Armor vs HP Math Help

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

Moderators: Fridmarr, Worldie, Aergis, theckhd

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby Kihra » Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:18 am

Meloree wrote:And yet the statement still remains completely true.


Exactly. :)

AD is completely irrelevant to a discussion of armor vs. stamina equivalency.
Kihra
 
Posts: 554
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:01 pm

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby Torquemada » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:17 am

I think you guys scared James off with your discussions of the mathematics behind the glories that are Sky Cake.

In any event, looking at MY armory or the progress of my guild, I am by no means the standard by which to be judged. However, I'm wearing a number of the emblem of frost pieces and not a single piece of Tier 10. Is this because of the bonus armor? Yes. Is it also because of the bonus sockets that many of these items have, giving me more stamina as well? Yes. Is it because I'm not particularly enthralled with the T10 4 piece bonus and find the 2 piece bonus good but not worth the trade offs for 258 gear(Only seen 1 Conqueror token drop thusfar and didn't win it)? Triple yes.

I'm reminded very much of the chap a while back who was advocating gearing for avoidance(Or perhaps it was armor) to avoid spell damage, in the face of overwhelming evidence that his ideas were completely counter to what combat logs demonstrate. He advocated gearing based on the feeling, and not using all these spooky numbers.

I can respect the idea that you don't want to defend against Theck's math with more math. This could be because you don't want to do the work, which as a lazy person I can sympathize with. Or it could be that your numbers don't add up, which is also possible. In either case, not defending your assertions or doing so anecdotally doesn't sway anyone here.

If it's your goal to educate and enlighten us, you're failing. If it's your goal to prove your superiority over Theck as the greatest tanking mind of our times, then the best way to prove it is quite possibly to stop helping people and take the #1 slot. However, history has generally proven Theck's numbers to be at the worst a good baseline to get theorycrafting started, and at the best of times he surprises everyone with that he finds, and both times it's usually right on the money.
User avatar
Torquemada
 
Posts: 1678
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 3:00 am
Location: Virginia

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby theckhd » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:21 am

Ok, I've returned to this thread (albeit much calmer now) because I think this is a topic worth getting right, and I think there's a lot of interest in the results. I apologize for the tone I took earlier James.

That said, you're still wrong. And it only takes a little simple math to prove it.

For a paladin at the T9-T10 gear level, it takes roughly 11-12 armor to give the same amount of effective health as 1 Stamina. That's calculated for 100% armor-mitigated physical (AMP) damage, with Satrina's original EH formulas (which are identical to mine in the pure AMP case), and before raid buffs (so we can compare it directly to the stamina item to item). So it's a "best-case scenario" for Armor. Just to make sure we're not being unfair, we'll use 11 as the baseline since that's also more favorable to armor.

Now, there's no question that the Cataclysmic chest and the other badge armor pieces are very strong. Nobody's argued otherwise, and in fact I've said in other threads that they're hands-down better for progression than the tier set (pre-buff, I'm curious to see the new stats myself).

However, that does not make armor better in all cases. For one thing, look at what you said about trinkets:
JamesVZ wrote:I don't know how much more clear I can make this....
....
The closest thing we have to swapping out raw +sta with raw +armor is the trinket situation, of which the 1792 armor is the much better option in pretty much every scenario I can think of.


That's demonstrably wrong using the above figures. Glyph of Indomitability's 1792 armor clocks in at 163 Stamina worth of effective health. That's less than even the Brewfest trinkets. In fact, the Glyph is effectively a Heart of Iron with a slightly stronger on-use ability.

Except that all three of those stamina trinkets also count as effective health against magic or bleed damage, and the Glyph doesn't. So there's absolutely no reason whatsoever for a paladin to use Glyph over Heart of Iron if there's any chance that magic damage will contribute to their death in a given encounter.

In Icecrown, the only armor trinket we have is Unidentifiable Organ, which gives 172 Stamina worth of EH plus an unreliable proc (confirmed through both simulations and in-game testing). The heroic version bumps the armor contribution up to 193 Stamina, still on par with the 245-ilvl Satrinas (which has a much better secondary ability). So even when the armor trinket is 32 ilvls higher, it's still failing to keep up with a stamina trinket from the previous tier.

Obviously Corroded Skeleton Key has more stamina than any of these, and will thus give more effective health than the armor trinkets we have available. This is why most paladins are looking to couple the Key with Sindragosa's for their BiS EH progression gear set.

And just to emphasize this point again, all of that is true for a boss that does 100% Armor-mitigated physical damage. Armor gets even worse returns if your tank-death scenario includes magical or bleed damage.


As an example of this, let's look at Northrend Beasts, because it has both sides of the argument.
  1. Gormok has the following abilities and damage ranges (taken from one of your recent WoL parses - note that this is normal mode):
    Melee: 10-20k physical, depending on buff size
    Impale: 10-20k physical, depending on buff size
    Impale DoT: 2k bleed per stack per tick, not mitigated by armor
    Staggering Stomp: ~10k physical

    It's entirely possible to die to pure physical damage on Gormok, but there's at least one tank-death scenario that involves bleed damage. With 3-4 stacks of the debuff, we could have:
    Melee+Impale+DoT+Melee = 15k+15k+(6k-8k)+15k = 51k-53k damage

    Most of us could survive that now, but most tanks did not have 50k hit points the first few weeks ToC was open. And note that this is normal mode damage, heroic mode doubles the damage from the Impale DoT and increases melee and Impale damage by around 50% (estimating from this parse, again chosen randomly from the "wipe" section).

    So that's around 13%-20% bleed damage in your tank-death burst scenario, meaning that it now takes 12.6-13.8 armor to give you as much EH as a single point of stamina. Though admittedly, that's only one death scenario out of many, and most of the others are pure AMP damage.
  2. Dreadscale and Acidmaw are what really sells us on Stamina though. Dreadscale's Molten Spew does around 50k fire damage over 2 seconds, and he melees for around 20k. Realistically, you'll resist around 30% of that fire damage, for 35k fire and 20k physical in a single burst event.

    Interestingly, you took considerably less than this, which I suspect means you had a cooldown active. However other parses (this one for example, chosen randomly from the "wipe" section of NB) seem to agree with those values (52k fire damage, tank takes 36k).

    That's 64% magic damage. It now takes 30.6 armor to match 1 stamina in EH, which is getting to be a pretty steep ratio. Worse if you include any Burning bile or poison ticks.

    Acidmaw is much of the same, though in his case most of the damage comes from his Acid Spit ability, which is Nature. He's more heavily weighted towards magic damage than Dreadscale (and thus an even worse case for armor), but he's also less dangerous, so we don't have to dwell on him.

    Note that again, these values go up on heroic mode. In fact, in your heroic encounter from that same night, you took a string like this:
    [19:44:58.398] Dreadscale Molten Spew Jamesvz 2710 (A: 930, R: 493)
    [19:44:58.461] Dreadscale Molten Spew Jamesvz 3140 (R: 957)
    [19:44:58.835] Dreadscale Molten Spew Jamesvz 3122 (R: 951)
    [19:44:58.889] Dreadscale Molten Spew Jamesvz 3860 (R: 523)
    [19:44:59.210] Dreadscale Molten Spew Jamesvz 3451 (R: 467)
    [19:44:59.699] Dreadscale Molten Spew Jamesvz 3235 (R: 986)
    [19:44:59.699] Dreadscale Molten Spew Jamesvz 3284 (R: 1000)
    [19:45:00.071] Dreadscale Molten Spew Jamesvz 3422 (R: 463)
    [19:45:00.421] Dreadscale Molten Spew Jamesvz 3314 (R: 1010)
    [19:45:00.421] Dreadscale Molten Spew Jamesvz 3033 (R: 1584)
    [19:45:00.864] Dreadscale Burning Bite Jamesvz 15245 (R: 2064)
    [19:45:02.501] Dreadscale hits Jamesvz 13920 (B: 4481)

    That's 42k Molten Spew, 17k Burning Bite (also fire), and 18k melee, for a total of 77k damage in the span of 4 seconds, only 23% of it affected by armor.
  3. Icehowl is a straight-up AMP fight, so we get the full effect of armor.

You can perform this same sort of analysis for any of the fights that I listed in that earlier post. Sure, Lady Deathwhisper is a stretch, and you wouldn't be gearing for her specifically when planning badge purchases. But that doesn't mean that you'd wear an armor trinket to tank her, since most of the damage you take is magical.

In fact, looking at your latest parse, it seems the largest individual hits you took were from 22k Frostbolts, and that happened 5 times during the encounter.

I'll admit that she's not a tank check on normal. What if her Frostbolts are uninterruptable on 25-man and hit for 40k followed by a 15k melee and stray 10k D&D ticks?

More to the point, most of the Icecrown bosses are primarily physical damage. There's the stray raid damage to consider, but so far armor has been very strong in ICC and will likely continue to be strong. I wouldn't berate anyone for stacking armor for progression, because it does make sense in most cases. Once hard modes are released, we'll know for sure what sort of tank-death scenarios we're up against.

But it doesn't make sense to stack armor when it's giving you less effective health than a stamina option in that slot, which is "basically always" when it comes to trinkets, at least for paladins. I know that warriors don't scale as well with stamina, and may have other talents that help increase armor's value. So it's possible that the results are slightly different for a warrior. But if you're going to maintain that point-of-view, let's at least work out the numbers and figure it out for sure.

And it's clearly incorrect to try and suggest that there has been no tank-killing magical damage in this expansion. We've seen several bosses that can kill you with a mix of physical and magical damage in every tier of content so far. It's not hard to pull up WoL parses to demonstrate these either, as I've done with your own parses.

TLDR:
  • Armor trinkets will generally be inferior to stamina trinkets for paladins, as even the best armor trinkets give less EH than a stamina trinket from the previous tier of content, even for pure armor-mitigated physical damage.
  • Yes, magical damage is involved in tank deaths, though less so in ICC so far than in previous tiers.
"Theck, Bringer of Numbers and Pounding Headaches," courtesy of Grehn|Skipjack.
MATLAB 5.x, Simcraft 6.x, Call to Arms 6.0, Talent Spec & Glyph Guide 5.x, Blog: Sacred Duty
User avatar
theckhd
Moderator
 
Posts: 7849
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 3:06 pm
Location: Harrisburg, PA

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby theckhd » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:39 am

kanst wrote:Here is my question for you, in a hypothetical sense if there was a piece of gear with the exact same threat, and avoidance stats but it had 500 less armor, how much more stamina would it have to have for you to switch. What is the equivalency your considering?

Is 500 Stamina worht 1000 health to you? 2000 health? Infinity health, youd never drop down 500 armor?

<edit> Oops. Theck fails at dividing. I've edited the post to make it correct, see Meloree's response next page if you want to see my mistake.


As for the answer to this: I tend to use a 10:1 ratio for evaluating armor on items, because it's fast and easy to do in my head. 1823 armor? Great, that's basically 182 stamina. Done.

That values armor at between 110% and 120% of it's maximum value, which is a little high, but probably accurately reflects its worth since it's not only EH, it's also damage mitigation.

For fights with lots of magical damage, I'll usually discount that to around 55%, or 20 armor to 1 stamina (which generally means "pick the stamina item").

So my advice will always be to gear to the nature of the fight, and mix and match your gear as appropriate. If it's a serious tank check, and your most likely death scenario is all melee, definitely consider armor at 100% and gear accordingly.

But if you want an all-purpose conversion ratio, 10:1 works pretty well, and lets you make smart decisions on the fly without a calculator.

Note that as per the above post, this still doesn't mean you should ever use an armor trinket if you have an equivalent or better stamina trinket.
Last edited by theckhd on Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Theck, Bringer of Numbers and Pounding Headaches," courtesy of Grehn|Skipjack.
MATLAB 5.x, Simcraft 6.x, Call to Arms 6.0, Talent Spec & Glyph Guide 5.x, Blog: Sacred Duty
User avatar
theckhd
Moderator
 
Posts: 7849
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 3:06 pm
Location: Harrisburg, PA

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby Sabindeus » Tue Jan 26, 2010 9:09 am

woo
Image
Turn In, an NPC interaction automator - http://wow.curse.com/downloads/wow-addo ... rn-in.aspx
User avatar
Sabindeus
Moderator
 
Posts: 10472
Joined: Mon May 14, 2007 9:24 am

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby halabar » Tue Jan 26, 2010 9:17 am

Sabindeus wrote:woo


indeed. In Theckhd we trust.

I'm going to point a certain bear tank to this discussion, to show that pallies are a bit different, and show that I'm not pulling my gearing choices out of my ass.
Amirya wrote:... because everyone needs a Catagonskin rug.

twinkfist wrote:i feel bad for the Mogu...having to deal with alcoholic bears.
User avatar
halabar
 
Posts: 9379
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 8:21 am
Location: <in the guild that shall not be named>

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby Jasari » Tue Jan 26, 2010 9:41 am

Theck, have you gotten a job offer from Blizzard yet?

I'd get a kick out of seeing a bunch of blue posts pop up a year from now filled with obscene amounts of math.
User avatar
Jasari
 
Posts: 2195
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 12:32 am
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby theckhd » Tue Jan 26, 2010 9:50 am

Jasari wrote:Theck, have you gotten a job offer from Blizzard yet?

I'd get a kick out of seeing a bunch of blue posts pop up a year from now filled with obscene amounts of math.

I'm not sure if a Ph.D. in Optics or Physics necessarily qualifies me for a job doing game design / balance. A lot of people know how to do math, after all. :P

Not that it wouldn't be an awesome job to have, mind you.

Also, I may have a hard time convincing my fiancee to move to California, since both of our families are in Pennsylvania.
"Theck, Bringer of Numbers and Pounding Headaches," courtesy of Grehn|Skipjack.
MATLAB 5.x, Simcraft 6.x, Call to Arms 6.0, Talent Spec & Glyph Guide 5.x, Blog: Sacred Duty
User avatar
theckhd
Moderator
 
Posts: 7849
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 3:06 pm
Location: Harrisburg, PA

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby Shoju » Tue Jan 26, 2010 9:54 am

I'm not sure why or what caused this flame war, but I'm glad that it did. I'm not going to lie, Theck's Math has at times boggled my mind, and I look for a TL:DR (which should be TS:CU in this case) on the thread to boil it down for me.

This is the first time that I have read a theck thread from beginning to end and understood all the math it contains.

SO thanks James, for getting Theck to post this stuff. I appreciate the time he took to give facts so that I can understand, where you just said. "I don't need no stinking facts".

I believe that I will go with Theck's assertions as there is math behind it.
User avatar
Shoju
 
Posts: 6355
Joined: Mon May 19, 2008 7:15 am

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby fuzzygeek » Tue Jan 26, 2010 10:09 am

theckhd wrote:Also, I may have a hard time convincing my fiancee to move to California, since both of our families are in Pennsylvania.


Image

Also, if you drive a few miles down the street from the Blizzard offices, you'll have to stop, because you'll be at the beach.
Image
User avatar
fuzzygeek
Maintankadonor
 
Posts: 5130
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:58 pm

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby mazater » Tue Jan 26, 2010 10:30 am

theckhd wrote:I'm not sure if a Ph.D. in Optics or Physics necessarily qualifies me for a job doing game design / balance.

It's not like Greg "Ghostcrawler" Street's PhD in Marine Sciences makes him any more qualified for the job than you, but there he is, being the lead systems designer and all that fancy stuff.

Well, getting flamed by the mostly immature WoW community isn't probably too fancy, but still.
User avatar
mazater
 
Posts: 1130
Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2007 8:40 am
Location: Winland

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby Sabindeus » Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:16 am

fuzzygeek wrote:
theckhd wrote:Also, I may have a hard time convincing my fiancee to move to California, since both of our families are in Pennsylvania.


Image

Also, if you drive a few miles down the street from the Blizzard offices, you'll have to stop, because you'll be at the beach.


I am in San Francisco right now and it is raining like crazy for the past week :(
Image
Turn In, an NPC interaction automator - http://wow.curse.com/downloads/wow-addo ... rn-in.aspx
User avatar
Sabindeus
Moderator
 
Posts: 10472
Joined: Mon May 14, 2007 9:24 am

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby Håvard » Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:29 am

Sabindeus wrote:
I am in San Francisco right now and it is raining like crazy for the past week :(


I hear that. I live in Menlo Park, and at the height of the rain last week I had to bail out my back patio with a 5 gallon painter's bucket. It had flooded and was darn close to seeping into my apartment.
Havard, 80 Blood Elf Paladin, US Moon Guard
Håvard, 60 Human Paladin, US Moon Guard
Håvard
 
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby JamesVZ » Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:04 pm

theckhd wrote:In fact, looking at your latest parse, it seems the largest individual hits you took were from 22k Frostbolts, and that happened 5 times during the encounter.

I'll admit that she's not a tank check on normal. What if her Frostbolts are uninterruptable on 25-man and hit for 40k followed by a 15k melee and stray 10k D&D ticks?


What if I shit rainbows out of my ass and I ride a Unicorn into work the next day? You just came up with the ultimate What If scenario and used that as part of your argument, like how does that make a lick of difference in any real world scenario? It doesn't.

I like that you brought up all the magic and bleed damage on Northrend Beasts, because that's kind of what I want to talk about. My raid group is not exactly what you'd call cutting edge. In fact, we're precisely not cutting edge, and most of the time we suck a lot. We weren't able to tackle Northrend Beasts the first week it was out due to the DPS requirements of the fight. Tank deaths were solved in pretty short order because this is what I came up with:

None of us were dying to the bleed. In fact, the first week heroic modes were open our Paladin tank stacked it to 7, and on the 8th it killed her because it ticked for more than her life. The bleed is essentially non-dangerous. I've since then tanked it at 8, killed me at 9 due to the one hit tick. Tank deaths centered around Impale applications, and yes while the bleed may have contributed to tank deaths during that time it was pretty clearly the Impale application + melee swing combo that put you in serious danger. Cooldowns were used from there on out, and we stopped dying on Gormok. They hotfixed his parry hasting so the Impale application + melee combo is much less likely to happen, and nowadays I'm not even sure I use cooldowns on the guy outside of spare Shield Block or something.

None of us were dying to the spew. A two second channel for 20k total is pretty harmless all things considered. The 30k some odd enraged dreadscale hits lining up with the 15k bites, on the other hand, were pretty fuckin dangerous. Icehowl, as you said, is pretty much all melee, and nothing to laugh at either.

(P.S. I took considerably less because for the past few weeks we've been burning down Acidmaw and killing him right as Dreadscale goes under, thus circumventing the enraged effect).


Do some more math: How much damage are you reducing by stacking armor on a fight like Northrend Beasts from every melee hit and every impale application? Figure it up at your what 37k armor with a pot up, and my 43 some odd k with a pot up. Then calculate how much damage reduction you get out of Stamina.
JamesVZ
 
Posts: 28
Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:38 am

Re: Armor vs HP Math Help

Postby Njall » Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:12 pm

Given a choice between hearsay and anecdotes and some math, I fear I am inclined to go with the math and the logic behind it. Perhaps you can give us some of the math behind your reasoning? Or even something as simple as a few damage logs that might provide some support for your suppositions?
Image
Flight to Peru: £1000
Camping gear: £200
Native guide: £50
Sledgehammer to break down stone door: £12.99
Awakening one of the Great Old Ones: priceless.

There are some things man was not meant to know. For everything else,
there's Mastercard.
User avatar
Njall
Maintankadonor
 
Posts: 4328
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:13 pm
Location: Thank heavens! Heavy Metal!

PreviousNext

Return to Advanced Theorycraft and Calculations

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

Who is online

In total there is 1 user online :: 0 registered, 0 hidden and 1 guest (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
Most users ever online was 380 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:28 pm

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest