Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Kihra » Mon Mar 08, 2010 2:30 pm

Awyndel wrote:What about base health?


The equation has been deliberately simplified and leaves out a number of things:
(1) Base health
(2) The health chest enchant
(3) Toughness talent
(4) The 2% increased armor meta gem

These are all left out because they don't really affect the result much.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Meloree » Mon Mar 08, 2010 4:10 pm

Awyndel wrote:Well with the armor inflation from bonus gear, the magic damage in spikes, the healing done during spike deaths being low, and the frequency or withered down scenario's being low, armor wasn't doing very good in the first place. In all reality all that means is we take stamina trinkets ofc, we take armor anywhere else coz its practically free.


Wait, what? Back the bus up, I've obviously missed something.

I'm not saying "always wear dual armor trinkets" by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm trying to imagine how one can form the opinion that "armor isn't doing very good" in ICC. It's an amazing stat in ICC - it's hugely effective on a large number of hardmodes. I think the only hardmodes I don't wear an armor trinket on are Sindragosa, Deathwhisper, and Lich King (normal... Putricide still needs to die). And for Sindragosa, it was a really tough call, I experimented with both.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Mex » Mon Mar 08, 2010 10:54 pm

Gonna echo the "Wait, what?" comment here.

This change allows you to reach base levels of EH much more easily, after which point you should be stacking armour. There will still be fights where stamina trinkets are preferable, but each iteration of this buff increases the usability of armour trinkets compared to stam.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Awyndel » Tue Mar 09, 2010 12:26 am

Well yeah, calling it a bad stat is maybe too strong. It's a good stat, I like having it, when it's free or cheap. But I stand by the comparison I made and the reasons for it. But tbh we pretty much covered the angles on this in the recent threads I think.

As for the buff, I checked the math again, and also read up on other forums. And I am convinced it doesn't change the relationship between armor and stamina. And since the buff also increases healer throughput, it shouldn't change your gearing strategy either, unless you wanna cut down on healers or healer attention.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Meloree » Tue Mar 09, 2010 2:00 am

Awyndel wrote:As for the buff, I checked the math again, and also read up on other forums. And I am convinced it doesn't change the relationship between armor and stamina. And since the buff also increases healer throughput, it shouldn't change your gearing strategy either, unless you wanna cut down on healers or healer attention.


The buff most certainly does change your gearing. Not just because of the health - making it easier to exceed the burst threshold/eh minimum - but because of the interaction with increased healer throughput. Armor double-dips a bit there. 5% might not sound significant, but for most gearsets right now it's ~3000 hp. It's a stamina trinket worth of health. Blizzard has essentially give you free itemization to play with, it doesn't have to be health. The EH minimums haven't changed. Use it for what you will. But I think you're continuing to undervalue armor, because 9/12 ICC hardmodes are pure physical damage fights.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Kihra » Tue Mar 09, 2010 2:27 am

Meloree wrote:
Awyndel wrote:As for the buff, I checked the math again, and also read up on other forums. And I am convinced it doesn't change the relationship between armor and stamina. And since the buff also increases healer throughput, it shouldn't change your gearing strategy either, unless you wanna cut down on healers or healer attention.


The buff most certainly does change your gearing. Not just because of the health - making it easier to exceed the burst threshold/eh minimum - but because of the interaction with increased healer throughput. Armor double-dips a bit there. 5% might not sound significant, but for most gearsets right now it's ~3000 hp. It's a stamina trinket worth of health. Blizzard has essentially give you free itemization to play with, it doesn't have to be health. The EH minimums haven't changed. Use it for what you will. But I think you're continuing to undervalue armor, because 9/12 ICC hardmodes are pure physical damage fights.


Yup. Armor is king in ICC.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Mex » Tue Mar 09, 2010 3:38 am

It's not just the physical damage, it's also the Icecrown Radiance. A 20% reduction in dodge is very significant when looking at burst scenarios. Compare 55% avoidance with 75%. The former gives you ~1.8% chance of taking 5 hits in a row. The latter gives roughly the same (~1.5%) of taking only 3. This means that they can effectively reduce boss damage by 40% (accompanied by a bit of a boost in attack speed), and still see near-death experiences without having that one-in-a-thousand fourth / sixth hit just be flat out fatal. As these burst windows become more protracted, you can fit more healing in, which further boosts armour's effectiveness.

There's a lot about ICC that I don't like, but the way they've handled boss damage to threaten tanks without presenting unwinnable situations using stupid instant-attack gimmicks (like in ToC, with impale / freezing slash / ferocious butt) is really really good. There are some big bursts (Sarth Breath / Soul Reaper) but they're implemented in interesting ways, where you do more than just ensure your holy pally has a brick on his HL key to survive them.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby theckhd » Tue Mar 09, 2010 8:03 am

Awyndel wrote:As for the buff, I checked the math again, and also read up on other forums. And I am convinced it doesn't change the relationship between armor and stamina. And since the buff also increases healer throughput, it shouldn't change your gearing strategy either, unless you wanna cut down on healers or healer attention.

It doesn't change the relative EH "worth" of armor and stamina. It does change our gearing and healing strategy though.

Even if you got pedantic about it, and let your health H be

H = f*S + C

where C represents the non-stamina contributions (chest enchant, base health, flat +HP buffs, etc), the Warsong buff B changes this to

H = B*(f*S + C)

where B can be anything from 1.00 (no buff) to 1.30 (30%).

Plugging that into the EH equation just gives you a flat multiplier of B to your effective health, and the armor:stam relationship turns into:

dA = (K+A)*dH/H = (K+A)*B*f*dS/(B*(f*S + C)) = (K+A)*(f*dS)/(f*S+C)

So yes, the buff cancels out for raw EH calculations.

However, Meloree et. al. are correct that the buff makes armor better overall. There are two major reasons why, both of which Meloree already posted. But here's a more detailed explanation if you want math:

  1. It's now easier to reach EH thresholds for fights. The common rule of thumb is to gear to the EH threshold (or a little above it), and then gear for damage reduction in the form of armor or avoidance. Armor has the advantage in ICC because it continues to increase your EH and gives guaranteed mitigation without diminishing returns. So since you're hitting the EH threshold earlier, you can start stacking armor earlier as well.
  2. In addition, Armor gets better with healing, and once you're well above the EH threshold of a fight, you generally do expect that you'll receive some amount of healing in a death scenario. That was the conclusion of the famous Armor vs. Stam thread, for anyone who managed to read the whole thing.

    To illustrate why, think of it this way. If you receive h=25k in healing during the period where you dropped from 100% to 0% life, then that was an additional 25k of damage the boss had to do to kill you. In essence, your health was 25k higher than it was if you received no heals. That's a flat component to health, much like the C in the equation above. So let's put it there explicitly:

    dA = (K+A)*(f*dS)/(f*S+C+h)

    Now think about what this does to the armor:stam relation. If when h=0, you find that dS=1 stamina is equivalent to dA=10 armor, then for h>0 dA will decrease. In other words, armor gets better. If f*S+C was 50k before, and you added 25k in healing, then that 10 armor is now closer to 1.5 Stamina in this "pseudo-EH" metric. The more healing you get during a death scenario, the better armor gets.

The "TLDR" summary is that this is another example of oversubscribing to the EH metric. EH is a useful concept, and a new tank that doesn't really understand the mechanics in-depth will do reasonably well just focusing on maximizing EH. But on a more advanced level you have to recognize the limitations of the metric, in particular situations where it's not going to give you a fair representation.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Kihra » Tue Mar 09, 2010 10:21 am

The buff really doesn't change your gearing strategy though. You should have been stacking all the bonus armor pieces before the buff, and you should still be stacking all the bonus armor pieces after the buff. :)
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby theckhd » Tue Mar 09, 2010 10:51 am

Kihra wrote:The buff really doesn't change your gearing strategy though. You should have been stacking all the bonus armor pieces before the buff, and you should still be stacking all the bonus armor pieces after the buff. :)

That's only a few slots though, and those slots weren't really in debate. However, there are other slots that have many more choices (trinkets especially, but also enchants, rings, etc). Double armor trinkets, for example, will just get stronger and stronger as the buff ramps up.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Nadir » Tue Mar 09, 2010 11:11 am

At least for heroic LK, I don't know if you can reach a comfortable EH threshold. In phase 1 melee hits begin at 40k per hit and gradually ramp up in 2% intervals until +50% by the three minute mark.

Never mind the phase 2 fun.

[19:06:21.874] The Lich King Soul Reaper Fattycop 41397 (A: 6390, R: 13996)
[19:06:23.624] The Lich King hits Fattycop 35678 (A: 5549)
[19:06:25.405] The Lich King hits Fattycop 42584 (A: 5100)
[19:06:26.874] The Lich King Soul Reaper Fattycop 57085 (A: 2667)
[19:06:27.171] The Lich King hits Fattycop 21951 (O: 22400, A: 2771)
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Kihra » Tue Mar 09, 2010 11:43 am

theckhd wrote:
Kihra wrote:The buff really doesn't change your gearing strategy though. You should have been stacking all the bonus armor pieces before the buff, and you should still be stacking all the bonus armor pieces after the buff. :)

That's only a few slots though, and those slots weren't really in debate. However, there are other slots that have many more choices (trinkets especially, but also enchants, rings, etc). Double armor trinkets, for example, will just get stronger and stronger as the buff ramps up.


Sure, double armor trinkets get stronger and stronger as the buff ramps up, but all hard mode fights but Heroic LK will be trivialized by the time the buff even reaches +10%. Even +5% has made an enormous difference (the DPS check fights all got easy). Whether you stack double stamina or double armor trinkets isn't going to matter at 10%, since you'll be so far beyond any risk of dying.

I can't really comment on Heroic Mode LK, since I haven't gotten there yet, but I would think you'd respect EH rules mostly for that fight, as the death scenarios are (to the best of my knowledge) high burst with no real heals in between. The 277 Sindragosa's Fang would be the best EH trinket I would think, even though it's Stamina. (Unreliable Organ seems like it would be a good choice also, especially in P1.)
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Gavinas » Tue Mar 09, 2010 12:37 pm

Kihra wrote:Sure, double armor trinkets get stronger and stronger as the buff ramps up, but all hard mode fights but Heroic LK will be trivialized by the time the buff even reaches +10%. Even +5% has made an enormous difference (the DPS check fights all got easy). Whether you stack double stamina or double armor trinkets isn't going to matter at 10%, since you'll be so far beyond any risk of dying.


As someone who will never see Heroic LK, or probably many hard modes this was my immediate instinct when I learned about the buff. As it stacks up I'm just going to start using more and more threat/dps gear for lolbignumbers and to get things down faster. Killed everything but the LK in normal mode now and I was already wearing a pretty threat heavy gear set for everything but festergut before the 5% buff (would have for sindragosa as well but never got to attempt her until last week) and I wore my threat set for him as well last week without any problems. Once it gets up to 30% I cant see any reason not so wear 2 dps trinkets and as much dps gear as possible while staying at 540 for normal mode fights.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Awyndel » Tue Mar 09, 2010 7:13 pm

If stamina gave me more EH before the buff, it will still give me more EH after the buff. And i'm not talking about traditional EH here. I am taking a standard 20% magic damage and 10K heal, wich I can change according to the logs and predictions. And with those numbers my armor number is 12. wich is not that good tbh when comparing trinkets. Especially when one considers the cd's on stamina trinkets, wich are lacking on the armor ones.

theckhd wrote:It's now easier to reach EH thresholds for fights. The common rule of thumb is to gear to the EH threshold (or a little above it), and then gear for damage reduction in the form of armor or avoidance. Armor has the advantage in ICC because it continues to increase your EH and gives guaranteed mitigation without diminishing returns. So since you're hitting the EH threshold earlier, you can start stacking armor earlier as well.

In addition, Armor gets better with healing, and once you're well above the EH threshold of a fight, you generally do expect that you'll receive some amount of healing in a death scenario. That was the conclusion of the famous Armor vs. Stam thread, for anyone who managed to read the whole thing.


I do not agree with either statements, and here is why:

- I do not think we will meet the EH thresholds anytime soon. Hard modes hit very hard, and we have seen that more health is never bad unless it reaches ridiculous levels.

- I don't see a reason why I would expect more healing in my spikes ( and thus less topping off of my health bar ) , because of the buff. Because healing done is buffed by the same amount as my health.

Like I said before, the only reason to get armor trinkets are if your healers get throughput issues, causing a withered down scenario, and thus increasing that healing number to like 20K, or some insanely high number. Or maybe when you want to go with one less healer, or divert more healing to the raid, then fair enough.

I don't see the buff causing this scenario, because it also buffs healer throughput. Hard modes might cause this scenario, and having more EH to work with on the first place might make us more comfortable switching to armor then.

But then you would have to state that hard modes, the buff, and your current EH pool would make armor trinkers interesting, and worth sacrificing cooldowns, and not the buff by itself. The buff changes no values or strategies on itself.

I will swap to armor trinkets if I notice withered down death scenario's, don't worry I read the thread, and I understand it. That however does not mean I won't keep judging it per fight instead of taking somebody's word for it. Will any physical fight wither me down, trust me I will say to myself, that damned meloree and theck where right, putting on armor trinkets.

And I am still very much anoyed with a lot of ppl in that thread. Basicly because they made it seem like they did us a favour, while theck was the one who updated the model and did all the work, again. They didn't so us any favour, they abused us into doing ourselves a favour, and then we thanked them. Well I pass.

I just wish we could have a litte less tendencies and going with the flow going on, and a little more applying the math to the actual fights and items at hand.

Forgive my tone, I'm not good at math or politics, I just speak my mind.
Last edited by Awyndel on Tue Mar 09, 2010 7:25 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: Strength of Wrynn/Hellscream's Warsong

Postby Kihra » Tue Mar 09, 2010 7:18 pm

Awyndel wrote:I will swap to armor trinkets if I notice withered down death scenario's, don't worry I read the thread, and I understand it.


I've only experienced one actual trickle death in 25-man hard modes, and it was on Festergut. When he has has two stacks, and too many tank healers move because of goo, you can end up with a low healing throughput. That's a great example of a fight where armor is really really good.
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