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Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Awyndel » Tue Mar 09, 2010 7:28 pm

Kihra wrote:
Awyndel wrote:I will swap to armor trinkets if I notice withered down death scenario's, don't worry I read the thread, and I understand it.


I've only experienced one actual trickle death in 25-man hard modes, and it was on Festergut. When he has has two stacks, and too many tank healers move because of goo, you can end up with a low healing throughput. That's a great example of a fight where armor is really really good.


Yes it is. So is having more cd's to work with to cover the whole 3 stack phase. I will try out both tbh.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Meloree » Tue Mar 09, 2010 11:07 pm

Awyndel wrote:If stamina gave me more EH before the buff, it will still give me more EH after the buff. And i'm not talking about traditional EH here. I am taking a standard 20% magic damage and 10K heal, wich I can change according to the logs and predictions. And with those numbers my armor number is 12. wich is not that good tbh when comparing trinkets. Especially when one considers the cd's on stamina trinkets, wich are lacking on the armor ones.


You are completely correct. This point is not in debate. Stamina continues to give more EH. Your point is completely irrelevant to the discussion.

Awyndel wrote:
theckhd wrote:It's now easier to reach EH thresholds for fights. The common rule of thumb is to gear to the EH threshold (or a little above it), and then gear for damage reduction in the form of armor or avoidance. Armor has the advantage in ICC because it continues to increase your EH and gives guaranteed mitigation without diminishing returns. So since you're hitting the EH threshold earlier, you can start stacking armor earlier as well.

In addition, Armor gets better with healing, and once you're well above the EH threshold of a fight, you generally do expect that you'll receive some amount of healing in a death scenario. That was the conclusion of the famous Armor vs. Stam thread, for anyone who managed to read the whole thing.


I do not agree with either statements, and here is why:

- I do not think we will meet the EH thresholds anytime soon. Hard modes hit very hard, and we have seen that more health is never bad unless it reaches ridiculous levels.

- I don't see a reason why I would expect more healing in my spikes ( and thus less topping off of my health bar ) , because of the buff. Because healing done is buffed by the same amount as my health.


We meet EH thresholds in hardmodes already. We met EH thresholds before the 5% buff. With the exception of LK Heroic. However, because healing done is buffed armor gains effectiveness. It adds EH (not as much) while reducing healing burden (made doubly effective by healing buff). Given that the EH threshold is already exceeded - which, for you, it is for Marrowgar, Saurfang, Rotface, Festergut, Lanathel and Blood Princes - armor provides a superior gearing option.

Awyndel wrote:And I am still very much anoyed with a lot of ppl in that thread. Basicly because they made it seem like they did us a favour, while theck was the one who updated the model and did all the work, again. They didn't so us any favour, they abused us into doing ourselves a favour, and then we thanked them. Well I pass.


A lot of the people in that thread presented themselves extremely poorly. However, they did do us a favor, because they made us look at and improve the models being used. The thread could have been 3 pages long, rather than 23, if it had started more civilly, but we are better for having had that thread. So, yes, we should thank them for the end result.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Awyndel » Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:41 am

Well you cleared more hard modes then me, and I do respect your opinion. So I will keep a very close eye on the healing received in my death logs then. I will also talk to my healers see if they feel like they are keeping up.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby theckhd » Wed Mar 10, 2010 7:14 am

Awyndel wrote:Well you cleared more hard modes then me, and I do respect your opinion. So I will keep a very close eye on the healing received in my death logs then. I will also talk to my healers see if they feel like they are keeping up.

You really should. After that thread, I took a close look at some of the more damage-intensive fights in ICC. There were enough of examples of both death types (zero-heal and whittle-down) to convince me that neither was that much more common than the other.

If anything, I'd expect that the whittle-down is more common in general. I have a few healers that like to stand in fire, so I see more zero-heal scenarios than most people.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Kihra » Wed Mar 10, 2010 8:26 am

theckhd wrote:
Awyndel wrote:Well you cleared more hard modes then me, and I do respect your opinion. So I will keep a very close eye on the healing received in my death logs then. I will also talk to my healers see if they feel like they are keeping up.

You really should. After that thread, I took a close look at some of the more damage-intensive fights in ICC. There were enough of examples of both death types (zero-heal and whittle-down) to convince me that neither was that much more common than the other.

If anything, I'd expect that the whittle-down is more common in general. I have a few healers that like to stand in fire, so I see more zero-heal scenarios than most people.


Yeah, and keep in mind that what we call "whittle down" is still a rather fast death. For example, the death I'm calling "whittle down" on Festergut looked something like this:

[23:06:41.460] Festergut hits Kihra 31689
[23:06:42.182] Spacealien Earth Shield Kihra +*7317*
[23:06:42.193] Festergut Gaseous Blight Kihra 704 (R: 748)
[23:06:42.583] Festergut hits Kihra 24312 (A: 6659)
[23:06:42.958] Wiingman Judgement of Light Kihra +1334
[23:06:43.320] Caruga Beacon of Light Kihra +14820
[23:06:43.341] Wiingman Judgement of Light Kihra +1334
[23:06:43.341] Wiingman Judgement of Light Kihra +1335
[23:06:43.341] Kihra Blood Reserve Kihra +437
[23:06:43.697] Festergut hits Kihra 19869 (A: 2618, B: 2211)
[23:06:44.177] Wiingman Judgement of Light Kihra +1334
[23:06:44.191] Festergut Gaseous Blight Kihra 578 (A: 144, R: 767)
[23:06:44.546] Festergut Gastric Bloat Kihra 9892 (A: 2473)
[23:06:44.581] Kihra Blood Reserve Kihra +*944*
[23:06:44.581] Caruga Holy Light Kihra +15065
[23:06:44.828] Festergut hits Kihra 17383 (O: 8935, B: 2211)

3.4 seconds is still a fast death all things considered, but that's definitely a whittle-down death.

What other bosses are people experiencing whittle-down death scenarios on? Festergut for me has been the only one, but for us tank death has only been an issue on Saurfang and Festergut so far, and the Saurfang deaths were of the zero heal variety. :)
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Paxen » Wed Mar 10, 2010 8:29 am

Kihra wrote:Yeah, and keep in mind that what we call "whittle down" is still a rather fast death. For example, the death I'm calling "whittle down" on Festergut looked something like this:
<snip>


Is this really a "whittle-down" death? You received exactly 1 direct heal in 3.4 seconds. If this was festergut with 2 or 3 stacks I'd be inclined to say the healers failed more than anything else. And if they were momentarily distracted, more HP so you'd survive until the next heal lands should work just as well as armor.

edit: missed the Beacon heal. Was this a 10 man run?
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Kihra » Wed Mar 10, 2010 9:01 am

Paxen wrote:
Kihra wrote:Yeah, and keep in mind that what we call "whittle down" is still a rather fast death. For example, the death I'm calling "whittle down" on Festergut looked something like this:
<snip>


Is this really a "whittle-down" death? You received exactly 1 direct heal in 3.4 seconds. If this was festergut with 2 or 3 stacks I'd be inclined to say the healers failed more than anything else. And if they were momentarily distracted, more HP so you'd survive until the next heal lands should work just as well as armor.

edit: missed the Beacon heal. Was this a 10 man run?


Nope, 25 heroic. As for it being healer failure, well, absolutely. In fact I'd argue that pretty much any whittle-down death in current content can be attributed to healer failure. The point of stacking armor, therefore, is to hope you do enough to survive 1-2 more hits... enough time for the healers to get over their fail and get back to healing you again. :)
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby theckhd » Wed Mar 10, 2010 9:05 am

Paxen wrote:
Kihra wrote:Yeah, and keep in mind that what we call "whittle down" is still a rather fast death. For example, the death I'm calling "whittle down" on Festergut looked something like this:
<snip>


Is this really a "whittle-down" death? You received exactly 1 direct heal in 3.4 seconds. If this was festergut with 2 or 3 stacks I'd be inclined to say the healers failed more than anything else. And if they were momentarily distracted, more HP so you'd survive until the next heal lands should work just as well as armor.

edit: missed the Beacon heal. Was this a 10 man run?

He received almost 44k healing in those 3.4 seconds, so it easily qualifies as a whittle-down death.

Separate thought: The overkill was ~9k, or nearly 20% of his healing taken. Divinity would have increased that by only 2.2k at max rank.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Kihra » Wed Mar 10, 2010 9:17 am

theckhd wrote:
Paxen wrote:
Kihra wrote:Yeah, and keep in mind that what we call "whittle down" is still a rather fast death. For example, the death I'm calling "whittle down" on Festergut looked something like this:
<snip>


Is this really a "whittle-down" death? You received exactly 1 direct heal in 3.4 seconds. If this was festergut with 2 or 3 stacks I'd be inclined to say the healers failed more than anything else. And if they were momentarily distracted, more HP so you'd survive until the next heal lands should work just as well as armor.

edit: missed the Beacon heal. Was this a 10 man run?

He received almost 44k healing in those 3.4 seconds, so it easily qualifies as a whittle-down death.

Separate thought: The overkill was ~9k, or nearly 20% of his healing taken. Divinity would have increased that by only 2.2k at max rank.


My co-tank and I just ended up using Hand of Sacrifice on one another during our respective 2-stack periods (when the goo got thrown out) to compensate for the fail.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Awyndel » Wed Mar 10, 2010 5:59 pm

Tried marrowgar and festergut heroic 25 tonight. Well for marrowgar i was constantly topped and there was a lot of fire going on, so i stuck with stamina. And for festergut, well, after seeing that in action I don't think there is any discussion possible about that one, armor all the way. My dk co-tank even went to pick up his emblem trinket, and with an armor pot he almost hit the armor cap :) .

As for the rest of the fights, haven't seen them, don't know yet, but I defenitely think it can still go both ways. At least I wouldn't feel cozy with armor and less cd's yet untill they up the buff more.

Somewhat off topic, the way I can see this going for cataclysm, specially with mana supposingly being an issue there, we will prolly invest trinket slots in armor then for sure. But that's all in the future. We haven't seen the items yet.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Mex » Thu Mar 11, 2010 9:05 pm

Generally speaking, if your goal is to reduce overall damage taken (ie burst scenarios are rare / non-existant and you want to minimise healer mana expenditure), then avoidance will do so at a better rate than armour. Of course this gets muddied with different levels of DR, and will be even further confused in Cata by differing item budget costs, and the separation of dodge / parry / block into separate effects.

At the end of the day though, reducing every single hit by 1% will always be better than avoiding 1% of all hits, and one would expect the itemisation costs to reflect this. If 1% block costs 30% of 1% dodge, then it will always be the superior option. Depending on how they tune the costs, and what sort of options we have with mastery (which in a very early blueprint increased block amount), I suspect that block rating will be a very powerful stat in Cata.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Awyndel » Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:34 am

Blizz also said dodging one attack is better then having parry reduce 2 attacks by half, and therefor parry should be cheaper. Let's hope this guy is not on the item team over there.

Well nothing is for sure yet but they might possibly screw up the ilevel costs of stats yet again. I hope we can stack block/parry, after armor ofc.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby jere » Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:43 am

Considering another dodge can overwrite the second parry, that is a true statement from an item point "value" perspective. You may not get the full benefit of parry. Dodging that second attack is still a better scenario, but your parry is only giving you half what you paid for sometimes.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby hoho » Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:51 am

Considering overall avoidance numbers will likely be significantly lower I don't think it's a frequent enough occurance to matter much. I'd be surprised to see end-game tanks run around with >60% avoidance+block.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby jere » Fri Mar 12, 2010 9:15 am

Overall avoidance doesn't have much to do with that. Since all avoidance types are on the same 1 roll table, if you have 5% dodge, then you have 5% chance to overwrite your parry, if you parry. The amount of miss or parry has no effect on the conditional probability.

Whether or not it happens a lot is really moot. The fact that it can happen and will happen, makes parry less valuable from a functional standpoint, which will drive item point values most likely. From a practical standpoint, we might find that parry is better, but I am guessing that is not what drives item values typically, as that changes with different gear levels. Otherwise, they would have to change the conversion for it every tier possibly. My guess is they will make the decision based on function, not practice.
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