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Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby theckhd » Wed May 12, 2010 12:06 pm

kakashi wrote:I might have missed this, but during the initial calculations for Armour vs Stamina was the scaling of AD taken into consideration ? Should it be taken into consideration ?

It's irrelevant for EH calculations. It cancels out in exactly the same fashion that the ICC buff does.

Proof: Pre-buff (or pre-AD), the relation is:
Code: Select all
dA = (K+A)/H * dH          (5)


Now apply a buff that increases your health multiplicatively. This could be via the ICC buff (H' = c_{icc}*H) or the extra EH afforded by AD (H' = c_{AD}*H).

H gets bigger by a factor of c, but so does dH. We substituted dH=f*dS to get from equation (5) to equation (7), but to account for the buff we'd need to use the new relation: dH' = c*f*dS. This makes sense, of course, because every point of Stamina is now giving us more health than it was before.

So if you plug in both H' and dH' (for H and dH respectively), the multiplicative constant added by the buff cancels.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby pfunkmort » Mon May 17, 2010 12:39 am

Mex wrote:It's not just the physical damage, it's also the Icecrown Radiance. A 20% reduction in dodge is very significant when looking at burst scenarios. Compare 55% avoidance with 75%. The former gives you ~1.8% chance of taking 5 hits in a row. The latter gives roughly the same (~1.5%) of taking only 3. This means that they can effectively reduce boss damage by 40% (accompanied by a bit of a boost in attack speed), and still see near-death experiences without having that one-in-a-thousand fourth / sixth hit just be flat out fatal. As these burst windows become more protracted, you can fit more healing in, which further boosts armour's effectiveness.



I really don't mean to hijack this thread (I feel like I'm too much of a presumptuous ass on here anyway), but on this issue: Is there some thread that breaks down this aspect of avoidance into a more generalized, quantified topic? IDK, but this seems like the real meat of avoidance and its real relevance as a piece of a gearing strategy that weighs say, using an avoidance ring or an armor ring, as eventually you'd reach some form of soft cap with avoidance where your decreases in chances to take, say...a third or fourth hit...(not just a percent increase) isn't improved enough to justify the itemization, considering rating and DR and the values of armor you're subbing. Obviously this is in the same vein as so many poo-pooed threads on avoidance vs eh...but, I really do feel that it's the one piece of information I'm sort of lacking to understand basic gearing strategy, and it's been bugging me the past few weeks/months as some of the other tanks on my server seem to be going for full avoidance sets, whereas to me, it's always been more of a gray area of what avoidance levels are optimal. If I'm missing some vital source because I'm too dumb (don't read lazy), that's fine. anyone?
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby lythac » Mon May 17, 2010 2:43 am

pfunkmort wrote:I really don't mean to hijack this thread (I feel like I'm too much of a presumptuous ass on here anyway), but on this issue: Is there some thread that breaks down this aspect of avoidance into a more generalized, quantified topic? IDK, but this seems like the real meat of avoidance and its real relevance as a piece of a gearing strategy that weighs say, using an avoidance ring or an armor ring, as eventually you'd reach some form of soft cap with avoidance where your decreases in chances to take, say...a third or fourth hit...(


There is a thread on Tankspot (Why We Do What We Do (An in depth explanation of EHP and ICC 3.3.3 tanking mechanics)), section 6 is what you are after.

The telling line is -

For the setup of 38.32% avoidance, 100 swings, and a streak of 5, the simulation then gives a result of 98.5% chance of taking a 5 hit swing.


Forget about taking a 3rd or 4th hit, you will most likely take a string of 5 hits in a row with current gear.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Fridmarr » Mon May 17, 2010 12:07 pm

@pfunkmort, it is actually the opposite. Avoidance gets much stronger the more of it you have, however, we can't (as far as I know) reach levels high enough to really see its strength because of Chill of the Throne. Using the excerpt that Lythac posted, if avoidance was up around 65% as it would have been without the debuff, the odds of taking a string of 5 hits inside of a 100 swing block drops way down to like 39% (sim based).

That is why blizzard had to create bosses that would hit really really hard even with their autoattacks in order to really threaten the tank. They were able to mellow that a bit in ICC.

Now, I haven't really done the math with diminishing returns on rating and compared it all at the ilevel score for efficiency. Avoidance really isn't all that directly comparable to armor anyhow. You probably see a lot of folks equipping avoidance gear just because their health is so high now, that they feel like they just won't die to any burst put out by the boss and so they can go with avoidance to make things easier on the healers.


EDIT: This graph shows how steep the curve is on stopping chains of hits with avoidance, and why at high levels it's really powerful, but currrently those levels are not really reachable in ICC.

http://www.tankspot.com/attachment.php? ... 1272931652
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby tlitp » Mon May 17, 2010 12:31 pm

lythac wrote:There is a thread on Tankspot (Why We Do What We Do (An in depth explanation of EHP and ICC 3.3.3 tanking mechanics)), section 6 is what you are after.
The telling line is -
For the setup of 38.32% avoidance, 100 swings, and a streak of 5, the simulation then gives a result of 98.5% chance of taking a 5 hit swing.

Make no mistake, I consider that thread to be of good use to a regular tank. Having said this, I also consider it quite lacking when it comes to serious theorycrafting (I tend to avoid bothering with ad hominem "arguments" and/or iconoclasm, so I've simply ignored it). I'm aware of that "avoidance simulator", and I've also parsed its code - the simulator itself works well. The premises(/inputs), on the other hand, are highly debatable :
  1. the avoidance input is a bit low, the contribution of the raid environment is probably ignored [minor]
  2. the hit size scale (1/5) appears to be "enforced" without proper background/reasoning [major]
  3. all (avoidance-related) dynamic effects are ignored [major]
  4. the hit counter (100) is merely an abstract value, as it ignores completely the "true" behaviour of NPCs (moving, target switching, casting, time off-target) [critical]
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby pfunkmort » Mon May 17, 2010 3:43 pm

thank you for the info, both of you. Mine was more a general aside about avoidance (not specifically icc related - and arguably more relevant with the changes to parry and block as mitigation stats in cataclysm) and I think this will probably help me.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby pfunkmort » Thu May 27, 2010 2:31 am

another question about strength of wrynn (sorry if I missed this somewhere else)...does it double dip with divinity and jol? or is it a flat bump to the end result?
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Flitter » Fri Oct 08, 2010 2:47 am

Ok, I just spent 30 minutes searching the web about the Strength of Wrynn / Hellscream's Warsong buffs come patch 4.0.1.

So far I read that these two buffs will be gone, but apparently Chill of the Throne will be disabled, too.

Can someone confirm or deny this information?
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby RedAces » Fri Oct 08, 2010 3:11 am

hey,

yes on the PTR both buffs are disabled, but only the first wing of ICC is unlocked. So it may possible that the +30% buff just isn't enabled because the PTR isn't online long enough (Wings and the buffs were released after a certain time).
I lost 15% Avoidance from live to PTR, so it maybe possible that they deactivated the -20% dodge as compensation.

Bye, RedAces.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Phonic » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:15 pm

RedAces wrote:I lost 15% Avoidance from live to PTR, so it maybe possible that they deactivated the -20% dodge as compensation.

Bye, RedAces.


Yeah, the loss in avoidance from Defense is offset now by Chill of the Throne being removed. In terms of the 30% ICC raidiance, not sure if it's gone or not. They talked about it in the past as a possibility, but from what I hear, many if not all dps specs have become weaker with 4.0.1, not stronger. So removing this would totally eliminate the possibility of killing H-LK for any 11/12 guilds still raiding out there.
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