who was criticizing them... was it the gov't or the banks?
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Darielle » Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:48 pm

I will note that I only mentioned expedient. "Required" and "necessary" are different arguments, and, some I would presume would trigger some debate prior to actually doing stuff, as for something to be required or necessary, you have to demonstrate that. Being expedient is simply a matter of being the easiest way to do something.


You can, however, justify or at worst case manipulate "expedience" in the form of "requirement" or "necessity" with pretty good support.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Aubade » Mon Mar 18, 2013 2:08 am

Oh wow. That's all I have to say to that. Wow.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Jabari » Mon Mar 18, 2013 9:16 am

Something related. Pulled from a comment at market-ticker in one of the related posts:

"One of my prep school classmates is one of the head lawyers of the FDIC. I called him tonight and he was completely briefed and aware of the Cyprus situation. When I mentioned the ticker to him, he laughed because he said the FDIC, FSLIC and SIPC have no jurisdiction nor provide any protection against taxes or fees, which Gen kind of implied. A bank run, of course is a different story, but the government can tax you to death and the FDIC, FSLIC and SIPC will just stand by and watch. They also will not cover you for a seizure that is related to a crime, like fraud, terrorism or narcotics violations."

No, I don't have any good suggestions. Everything is a risk at this point, including simple deposit accounts at the bank. I will note that what Cyprus did effectively makes the $100 in your hand potentially between 7 and 10% more valuable than the one in the bank (or in 401k, or a stock brokerage account, etc).

Edit: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=218845

Edit2: DHS has recently been buying ammo. LOTS of ammo. Like, 1.5 BILLION rounds of ammo. Related?
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Passionario » Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:08 am

Jabari wrote:Update #4 is ... interesting. You following this Passionario? How is this going over in Russia?


The fact that Russian government is prepared to use military force to defend tax evasion and money laundering should tell you everything there is to know about Russian politics. :(
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Cogglamp » Mon Mar 18, 2013 8:20 pm

I can't help but LOL at the knee jerk reactions by economists. This has been festering for months and people were taking a naked bet that they'd get bailed at par. Guess what, that bet came up a loser. If you didn't see it coming, you were willfully ignorant. You have an oversized banking environment that's murky at best. The ECB is dealing with bad information and I'd bet this is a shot across the bow to make them clean up their game.

Cyprus is a tax haven that bears no resemblance to any other European country. Cyprus banks own much of the sovereign debt so you can't replicate any other Euro zone bailout. Let's stop with the comparisons to Spain and Italy and anywhere else. They're laughable. A precedent won't be made here. It's a specialized case that is being treated as such.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Jabari » Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:36 am

Uh huh.

http://m.guardiannews.com/world/2013/mar/18/cyprus-bank-bailout-nicos-germany
(Check the last paragraph)

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1303/S00306/national-planning-cyprus-style-solution-for-new-zealand.htm

Now, the "oversized banking environment" bit is correct. I just think people are under the impression that "their" money in the bank is "safe". Well, were under that impression, anyway.

It's not. It's a loan to the bank, and one that they seemingly don't have to pay back. In the US, "FDIC insurance" doesn't mean anything - it was termed a tax over there, and will be here as well, and there's no cover from the FDIC for that.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:17 pm

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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Cogglamp » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:34 pm

The last paragraph? You mean the senior finance minister from Cyprus attempting to equate their economy to Italy/Spain? Hardly an impartial observer. Better yet, he's simply fear mongering for political reasons.

If Italy or Spain were to go, the EU would be at DefCon 4. Cyprus has an economy the size of Vermont. While it may seem like a lot of maple syrup, Cyprus is a non-player in the grand economic scheme of things. Look at the VIX, it's still historically low and much lower than when Spain or Italy reached 6.00% in the senior bonds or during the height of the "Grexit" talk.

Frankly, I don't even feel badly for the small investors saying they've been wiped out because that's a falsehood.

Take $100,000 at 4.65% interest rate for 4 years compounded monthly (which is what Cyprus has been paying on average whereas the US has been <1.0%) and even with the ~10% impound imposed, you'd still be better off than you were if you were an investor/depositor here in the US.

Also, I don't know why you keep bringing up FDIC and trying to compare it to sovereign debt issues. It's misleading and frankly, give me one good precedent case where the FDIC failed to insure a bank failure here in the US. Hell, I've personally closed down over 40 banks as a consultant to the FDIC in the past 5 years and in each case those deposits were made whole.

Will the FDIC protect you if your bank is involved in gross negligence and money laundering and other things? No, but that's not the intention. Even if the EU had pan-European depositor insurance, the amount of egregious money laundering going on in Cyprus should void any insurance to the deposits. It's rife with corruption and blood money and people took advantage of super high depositor interest rates as a risk spread premium and now they're having to give some of that back.

Also, unless the banks go bust, the depositors are getting a pledge of equity in their respective banks. While this may dilute the price a bit, it's really not a true tax. I give this 2 months before this has blown over and we can barely remember how to point out Cyprus on a map.
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