Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Invisusira's playground

Moderators: Aergis, Invisusira

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Fri Mar 15, 2013 9:28 pm

Nooska wrote:In my opinion, because of the secrecy of the preventive measures and us not knowing what may be prevented (this goes both ways, we have nothing to sustain the idea that the intelligence communities are actually warding off terrorists attacks), means the measures are draconian and an undue limitation of the clear majority of persons (citizens or otherwise) and only serve to give the state more control - control of the kind anyone should be wary, especially when its given to democratically elected persons "for the betterment of us all" or some such drivel (without invoking Godwins law, I'll refer to the fact that Hitler rose to power through legal means (abuse of them, granted, but still legal)).

you're absolutely right. 9/11 scared the bejeezus out of people who sold their freedoms at every opportunity to protect themselves from terrorism. The regime at the time, though nominally in favour of a weak central government and strong state governments, took advantage of the fear to place incredible power in the hands of the President and even created an SS-like agencey called Homeland Security with incredible powers of its own.

The TSA's scope and budget expanded by several orders of magnitude, creating a dog-and-pony show that passed for security but has repeatedly been breached by undercover "testers" who were able to smuggle a range of items from knives to loaded handguns into "secured" areas of airports.

New concepts emerged, like the ability to put people on "no fly" lists, and to detain indefinitely people named as "enemy combatants" without any need for judicial process.

Repeated bills have been brought into congress to limit internet access to US citizens, although thankfully none of them have passed. The language of the proposed internet limitations has been so broad that any site could be shut down without judicial approval or review.

The government has been granted the power to detain undesirables and limit travel, and have come close to limiting access to information as well. The potential for abuse is rather extreme. If a Hitler-like individual was to rise to power in the US, the mechanics are already in place to legally create a Nazi-like state. Given the right catalyst, the US people would go along with it, too.
Un-Retired. Ish. Koatanga, Shapely, Sultry of Greenstone - Dath'Remar
Koatanga
 
Posts: 1687
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 12:46 pm

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Jabari » Sat Mar 16, 2013 5:31 pm

We've just gone from "Doomed" to "Well and Truly Fucked"...

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Cyprus+cooperative+banks+close+amid+depositor+concern+over/8109801/story.html


Love the non-answer that the Eurogroup prez gave, here, to the question whether the same thing could happen elsewhere in Europe:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-16/socgens-post-mortem-cyprus-unique-stability-levy-aka-deposit-confiscation
In one century we went from teaching Latin and Greek in high school to offering remedial English in college.
Jabari
 
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:46 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby fuzzygeek » Sat Mar 16, 2013 7:03 pm

Image
User avatar
fuzzygeek
Maintankadonor
 
Posts: 3447
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:58 pm

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Jabari » Sun Mar 17, 2013 11:28 am

fuzzygeek wrote:Yowza.

Yup.

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2013/03/a-major-major-game-changer.html

Update #4 is ... interesting. You following this Passionario? How is this going over in Russia?
In one century we went from teaching Latin and Greek in high school to offering remedial English in college.
Jabari
 
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:46 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Sun Mar 17, 2013 11:39 am

Update IV

^
|
My face when
Image
The Element of Forum Hyperbole
Image
---
Flüttershy - Draenei Protection Paladin, Aerie Peak
Klaudandus - BE Protection Paladin, Feathermoon (Semi-retired)
User avatar
Klaudandus
 
Posts: 9508
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2009 7:08 am
Location: Texas' Armpit

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby fuzzygeek » Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:22 pm

I would be very curious to see if there is data on bank moves made by government affiliates and their families just prior to the announcement.
Image
User avatar
fuzzygeek
Maintankadonor
 
Posts: 3447
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:58 pm

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:26 pm

fuzzygeek wrote:I would be very curious to see if there is data on bank moves made by government affiliates and their families just prior to the announcement.


I know regular people were taking their money out of the banks, but cant remember who was criticizing them... was it the gov't or the banks?
The Element of Forum Hyperbole
Image
---
Flüttershy - Draenei Protection Paladin, Aerie Peak
Klaudandus - BE Protection Paladin, Feathermoon (Semi-retired)
User avatar
Klaudandus
 
Posts: 9508
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2009 7:08 am
Location: Texas' Armpit

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Darielle » Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:48 pm

I will note that I only mentioned expedient. "Required" and "necessary" are different arguments, and, some I would presume would trigger some debate prior to actually doing stuff, as for something to be required or necessary, you have to demonstrate that. Being expedient is simply a matter of being the easiest way to do something.


You can, however, justify or at worst case manipulate "expedience" in the form of "requirement" or "necessity" with pretty good support.
Darielle
 
Posts: 853
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:41 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Aubade » Mon Mar 18, 2013 2:08 am

Oh wow. That's all I have to say to that. Wow.
- Awbade Level 85 Human Paladin - <Tsunami> Frostmourne - Retired.
- Aubade Level 88+ Blood Elf Paladin - BloodScalp - Casual
- Awbade Level 85+ Blood Elf Death Knight - BloodScalp - Casual
- Awbabe Level 85+ Undead Mage - BloodScalp - Casual
Image
User avatar
Aubade
Moderator
 
Posts: 4040
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2009 12:51 am
Location: Tacoma, WA

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Jabari » Mon Mar 18, 2013 9:16 am

Something related. Pulled from a comment at market-ticker in one of the related posts:

"One of my prep school classmates is one of the head lawyers of the FDIC. I called him tonight and he was completely briefed and aware of the Cyprus situation. When I mentioned the ticker to him, he laughed because he said the FDIC, FSLIC and SIPC have no jurisdiction nor provide any protection against taxes or fees, which Gen kind of implied. A bank run, of course is a different story, but the government can tax you to death and the FDIC, FSLIC and SIPC will just stand by and watch. They also will not cover you for a seizure that is related to a crime, like fraud, terrorism or narcotics violations."

No, I don't have any good suggestions. Everything is a risk at this point, including simple deposit accounts at the bank. I will note that what Cyprus did effectively makes the $100 in your hand potentially between 7 and 10% more valuable than the one in the bank (or in 401k, or a stock brokerage account, etc).

Edit: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=218845

Edit2: DHS has recently been buying ammo. LOTS of ammo. Like, 1.5 BILLION rounds of ammo. Related?
In one century we went from teaching Latin and Greek in high school to offering remedial English in college.
Jabari
 
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:46 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Passionario » Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:08 am

Jabari wrote:Update #4 is ... interesting. You following this Passionario? How is this going over in Russia?


The fact that Russian government is prepared to use military force to defend tax evasion and money laundering should tell you everything there is to know about Russian politics. :(
If you are not the flame, you're the fuel.
User avatar
Passionario
 
Posts: 2290
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:52 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Cogglamp » Mon Mar 18, 2013 8:20 pm

I can't help but LOL at the knee jerk reactions by economists. This has been festering for months and people were taking a naked bet that they'd get bailed at par. Guess what, that bet came up a loser. If you didn't see it coming, you were willfully ignorant. You have an oversized banking environment that's murky at best. The ECB is dealing with bad information and I'd bet this is a shot across the bow to make them clean up their game.

Cyprus is a tax haven that bears no resemblance to any other European country. Cyprus banks own much of the sovereign debt so you can't replicate any other Euro zone bailout. Let's stop with the comparisons to Spain and Italy and anywhere else. They're laughable. A precedent won't be made here. It's a specialized case that is being treated as such.
Cogglamp
 
Posts: 726
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2011 8:04 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Jabari » Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:36 am

Uh huh.

http://m.guardiannews.com/world/2013/mar/18/cyprus-bank-bailout-nicos-germany
(Check the last paragraph)

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1303/S00306/national-planning-cyprus-style-solution-for-new-zealand.htm

Now, the "oversized banking environment" bit is correct. I just think people are under the impression that "their" money in the bank is "safe". Well, were under that impression, anyway.

It's not. It's a loan to the bank, and one that they seemingly don't have to pay back. In the US, "FDIC insurance" doesn't mean anything - it was termed a tax over there, and will be here as well, and there's no cover from the FDIC for that.
In one century we went from teaching Latin and Greek in high school to offering remedial English in college.
Jabari
 
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:46 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Klaudandus » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:17 pm

The Element of Forum Hyperbole
Image
---
Flüttershy - Draenei Protection Paladin, Aerie Peak
Klaudandus - BE Protection Paladin, Feathermoon (Semi-retired)
User avatar
Klaudandus
 
Posts: 9508
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2009 7:08 am
Location: Texas' Armpit

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Cogglamp » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:34 pm

The last paragraph? You mean the senior finance minister from Cyprus attempting to equate their economy to Italy/Spain? Hardly an impartial observer. Better yet, he's simply fear mongering for political reasons.

If Italy or Spain were to go, the EU would be at DefCon 4. Cyprus has an economy the size of Vermont. While it may seem like a lot of maple syrup, Cyprus is a non-player in the grand economic scheme of things. Look at the VIX, it's still historically low and much lower than when Spain or Italy reached 6.00% in the senior bonds or during the height of the "Grexit" talk.

Frankly, I don't even feel badly for the small investors saying they've been wiped out because that's a falsehood.

Take $100,000 at 4.65% interest rate for 4 years compounded monthly (which is what Cyprus has been paying on average whereas the US has been <1.0%) and even with the ~10% impound imposed, you'd still be better off than you were if you were an investor/depositor here in the US.

Also, I don't know why you keep bringing up FDIC and trying to compare it to sovereign debt issues. It's misleading and frankly, give me one good precedent case where the FDIC failed to insure a bank failure here in the US. Hell, I've personally closed down over 40 banks as a consultant to the FDIC in the past 5 years and in each case those deposits were made whole.

Will the FDIC protect you if your bank is involved in gross negligence and money laundering and other things? No, but that's not the intention. Even if the EU had pan-European depositor insurance, the amount of egregious money laundering going on in Cyprus should void any insurance to the deposits. It's rife with corruption and blood money and people took advantage of super high depositor interest rates as a risk spread premium and now they're having to give some of that back.

Also, unless the banks go bust, the depositors are getting a pledge of equity in their respective banks. While this may dilute the price a bit, it's really not a true tax. I give this 2 months before this has blown over and we can barely remember how to point out Cyprus on a map.
Cogglamp
 
Posts: 726
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2011 8:04 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fridmarr » Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:17 am

First, about precedents...Everything, without any exception ever, that government does sets a precedent. That doesn't mean that precedent can't be overturned by either a superseding government body's ruling, or by the same body making new laws to specifically overturn it.  Until such time however, it seems that this body considers within its power the ability "tax" anyone in the EU with money in a bank if they feel it is warranted.
 
The odd thing here, since as you say, Cyprus is insignificant, then why bother with such a line crossing tactic?  If that's the answer when the situation is insignificant, I'd hate to see the solution when the situation is more dire.
 
As far as the alleged corruption and interest rates etc...Is that really relevant?  I mean shouldn't that be handled through the legislative regulatory process?  The given solution doesn't even seem to address that anyhow, but rather use it as justification, for which it hopelessly fails.  I mean if I put my money in a bank that is FDIC insured here, and that bank goes tits up because of malfeasance, why shouldn't the FDIC make me whole again?  Isn't it the FDIC's job to make sure banks whom they insure are meeting the standards for which they are willing to credit depositors should the bank not be able too?  For the FDIC to say, well that bank system was corrupt, when they have chosen to insure it, just means that they were derelict in their duties.
 
The same applies here, if the governing bodies didn't like the way Cyprus was running their banking systems there were legislative and regulatory solutions available, which is much preferable to these sort of closed door non representative sorts of punishments, which doesn't even address the culprits.
Fridmarr
Global Mod
 
Posts: 6465
Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2007 1:03 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:31 pm

Why is it that banks that should fail get bailed out by governments and continue to operate? If the government has to bail out a bank, it should take possession of the bank, pay out any deposits, sell off the bank's assets, and close down the bank.

Maybe if the penalty for mismanaging a bank was the loss of the business instead of a big fat bailout cheque, stockholders might value sound management and a slimmer bottom line.
Un-Retired. Ish. Koatanga, Shapely, Sultry of Greenstone - Dath'Remar
Koatanga
 
Posts: 1687
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 12:46 pm

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fridmarr » Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:37 pm

The government answer to that has been "too big too fail". And they did let many banks fail. Washington mutual was one of the more infamous. I tend to agree though, bailing out all of these companies that were doing stupid things may not have been the wisest choice in the long run, but it's an amazing amount of political cover that is hard to resist for politicians.
Fridmarr
Global Mod
 
Posts: 6465
Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2007 1:03 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Paxen » Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:08 pm

I favor nationalizing banks that are "too big to fail" and yet fail. The investors would have lost their money anyway, and investing in anything is never a sure thing. Then the government can sell it off again when/if the bank gets back in shape, recouping the taxpayers' money that was spent on it and perhaps even turning a profit.
Paxen
 
Posts: 561
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2009 3:38 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fridmarr » Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:49 pm

Define investor.
Fridmarr
Global Mod
 
Posts: 6465
Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2007 1:03 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Paxen » Wed Mar 20, 2013 11:27 pm

Fridmarr wrote:Define investor.


All right, bad word. Shareholders? As in, the owners of the bank?
Paxen
 
Posts: 561
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2009 3:38 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Nooska » Thu Mar 21, 2013 4:52 am

Koatanga wrote:Why is it that banks that should fail get bailed out by governments and continue to operate? If the government has to bail out a bank, it should take possession of the bank, pay out any deposits, sell off the bank's assets, and close down the bank.

Maybe if the penalty for mismanaging a bank was the loss of the business instead of a big fat bailout cheque, stockholders might value sound management and a slimmer bottom line.


Thats exactly how it works in Denmark. Well we did have some "bailout" packages, but that was for the entire bank sector. We have the governtment "company" called "Financial Stability" which takes over a bank that fails (unless another bank takes it over and merges it into its own). The depositors are the guaranteed deposits up to 100k €, and anyone in debt to the bank simply owe their money to the government. Financial Stability then sells off any healthy parts of the business.
The investors / stockholders / creditors of the bank that aren't depositors are left with nothing to show.

It works, quite well, witha great depositor security.
One group of depositors are exempt from the 100k € limit on deposits (last I heard) - municipalities and region bodies (ie the lower levels of government) - they have full security (imaginge if a municipality unning schools etc or the region running the hospitals suddenly didn't have their money because of a bank failing - right no healthcare, no paycheques, no nothing till a new tax is levied).
Main Characters:
Nooska, Blood Elf BM/SV Hunter on Argent Dawn (EU)
Morosin, Bloody freezing orc death knight on Argent Dawn (EU)
Niisca, Shady forsaken "priest" on Argent Dawn (EU)

Keeper Emeritus of the BM hunters guide on Elitist Jerks and the wowhead version untill patch 5.3.
User avatar
Nooska
 
Posts: 1602
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2011 10:55 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fridmarr » Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:58 am

That's how it works here too for 99.9% of banks, the exception being the "too big too fail" banks. Usually, it's because they are large conglomerates with reach far beyond just banking, and shutting them down would have significant negative repercussions, at least according to some government officials. Others think that banks should not be allowed to reach that state, they should be broken up if they reach that size.
Fridmarr
Global Mod
 
Posts: 6465
Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2007 1:03 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Paxen » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:27 am

If that had been how it worked, the US government would now have been heavily invested in the banking sector.
Paxen
 
Posts: 561
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2009 3:38 am

Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Fridmarr » Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:52 am

What do you mean? There's been some 400 or so banks that have failed since the crisis.


http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/fai ... klist.html
Fridmarr
Global Mod
 
Posts: 6465
Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2007 1:03 am

PreviousNext

Return to Arkham Asylum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron

Who is online

In total there is 1 user online :: 0 registered, 0 hidden and 1 guest (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
Most users ever online was 380 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:28 pm

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest