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Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Phonic » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:20 am

Kelaan wrote:I like that idea. Respeccing at 85 for more CD reduction sounds good.



Sorry, you can't really skip SotT as a talent. We need the 9 sec reduction in AS CD in order for it to fit our 939. I guess you can try to solely rely on GC procs, but that would defeat the purpose of the proc if you had to wait to fit it in anyways (just like now).
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Rhiannon » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:21 am

Phonic wrote:
Arjuna wrote: Grand Crusader? Really? I was under the impression it only has 3xCS to proc and then it's useless for another 3xCS?


I'm a bit confused as to what you're asking... but I'll take a shot :P I think you might be thinking of SotR, which takes 3xCS to generate 3HoPo for max strength. Grand Crusader is the talent that allows the Cooldown of your Avenger's Shield to reset, thus allowing you to "use it anytime".

But as mentioned multiple times in this thread, the only time to properly weave it in without messing with the ST rotation is subbing it for a HW. Otherwise, it can be used for add pick up, silence/interrupt utility, or just plain frisbee throwing fun :D


He means that if it doesn't proc off certain Crusader Strikes then the proc's wasted anyway as AS will be off CD by the time you get a gap in the rotation.

e.g.

CS
J
CS
AS
CS <- proc now would be useful
ShoR
CS <- proc now would be useful
J
CS <- proc now would be useful
X <- AS if GC's procced, else Cons or HW
CS <- proc now is useless
ShoR
CS <- proc now is useless
J
CS <- proc now is useless
AS <- AS is off CD either way

That's following the 3hpShoR>CS>J>AS>Cons>HW priority. So yes, only half your CS generate a useable proc in this priority, but that still doesn't necessarily mean that GC is worth less DPS than any of the other options (the delta between AS and cons or HW is fairly significant), so no reason to doubt theck's numbers.

Edit: Correcting this so no one takes the wrong thing from it, as per Theck's comments.

CS
J
CS
AS
CS <- proc now would be useful
ShoR
CS <- proc now would be useful
J
CS <- proc now would be useful
X1 <- AS if GC's procced, else Cons or HW
CS <- proc now is useless, unless X1 was AS
ShoR
CS <- proc now is useless, unless X1 was AS
J
CS <- proc now is useless, unless X1 was AS
X2 <- AS is off CD if X1 wasn't AS, or if GC procced in the last three CS
Last edited by Rhiannon on Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Arjuna » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:27 am

Phonic wrote:
Arjuna wrote: Grand Crusader? Really? I was under the impression it only has 3xCS to proc and then it's useless for another 3xCS?


I'm a bit confused as to what you're asking... but I'll take a shot :P I think you might be thinking of SotR, which takes 3xCS to generate 3HoPo for max strength. Grand Crusader is the talent that allows the Cooldown of your Avenger's Shield to reset, thus allowing you to "use it anytime".

But as mentioned multiple times in this thread, the only time to properly weave it in without messing with the ST rotation is subbing it for a HW. Otherwise, it can be used for add pick up, silence/interrupt utility, or just plain frisbee throwing fun :D

no no, I don't mean ShoR :P

I was under the impression it was ...-CS-J-CS-AS-CS-HotR-CS-J-CS-HW-CS-ShoR-CS-J-CS-AS-CS-... and that it was only during those three bolded CS that the proc really mattered, if it were the other three it was wasted because there is no room to use it before the cooldown would be up anyway...
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Phonic » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:41 am

Ah, i get what you're saying. Yeah, that's been another stated issue :p
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby theckhd » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:15 am

#1: Glyph analysis is up.
Image

#2: RE: SoI: I actually made a comment about this in the glyph analysis (not that you could have read it before now, of course, but I figured the question would come up eventually):
SoT still reigns supreme as our highest-damage glyph for single targets. There's been a lot of talk about tanking with Seal of Insight, but it's worth noting that in these sims, Censure alone is responsible for around 725 DPS, and SoT procs are worth around 450-470. So by tanking with Seal of Insight, you're trading around 1200 DPS (and presumably a threat loss) for more healing.


So that's about 1200 DPS out of ~8k, or 15%.

#3: RE: Grand Crusader and Arjuna's model.

The model is wrong, and the reason I know is that it's the first thing I tried when I wrote the analytical 939 model. :lol:

When I compared it to the results of the priority sim, I was getting a weight factor difference between the two on AS that was significant enough to investigate further.

The reasoning is in the model post that I linked:
Avenger's Shield, Holy Wrath, and Consecration
Grand Crusader makes dealing with the "X" in the rotation a bit complicated. It's not as simple as just saying "we cast AS every other cycle, and Holy Wrath in the alternate ones if we don't get a GC proc." This is because if you do get a GC proc, you've put AS on cooldown and the next cycle becomes the "HW if no GC" portion.

Instead, you have to ask the question, "for any given cycle, what's the chance that AS will be off of cooldown when X occurs." It's fairly easy to figure this out, starting from an initial cycle where AS is not on cooldown.

Let p be the probability that GC procs at least once in three Crusader strikes (i.e. 1-0.8^3). q=1-p as before. We could then write a table like this:

Code: Select all
Iteration     p(AS)        q(AS)
1              1             0
2              p             q
3            q+p^2        1-q^2-p^2
4         1-q^2-qp^2       q^2+qp^2
5       q^3+q^2*p^2+p    q-q^2*p^2-q^3


While it may not be immediately obvious from the table because I've simplified expressions, there's actually a pattern here. The element in the p(AS) column of row N is always p times the p(AS) element in row N-1 plus the element in q(AS) of row N-1. In other words, it's

p(AS,N)=p*(probability that AS was cast on previous X) + (probability AS was not cast on previous X)

p(AS,N)=p*p(AS,N-1)+q(AS,N-1)

Again, this might converge, but it's ugly enough that I'd rather do it numerically. I just use this rule to generate the table down through 50 iterations and define P=p(AS,50) as the probability we cast AS in X. Actually, I'm defining mean(p(AS,49:50)) as the probability, because if you don't spec Grand Crusader, the method "screws up" a bit and alternates between 0 and 1. Taking the mean short-circuits this to give us the proper value of 0.5.


Essentially, the error in your model is that if Grand Crusader procs, the CS's that Rhiannon has marked "proc is now useless" are in fact useful, because they're exactly the same as the ones he's marked "proc now would be useful." That's because GC doesn't give you a "free" AS that's independent of the 15-second cooldown; instead it resets the cooldown.
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Arjuna » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:24 am

theckhd wrote:<snip snap lots of fun stuff>

Essentially, the error in your model is that if Grand Crusader procs, the CS's that Rhiannon has marked "proc is now useless" are in fact useful, because they're exactly the same as the ones he's marked "proc now would be useful." That's because GC doesn't give you a "free" AS that's independent of the 15-second cooldown; instead it resets the cooldown.

Well, yeah, I was talking about when GC doesn't proc in the first three CSes, the next three won't matter if it procs or not. But as you say, if it does, then those three can proc a useful proc again because it basically resets the rotation...
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby theckhd » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:27 am

Right, but the only accurate way to model it is to get the steady-state values. Certain instances (like the one you described) will make those 3 CS's useless for GC procs, but others won't. The steady-state model takes this into account properly by only modeling one cycle of CS-J-CS-X-CS-ShoR
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Arjuna » Tue Oct 12, 2010 11:46 am

Just feels so strange though, that GC ends up at that spot when compared to the others. Is it really that big a damage difference when used over HW with less than 50% proc rate?

Guess it is :)


geh, 50% might be some bad math from my side though...I haven't studied probabilities in aaaaaaaaaaaages!
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby theckhd » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:14 pm

No, that's about right. The proc chance from three CS's is 1-(0.8)^3, or around 0.488.

The real reason for the difference is this:
Image

When fully Vengeance'd, AS hits over twice as hard, and over three times as hard if glyphed.
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Arjuna » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:25 pm

theckhd wrote:No, that's about right. The proc chance from three CS's is 1-(0.8)^3, or around 0.488.

The real reason for the difference is this:
Image

When fully Vengeance'd, AS hits over twice as hard, and over three times as hard if glyphed.

ha ha ha ha

now it makes more sense, didn't expect AS to be as high as 75% of ShoR... :)


But I'll still wait for cata before I spec GC... :P
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Klaudandus » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:48 pm

The thing that bothers me the most, and the reason why I agree with others on why GC will eventually be changed, is how counter intuitive it actually is -- is the total opposite of S&B.

People on this forum now know, thanks to Theck's efforts, that it can be a dps loss specially when prioritizing it over a CS, but the vast majority of the paladin tank population don't come to this place.

So it's either changed and people can get more use out of GC, or we're balanced on the assumption that it's a subpar ability and we're buffed somewhere else to make up for the dps/tps loss of, the majority of the population, casting it on proc.
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby towelliee » Tue Oct 12, 2010 1:07 pm

Speaking of SoT does our expertise soft cap change at all. And does SoT glyph go down if we are already soft capped?
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Arees » Tue Oct 12, 2010 1:18 pm

towelliee wrote:Speaking of SoT does our expertise soft cap change at all. And does SoT glyph go down if we are already soft capped?


The caps should remain the same. 26 and 56 (it is 56 right?). The only thing that changes is the amount of rating required to get to that level....

I know though that they were talking about giving bosses "expertise" so that each tier requires more just like they are doing with hit, but I haven't heard anything about that in months so I don't know if its still planned or not.
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Phonic » Tue Oct 12, 2010 1:24 pm

towelliee wrote:Speaking of SoT does our expertise soft cap change at all. And does SoT glyph go down if we are already soft capped?


Go to theck's 4.X Matlab thread... he explains more details there. Essentially SoT glyph is good until something crazy like 53 exp.
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Re: Tanking Rotation in Cataclysm

Postby Klaudandus » Tue Oct 12, 2010 1:26 pm

WATERBOYsh wrote:
towelliee wrote:Speaking of SoT does our expertise soft cap change at all. And does SoT glyph go down if we are already soft capped?


The caps should remain the same. 26 and 56 (it is 56 right?). The only thing that changes is the amount of rating required to get to that level....

I know though that they were talking about giving bosses "expertise" so that each tier requires more just like they are doing with hit, but I haven't heard anything about that in months so I don't know if its still planned or not.


Ghostcrawler wrote:You're too focused on hit alone.

This piece of gear wouldn't exist, but to save me from having to make three versions, consider this series of boots:

Level 83 quest blues with 10 attack power, 10 Stamina, 10 crit, 10 hit, 10 parry.
Level 85 quest blues with 12 attack power, 12 Stamina, 12 crit, 12 hit, 12 parry.
Level 85 tier 1 raid with 14 attack power, 14 Stamina, 14 crit, 14 hit, 14 parry.
Level 85 tier 2 raid with 16 attack power, 16 Stamina, 16 crit, 16 hit, 16 parry.

When yo go from level 83 to level 85 you stay at the same amount of power relative to creatures. Why? Because the creatures are gaining levels. Their health goes up, so you need that extra AP. Their damage goes up, so you need that extra health. Your chance to crit and hit and parry them goes down, so you need those stats as well.

So far, so good.

When you start raiding, the bosses are level 88. This makes them a little harder to hit and everything, so you need that extra budget on your gear to keep up. Still not a problem.

Now let's look at the final piece of gear. You're going from a tier 1 raid to a tier 2 raid. The boss hits harder so you need that health. The boss has more health, so you need that attack power. But the boss is still level 88 like he was in tier 1. This means you crit him more than the previous boss, because your crit went up. You do more damage to the harder boss than to the easier boss. You also hit him more (unless you're hit capped, which you probably are) and you parry him more.

We solved, in an awkward way, the parry problem in Icecrown by putting a debuff on you. That basically allowed the creatures to scale with your gear. We couldn't solve the crit or hit problems, so players just became more and more powerful and eventually capped those stats (or got close to it in the case of crit). Just as players are often very worried (and sometimes rightfully so) about not scaling with gear, the bosses were not scaling with your gear. All of those problems that can happen to players when their damage (or healing or tanking) don't scale were happening to the bosses. You were scaling too well with crit, hit and parry.

A different way to go would be that the tier 2 raid boss is actually level 89 or 90 instead of level 88. Then you'd naturally need more crit and hit and parry to face him. That makes intuitive sense, but it does some weird things to our game because creature levels were never intended to be used that way. For example, the boss would get crushing blows and resists. Even worse, it does weird things to the next tier of content. If Deathwing at the end of Cataclysm (spoiler!) is a level 93 boss, then what is the first boss at the end of the next expansion? Level 93? Level 90? Level 96?

Instead, we are just faking the bosses gaining levels. We haven't worked out the exact mechanic yet, but imagine they are level 88++ or level 88.3 or level 88 SKULL SKULL BAD SKULL. As you get more powerful and get better gear, they get more powerful... exactly like all those bosses you handled while leveling up. Rather than critting and hitting the more dangerous opponents more often, your relative power stays about the same. You scale.


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