Avoidance Misconception

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Avoidance Misconception

Postby Doxa » Fri Aug 27, 2010 3:49 pm

So.. I'm debating with a friend how avoidance works and I'm trying to think of a helpful way to explain to him that his view of it is wrong (god forbid mine is! ;-)

Can someone offer a helpful response to this.

At 50% avoidance, that 1% parry is actually a 2% decreased chance to be hit.


As I said in my previous post, you cannot think of 1% avoidance as 1% avoidance. It's not. If I'm at 50% avoidance, and I've got 4-5% more avoidance than you, I'm getting hit 7-10% less often than you are.


The best I could come up with so far was:

I'm trying to think of a helpful way to explain why your view of how avoidance works is not accurate. The best I can do right now is to remind you that each attack is a new event. Your chance to parry is not affected by previous attacks. Every attack you have the same chance to avoid (less any strange procs, trinkets, CD, etc.) That means that over the course of the encounter a 1% avoidance difference will result in an actual avoidance difference of 1% as long as the sample size is large enough.


While I don't think what he's saying is inaccurate I'm trying to distinguish how it is a misleading way to think about it.
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Re: Avoidance Misconception

Postby Fridmarr » Fri Aug 27, 2010 3:51 pm

This has what you need: http://evilempireguild.org/guides/avoidance.php

Contextual Excerpt
On the other hand avoidance scales faster the more you have. To illustrate this, we consider how often you are HIT, not how often you AVOID. With 30% avoidance, as one poster suggested, you have a 70% chance to be hit. With 50% avoidance, you have a 50% chance to be hit. 50 is roughly 71% of 70 - what this means is, you are being hit 29% less frequently with 50% avoidance than with 70% avoidance, not 20% less frequently as one might suppose. To illustrate how this scales in an accellerating manner, consider also the difference between 50% avoidance and 70% avoidance. 30 is exactly 60% of 50, so you are being hit 40% less frequently with 70% avoidance than with 50% avoidance. A much greater improvement than going from 30% to 50%.
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Re: Avoidance Misconception

Postby Doxa » Fri Aug 27, 2010 4:09 pm

I hate being wrong.

lol
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Re: Avoidance Misconception

Postby Gamingdevil » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:23 am

You're not really wrong. He's just looking at it from a relative point of view; comparing the extra avoidance to the amount of you'll be taking relative to how many you're already taking.

You are of course right, that every attack is a new event. But over the course of a fight, 1% avoidance while already having 50% will result in 2% fewer hits compared to just having 50%.
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Re: Avoidance Misconception

Postby Leuthas » Sat Sep 04, 2010 5:54 pm

Excerpt of the Excerpt:
you are being hit 29% less frequently with 50% avoidance than with 70% avoidance

Is this saying you're hit less frequently with 50% avoidance than with 70% avoidance?

What? Typo?

It must be, I see 50% = 71% of 70% therefore you will be hit (100% - 71% = 29%) more frequently with 50% avoidance than with 70% avoidance.

This one doesn't make any sense to me:
30 is exactly 60% of 50, so you are being hit 40% less frequently with 70% avoidance than with 50% avoidance.
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Re: Avoidance Misconception

Postby theckhd » Sun Sep 05, 2010 12:33 pm

Leuthas wrote:Excerpt of the Excerpt:
you are being hit 29% less frequently with 50% avoidance than with 70% avoidance

Is this saying you're hit less frequently with 50% avoidance than with 70% avoidance?

What? Typo?

It must be, I see 50% = 71% of 70% therefore you will be hit (100% - 71% = 29%) more frequently with 50% avoidance than with 70% avoidance.


I'm sure it's simply a typo. Earlier in the excerpt, he was comparing 30% avoidance (70% chance to be hit) to 50% avoidance, and that comparison was a continuation of the same thought. So he either meant to type "30% avoidance" instead of 70%, or meant to replace "avoidance" with "chance to be hit" in both instances.


Leuthas wrote:This one doesn't make any sense to me:
30 is exactly 60% of 50, so you are being hit 40% less frequently with 70% avoidance than with 50% avoidance.


You used exactly the same logic. If you go from taking 50 hits out of every 100 attacks (50% avoidance) to taking 30 hits out of every 100 attacks (70% avoidance), you're taking 30/50=60% the number of hits you were before, equivalent to taking 40% fewer hits.
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Re: Avoidance Misconception

Postby Leuthas » Sun Sep 05, 2010 1:51 pm

Seems the lack of an ID of the "30" from the excerpt threw me way off. I'm tricking myself.

So to use some less rounded numbers, and be sure I have this right:

I have 37% avoidance now, and will upgrade to 43% avoidance therefore:

From 63% chance to be hit to 57% chance to be hit, so 57/63=.904 thus a I am going to take 9.6% less hits with 43% avoidance than with 37% avoidance.

It's so easy when I stop reading that excerpt.
Why can't a Warrior Thunderclap while silenced?

You're actually clapping your thighs together with a force so powerful that you generate a sonic boom and the resulting electrostatic energy. Unfortunately, when you're silenced, you can't generate the audible force from your thunder thighs.

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Re: Avoidance Misconception

Postby Koatanga » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:59 pm

Leuthas wrote:Seems the lack of an ID of the "30" from the excerpt threw me way off. I'm tricking myself.

So to use some less rounded numbers, and be sure I have this right:

I have 37% avoidance now, and will upgrade to 43% avoidance therefore:

From 63% chance to be hit to 57% chance to be hit, so 57/63=.904 thus a I am going to take 9.6% less hits with 43% avoidance than with 37% avoidance.

It's so easy when I stop reading that excerpt.

Almost right.

When talking about a number of things, as opposed to a quantity, you generally would say "fewer", not "less". Other than that, you're spot in.

;)

(use of smiley denotes post intended to be humorous, not grammar-nazi-serious).
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Re: Avoidance Misconception

Postby Leuthas » Sun Sep 05, 2010 5:06 pm

From 63% chance to be hit to 57% chance to be hit, so 57/63=.904 thus a I am going to take 9.6% lesslier hits with 43% avoidance than with 37% avoidance.

Fixed.
Why can't a Warrior Thunderclap while silenced?

You're actually clapping your thighs together with a force so powerful that you generate a sonic boom and the resulting electrostatic energy. Unfortunately, when you're silenced, you can't generate the audible force from your thunder thighs.

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