All about sports

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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Wed Dec 26, 2012 5:00 pm

on the fact that most of RGIII's awesomeness is the product of east coast bias and hype from ESPN
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Re: All about sports

Postby Fridmarr » Wed Dec 26, 2012 5:12 pm

Klaudandus wrote:on the fact that most of RGIII's awesomeness is the product of east coast bias and hype from ESPN

Well I don't think that the east coast bias is a myth, but even the local radio honks in the Seattle market believe that RGIII deserves it more than Wilson (well at least the morning show dudes) assuming he doesn't flop against Dallas.

It's not as if Wilson has drastically better numbers than RGIII, or even better numbers at all, depending on how you want to slice it up. RGIII's awesomeness is pretty legit, which isn't to say that Wilson hasn't also had an awesome season, but lets not get carried away with the east coast bias.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Wed Dec 26, 2012 5:27 pm

I think RGIII being "awesome" is gonna quickly wear away, just like Vick's awesomeness did...

Wilson is more mobile than other QBs, but doesnt seem to be as prone as RGIII to run for it and therefore I see him having a longer career than RGIII

I'd use that to put a knock on RGIII's and his run for the ROTY award.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Fridmarr » Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:42 pm

That's rather strange (and illogical) criteria.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:56 pm

yeah, well, i just despise RGIII, so I use any excuse to knock on him, tho I like him many times more compared to Newton and Vick.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Koatanga » Wed Dec 26, 2012 9:17 pm

Well, there's the fact that Wilson's Strength of Victory is .537 vs RGIII's .452 and Luck's .367, which means Wilson has been beating tougher teams than RGIII or Luck have.

Then there's that QBR thing, and how Wilson has the #1 (vs Buffalo) and #4 (vs SF) highest rated games of the year (that's all QBs in all games, not just rookies).

Then there's the defenses Wilson faced - he faced 6 of the top-10 passing defenses in the league and beat every one of them.

RGIII faced only 2 of the top 10 passing defenses, and lost both games.

So in terms of strength of victory and performance against good defenses, the nod clearly goes to Wilson.

RGIII has some better numbers, but against lesser opposition.

Advantage: Wilson.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Wed Dec 26, 2012 9:43 pm

my gut feeling is now vindicated
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Re: All about sports

Postby Fridmarr » Wed Dec 26, 2012 11:38 pm

Had the best week and 4th best week...wow talk about cherry picking... (Really think Romo was better than Rogers last year? Because, that's the equivalent.)

The problem with attempting to do much with strength of schedule in the NFL is that you're stuck with two trips through conference play, and an assigned AFC conference group. Like you could argue that the NFC West has tough defenses, and so therefore Wilson has beat tough defenses, but then you'd miss the fact that a major contributor to those statistically tough defenses is the fact that they also have some of the worst offenses in the league. Of the 16 teams in the NFC, the west occupies spots 7 (SF), 11 (SEA), 14 (Rams), and 16 (AZ) that's terrible. So are their defenses that good or their offenses that bad? Probably a bit of both.

QBR, if that's a stat you like, is a losing proposition for Wilson. Notably, his QBR is just plain worse than RGIII's. That's pretty much the end if it there. Now, given that conferences play similar schedules you could look to see how they did relative to the other QBs in their conference, but that really hurts Wilson too. In just the NFC West (where schedules are similar), Wilson is actually third behind Kaepernick and even Alex Smith. RGIII on the other hand has a huge margin over Romo and Eli.

If you want to at look numbers, Wilson just doesn't win. It's close, but I just don't see anyway you can twist it unless something happens in this week to change it. You'll have to go beyond the numbers and that's a difficult battle too because RGIII has carried an otherwise much more flawed team.

Klaudandus wrote:my gut feeling is now vindicated
People will believe what they want to believe I guess. That's a pretty interesting list of QBs you have chosen to despise by the way.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Koatanga » Thu Dec 27, 2012 1:02 am

Fridmarr wrote:The problem with attempting to do much with strength of schedule in the NFL is that you're stuck with two trips through conference play, and an assigned AFC conference group. Like you could argue that the NFC West has tough defenses, and so therefore Wilson has beat tough defenses, but then you'd miss the fact that a major contributor to those statistically tough defenses is the fact that they also have some of the worst offenses in the league. Of the 16 teams in the NFC, the west occupies spots 7 (SF), 11 (SEA), 14 (Rams), and 16 (AZ) that's terrible. So are their defenses that good or their offenses that bad? Probably a bit of both.

That's where strength of victory comes in, and RGIII beat lesser teams (under .500) while Wilson beat greater teams (over .500).

Also, in the top 10 pass defenses, only Seattle and SF come from the division, so the other 5 top-10 defenses the Seahawks played were outside their division. So much for that argument.

Edit: And SF is considered to be one of the better defenses in the league regardless of division. So is Seattle, for that matter.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Fridmarr » Thu Dec 27, 2012 1:56 am

First of all, Wilson didn't beat any of them, the Seahawks did. Secondly, you forgot Arizona who are also in the Seahawk's division. Third, the Seahawks played two of those teams twice, (SF and AZ) and they split those series. So when you say he beat everyone of them that's true but also very misleading because they also lost to two of them. Plus Wilson didn't have particularly good games in a few of those wins either.

It really wasn't until the Bears (wk 13) game that Wilson really stood out or carried his team. That may have mostly been the coach's fault and Carroll has spoken to that point, but it's the reality. Meanwhile the Skins are mostly riding RGIII each week, he's been the catalyst for that offense, and it's been enough to win even with a defense that has slipped near the bottom.

At this point, neither the numbers or the intangibles are in Wilson's favor. That may change this week, but it's clearly where things are now.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Koatanga » Thu Dec 27, 2012 2:26 am

Fridmarr wrote:First of all, Wilson didn't beat any of them, the Seahawks did. Secondly, you forgot Arizona who are also in the Seahawk's division. Third, the Seahawks played two of those teams twice, (SF and AZ) and they split those series. So when you say he beat everyone of them that's true but also very misleading because they also lost to two of them. Plus Wilson didn't have particularly good games in a few of those wins either.

It really wasn't until the Bears (wk 13) game that Wilson really stood out or carried his team. That may have mostly been the coach's fault and Carroll has spoken to that point, but it's the reality. Meanwhile the Skins are mostly riding RGIII each week, he's been the catalyst for that offense, and it's been enough to win even with a defense that has slipped near the bottom.

At this point, neither the numbers or the intangibles are in Wilson's favor. That may change this week, but it's clearly where things are now.

Sorry, missed the Cards. But hell when you put up 58 points on someone you tend to forget they have a defense.

Given where the two QBs are now, Wilson is playing absolutely lights-out football. His decision-making, accuracy, and execution are leading the team. That wasn't true earlier in the year, but it certainly is now.

Obviously you can't single out the QBs performance from that of the team. You need defense and running game and all of that. But for the Seahawks, Wilson is currently the team leader, and we've been lighting up the scoreboard ever since he was turned loose in the Chicago game. I can say it's on the back of Wilson because I follow the Seahawks quite closely.

And as for stat-padded defense rankings, it's possibly worth noting that AZ, SF, and Seattle all beat New England. Isn't Brady considered to be one of the league's best QBs? It is mere coincidence that he lost to all 3 of those top-10 pass defenses? Heck, Seattle is 4-1 against last year's 4000-yard passers (and almost beat the 5th). We're starting our #4 cornerback and are still doing well against the pass. We might have earned our defensive rank.

Oh, did I mention he's 2 TD passes away from breaking the record for passing touchdowns by a rookie, currently held by Peyton freaking Manning? And that while riding the pine in games where he easily could have padded his stats.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Paxen » Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:06 am

If you feel the stats from Football Outsiders is anything to go by (they break up games play by play, compare it to league average, then run the numbers through 6 or 7 rounds of adjusting for opponents), here's how they rank the defenses the Seahawks have beaten:

SF 3
BUF 27
ARI 5
CHI 1
NYJ 9
MIN 18
NE 17
CAR 10
GB 7
DAL 23

So in the last four weeks the Seahawks played the defenses ranked #1, #3 and #5, and scored a total of 117 points on them...
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:09 am

Fridmarr wrote:
Klaudandus wrote:my gut feeling is now vindicated
People will believe what they want to believe I guess. That's a pretty interesting list of QBs you have chosen to despise by the way.


oh?
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Re: All about sports

Postby Fridmarr » Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:06 am

Koatanga wrote:Sorry, missed the Cards. But hell when you put up 58 points on someone you tend to forget they have a defense.

Given where the two QBs are now, Wilson is playing absolutely lights-out football. His decision-making, accuracy, and execution are leading the team. That wasn't true earlier in the year, but it certainly is now.

Obviously you can't single out the QBs performance from that of the team. You need defense and running game and all of that. But for the Seahawks, Wilson is currently the team leader, and we've been lighting up the scoreboard ever since he was turned loose in the Chicago game. I can say it's on the back of Wilson because I follow the Seahawks quite closely.

And as for stat-padded defense rankings, it's possibly worth noting that AZ, SF, and Seattle all beat New England. Isn't Brady considered to be one of the league's best QBs? It is mere coincidence that he lost to all 3 of those top-10 pass defenses? Heck, Seattle is 4-1 against last year's 4000-yard passers (and almost beat the 5th). We're starting our #4 cornerback and are still doing well against the pass. We might have earned our defensive rank.

Oh, did I mention he's 2 TD passes away from breaking the record for passing touchdowns by a rookie, currently held by Peyton freaking Manning? And that while riding the pine in games where he easily could have padded his stats.

Yeah, he is playing lights out football, but that's right now. You can't just ignore the first 12 weeks of the season. It's not the rookie of the month award.

I'm not saying that the West has bad defenses. In fact I think as a division, they probably have the best in the league overall, but I'm saying it's not all that useful as a metric because of how the scheduling works.

I follow them pretty closely too, since I walk across the stadium parking lot every day on my way to work, since I spend a fair amount of time listening to local sports radio (and as I pointed out earlier, even most of those guys think if the season ended today it's RGIII who has earned it the most), since all their games are locally broadcast, since I "get" to hear Hugh Millen breakdown pretty much every play after each game, since half the people at work scream about the Seahawk's roundtable all week long.

I've got a pretty good sense of things for the Seahawks. No Wilson has not carried the Seahawks all year long the way that RGIII has with the skins, partially it's because he doesn't need too, but another part is that Wilson got to spend the first three quarters of the year just managing the games, RGIII never had that luxury.

TD passes aren't a stat that is all that valuable, but again, you have to compare those numbers to RGIII (especially if you consider that RGIII has a higher QB Rating than "Peyton Freaking Manning"). Wilson has 28 TDs combined on the year, RGIII has 26. Lets say that the missed time is wash with RGIII missing a game and Wilson on cruise mode in some blowouts. But then you have the negatives, Wilson has twice as many interceptions and 13 turnovers overall to RGIII's 7.

Again Wilson has had a terrific year, and an absolutely amazing month, but you can't ignore what RGIII has done either. Maybe any other year it would be a slam dunk win for Wilson, and if RGIII doesn't play well on Sunday and Wilson has another one of these games he may just win it, but right now it's RGIII who has earned it.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:12 am

I'd say, Kirk Cousins also carried the redskins on his shoulders, considering that RGIII knocked himself out of a couple of games with his recklessness... and Kirk is the reason why they're even 9-6 and close to winning the division.
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