Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

Moderators: Fridmarr, Worldie, Aergis, theckhd

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby Awyndel » Fri Feb 18, 2011 10:40 am

Also inq puts up holy shield before you go into melee range, that's a nice bonus.
User avatar
Awyndel
 
Posts: 672
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2009 8:49 am
Location: The Netherlands

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby Mirydon » Tue Feb 22, 2011 9:08 am

The changes in 4.0.6 seem to have struck a nerve with me, I logged in twice since the patch.
I can do a bit of Excel, but MATLAB is way over my head. So unless then HoPo generation gets changed back, I'm not maintaining this anymore. I'm sorry.
Rune Weapon has defeated the hero of the Warmaul, Mogor! All hail Rune Weapon!
Mirydon
 
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2009 9:45 pm

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby Awyndel » Fri Feb 25, 2011 1:15 pm

Sticking with inq for the moment, no exorcism, using wings after 6 secs tricks damage wears off. It feels more stable, but I could be wrong.
User avatar
Awyndel
 
Posts: 672
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2009 8:49 am
Location: The Netherlands

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby Hrobertgar » Wed Mar 02, 2011 12:25 pm

I've noticed that the timer on some fights encourages wings off the bat. Magmaw normal certainly (haven't beaten Nef yet to try hardmodes); if I hit Div-plea + wings, then inquisition on the run in, I can generate a nice threat lead, and still have wings back up for the entire first exposed head phase.
Never Pug a random Troll Heroic, always wait for the guild group.

Hrobearina - 85 Healer - space goat
Hrobertgar - 85 Tank - human
Hrobernia - 85 Arcane - human
Hrobanka - 85 BM - elf
Hrobertgar
 
Posts: 704
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2011 2:42 pm

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby Vultras-ZDC » Sun Mar 06, 2011 5:27 pm

I am a little bit confused about this spreadsheet because I think you did not spend enough attention to some conditions that might change the numbers.
I think the main problem is that you cannot predict the venagance gain in a Boss-fight. Dodge, Parry an Block make it different every time. Moreover not all Bosses do 18k dps on you at the beginning of a fight.
The right time using SotR seems to make definitely the difference here.
The numbers are interesting but in my opinion it is impossible to constitute the best pull sequence with numbers that differ from fight to fight. I'll try to put my thougts into some graphs the next days. Please feel free to prove me wrong until then ;)
Vultras-ZDC
 
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 4:26 pm

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby Vultras-ZDC » Tue Mar 08, 2011 9:39 am

I think the duration of INQ at the beginning of the sequence was wrong. As you need an extra GCD to use it there are only 6 Seconds left after using AS. The duration of AW at the beginning of the fight now ends at 15,5 as there are 3 GCDs until the sequence starts.
I used to pull with the 2nd sequence because it felt best for me until now.
DP-EXO+J+AS-SHOR(DP)-CS-HW-CS-CONS-CS-(0,5 gap)J-SHOR(DP)-CS-AS-CS-J-CS-SHOR(DP)-CS-HW-CS-SHOR-CS-J

As you can see there isn't really a difference between both.

Image[/url]

The 2nd Graph shows how small difference is if you just let the first SHOR crit for 25k (without changing the average values of the rest). Of course this can also happen (with AS for example) in the INQ-Rotation.

Image[/url]

In my opinion it isn't necessary at all costs to pull with INQ. It seems to be another playstyle for me at the moment that may be better or worse depending on your raid stacking.
Vultras-ZDC
 
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 4:26 pm

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby theckhd » Tue Mar 08, 2011 12:43 pm

Have you updated the spreadsheet to reflect the new stacking/proccing mechanisms of SoT? Exorcism and AS now apply one stack of Censure and proc SoT, while Judgement applies two stacks and procs SoT twice. The faster stacking and extra damage from seal procs on J/AS/Exo might help the DP-Inq rotation more than the DP-SotR rotation.

<edit> You're wrong about the Inq/AW durations:
Code: Select all
-4.5  -4.0  -3.5  -3.0  -2.5  -2.0  -1.5  -1.0  -0.5  0.0 
Inq_______________Exo___________(AW)J________________AS__


Remember that t=0 is the AS cast. It's cast 4.5 seconds before t=0, so should end 12-4.5=7.5 seconds later, making the last affected cell t=7.25.

Similarly AW is cast right as Exo is ending, somewhere between -1.75 and -1.50 depending on lag. If you macro it to Judgement and cast during the latency period, you could argue that J and AW take effect at -1.50 simultaneously, leaving 20-1.5=18.5s on Avenging Wrath. So in fact, the spreadsheet is cutting off AW too soon; it should last until 18.25 instead of 16.75 (i.e. we shorted it by 1 GCD).

<edit #2> Also, the "if you let the first SotR crit" argument is fallacious. Sure, it could crit, bringing DP+SotR ahead. It could also not crit, putting it lower. And worse yet, it could miss, possibly several times in a row, which would make it much lower.

The only sensible thing to do is to look at the average damage it does, including hits, crits, and misses. Even this spreadsheet isn't doing that properly, because it takes the mean damage outcome of a single event, and doesn't consider recasts. That's why I think a simulation is in order, because the priority code can properly handle the full spectrum of cast sequence realizations.

But between the errors i cited above, and the fact that the SotR pull gives you a much higher variance on your threat output in the first few seconds, I don't think it's reasonable to claim that the DP+SotR pull is in any way better than the DP+Inq pull.
"Theck, Bringer of Numbers and Pounding Headaches," courtesy of Grehn|Skipjack.
MATLAB 5.x, Simcraft 6.x, Call to Arms 6.0, Talent Spec & Glyph Guide 5.x, Blog: Sacred Duty
User avatar
theckhd
Moderator
 
Posts: 7956
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 3:06 pm
Location: Harrisburg, PA

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby Vultras-ZDC » Tue Mar 08, 2011 4:19 pm

I had an argue with a Guildmate who wasn't really conviced what I told him about this Spreadsheet. We thought about possible tweaks and it ended in what you see here.
You are right about the AW/INQ-duration, I saw AV at t=-1.5. Then the DP-Inq semms to be little bit more ahead.

I took the SotR-crit to demonstrate the very small gap between both Graphs at the moment. I'll try to point it out better the next time.
Yes it could miss...just as well as an Inq-empowered EXO. It is not the same of course (Shield-miss is worse) but on the other hand your HP is still there and you can "fix" it with a 2nd SotR while Inq doesn't wait for you.
A miss of any ability right after the pull increases the preassure on the tank. As SotR(DP) has the highest output of course it has a higher variance on your threat output, absolutely right.

I don't think it's reasonable to claim that the DP+SotR pull is in any way better than the DP+Inq pull

I never wanted to say that ;)

I absolutely agree that a simulation will provide for clearness. The mistakes in my calculations for AW/INQ as well as the missing censure-stacks an SoT-procs will truely bring the DP-Inq-model in front but I still belive that it is closer as seems to be now between both.
Vultras-ZDC
 
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 4:26 pm

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby theckhd » Wed Mar 09, 2011 5:57 am

They're both undoubtedly very close. The reason I think the Inq pull is stronger overall has to do with something the spreadsheet doesn't account for (but a simulation could): failure rate.

DP-SotR puts a large amount of weight on hitting with SotR, which has up to a 28.5% failure rate on each cast.
DP-Inq depends on hitting with three different spells, all with low failure rates: Exo (9% max), Judgement and AS (both 8% max). Since none of those spells are affected by expertise, you have a much higher chance of landing any or all of them.
"Theck, Bringer of Numbers and Pounding Headaches," courtesy of Grehn|Skipjack.
MATLAB 5.x, Simcraft 6.x, Call to Arms 6.0, Talent Spec & Glyph Guide 5.x, Blog: Sacred Duty
User avatar
theckhd
Moderator
 
Posts: 7956
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 3:06 pm
Location: Harrisburg, PA

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby Awyndel » Fri Mar 11, 2011 4:15 am

Yeah inq is just the failsafe way to get some reliable threat in there AND have holy shield up.

I'm just wondering, should we still wait with AW till tricks/md bonus damage wears off?

Also wondering, with the changes to holy power generation, is shor-dp-shor viable again?
User avatar
Awyndel
 
Posts: 672
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2009 8:49 am
Location: The Netherlands

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby theckhd » Fri Mar 11, 2011 7:43 am

Awyndel wrote:I'm just wondering, should we still wait with AW till tricks/md bonus damage wears off?

It's probably still better to wait since they don't stack. It's 5% less damage for the first ~10(?) seconds, but 20% more damage for an additional ~10 seconds around the 30-second mark.

Awyndel wrote:Also wondering, with the changes to holy power generation, is shor-dp-shor viable again?

Probably not. The weakness of SotR-DP-SotR is not Holy Power generation, it's Sacred Duty. Since the second SotR never gets the benefit of Sacred Duty, it's barely better than J or AS. And you have to skip a Crusader Strike to do so, which makes it a slight damage loss under most circumstances. The GCD cost of DP makes it better suited to right before the pull, where that cost is irrelevant.
"Theck, Bringer of Numbers and Pounding Headaches," courtesy of Grehn|Skipjack.
MATLAB 5.x, Simcraft 6.x, Call to Arms 6.0, Talent Spec & Glyph Guide 5.x, Blog: Sacred Duty
User avatar
theckhd
Moderator
 
Posts: 7956
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 3:06 pm
Location: Harrisburg, PA

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby angelflavor » Sat Mar 12, 2011 12:14 am

I know this Thread is about Threat, but come 4.1 will any tank really considering using Seal of Truth over Seal of Insight? With the 50% nerf to Word of Glory you think the Self healing of Insight would be even more desired.

If Seal of Insight is still the "go to" seal then I think Eternal Glory will prove more threat for protection paladins then Seal of the Pure.
Image
Warning: Experimental Tank
"Warriors make you Sap. Paladins let you Sap"
User avatar
angelflavor
 
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:00 am

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby Awyndel » Sat Mar 12, 2011 6:51 am

I don't know about seals after 4.1. But I have been testing seal of truth in the current patch. While the healing is impressive. with seal+glyph I lost about 20% of my threat. And although many ppl say threat is not an issue, pick up threat is. So use with caution. Better to swap seals in mid combat, depending on how much damage u take, and how much threat u have.
User avatar
Awyndel
 
Posts: 672
Joined: Sat Feb 14, 2009 8:49 am
Location: The Netherlands

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby angelflavor » Sun Mar 13, 2011 12:33 pm

Awyndel wrote:I don't know about seals after 4.1. But I have been testing seal of truth in the current patch. While the healing is impressive. with seal+glyph I lost about 20% of my threat. And although many ppl say threat is not an issue, pick up threat is. So use with caution. Better to swap seals in mid combat, depending on how much damage u take, and how much threat u have.


I agree for the 1st 30 seconds of a fight that Seal of Truth is very useful, But after that Threat stops being an issue thanks to Vengeance. That's why I'm wondering if it's really worth Speccing into Seal of the Pure in 4.1 even after WoG nerf for something that most tanks only depend on for 30 seconds. Especially like you pointed out that many tanks seal swap after the pull and most fights last about 5 to 6 minutes.
Image
Warning: Experimental Tank
"Warriors make you Sap. Paladins let you Sap"
User avatar
angelflavor
 
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:00 am

Re: Calculation: Pull threat comparison

Postby theckhd » Sun Mar 13, 2011 6:31 pm

angelflavor wrote:I agree for the 1st 30 seconds of a fight that Seal of Truth is very useful, But after that Threat stops being an issue thanks to Vengeance. That's why I'm wondering if it's really worth Speccing into Seal of the Pure in 4.1 even after WoG nerf for something that most tanks only depend on for 30 seconds. Especially like you pointed out that many tanks seal swap after the pull and most fights last about 5 to 6 minutes.


I'm not sure I follow your logic here. Let me rephrase your argument:

1) Threat only matters in the first 30 seconds.
2) Therefore, we shouldn't spec SotP because all it gives us is single-target threat.
3) Instead we should spec Eternal Glory, which due WoG's new cooldown, translates into... single-target threat?

Worse yet, we're probably only using WoG when threat's already established, meaning it's single-target threat that's available when we need it least. At least SotP's extra threat is there during the part where threat matters.

I'm not sure that makes a compelling argument for EG over SotP.
"Theck, Bringer of Numbers and Pounding Headaches," courtesy of Grehn|Skipjack.
MATLAB 5.x, Simcraft 6.x, Call to Arms 6.0, Talent Spec & Glyph Guide 5.x, Blog: Sacred Duty
User avatar
theckhd
Moderator
 
Posts: 7956
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 3:06 pm
Location: Harrisburg, PA

PreviousNext

Return to Advanced Theorycraft and Calculations

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Exabot [Bot] and 1 guest

cron

Who is online

In total there are 2 users online :: 1 registered, 0 hidden and 1 guest (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
Most users ever online was 380 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:28 pm

Users browsing this forum: Exabot [Bot] and 1 guest