Politics (formerly Election 2012)

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Re: Election 2012

Postby Shoju » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:08 pm

My kids were very interested in this election cycle. When my 7 year old daughter saw that Mitt was losing when she went to bed last night (still pretty early in the night), she sang

Ding Dong the Mitt is gone
The wicked Mitt The wicked Mitt
Ding Dong the Wicked Mitt is gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooone.

I just about lost it. God that kid cracks me up.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Koatanga » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:08 pm

My 7-year-old is learning about American politics in school (we're in New Zealand for those who don't know). She told her teacher she was afraid if Romney got elected that he'd bomb California.

I swear we don't teach her this stuff.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Paxen » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:11 pm

So how about Nate Silver getting every single state right?

Even over here there's been discussion about how the media has claimed the election was too close to call even though Silver has said for months that Obama had something like an 80% chance to win. Can't imagine that debate going away now, or that it shouldn't be even more important in the US.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Klaudandus » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:14 pm

Some of the right wing websites are going full derp mode after the election --

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-i-was-wrong/?Fark
http://www.redstate.com/mikehammond/201 ... -election/
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/0 ... e-Freakout
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/ ... from-here/
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/ ... vor-obama/
http://www.wnd.com/2012/11/win-or-lose- ... president/
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Gotta love this nugget from Redstate

Which is pretty incredible if the widespread reports of Republican enthusiasm and GOTV reaching levels not seen in at least a decade are accurate...perhaps it goes to show we cannot lose 70%+ of the minority vote anymore.

Gender gap apparently was visible too: men voted Romney, women, inexplicably supported Obama

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Last edited by Klaudandus on Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Klaudandus » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:15 pm

Paxen wrote:So how about Nate Silver getting every single state right?

Even over here there's been discussion about how the media has claimed the election was too close to call even though Silver has said for months that Obama had something like an 80% chance to win. Can't imagine that debate going away now, or that it shouldn't be even more important in the US.


Flex posted a great article on Nate Silver on the sports forums.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Flex » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:22 pm

Paxen wrote:So how about Nate Silver getting every single state right?

Even over here there's been discussion about how the media has claimed the election was too close to call even though Silver has said for months that Obama had something like an 80% chance to win. Can't imagine that debate going away now, or that it shouldn't be even more important in the US.


He started as baaseball statistics guy and faced the same push back and counter-arguments there that he did in politics. Numbers don't tell you everything, sometimes the gut test tells you more, etc. Just a bunch of old schoolers fighting against the young upstart in glasses.

The best part, as was pointed out, was he dabbles in probability. If Romney won he'd still be right as his model predicted a Romney win ~10% of the time.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Klaudandus » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:30 pm

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Re: Election 2012

Postby Skye1013 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:51 pm

Going to change the thread title to reflect that this is pretty much the politics thread and the 2012 election is officially over.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Brekkie » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:09 pm

I think the most important thing to look at here is what happened with Congress:

Democrats won every single Senate race that was competitive. Every single one. They expanded their Senate Majority by 2 seats, plus 1 additional Independent who caucuses with them.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans are trying to point to the fact that they retained their majority as evidence that there is no clear mandate in this election, but the Democrats gains seats there as well. It looks like the Democrats will gain a total of about 10 seats.
The Democrats had needed 25 seats to flip to gain the majority, but they were fighting uphill due to the fact that when all the Tea Party candidates were swept in in the 2010 mid-term elections a large number of State legislatures turned Republican as well, just in time to get to redraw all the district lines following the 2010 census. The Republican state legislatures happily gerrymandered the new districts for all they were worth, shoring up their weakest candidates and making many safe democrat seats exposed. The fact that Democrats not only defeated this move, but made gains in the house in the face of it, speaks volumes.
Many Tea Party freshmen representatives were thrown out of office. Even Michelle Bachmann barely held onto her seat by the skin of her teeth.


So the GOP can bitterly fight to the death and continue to refuse to compromise if they want to. But it is likely to be a losing strategy. The tide of disgust will likely continue in the next mid-term election 2 years from now.

Not to mention, the Democrats hold all the initiative. The Fiscal Cliff is coming. If the House Republicans refuse to compromise, the Democrats can simply let current law go into effect, and then just legislate middle class tax cuts immediately after the fact to make their agenda occur anyway. Republicans would suffer more from sequestration than Democrats would, so their hands are tied.
Meanwhile, Obamacare and Dodd-Frank financial regulation will go ahead as planned, with little the Republicans can do to stop it.

The popular vote (which Republican commentators were trying to take solace in prior to the West Coast being counted) has a 3 million lead for Obama and climbing.
Obama won by large margins in every single major demographic except rural white people over 45.

There is about as clear a mandate as you would ever likely see in American politics.
The GOP is going into an existential crisis. They have to do something, because the tide of demographics is against them, and will only get worse. If they stay the current course, they risk irrelevance.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Koatanga » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:42 pm

I heard that in many districts, the fastest-growing segment of the voting population (Hispanics) was 70% or greater in favour of Obama. That's devastating to the Republicans and will take generations to correct.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Melathys » Wed Nov 07, 2012 7:08 pm

I think America has shown we are a two party system. Given that, I think its time for one of the parties to disappear. I would be fine with Republicans going away and making room for Libertarians. At least Democrats continue to stand for what they've always stood for, Republicans not so much.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Aubade » Wed Nov 07, 2012 7:35 pm

I would like to see the Alternative vote implemented. I feel the 2 party system would all but wash away afterwards, but I doubt either of those 2 things will happen in my lifetime =[


I'm gonna go smoke some weed on the 6th of December lol.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby Flex » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:15 pm

Melathys wrote:I think America has shown we are a two party system. Given that, I think its time for one of the parties to disappear. I would be fine with Republicans going away and making room for Libertarians. At least Democrats continue to stand for what they've always stood for, Republicans not so much.


Much more likely to see a schism in the Republican party if the Serious Policy People ever stand up to the Social Issue Wing. Currently at this stalemate where the SPP pander to the SIW for votes and money but never really accomplishes anything the SIW wants done at a federal level.
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Re: Election 2012

Postby Skye1013 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:14 pm

Klaudandus wrote:Some of the right wing websites are going full derp mode after the election --

I've taken to unsubscribing from friends/relatives that are doing similar. Maybe not quite to the extent of the Tweets above, but Obama is officially in for another 4 years... get over it. Better yet... find a better candidate for next time.
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Re: Politics (formerly Election 2012)

Postby KysenMurrin » Thu Nov 08, 2012 1:58 am

Melathys wrote:At least Democrats continue to stand for what they've always stood for

Like slavery? ( ;) I kid, I kid! The parties really have changed drastically over the decades, though.)

Seriously though, the Republican Party does need to make some major changes if they want to win another Presidential election. Unless they just want to sit back and hope for the economy failing and a reactionary backlash against the Dems propelling them into the White House.
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