Vindication Uptime

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Vindication Uptime

Postby Kihra » Thu Feb 25, 2010 11:14 am

I had a death on Heroic Saurfang 25 last night that seems completely freakish to me, and I really hope I'm missing something. I could really use some help understanding it.

http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-w ... 376&e=5576

Vindication basically falls off the boss around 23:37:21. It doesn't re-apply until 15(!!!) seconds later. This is despite two paladin tanks both hitting him with all their abilities. It's as if the ability to proc Vindication just completely bugged out and stopped working for both paladin tanks.

I'm wondering if anyone else has seen bugs like this with Vindication, or if my analysis is incorrect and there's something I'm missing in the log.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby jere » Thu Feb 25, 2010 11:25 am

I can't view the log, but my first guess is Demo Shout was up. Can't confirm or deny that though from here. Other than that, nothing comes to mind.

Bear in mind that it still is a random proc, so there could be times where it doesn't get reapplied, though unlikely for that long.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby theckhd » Thu Feb 25, 2010 11:32 am

jere wrote:I can't view the log, but my first guess is Demo Shout was up. Can't confirm or deny that though from here. Other than that, nothing comes to mind.

Bear in mind that it still is a random proc, so there could be times where it doesn't get reapplied, though unlikely for that long.


Neither Demo Shout or Demo Roar were ever applied in that log. My guess is the same as yours - while a 10+ second period of no vindication is unlikely, it's not impossible.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby Kihra » Thu Feb 25, 2010 11:50 am

theckhd wrote:
jere wrote:I can't view the log, but my first guess is Demo Shout was up. Can't confirm or deny that though from here. Other than that, nothing comes to mind.

Bear in mind that it still is a random proc, so there could be times where it doesn't get reapplied, though unlikely for that long.


Neither Demo Shout or Demo Roar were ever applied in that log. My guess is the same as yours - while a 10+ second period of no vindication is unlikely, it's not impossible.


It just seems freakishly unlikely. I have a number of questions as a result of this log:

(1) What is the % chance that a damaging attack will result in an attempt to apply Vindication?

(2) I see that the attempt to apply Vindication can miss. (This happened 3 seconds into the dead period, and it's the only mention of Vindication during the 15 second dry spell.) Does Vindication use spell hit or melee hit?

This death is making me re-evaluate hit rating if having really low hit can mean more dead time for Vindication. Hit is effectively a mitigation stat if not having enough of it can cause you to have more Vindication downtime.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby theckhd » Thu Feb 25, 2010 12:25 pm

Kihra wrote:It just seems freakishly unlikely. I have a number of questions as a result of this log:

(1) What is the % chance that a damaging attack will result in an attempt to apply Vindication?

(2) I see that the attempt to apply Vindication can miss. (This happened 3 seconds into the dead period, and it's the only mention of Vindication during the 15 second dry spell.) Does Vindication use spell hit or melee hit?

This death is making me re-evaluate hit rating if having really low hit can mean more dead time for Vindication. Hit is effectively a mitigation stat if not having enough of it can cause you to have more Vindication downtime.

I think I can answer most of those.

1) Wowhead claims it's 100%. That's clearly wrong, at least for melee attacks. It could be correct for ShoR - I've heard that before, but never confirmed it.

This log of PPM enchant testing has 399 Vindication procs out of 830 melee swings, which puts the proc chance at 48%. It could be a nice round 50% chance on melee attack, which falls within the 95% confidence interval. Note that I was hit-capped and expertise soft-capped for the dummy in this test, using a 3.5-speed weapon, and there were no Vindication misses in the log browser.

This log of PPM enchant testing with SoV active has 668 Vindication procs in 3582 melees and other stuff. Note that this is closer to 18%, and was with a 1.4-speed weapon. This could mean it's PPM based rather than a flat proc chance. I was hit-capped in this test, but not expertise capped, yet saw no Vindication parries or dodges.

2) This log of my DBS-10 kill last night. It shows about 91% uptime, with no Demo Roars or Shouts. I was not hit-capped, and a quick Log Browser query shows that there were a number of Vindication misses. So it's definitely possible for it to miss. Your log also shows several misses, in fact.

Going back to your log a second - it looks like it fell off around 23:37:21 and came back up 23:37:38. Zooming into that time period, we get this subsection of the parse. The log browser only shows one Vindication proc during that period (23:37:24, or 3 seconds into the downtime period) and that proc missed.

So my current best guess is that it's a PPM-based proc-rate (maybe 8-9 PPM based on the numbers given) resulting in a ~20-25% proc rate for a 1.6 speed weapon, and you got unlucky. The log subsection I posted is actually a 19-second period that has a little wiggle room on either side (keep in mind you were dead for the last 3 seconds of it as well), but during that time you made 12 melees, 1 HotR, 1 ShoR, and 2 Judgements. If we assume it's about a 20% proc rate and procs off of melee swings, HotR, and ShoR, then you had a (0.8)^14 = 4.4% chance of not having a Vindication proc during that period. You have a 15.4% chance of having 1 proc in 14 attempts, so multiply that by your miss probability to figure out the likelihood of having one miss and no successes in 14 attempts. Should come out in the 0.1-0.3% chance range.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby Kihra » Thu Feb 25, 2010 12:47 pm

theckhd wrote:So my current best guess is that it's a PPM-based proc-rate (maybe 8-9 PPM based on the numbers given) resulting in a ~20-25% proc rate for a 1.6 speed weapon, and you got unlucky. The log subsection I posted is actually a 19-second period that has a little wiggle room on either side (keep in mind you were dead for the last 3 seconds of it as well), but during that time you made 12 melees, 1 HotR, 1 ShoR, and 2 Judgements. If we assume it's about a 20% proc rate and procs off of melee swings, HotR, and ShoR, then you had a (0.8)^14 = 4.4% chance of not having a Vindication proc during that period. You have a 15.4% chance of having 1 proc in 14 attempts, so multiply that by your miss probability to figure out the likelihood of having one miss and no successes in 14 attempts. Should come out in the 0.1-0.3% chance range.


Keep in mind that my co-tank was also a paladin (with Vindication), and he was attacking during that period as well. That's why I'm amazed by the length of the gap.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby Kihra » Thu Feb 25, 2010 2:38 pm

Looking over my past 10-man kills of Heroic Saurfang, I see that when I wore max physical mitigation gear (with very low Hit Rating as a result), my Vindication uptime was around 85% and I have Vindication misses.

When I go back to older kills of 10-man normal Saurfang, where I wore threat gear and was melee hit capped, my Vindication uptime is 96%.

This is an extremely significant difference.

It seems like there's an important takeaway here. In the same way that Expertise can help mitigate damage against parry hasting bosses, we need to be considering the value of Hit Rating on increasing Vindication uptime.

I remember people saying "Bah, I can tank stuff just fine with 0 Hit Rating," and I remember times in ToC when I actually did have 0 Hit Rating. :) If this really does have a 10+% impact on the uptime of Vindication, though, then I think we need to reconsider that position and value being melee hit capped more highly.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby Kihra » Thu Feb 25, 2010 4:12 pm

Another interesting data point is that Avenger's Shield seems to reliably proc Vindication 100% of the time on all the targets it hits. This might eliminate the need to worry about using hit rating to increase the uptime. If Vindication ever falls off you could just hit Avenger's Shield to get it back up on the target. That seems a bit fussy, though, as it forces you to deviate from 969.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby lythac » Thu Feb 25, 2010 5:14 pm

For the work impaired -

Code: Select all
[23:37:11.764] Deathbringer Saurfang's Vindication  fades
[23:37:11.764] Deathbringer Saurfang afflicted by Vindication from Kihra
[23:37:12.271] Wiingman Vindication Deathbringer Saurfang Miss
[23:37:16.584] Wiingman Vindication Deathbringer Saurfang Miss
[23:37:17.052] Wiingman Vindication Deathbringer Saurfang Miss
[23:37:17.507] Kihra Vindication Deathbringer Saurfang Miss
[23:37:21.780] Deathbringer Saurfang's Vindication fades
[23:37:24.618] Kihra Vindication Deathbringer Saurfang Miss
[23:37:35.835] Kihra dies
[23:37:37.851] Deathbringer Saurfang afflicted by Vindication from Wiingman
[23:37:44.668] Deathbringer Saurfang's Vindication is refreshed by Wiingman


Code: Select all
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-woygh844e0vx6wad/log/?s=5490&e=5576

[{"spellNames": ["Vindication"], "targetNames": ["Deathbringer Saurfang"]}, {"eventTypes": [5], "actorNames": ["Kihra"]}]
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby Argali » Thu Feb 25, 2010 5:20 pm

Kihra wrote:Another interesting data point is that Avenger's Shield seems to reliably proc Vindication 100% of the time on all the targets it hits. This might eliminate the need to worry about using hit rating to increase the uptime. If Vindication ever falls off you could just hit Avenger's Shield to get it back up on the target. That seems a bit fussy, though, as it forces you to deviate from 969.


Unless it misses!
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby Halnoth » Sat Feb 27, 2010 8:20 pm

Kihra wrote:Another interesting data point is that Avenger's Shield seems to reliably proc Vindication 100% of the time on all the targets it hits. This might eliminate the need to worry about using hit rating to increase the uptime. If Vindication ever falls off you could just hit Avenger's Shield to get it back up on the target. That seems a bit fussy, though, as it forces you to deviate from 969.


I weave Avengers into my rotation in place of a HS everytime it is off cd. Same thing in an aoe situation (undead of course) I weave holy wrath in place of judgement. You must remember that the 969 rotation is only there b/c we want max tps while keeping HS up and judgement debuffs up. Therefore, if you want just a bit more threat or in this case to reapply Vindi then Avengers can be a good sub in some situations. Hell you don't even need to keep the 969 going in some aoe situations, for instance ill sub in AS and HW for judgement and ShoR, usually I stagger them in place of judgement so I can keep using ShoR but if I need alot of split aggro fast well aoe abilities k go.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby Kihra » Sun Feb 28, 2010 1:34 pm

Halnoth wrote:
Kihra wrote:Another interesting data point is that Avenger's Shield seems to reliably proc Vindication 100% of the time on all the targets it hits. This might eliminate the need to worry about using hit rating to increase the uptime. If Vindication ever falls off you could just hit Avenger's Shield to get it back up on the target. That seems a bit fussy, though, as it forces you to deviate from 969.


I weave Avengers into my rotation in place of a HS everytime it is off cd. Same thing in an aoe situation (undead of course) I weave holy wrath in place of judgement. You must remember that the 969 rotation is only there b/c we want max tps while keeping HS up and judgement debuffs up. Therefore, if you want just a bit more threat or in this case to reapply Vindi then Avengers can be a good sub in some situations. Hell you don't even need to keep the 969 going in some aoe situations, for instance ill sub in AS and HW for judgement and ShoR, usually I stagger them in place of judgement so I can keep using ShoR but if I need alot of split aggro fast well aoe abilities k go.


Yeah, although situations where you want Vindication up (namely hard-hitting bosses) tend to also be situations where you want to keep HS and Judgements up. This has just been a real eye-opener for me, since I didn't realize how unreliable Vindication actually is on boss fights.

In my guild we've always proceeded under the assumption, for example, that if a warrior and paladin were co-tanking, that the warrior didn't need to Demo Shout, since the paladin is "keeping up Vindication automatically." That assumption has just been blown to pieces for me.

I set up a Power Aura to track an AP debuff being up on bosses, and it's horrifying how bad the uptime of Vindication is when you're in max EH gear and don't have much hit rating. I tried the trick of using Avenger's Shield to keep it up, and that worked some of the time, but as mentioned above, AS would sometimes miss, or the AP debuff would fall off before AS was available to use again.

The lesson here is that Vindication is fundamentally unreliable as an AP debuff at low Hit Rating. If you have a warrior or druid co-tank, make sure they are using their shout instead. If your co-tank isn't a warrior or druid, Hit Rating is way more important than you think it is on hard-hitting bosses.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby Racolus » Sun Feb 28, 2010 8:51 pm

Geee, that pretty much said the hit rating is our new double dip threat stat, replacing the old expertise.

I'm happy with it as I favor hit over exp.

Vindy is a must have for us, and we should work our a$$ out to keep it up. In my experience with guild 25 and pug/friend 10, which all have warriors, they all don't give a damn in keeping demo up.

That said, if you want it and you can do it yourself, get it yourself, don't rely on others.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby lythac » Mon Mar 01, 2010 3:54 am

Kihra wrote:The lesson here is that Vindication is fundamentally unreliable as an AP debuff at low Hit Rating. If you have a warrior or druid co-tank, make sure they are using their shout instead. If your co-tank isn't a warrior or druid, Hit Rating is way more important than you think it is on hard-hitting bosses.


I had wondered about Ret paladins picking it up instead of Aura Mastery/DS. Comes with the old argument that they may be dead/on a different target.
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Re: Vindication Uptime

Postby Awyndel » Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:54 am

Hmmz, in WOL i have about 85% uptime. I put another ret on it and it became 99%. I tank with a dk in 25 man, so a ret is prolly the best option for it, we have plenty of paladins with DG/AM anyway. Yeah sure he can be dead or on another target, but it's the best option I think.
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