All about sports

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Re: All about sports

Postby Koatanga » Wed Dec 19, 2012 2:51 pm

Shoju wrote:He's a "debatable" addition to have over wheelchair. Just not sure that we have a system in place that would even remotely take advantage of him. cleveland seems enamored with their limited mobility, pocket passers.

As in the classic Bernie Kosar model of complete immobility. I recall Drew Carey likening him to a microphone stand which he then proceeded to knock over. Gotta love ol Bernie.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:54 am

Koatanga wrote:
Shoju wrote:He's a "debatable" addition to have over wheelchair. Just not sure that we have a system in place that would even remotely take advantage of him. cleveland seems enamored with their limited mobility, pocket passers.

As in the classic Bernie Kosar model of complete immobility. I recall Drew Carey likening him to a microphone stand which he then proceeded to knock over. Gotta love ol Bernie.


Yep. BUt hey, if you watch Browns Pre-season, you get to watch Bernie sport the Cowboys Super Bowl ring he picked up while backing up Aikman.
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Re: All about sports

Postby halabar » Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:39 am

Amirya wrote:... because everyone needs a Catagonskin rug.

twinkfist wrote:i feel bad for the Mogu...having to deal with alcoholic bears.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:46 am



I saw that... how is that an improvement... and if they want a running qb, why didnt they go with the one they already have?
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:32 am

OH man... In the Press Conference Today, The Browns Coaching Staff is trying to make it sound like Brandon Weeden is doing as well as Andrew Luck. Let's let the stats decide.

Andrew Luck
652 Snaps to judge. (this does not include plays where the ball is handed off.)
308 / 564 - 54.6% Comp Rate
3978 YDS | 12.9 YDS per C | 7.05 YDS Per A
20 TD | 1 TD per 15.4 C | 1 TD per 28.2 A
18 INT | 1 INT per 17.1 C | 1 INT per 31.333333 A
51 ATT 233 Rush Yds | 4.56 YPC
5 Rush TD | 1 TD Per 10.2 Att
37 sacks | 1 Sack per 17.62 Snaps Taken
232 YDS Lost | 6.27 YDS Per Sack
1 TD per 26.08 Snaps Taken
6.10 YDS Per Snap
10 fumbles | 1 Fumble per 65.2 Snaps Taken

75.5 Rating | 65.53 QRB

Brandon Weeden
548 Snaps to Judge.
285 / 498 - 57.2% Comp Rate
3281 YDS | 11.51 YDS per C | 6.58 YDS Per A
14 TD | 1 TD Per 20.35 C | 1 TD per 35.57 A
17 INT | 1 INT per 16.76 C | 1 INT per 29.29 A
24 ATT 107 Rush YDS | 4.45 YPC
0 RUSH TD | 0 TD per ATT
26 Sack | 1 Sack per 21.07 Snaps Taken
170 YDS Lost | 6.53 YDS Per Sack
6 Fumbles | 1 Fumble Per 91.33 Snaps Taken
1 TD per 39.4 Snaps Taken
5.87 YDS Per Snap
72.4 Rating 26.13 QBR

Now. I will be the first to admit, that I'm not sure I buy into the new ESPN QBR, but then again, I'm not sure I completely understand how it's calculated. So, we'll just go with the expanded numbers. Those numbers show a glaring dissimilarity. Luck is just better. Except in Fumbles per snap and sack per snap.


So let's look at the other rookie QB's who have started all season in the same expanded formula.


RGIII
491 Snaps to Judge
233 / 351 - 66.4% Comp Rate
2902 Yds | 12.45 YDS Per C | 8.26 YDS Per A
18 TD | 1 TD Per 12.944 C | 1 TD per 19.5 A
4 INT | 1 INT per 58.25 C | 1 INT per 87.75 A
112 Att 748 YDS - 6.67 YPC
6 Rush TD | 1 TD per 18.666 ATT
28 Sacks | 1 Sack per 17.53 Snaps
191 YDS | 6.82 YDS Per Sack
11 Fumbles | 1 Fumble per 44.63 Snaps
1 TD per 20.45 snaps
7.04 YDS Per Snap
104.2 Rating 71.27 QBR



Russell Wilson
457 Snaps to Judge
222 / 353 - 62.9% Comp Rate
2697 YDS | 12.14 Yds Per C | 7.64 YDS Per A
21 TD | 1 TD per 10.57 C | 1 TD per 16.8 A
9 INT | 1 INT per 24.66 C | 1 INT per 39.22 A
78 ATT 402 YDS - 5.15 YPC
3 Rush TD - 1 TD per 26 ATT
26 Sacks | 1 sack per 17.57 Snaps
161 YDS Lost | 6.19 YDS Per Sack
5 Fumbles | 1 Fumble per 91.4 Snaps
1 TD Per 19.04 Snaps
6.42 YDS Per Snap
95.5 rating 68.67 QBR

Ryan Tannehill
491 Snaps to Judge
249 / 424 - 58.7% Comp Rate
2929 YDS | 11.76 YDS Per C | 6.9 YDS Per A
10 TD | 1 TD per 24.9 C | 1 TD per 42.4 A
12 INT | 1 INT per 20.75 C | 1 INT per 35.33 A
41 ATT 159 YDS - 3.87 YPC
2 Rush TD - 1td per 20.5 ATT
26 Sacks | 1 Sack per 18.88 Snaps
197 YDS Lost | 7.57 YDS Per Sack
7 Fumbles | 1 Fumble per 70.14 Snaps
1 TD Per 40.91 Snap
5.88 YDS Per Snap
75.9 rating 52.51 QBR



So in ranking the Rookie QB's, you normally look at Yds, TD's, INT's, Fumbles, I like Yards Per Attempt on passing.
YDS Per Attempt
RGIII
RW
Luck
Tannehill
Weeden

For TD's, I think it's important to see how often your QB is "responsible" for a TD. So I'll Use Snaps per TD.
Snaps Per TD
Wilson
RGIII
Luck
Weeden
Tannehill

I wanted to go more in depth on Fumbles, and Ball Security, but In writing this, I couldn't find a good site with Fumbles Lost. Most of them just list Fumbles. So.
Snaps Per Fumble
Wilson
Weeden
Luck
Tannehill
RGIII

And since I couldn't find Fumbles Lost, to do a Snaps per Turnover, Here is an INT per Attempt.
INT per A
RGIII
Wilson
Tannehill
Luck
Weeden

Snaps per Sack - Maybe not a good measure for the QB, maybe a better measure when talking O Lines? But here it is anyway.
Weeden
Tannehill
Luck
Wilson
RGIII

And Because I think that this is just a mind bogglingly awesome stat. Yds per Snap
RGIII
Wilson
Luck
Tannehill
Weeden

It's pretty clear. Weeden falls somewhere between Tannehill and Luck in his Rookie Campaign if you disect the numbers. For me, The Top Rookie QB is RGIII, with Wilson a not too distant second. Then Luck, Then Weeden, Then Tannehill.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:39 am

the question with RG3 is gonna be his longevity in the NFL...
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:46 am

Klaudandus wrote:the question with RG3 is gonna be his longevity in the NFL...


He is going to need to learn to slide.
And when to throw it away
And when to run out of bounds

Or he is going to die. I think the best 2 Qb's out of this draft in terms of longevity will be luck and wilson.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Thu Dec 20, 2012 6:41 pm

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Re: All about sports

Postby Koatanga » Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:06 pm

Pro Football Focus: Sanchez is ranked #34th among all 2012 quarterbacks – putting him in the company of players like Michael Vick, Christian Ponder, John Skelton and Ryan Fitzpatrick.


Makes sense to trade him and get Vick then, doesn't it...

Maybe the Jets should shoot just a tad higher.

Do they really think they can trade Sanchez? His salary is off the charts:
2013: $8.2m
2014: $9m
2015: $12.5m
2016: $10.75m

Nobody is going to pay that much for him.

I've heard it will cost the Jets up to $17 million to cancel his contract, which puts Sanchez in the driver's seat for any talks of renegotiation.

Jets are screwed.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:15 am

I put together a slick little spreadsheet that gives me the information that I listed for the Rookie QB's on every QB. It gives me some interesting information. I'm actually going to look into making the spreadsheet even more "robust" as I love dissecting stats. So, here are some tidbits.

Most of my "interesting tidbits" are based on "Meaningful Snaps" (I'll be abbreviating this as MS). This means a snap where the QB is in control of the play. This includes Pass Attempts, Sacks, and Rushing Attempts.

Currently, there are three Qb's in the league who average 7 yards / MS.
They are?
1.) Colin Kaepernick 7.12 y/ms
2.) RGIII 7.04 y/ms
3.) Peyton Manning 7.0 y/ms.

Of the QB's in the league who have at least 100 MS, the worst are
Ryan Lindley 3.5 y/ms
John Skelton 4.72 y/ms
Brady Quinn 4.75 y/ms

EDIT: Kevin Kolb wasn't far behind at 4.91 y/ms... what a trifecta of fail in Arizona!

I came up with an interesting number ratio, negative plays per snap. This takes into account Fumbles, INT's, and Sacks. This stat can be a little misleading, since some fumbles could happen after the LOS, or not result in a loss of possession, but it's pretty interesting. The safest QB's in the league:
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Matt Schaub
Eli Manning
Matthew Stafford

The least safe QB's in the league with 100MS

Kevin Kolb
Phillip Rivers
Mark Sanches
John Skelton
Jay Cutler


I found it sort of interesting, because Eli has a really bad Snap to INT ratio 1 per 34.73 MS. But he has a really good MS/Fumble 104.2, and a MS to Sack of 34.73. He actually gets Sacked the Least per MS of any QB in the league, followed by Peyton, BRady, Schaub, and Brees.

The worst MS to Sack Ratios: Kevin Kolb 8.37 Alex Smith 11.25 Brady Quinn 11.69 Chad Henne 12.55 and.... Aaron Rodgers 12.64....

God, I'm having WAY too much fun going through these numbers.
Last edited by Shoju on Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:17 am

That's pretty awesome!

Makes me wonder how Tebow did in his limited time as a starter
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:18 am

Klaudandus wrote:That's pretty awesome!

Makes me wonder how Tebow did in his limited time as a starter



I will add him. i didn't because he was so small, but give me a sec. Pretty Easy.

EDIT: Teeb's numbers This year as a "Wildcat" look rough, but it is a pitifully small sample size.

Y/MS : 3.19 That would be worst in the league, but again, we're talking less than 50 MS.
NP/MS : .05 This would tie him for best in the league with Tom Brady. That means he has .05 Negative Plays (INT / Fumble / Sack) per play he's on the field.
He also would boast a top 10 MS to Sack Ratio, at an even 21 MS per Sack.

Now, lets feed it last years #'s for Teebs. The news isn't great.
Teebs had a pretty bad NP/MS last year at .12
He had a pretty mediocre Y/MS at 5.08
He had a pretty terrible MS/Sacks at 12.91
A pretty terrible MS/Fumble at 30.43 (would have been second worst in the league this year) for 100+ MS Qb's.
A pretty mediocre MS/TD at 23.67 (18th this year)


Poor guy. Not even the #'s can make sense of why he won.



EDIT: I just gained even more respect for Dan Marino's 5k yard season over top of Brees'.
I was curious about Drew Brees and Marino's record setting passing seasons. So here they are

Drew Brees (2011)
Snaps/TD - 14.94
Snaps/Int - 50.14
Snaps/Fum - 702 (this is so ridiculously off the charts. It blows Brady's current season mark out of the water by more than 2x
Snaps/Sack - 29.25
Yards/Snap - 7.7
NP/S - .06

Dan Marino (1984)
Snaps/TD - 12.6
Snaps/INT - 35.59
Snaps/Fumble - 100.83
Snaps/Sack - 46.54
Yards/Snap - 8.19
NP/S - .06

First. Snaps per TD.... In a league that's trying to increase scoring, they aren't even coming CLOSE to Marino's season. The best Sn/Td ratio in the league this year is Drew Brees at 16.54..... That means that Marino was doing it 4 snaps FASTER in 1984. In a league that was rougher on QB's AND Receivers. HOLY SHIT MAN.

The INT numbers show that too. Marino's 35.59 SN/INT is in the lower half of the 2012 numbers.
His Snaps per fumble, would be middle of the road this year. On par With Eli.
His Snaps per Sack? Mind boggling. 46.54 Snaps per sack is almost 12 snaps BETTER than the best this season. It's a full 20 snaps better than second place. You just didn't sack Mr. Marino in 1984.
His Yards per Snap? 1 freaking yard better than Colin Kaepernick, who hasn't played the complete season. 1.15 better than RGIII, who has played all season.

I'm floored. Marino was a beast.
Last edited by Shoju on Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:56 am

WoW...

Some people say its because the guy has more stamina than the defenses he would play against, therefore, he would do better on the 4th quarter once the other team was gassed
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:07 am

Must resist urge to start comparing careers.

Must... REsis......
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:16 am

Go ahead, I am enjoying this
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:18 am

Asking for list, blah blah, Klaud replied before I could make my list.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:46 am

Romo, just for shits and giggles

Also, McCoy because I want to confirm that he was given up on prematurely, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton and Newton -- cuz I wanna see how last season's rookies are doing.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:52 am

Generating your list, will post shortly. I also did the top 12 QB's by passing yds / TD's, Even with the skewed Results.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:49 pm

Ok. So. First. Tony Romo gets a bad Rap. Over his career, he is:

20.01 Snaps/TD
40.02 Snaps/INT
69.06 Snaps/Fumble
20.24 Snaps/Sack
6.95 Yards Per Snap
.09 Neg Play Per Snap.

Those numbers need some historical perspective. So here you go.

Peyton Manning
18.66 Snaps / TD (The Best I've Found so far for a career)
40.11 Snaps / INT
141.39 Snaps/Fumble (Again, the best I've Found so far for a career)
33.1 Snaps/Sack (Ok, so Romo gets sacked.... A LOT.
6.95 Yards Per Snap. I've yet to find a player with complete Sack History over 7 for a career.
.06 Neg Play Per Snap

So Romo is about 1/3 more likely to do something bad. He has a lower Snap/TD than Manning. But it's right in line with Marino and Drew Brees, who both sport career #'s of 20.81 and 20.19 respectively and Frank Tarkenton who put up a 19.83.

Romo gets picked at the same clip as Manning, Which is the same clip as Brees, a little more often than Montana, A lot more often than Brady, but not as much as Elway, Bledsoe, Marino, Moon, Favre, Testaverde, Tarkenton, or Unitas. Obviously, there are some historic points to those numbers, but the point is, He's not that bad.

He does fumble a fair bit though. The only people I checked (that aren't last years rookies) that fumbled more often over the course of their career are Favre, Testy, Elway, Bledsoe, Unitas, and Moon (and boy... that guy fumbled A LOT... at a clip of 48.6 snaps per fumble.

Romos Sack Numbers are middle of the pack when compared to the "glorious dozen" (snicker)

But the big thing is, He's currently, for his career, tied with Manning for the best YPS of QB's who played 1969 or newer (that I've looked at so far.) I'm thinking 6.95 will probably hold out as a great number, since this season, we only have 3 QB's over that number for the season.

His Neg plays per Snap is a little low, comparing it to the "greats". But still better than Elway, Moon, Testy, and Bledsoe.

All in All, If Romo didn't have such a stigma around him, and a terrible record in the playoff, he would definitely be considered one of the top QB's to play the position in his generation.

So onto the other Qb's.

Colt McCoy
39.57 Snaps / TD - BAD.
41.55 Snaps / INT - GOOD
69.25 Snaps/Fumble - Not Terrible.
15.11 Snaps/Sack - WOAH BAD.... Like Arizona Cardinals QB Bad.
5.23 Yards Per Snap. Not Great, This is Hasselbeck, Sanchez territory.
.1 Neg Play Per Snap Sort of not good. But not terrible. We're in the Joe Flacco Water Here, not the Mark Sanchez Water.

So maybe he didn't get a bad rap afterall....

Onto last year's rookies. These are their stats for the career.

Chrisitan Ponder
28.45 Snaps / TD
33 Snaps / INT
68.75 Snaps/Fumble
27.5 Snaps/Sack
5.59 Yards Per Snap.
.08 Neg Play Per Snap

Blaine Gabbert
39 Snaps / TD
48.18 Snaps / INT
43.11 Snaps/Fumble
13.21 Snaps/Sack
4.37 Yards Per Snap.
.12 Neg Play Per Snap

Jake Locker
26.4 Snaps / TD
44 Snaps / INT
99 Snaps/Fumble
18.86 Snaps/Sack
6.56 Yards Per Snap.
.09 Neg Play Per Snap

Andy Dalton
22.2 Snaps / TD
41.93 Snaps / INT
125.78 Snaps/Fumble
18.26 Snaps/Sack
5.84 Yards Per Snap.
.09 Neg Play Per Snap

Cam Newton
20.7 Snaps / TD
46 Snaps / INT
82.8 Snaps/Fumble
18.26 Snaps/Sack
6.74 Yards Per Snap.
.09 Neg Play Per Snap

Some pretty interesting Numbers. Cam looks good. Dalton looks good. Locker looks like he could be good. Ponder is very much a Jury is still out, and Gabbert? HE either needs a new team, or put on the visor and headset.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:56 pm

It makes me wonder if the reason why McCoy got sacked a lot was to a porous O-Line

I've never liked Gabbert, the guy looks scared to get hit on the field.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Teranoid » Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:02 pm

Came home and I hear from the other room "Pirates sign.." and I get somewhat excited until I hear..

"Francisco Liriano."

Ugh.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:06 pm

For the record, what are Sanchez numbers as per your spreadsheet? I can't seem to find them on the thread.

And I'd like to see them career total and this season's
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:33 pm

Klaudandus wrote:It makes me wonder if the reason why McCoy got sacked a lot was to a porous O-Line

I've never liked Gabbert, the guy looks scared to get hit on the field.


Which is the biggest reason that I've been dabting how worthwhile the sack calculation is. Because McCoy had...... Thomas. And then a rookie Alex Mack. That's it. He had god awful protection. Teams poured through the O line in Cleveland as if it were a tattered wet paper bag that already had the bottom ripped out. It was bad.

Gabbert doesn't look good on the field. He really doesn't. It's like he showed up in the NFL and say HOLY F)(*!@%^ING SH!@()*&%@# THESE MOTHERf239876ERS ARE HUGE MAN! And ever since, he's been running, trying to find the mother from the movie Little Giants to cover him in Bubble Wrap. PLEASE DON'T LET THE BIG GUY HIT ME PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE HE'S GOING TO KILL ME OH MY GOD HE'S GOING TO KILL ME.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Klaudandus » Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:37 pm

Shoju wrote:
Klaudandus wrote:It makes me wonder if the reason why McCoy got sacked a lot was to a porous O-Line

I've never liked Gabbert, the guy looks scared to get hit on the field.


Which is the biggest reason that I've been dabting how worthwhile the sack calculation is. Because McCoy had...... Thomas. And then a rookie Alex Mack. That's it. He had god awful protection. Teams poured through the O line in Cleveland as if it were a tattered wet paper bag that already had the bottom ripped out. It was bad.

Gabbert doesn't look good on the field. He really doesn't. It's like he showed up in the NFL and say HOLY F)(*!@%^ING SH!@()*&%@# THESE MOTHERf239876ERS ARE HUGE MAN! And ever since, he's been running, trying to find the mother from the movie Little Giants to cover him in Bubble Wrap. PLEASE DON'T LET THE BIG GUY HIT ME PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE HE'S GOING TO KILL ME OH MY GOD HE'S GOING TO KILL ME.


Exactly what I saw from reading Gabbert's body language and eyes.
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Re: All about sports

Postby Shoju » Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:50 pm

I missed your request for Sanchez. Here he is.

36.23 Snaps per TD (yes. Almost double the snaps of Andy Dalton, More than double the snaps of Aaron Rodgers, and Drew bress and Peyton Manning.
27.21 Snaps per INT (yes. He throws INT's faster than TD's)
39.25 Snaps per Fumble (Yes. He Fumbles almost as often as he scores)
14.27 Snaps per Sack (that's gotta hurt.)
5.32 Yards per Snap
.13 Neg Plays Per Snap. That's good enough to be tied for worst in the leauge.

EDIT:
I've been going through some stats, adding in some other QB's that had long careers to try and better flesh out what would be a "good" number, and a "Bad" number in this formula. At this point, I think it's safe to say that

.1 or higher on Negative Plays Per Snap is just... Awful. AWFUL AWFUL AWFUL AWFUL AWFUL.

So far, the worst NP/S I have found is the Godfather of the NFL QB Family. Archie Manning, and his astounding .15 NP/S.
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