patch 5.2 ?

[KysenMurrin]

His post now says 30%, not 25%.

[Sagara]

I still wonder if it will be enough. 30% of (say) 25% is still about... 7.5% proc rate every 1.5sec instead of 20% every 4.5 sec.

Well, I guess theck is now on overtime :-p

[Fetzie]

I think that comes to a higher proc chance of GC per occurrence with 25% avoidance based on a 1.5 second swing timer than we currently get with the proc chance off CS/HotR. Tell me if I'm doing it wrong:

I currently have 25.39% dodge + parry.
30% of that is 7.617%. Divide that by 1.5 (the assumed swing timer, i think it is correct) to get a 5.078% proc chance per occurrence (melee swing)

GC has a 20% proc chance every 4.5 seconds. 20/4.5 = 4.444% proc chance per occurrence (CS or HotR cast).

5.078/4.444 = 1.143, or 14.3% higher chance to proc per potential occurrence, assuming there is only one mob attacking us at the time with zero haste%

With my haste level (18.78%) I have a 3.79 second cooldown on CS.

20/3.79 = 5.278% chance per occurrence. So my chance to proc GC versus a single mob will drop by 3.919% (5.278/5.078)

Now, my math is rustier than a car that has been sitting in a scrap yard for a decade, have I done it right?

[Kihra]

I think that comes to a higher proc rate of GC with 25% avoidance based on a 1.5 second swing timer than we currently get. Tell me if I'm doing it wrong:

I currently have 25.39% dodge + parry.
30% of that is 7.617%. Divide that by 1.5 (the assumed swing timer, i think it is correct) to get a 5.078% proc chance per occurrence (melee swing)

GC has a 20% proc chance every 4.5 seconds. 20/4.5 = 4.444% proc chance per occurrence (CS or HotR cast).

5.078/4.444 = 1.143, or 14.3% higher chance to proc per potential occurrence, assuming there is only one mob attacking us at the time.

Now, my math is rustier than a car that has been sitting in a scrap yard for a decade, have I done it right?

Don't forget you lose avoidance against a lvl 93 mob. In MoP this is 1.5% per level I believe (but someone correct me if I'm wrong). This means your actual avoidance against bosses is 9% lower than what you see on your paper doll.

Also, remember that as you stack Haste, the interval between GC procs goes down, right? In other words, you're not comparing against a 4.5 second CS... you're comparing against a haste-backed CS that is more likely 3.something seconds for someone who stacks Haste.

As far as I can tell, this is a straight up DPS nerf to single target and is never going to win vs. Haste. It also is a big nerf for bosses like Lei Shi, where we don't ever get hit. I'm not too happy about it for bosses like Sha either, where the 15% Haste buff in P1 no longer boosts GC and in the final phase he spends so much time doing other things like Huddle, Waterspout, Implacable, etc., and you'll be locked out from generating GC procs during that time.

Multi-mob tanking seems like it will be better with this change, but single target boss tanking just took a hit.

[Fetzie]

So assuming my math is correct (don't forget, BIG assumption), it would be more like a 7.3% proc chance nerf against a single target that is swinging once every 1.5 seconds.

Although, let's be honest, we've been bitching about multi-target threat for weeks now, and this looks like a multi-target threat/damage buff, and a (slight) nerf to our damage (through less AS) on a single-target encounter that melees regularly.

[KysenMurrin]

Isn't the standard swing timer more like 2 seconds?

[Fetzie]

Don't know. Thought it was faster than 2 seconds though.

A quick look at a WoL for our last raid shows Elegon swinging every 1.5 seconds and blade-lord tayak swinging every 2.0 seconds. So I guess it varies between the two values depending on the boss.

[Taeron]

Instead? Means no more GC procs when offtanking... Or on sparks at Elegon e.g.?

[Fetzie]

Nope. No more GC procs when you aren't tanking.

[Klaudandus]

hmm... Well, that blows.

[Darielle]

Standard swing timer is 1.5, with no attack speed modifiers existing anymore. Bunches of bosses vary, but that's the "standard" that mimics the old 2.0/2.4 thing.

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/7811252182#15 is my napkin math.
They changed the note to a 30% chance almost immediately.
Plus since we no longer have AS slows, we can assume 1.5 speed.
It'll come out roughly equivalent.

Assume 25% dodge/parry, and 30% chance and 1.5 swing speed, and 4 second CS cd.

Using a 12 second window, 3 CS = 0.8^3 = 0.512, or a 48.8% chance of at least 1 proc.
Using the same 12 second window, 8 swings = 0.925^8 = 0.536

Close enough.

[Fetzie]

So...my math corroborates what you got?

[Darielle]

It'd be like 4.9% less procs on average against a 1.5 second target, assuming those values (25% avoidance for a tank with decent avoidance, 4 sec CD cd for a tank with decent Haste).
I'm at work, so spreadsheeting up/down I probably won't do for obvious reasons

[Kihra]

It'd be like 4.9% less procs on average against a 1.5 second target, assuming those values (25% avoidance for a tank with decent avoidance, 4 sec CD cd for a tank with decent Haste).
I'm at work, so spreadsheeting up/down I probably won't do for obvious reasons

I think 25% avoidance is a bit too high. Once you factor in that you lose 9% against a level 93, I think most people will have much lower than 25%. I know I'm sitting at more like 19% against a level 93, and that's even as someone who has taken Dodge/Parry pieces (plenty of pallies have skipped those pieces).

There are also many many places where you don't get hit, either because the boss is on your co-tank, or because the boss is just doing something other than melee. We will also no longer see more GC procs during boosted Haste periods like Heroism.

The fights that will see the biggest swing in the current tier with this change are Wind Lord and Empress (big buff because of add tanking probably), Lei Shi (big nerf because Lei Shi never melees), Sha (big nerf because 15% Haste buff no longer helps with GC procs in P1 and Dread Expanse time you don't tank that much and he spends lots of time doing specials). Stone Guard with two dogs will be a buff I suppose. The rest of the fights will be a DPS nerf.

[Fetzie]

Sha of Fear does swing 4 times instantly with Thrash every 9 seconds though, and Dread Thrash is 6 swings (heroic mode) every 36 seconds. Surely they would skew the bit where you are tanking Sha in favour of avoidance GC?