Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby knaughty » Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:59 pm

theckhd wrote:My talent spec guide for 4.0 is now updated


Jesus, you aren't kidding.

I just shipped an updated to the basic FAQ - want to go sanity check it?

Reading yours now.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Klaudandus » Tue Oct 12, 2010 5:05 pm

knaughty wrote:
theckhd wrote:Also, Knaughty you should take a look at it as well to make sure that it jives with your advanced guide. I'm of the opinion that GC is still worth taking.

Part of the reason I'm discounting Grand Crusader right now is that it's easy to use incorrectly.

If you don't spec it, you can learn 939 without the EastToUseIncorrectlyGrCproc. While there's a theoretical advantage to speccing GrC, the chance that you'll actually use it right if you're new to 939 this week is pretty slim.

The DPS numbers from the proc are a lot better than I was expecting, so GC might end up in my basic guide at some point. The basic guide has also been updated already to state that GrC will be in my advanced guide as a talent to use, but that it is complicated to use right.


I asked this in another thread

What is more likely to happen, that is redesigned because of how counterintuitive GC is vis a vis S&B -or- balanced around GC being subpar because of its mechanics and the rigidity of the 939 rotation (which is many times worse than 969) and transfer some of the loss tps (from always using GC on proc) somewhere else, even tho it further reduces its value?

This is the thing, thanks to theck and to other great people on this board, we know how GC can be bad/misused -- but the vast majority of paladin tanks have no idea of this, they will just see it proc (thank you built in power aura wannabe) and fire it.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Marblehead » Wed Oct 13, 2010 2:23 am

I have one question, cause I think I'm missing something. Isn't HotR a better option than CS for single target fights for now (i.e. patch 4.0.1)?

Looking at the ability damage breakdown a few pages back,
theckhd wrote:
Code: Select all
                Damage
Ability    Raw    Net  Glyph
CS        4063   3743   3912
HotR       606    559    615
HaNova    4912   4321      0

it's clear that the summary of the 2 HotR components is larger than CS (even if glyphed). Have the numbers changed? I'm asking because every 4.0.1 rotation guide I read has the optimal rotation using CS.

Furthermore, looking at those numbers, it seems that the HotR glyph doesn't affect the AoE component of HotR. However, the glyph analysis states:
theckhd wrote:...

HotR is another incredibly potent glyph, and will likely be the go-to Prime for aoe fights given that SotR and SoT are less attractive.
...

HotR is a very strong AoE glyph
...

So, does the glyph affect the AoE component or not? Also, if it is, wouldn't that give it a more solid advantage over CS for single target?

To be clear, I'm talking about the period from 4.0.1 till 4.0.3. Even if HotR is indeed better than CS, I'm expecting CS to pull ahead while leveling up in Cata.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:42 am

Thanks, that was an oversight on my part. I had to hard-code the glyphed portions, and simply forgot to include HammerNova. I'm posting updated stats now on the first page (I'm not going to bother to continue updating the posts buried deep in the thread, the goal is for the first page to contain everything of relevance).


As for your intuition about HotR, I think you're right. I never really thought about the fact that HotR might hit harder than CS for single targets, but with the new AP scaling it certainly seems to.

We should get someone to double-check this on live though, just to make sure. If someone could parse about 20-30 CS's and HotR's on a boss-level dummy (don't worry about splash, it won't affect anything), that would confirm things.

In all likelihood this will depend heavily on AP scaling. CS scales as AP/14*2.4, or 0.1714*AP, but is affected by armor. The melee portion of HotR gets a little less than 1/3 of that (still affected by armor, but not weapon-normalized), while the Nova portion gets a whopping 0.187*AP (plus another 11.24% for being spell damage, and not affected by armor).

If you merge those factors together (0.665 for phys dmg, 1.1124 for spell), you get 0.1140*AP for CS, 0.0228 for the physical portion of Hammer, and 0.208 for the Nova portion, for a total of 0.2308*AP for Hammer.

This also means that unless Hammer is ahead by ~700 damage, CS will pull ahead when Vengeance AP isn't active.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:10 am

Just re-checking the other sims, here's what changes when you use HotR instead of CS as your 3-second ability:

Talents: WotL drops to around 90 DPS per point (from 272), Crusade jumps up to 93 (from 74). Rule of Law goes up to 39 (from 30), but that's irrelevant at 80. Everything else unchanged.

Glyphs: HotR essentially unchanged. Seal of Truth increases to around 200 (from 175). CS obviously becomes worthless. Everything else unchanged.

Stat scaling is coming up in the next post.
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Postby theckhd » Wed Oct 13, 2010 10:15 am

Stat Comparison

Setup:
Talents: 0/31/5 with all prot damage talents + Crusade
Glyphs: SoT/ShoR/HotR Prime, AS major.
Seal: SoT
Gear: T10 sample set
Code: calc_statscaling.m

Note that I've changed the glyphs here, previous sets used ShoR/J/CS, but since SoT is so much stronger I've chosen to start using a different default configuration. The CS glyph is a small enough effect that it won't make a difference. HotR makes no difference for CS calculations, obviously.

In this sim, I calculate DPS for a range of STR values (we'll call this the "primary" stat). I then add the equivalent of 10 itemization points of one "secondary" stat (i.e. an epic gem, so 10 STR/AGI/INT/STA, 20 AP, 23 SP, etc.), and recalculate DPS. The difference between the two values is the improvement that those 10 itemization points granted us. By doing this for all of the relevant stats on our gear, I can construct a plot of how each of those stats scales with the primary stat.

I then repeat this calculation using Hit and Expertise as the primary stats. This gives us a fairly broad overview of how our DPS scales with different stats.

For this simulation, I have enforced certain caps on particular stats. I've ensured that we're below melee hit, expertise, and mastery caps for the nominal value on the STR plots, so that when we try and add 10 points worth of those stats we don't get a result of zero.

First, let's look at the STR plot. For reference, the "Armory Strength" (i.e. unbuffed) of the gear set is 1830.

Image
HotR graph

This was a bit of an eye opener. We're used to expertise and hit being good for threat, but we're not used to Strength being so far behind them. In Cataclysm, we've lost several talents that overemphasized STR, and it shows.

From this plot, we can divide stats into approximately 3 "tiers" of worth. The first tier is Expertise and Hit, which are both excellent threat stats.

Strength is now hanging out in tier 2 with Crit, AP, Stamina, and Agility, all of which fall between 1-1.4 DPS per itemization point. The value of crit has increased since Wrath since all of our abilities are now capable of critting (previously Consecration and Censure aka Holy Vengeance could not crit - in 4.0.1 both can). Despite not gaining AP from Agility, the increase to crit effectiveness has kept it competitive. And thanks to Vengeance, Stamina is actually as good a threat stat as Agility.

The third tier consists of Haste, which is far ahead of its comrades Mastery, Spellpower, and Intellect. Haste has seen a significant increase since Wrath due to a combination of Censure haste-scaling and Reckoning. It's low enough that we wouldn't consider it part of the second tier (ages 10 and up!), but it's still a far cry better than SP or Intellect.

Mastery is only a threat stat due to Reckoning. It's certainly not something you'd ever stack for threat, but since we will be stacking it to reach block cap, it's nice to know that we're getting some multitasking out of it.

I'd also like to point out that we reach the mastery cap somewhere around 2450 STR (due to the parry increase), at which point mastery linearly decreases down to 0. Note that a similar effect is happening in the Agility curve; by increasing Agility while close to or above the mastery cap, we're also "nullifying" some of our mastery as a threat stat. One way to think of it is that we're pushing that extra block % off of the attack table, lowering our Reckoning DPS.

The "HotR graph" linked below is calculated using HotR instead of CS as our 3-second spam ability. Note that the curves are basically identical. Again, this is for single targets, not AoE - I hope to have some information on that later this week.


Next, let's look at Hit Rating as a primary stat:

Image
HotR graph

The only interesting feature on this plot is the hit rating curve, which nose-dives right at the 8% melee hit cap. While in Wrath, we still saw a moderate benefit from hit above 8%, the combination of 6% spell hit from talents and a significant reduction in the amount of our DPS subject to spell hit has made the benefit over cap essentially zero. So like many DPS classes, hit rating below the cap will be one of our best threat stats, while anything above the cap is wasted.

The HotR graph shows a slightly different story. Because of HotR's HammerNova component, spell hit is still somewhat useful, landing hit rating somewhere between tier 2 and tier 3 when above the cap. However, the 6% spell hit we get from talents makes this region very short, and after 9% melee hit it starts dropping to zero.


Finally, let's look at the Expertise graph:

Image
HotR graph

Even though there's only one line on this plot that has anything interesting to say, it may be the most interesting of all of the plots in this post. By now we knew that Expertise was going to be a big threat stat for us, and some of you may already have caught on to what this plot tells us when you saw the Strength graph. But this plot makes that point loud and clear - even above the dodge soft-cap of 26, expertise is a better threat stat than Strength. In fact, it remains our best or second-best (depending on whether you're hit-capped) threat stat all the way up to 55 expertise, at which point it quickly plummets through tier 2 and tier 3 on its way to zero.

The times, they are a-changing. A year ago expertise was a mediocre threat stat for us, then in 3.2 and 3.3 it became our best threat stat up until the dodge soft-cap, and now it's our best threat stat until you nearly reach the hard-cap. Who'd have guessed?

Again, there's little else of interest on this plot as far as the other stats go. You can see some slight scaling of several stats on the hit and expertise plots, which is expected. The HotR graph looks nearly identical as well.

TLDR Summary:
  • Expertise and Hit are our best DPS stats. When gearing for DPS/threat, you should be aiming for 8% hit and a minimum of 26 expertise. From that point on, stack expertise until around 55, after that stack Strength.
  • Crit, AP, Agility, and Stamina all give almost as much DPS as strength. For gearing purposes, they're all approximately equal, though Strength has a slight lead.
  • Haste is a mediocre threat stat, and Mastery/SP/Intellect are all weak threat stats. Don't stack any of them.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby AriKT » Wed Oct 13, 2010 10:29 am

Not sure if things changed between yesterday and today. But, I'm not seeing a large amount of scaling from spell power on HotR. Looks like 10% at best.

Also, the T10 2PC isn't effecting the AoE component. This is easy to test because the effect would add significant damage to it.

Numbers also seem to imply ~10% AP coefficient on the AoE. Things don't add up perfectly, but there pretty close. Its also possible that the Glyph isn't working, because my numbers add up pretty well then.

Also, wouldn't the CS AP scaling be:

120%*190%*2.4*AP/14 = 39.09% before Armor DR

Assuming an Armor of 13080*(88%) = 11513 = ~43% Armor DR

Results in a 22.26% AP scaling.

Running the same calc with a 10% AP coefficient on HotR results in:

18.10% AP Scaling (with Crusade and Glyph of HotR)
20.69% AP Scaling (with Crusade, Glyph of HotR, and T10 2PC)

I didn't factor in Spell Power from Touched by the Light. I'm not even sure if it even applies. But, should be able to test it with Blessing of Might? Not many ways to up AP without Strength for testing.

Need to do some more testing when I get some time, just did some quick stuff on my lunch break.

Also, with a 277 Last Word HotR > CS but not by much. However, with a 264 Gutbuster (sorry, no 277 DPS weapon yet) then CS is slightly ahead of HotR.

Another thing to consider is using the PvP Hands for 5% CS increase.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:05 am

From the testing we did in the Call to Arms thread, HotR's SP scaling is now 0. It only scales with AP.

Do you have data demonstrating the T10 2-piece? Again, in the Call to Arms thread we concluded that it was affecting the AoE component.

You're right, I left out a factor of 1.6 (due to WotL) on CS, which would bring it up to 0.1824*AP, still less than the 0.2308*AP I worked out for HotR. I've ignored Crusade because we only care about relative scaling, and it affects both equally.

If you want the exact values, they should be:

CS_damage=1.2*(weapon-normalized AP dps)*(Crusade)*(WotL)*(armor damage reduction)
CS_damage=1.2*(2.4/14)*(1.3)*(1.6)*(0.665)
CS_damage=0.2846*AP

HotR_damage=0.3*(non-normalized AP DPS)*(Crusade)*(armor damage reduction)+(AoE AP coefficient)*(Crusade)*(spell damage factor)
HotR_damage=(0.0296 + 0.2704)*AP
HotR_damage=0.3001*AP

Also note that if both components are equally effected by the T10 2-piece (1.2) and the glyph (1.1), it could bring that up as high as 0.3961*AP.

On a dummy they'll probably come out very close. However, with a full stack of Vengeance you gain about 6k AP, and the higher AP scaling of HotR should pull it ahead.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby d503 » Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:11 am

theckhd wrote:From the testing we did in the Call to Arms thread, HotR's SP scaling is now 0. It only scales with AP.

Do you have data demonstrating the T10 2-piece? Again, in the Call to Arms thread we concluded that it was affecting the AoE component.

You're right, I left out a factor of 1.6 (due to WotL) on CS, which would bring it up to 0.1824*AP, still less than the 0.2308*AP I worked out for HotR. I've ignored Crusade because we only care about relative scaling, and it affects both equally.

If you want the exact values, they should be:

CS_damage=1.2*(weapon-normalized AP dps)*(Crusade)*(WotL)*(armor damage reduction)
CS_damage=1.2*(2.4/14)*(1.3)*(1.6)*(0.665)
CS_damage=0.2846*AP

HotR_damage=0.3*(non-normalized AP DPS)*(Crusade)*(armor damage reduction)+(AoE AP coefficient)*(Crusade)*(spell damage factor)
HotR_damage=(0.0296 + 0.2704)*AP
HotR_damage=0.3001*AP

Also note that if both components are equally effected by the T10 2-piece (1.2) and the glyph (1.1), it could bring that up as high as 0.3961*AP.

On a dummy they'll probably come out very close. However, with a full stack of Vengeance you gain about 6k AP, and the higher AP scaling of HotR should pull it ahead.


Should we consider these in a raid environment as well, with fully debuffed (CoE, Sunder, etc) bosses? That might be overthinking it, considering that the gap between the two is likely to be lessened that much by raid buffs.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby AriKT » Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:15 am

I just messed around during my lunch. I didn't get data, but its pretty obvious the T10 2PC wasn't working. The HotR AoE without it on was the same as with it on and ~1300 damage. Adding the T10 2PC would have been obvious in a few uses of the ability, but the damage ranges were very close.

Also, I've noticed that it looks like the 30% from Crusader and 60% from Wrath are additive and not multiplicative. I could be wrong but numbers work out closer. I'm using some basic calculations to work things out.

CS_damage=1.2*(weapon-normalized AP dps)*(Crusade + WotL)*(armor damage reduction)

The above seems to work out closer, but my sample set is small.

With 4281 AP, my HotR AoE was hitting for about 1350 to 1600 with Crusade, WotL, Glyph of HotR, and T10 2PC. The damage ranges were the same when I swapped out the T10 2PC. Even with the range on damage on the ability the 2PC should have been a fair amount higher. I'll run some data when I get off work.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:18 am

d503 wrote:Should we consider these in a raid environment as well, with fully debuffed (CoE, Sunder, etc) bosses? That might be overthinking it, considering that the gap between the two is likely to be lessened that much by raid buffs.

Those are calculated in a raid environment. The spell damage factor incorporates CoE, and the armor mitigation factor incorporates Sunder.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:22 am

AriKT wrote:I just messed around during my lunch. I didn't get data, but its pretty obvious the T10 2PC wasn't working. The HotR AoE without it on was the same as with it on and ~1300 damage. Adding the T10 2PC would have been obvious in a few uses of the ability, but the damage ranges were very close.


This could be a legitimate change from the PTR to Live. I'll see if anyone on live can parse this out for us.

AriKT wrote:Also, I've noticed that it looks like the 30% from Crusader and 60% from Wrath are additive and not multiplicative. I could be wrong but numbers work out closer. I'm using some basic calculations to work things out.

CS_damage=1.2*(weapon-normalized AP dps)*(Crusade + WotL)*(armor damage reduction)

The above seems to work out closer, but my sample set is small.


I doubt it. You're looking for the difference between 1.3*1.6=2.08 and (1.3+0.6)=1.9. That's going to be hard to see without a reasonably large data set. Our extensive testing in the Call to Arms thread didn't show any error in the CS scaling with AP, as far as I remember. It's also the sort of thing they'd be unlikely to change going from the PTR to live.

AriKT wrote:With 4281 AP, my HotR AoE was hitting for about 1350 to 1600 with Crusade, WotL, Glyph of HotR, and T10 2PC. The damage ranges were the same when I swapped out the T10 2PC. Even with the range on damage on the ability the 2PC should have been a fair amount higher. I'll run some data when I get off work.


Yeah, please do. If you can get two parses (with and w/o T102PC) of about 50 swings, that should do it. You can speed up data taking by hitting multiple dummies at once with the AoE portion.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby AriKT » Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:29 am

I'll run some logs later today. But, unless I'm delusional the HotR AoE coefficient is much lower than .187. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you mean by AoE AP Coefficient. For 4281 AP with Crusade, Glyph, and T10 2PC, my bottom end damage HotR should be around 2K using a .187, and I was hitting for 1350 at times.

I'll need to do some more testing with the CS thing. What I do is work out formulas, then I go hit a dummy for a while and take the lowest damage hit and compare it to the lowest possible hit with the formula. Using 1.3*1.6, I was getting a couple hits under my calculation. But, its possible my numbers are off a little bit.
Last edited by AriKT on Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby d503 » Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:31 am

theckhd wrote:
d503 wrote:Should we consider these in a raid environment as well, with fully debuffed (CoE, Sunder, etc) bosses? That might be overthinking it, considering that the gap between the two is likely to be lessened that much by raid buffs.

Those are calculated in a raid environment. The spell damage factor incorporates CoE, and the armor mitigation factor incorporates Sunder.


Always 72 steps ahead of us ;) Thanks!
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby towelliee » Wed Oct 13, 2010 1:15 pm

So is the verdict still CS over Hotr for Single Target rotation?
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