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Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Fridmarr » Thu Jan 21, 2010 9:17 pm

That's a pretty big difference actually, it's almost twice as many burst events occurring. I find the removal of them makes things quite boring for healers. Generally speaking healers have had to deal with parry haste as business as usual (even when crushing blows existed), unless the boss hits hard and then it's turned off.

Prior to Icecrown Radiance, it wasn't uncommon to get avoidance levels such that the odds of a 3 hit combo was below 5%.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Cliffton » Thu Jan 21, 2010 9:48 pm

The point that I had intended to make was that three consecutive normal hits isn't really a "bursty" event compared to parry hasted damage spikes, it is an expected normal incoming dps event. You cannot remove these events through choosing to gear avoidance over expertise.

Calling the difference twice as many events can be somewhat misleading. It's about twice as many triple-consecutive-hit events occurring. There are many other significant events not considered in this count, such as the number of parry hasted burst events, double-consecutive hits, quadruple consecutive hits, etc.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Fridmarr » Thu Jan 21, 2010 9:58 pm

It will vary from encounter to encounter as to the "burstyness". My intent wasn't to suggest that chain hits were the only source of burst, but that it was nearly double the chains that we were specifically talking about.

I agree that parry haste presents a special case of DTPS, that's more severe than the normal worst case, but when that can gib you (as in less than 3 hits from full to death), they generally turn it off. Reducing parries helps, and can eliminate those situations completely, but avoidance in general helps as well. While there is a value to be "added" to expertise, I believe there is a similar value for avoidance. It doesn't seem to me like it's enough for expertise to pass avoidance.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Angelique » Fri Jan 22, 2010 2:37 pm

theckhd wrote:
Lieris wrote:Is 10exp/15stam a good alternative to 10agi/15stam (assuming beyond the soft cap) as our red gem? I'm leaning towards putting the exp hybrid gem into the badge belt tomorrow based on what I've read in the OP.

I think I'd still go with the agility/stam gem, personally. It's slightly less threat, but gives some EH via armor.


I would think with the number of Prot Pallies running Reckoning again, the Defender Dreadstone would lend more to surviability in case Bad Things Happen™. Sure, Shifting gives you the increased armor (along with a little dodge and a little crit), but what if you get unlucky and the pRNG goes against you (you get a Reckbomb and it turns into a Parrybomb due to being only at the soft cap instead of the hard cap)?

Philosophically speaking, is 99.9% really good enough? Think of it when 100k babies are born every day and 99.9% are given to the right parents, what about those 100 babies that aren't?
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby badgermonkey » Tue Feb 02, 2010 7:08 am

Paladins shouldn't be running with Reckoning when they have the option of DS/DG
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Tue Feb 02, 2010 7:23 am

Angelique wrote:Philosophically speaking, is 99.9% really good enough? Think of it when 100k babies are born every day and 99.9% are given to the right parents, what about those 100 babies that aren't?

Philosophically speaking, wiping your raid is slightly less serious than handing a baby off to the wrong set of parents.

There are also conflicting reports on how many bosses in ICC parry-haste. More of them may be "turned off" than usual this time around. Until we know for sure, it's hard to justify gemming expertise. It may be useless on over half the fights, at which point I certainly wouldn't gem for it.

The point of doing this calculation was to dispel the myth that expertise's survivability contribution was negligible, at least on a boss that can parry haste. We should be careful not to take this result and generalize it to "expertise > dodge," since it's clear that it doesn't hold in all cases.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Jheherrin » Thu Feb 04, 2010 3:54 am

Theck, I have searched and browsed most of this thread and can find no indication of whether you have considered DW DK's in your analysis.

I am assuming here that the DK results you have given are for 2H use rather than DW of slow, high threat weapons, which seem to be the best option for DW DK's at the moment rather than the fast tanking weapons.
The nature of KM procs and the nature of parry haste both point towards slow weapons.

Given that DW frost tanking has become much more viable in the last few patches, and the nature of parry haste on DW tanks, how hard/easy would it be for you to add a DW DK column to some of the results.

My thought is that while it is only 46% as effective as dodge for a 2H DK, that number should go up significantly when considering a DW DK.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Njall » Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:10 am

badgermonkey wrote:Paladins shouldn't be running with Reckoning when they have the option of DS/DG


It all depends on how you spend your time. Raiding pallies? Certainly. Someone who spends their time tooling around in Heroics? Not so much.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Thu Feb 04, 2010 7:35 am

Jheherrin wrote:Theck, I have searched and browsed most of this thread and can find no indication of whether you have considered DW DK's in your analysis.

I am assuming here that the DK results you have given are for 2H use rather than DW of slow, high threat weapons, which seem to be the best option for DW DK's at the moment rather than the fast tanking weapons.
The nature of KM procs and the nature of parry haste both point towards slow weapons.

Given that DW frost tanking has become much more viable in the last few patches, and the nature of parry haste on DW tanks, how hard/easy would it be for you to add a DW DK column to some of the results.

My thought is that while it is only 46% as effective as dodge for a 2H DK, that number should go up significantly when considering a DW DK.

I haven't, but I can. As long as the rotation doesn't differ significantly from the 2H case, the only thing I need to run the simulation for DWDK is estimates of the raid-buffed MH and OH swing speeds.

If the rotation does vary significantly, I may need to tweak a few values. See this thread for details
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Levantine » Thu Feb 04, 2010 1:38 pm

The rotation is exactly the same as 2h Frost and the weapon speeds you're looking at are generally 2.6/1.6-7 completely unbuffed. Most Frost tanks will use a slow DPS weapon in their mainhand as opposed to two tank weapons.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Jheherrin » Fri Feb 05, 2010 12:27 am

What Levantine said, except that I tend to use 2.6/2.6 most of the time.
I only drop to 2.6/1.6 if I need the tanking stats on a weapon or some more expertise.

Haste on my own gear is very low, so essentially will just have the 20% from WF Totem or Icy Talons.
So buffed weapon speed in the range of 2.1/2.1 or 2.1/1.3.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Fri Feb 05, 2010 8:45 am

Updated with DWDK data. I didn't plot the results with dual-2.6 weapons, but doing so drops you down to being almost identical to warriors.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:12 am

Since it seems the only bosses in ICC that parry-haste are Deathwhisper and Sindragosa, most of the results are fairly academic at this point. A boss whose melee attacks are large enough to present a parry-haste danger just doesn't exist in ICC.

If this changes, or if future raid instances have more parry-hasting bosses, this thread may be of use. Until then, Expertise just got demoted back to a threat stat.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Hammerjudge » Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:33 pm

I have been spreading the word about these findings, with due credit. I also tabulated the results here:
http://pwnwear.com/2010/02/11/parry-has ... n-citadel/
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Mex » Wed Feb 24, 2010 6:40 am

Upgrading from ToC->ICC gear means shedding a lot of expertise anyway. I've gone from flirting with the hardcap to just talents + glyph and my bracers (which will be replaced asap too). Even if parry haste were enabled on bosses like Festergut or Putricide, I think we'd be pretty hard pressed to find enough expertise on the gear available at this level.
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