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Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis - WotLK/3.x

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Tue Dec 08, 2009 11:14 am

3.3 Weapon Analysis, round 1

We may not have all of the possible weapons yet, hence "round 1." Once we discover more of the Icecrown loot table, I'll add the new weapons and post "round 2."

Quick overview of what we know about weapons and their effect on our threat:
  • Slow weapons are good thanks to SoV 5-stack procs (see past calculations).
  • The only spec-related choice that can change the outcome is Reckoning.
  • Higher-DPS weapons tend to trump lower-DPS weapons
  • Threat stats make only a minor difference (generally less than a 13-ilvl upgrade in weapon dps)

Since 53/18 will be the de-facto tank spec for Icecrown, we'll calculate threat for the 1V+3C and 3R+1V+3C specs. There are notes at the end on how to modify this if you pick up more or less points in Reckoning.

Thanks to Blizzard's inane "lets make identical items with different names" policy for Coliseum, I've generated tables and plots for both Alliance and Horde versions of the weapons.

I've included all of the 2.6-speed melee DPS weapons from Coliseum and ICC. There's no point in adding the 1.6-speed melee DPS weapons, as we'd be better off using a tanking weapon if we're going with a fast weapon. In addition, the difference in TPS between fast tank weapons and fast DPS weapons is very small.

Note that this list is not incorporating racial expertise bonuses - in a close race, the expertise bonus will probably tip the scales in favor of the race's preferred weapons. Be sure to factor that in for yourself if you're using this to gauge an upgrade.

Setup
Rotation: 969
Seals: SoV
Glyphs: V
Talents: 1V+3C and 3R+1V+3C (see the Glossary or the talent analysis if you don't know what these mean)
Gear: T10 Progression Set
Weapons: Too many to list, basically every epic tank weapon in WotLK as well as all 2.6-speed melee DPS weapons from Coliseum, and ICC.

This time around, there are simply too many weapons to fit on one graph that isn't excessively long. I've broken down the plots a bit to make it more manageable. The first three plots will be tanking weapons only, and the fourth plot will show DPS weapons and a few representative tanking weapons.

The data table and first plot will be sorted both by instance and type. The top group on the graph is all slow DPS weapons, the middle group is Coliseum tanking weapons, and the bottom group is Ulduar and Naxx tanking weapons. The table is inverted (DPS weapons at the bottom, tank weapons at the top).
Code: Select all
Alliance List (scroll down for Horde)
                                             TPS       
Weapon                           ilvl   1V+3C  3R+1V+3C
Broken Promise                    213    8558    8690 
Peacekeeper Blade                 219    8350    8433 
Stoneguard                        219    8419    8509 
Legacy of Thunder                 219    8464    8558 
Last Laugh                        226    8478    8569 
Titanguard                        232    8532    8625 
Shiver                            232    8535    8627 
Sorthalis                         239    8566    8658

Lucky Old Sun                     219    8394    8482 
Gleaming Quel'Serrar              232    8429    8541 
Crusader's Glory (232)            232    8482    8569 
Falric's Wrist-Chopper            232    8527    8619 
Rimefang's Claw                   232    8528    8624 
Burnished  Quel'Serrar            245    8534    8650 
Crusader's Glory (245)            245    8603    8692 
Honor of the Fallen               245    8626    8719 
Bonebreaker Scepter (251)         251    8753    8854 
Silverwing Defender               258    8767    8863 
Bonebreaker Scepter (264)         264    8912    9017 
Troggbane, AotFK                  271    8994    9115 

Hate-Forged Cleaver               219    8600    8740 
Ghoulslicer                       219    8613    8752 
Singed Vis'kag the Bloodletter    232    8562    8703 
Nighttime                         232    8727    8871 
The Grinder (232)                 232    8734    8878 
The Lion's Maw (232)              232    8751    8895 
Caress of Insanity                232    8794    8939 
Vulmir, the Northern Tempest      232    8814    8958 
Black Icicle                      232    8824    8969 
Tempered Vis'kag the Bloodletter  245    8671    8817 
Raging Deathbringer               245    8694    8840 
The Grinder (245)                 245    8868    9016 
The Lion's Maw (245)              245    8888    9036 
Stormpike Cleaver (245)           245    8938    9087 
Quel'Delar, CotS                  251    8957    9107 
Cudgel of Furious Justice         251    8949    9100 
Frost Giant's Cleaver             251    8941    9092 
Gutbuster                         251    9045    9198 
Relentless Gladiator's Longblade  258    8946    9100 
Remorseless                       258    9023    9176 
Stormpike Cleaver (258)           258    9085    9238 
Frost Giant's Cleaver (264)       264    9105    9261 
Bloodvenom Blade (264)            264    9158    9313 
Bloodvenom Blade (277)            277    9344    9506 

Horde List
                                             TPS       
Weapon                           ilvl   1V+3C  3R+1V+3C
Broken Promise                    213    8558    8690 
Peacekeeper Blade                 219    8350    8433 
Stoneguard                        219    8419    8509 
Legacy of Thunder                 219    8464    8558 
Last Laugh                        226    8478    8569 
Titanguard                        232    8532    8625 
Shiver                            232    8535    8627 
Sorthalis                         239    8566    8658 

Lucky Old Sun                     219    8394    8482 
Gleaming Quel'Serrar              232    8429    8541 
Ardent Guard (232)                232    8482    8569 
Falric's Wrist-Chopper            232    8527    8619 
Rimefang's Claw                   232    8528    8624 
Burnished  Quel'Serrar            245    8534    8650 
Ardent Guard (245)                245    8603    8692 
Blood and Glory                   245    8626    8719 
Bonebreaker Scepter (251)         251    8753    8854 
Orgrim's Deflector                258    8767    8863 
Bonebreaker Scepter (264)         264    8912    9017 
Troggbane, AotFK                  271    8994    9115 

Hate-Forged Cleaver               219    8600    8740 
Ghoulslicer                       219    8613    8752 
Singed Vis'kag the Bloodletter    232    8562    8703 
Nighttime                         232    8727    8871 
Blackhorn Bludgeon (232)          232    8734    8878 
Frostblade Hatchet (232)          232    8751    8895 
Caress of Insanity                232    8794    8939 
Vulmir, the Northern Tempest      232    8814    8958 
Black Icicle                      232    8824    8969 
Tempered Vis'kag the Bloodletter  245    8671    8817 
Raging Deathbringer               245    8694    8840 
Blackhorn Bludgeon (245)          245    8868    9016 
Frostblade Hatchet (245)          245    8888    9036 
Hellscream Slicer (245)           245    8938    9087 
Quel'Delar, CotS                  251    8957    9107 
Cudgel of Furious Justice         251    8949    9100 
Frost Giant's Cleaver             251    8941    9092 
Gutbuster                         251    9045    9198 
Relentless Gladiator's Longblade  258    8946    9100 
Cudgel of the Damned              258    9023    9176 
Hellscream Slicer (258)           258    9085    9238 
Frost Giant's Cleaver (264)       264    9105    9261 
Bloodvenom Blade (264)            264    9158    9313 
Bloodvenom Blade (277)            277    9344    9506   


Image
Horde Names

Tank-wise, the new axe is "teh sex." However, it's going to be a few months before we see it. More pertinently, the Bonebreaker Scepter is a pretty impressive weapon. Its 1.7 speed nearly catches it up to Silverwing Defender in threat output. The fact that Bonebreaker drops from the first boss of 10-man ICC means that it should be far more available to tanks thank the previous tier's tanking weapons were.

In addition, we have three new weapons from the new 5-man instances. Lucky Old Sun drops from normal mode, while Rimefang's Claw and Falric's Wrist-Chopper drop from heroic mode. The 232 weapons are a very competetive boon for players who haven't had luck with Anub'arak drops.


The next plots are just sorted differently, by TPS and by ilvl respectively.
Image
Horde Names
Image
Horde Names


Here's the plot with the slow DPS weapons, along with the "upper tier" tanking weapons (ToC/ICC). Again, this one is sorted by instance, then ilvl, then TPS.
Image
Horde Names

Nothing particularly amazing here in terms of insight, but the plot reveals a few interesting options for the new tankadin. The new 219 DPS weapons actually perform as well as the 245-ilvl tanking weapons. Black Icicle from one of the new heroic 5-man instances actually out-threats any tanking weapon available pre-heroic ICC.

One final note - check out how Troggbane out-threats everything but the 258+ ilvl slow dps weapons. Yes, it really is that good.

Finally, I've run the numbers for a few spell damage weapons as well. We all know that spell damage weapons are inferior, but now we have a place to point to with numbers to prove it.
Image
Code: Select all
                                             TPS       
Weapon                           ilvl   1V+3C  3R+1V+3C
The Turning Tide                  226    8187    8277 
Seethe                            232    8363    8472 
Quel'Delar, LotM                  251    8426    8533 
Hammer of Purified Flame          251    8337    8430 
Frozen Bonespike (dagger)         264    8446    8542 


The take-home message from this plot is that even the best spell damage weapons in the game are inferior to tanking weapons available two tiers of content ago. Given the availability of the tanking weapons from the heroic 5-man instance, there's no good reason a tankadin should be rolling on spell damage weapons.


TLDR version:
  • Slow weapons are good for threat. A quick check of the numbers from this analysis shows:
    • Going from a 1.6 speed to a 2.6 speed weapon of equal DPS nets you around 200 TPS.
    • Each point in Reckoning will add about 30 TPS for a 1.6 speed weapon, while it will add about 48 TPS for a 2.6 speed weapon.
    • The combination of these two things means that a 2.6 speed weapon will be ahead of a 1.6 speed weapon of equal dps by 200+18*(# points in Reckoning), as a rule of thumb.
  • If your tanking weapon is growing long in the tooth, head to the heroic 5-man to pick up one of the 232-ilvl weapons (tanking or dps), or better yet to normal 10-man ICC to pick up Bonebreaker Scepter.
  • Spellpower Weapons are bad. Don't use them if you have any other option whatsoever.
  • Troggbane is the sex.
"Theck, Bringer of Numbers and Pounding Headaches," courtesy of Grehn|Skipjack.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Njall » Tue Dec 08, 2009 11:35 am

Oh dear. Is Reckoning back on the menu? (sllllooooowly reads and tries to understand charts with help of dictionary). With slow being better for weapons, I would think not? I am, sadly, not a very good theorymuncher.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Grehn|Skipjack » Tue Dec 08, 2009 11:45 am

Definitely grabbing a 2.6 dps weapon for my lolreckSoComm spec. Need to humiliate more dps.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:21 pm

FYI, I just checked and Divine Guardian does indead remain if you right click off Divine Sacrifice.

However, my macro wasn't successfully removing DSac itself with /cancelaura. I'll let you know if I find a workaround.

The best I was able to come up with so far is:
Code: Select all
#show
/cast Divine Sacrifice
/in 1 /script CancelUnitBuff("player","Divine Sacrifice")

Which cancels Divine Sac 1 second after you cast it. I wasn't able to get it working for /in 0.2, I'll mess around with it a little more to see whether I can get it to work for any intermediate value, or whether it's limited to integers.

<edit> it worked with /in 0.5. My guess is that the lower limit will be your server latency, since mine hovers around 300ms.
<edit2> Wow this totally ended up in the wrong thread. Oops.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Awyndel » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:58 am

I just spam the button a few times, wouldn't that be faster then waiting for the macro ( and safer when lag is bigger then your macro ( wich can happen during busy times like yesterday ) )
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby raenac » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:05 am

strange new weapon on wowarmory
Last Word
tank weapon?
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:10 am

Awyndel wrote:I just spam the button a few times, wouldn't that be faster then waiting for the macro ( and safer when lag is bigger then your macro ( wich can happen during busy times like yesterday ) )

You could just use
/cancelaura Divine Sacrifice
/cast Divine Sacrifice

and spam the button. I prefer the option that lets me hit it once and move on to more important things. The likelihood of taking too much damage in that half-second period is pretty small.

Raenac wrote:strange new weapon on wowarmory
Last Word
tank weapon?

Certainly looks like it. 94 stam and a tank-related proc.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby raenac » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:19 am

theckhd wrote:
Awyndel wrote:I just spam the button a few times, wouldn't that be faster then waiting for the macro ( and safer when lag is bigger then your macro ( wich can happen during busy times like yesterday ) )

You could just use
/cancelaura Divine Sacrifice
/cast Divine Sacrifice

and spam the button. I prefer the option that lets me hit it once and move on to more important things. The likelihood of taking too much damage in that half-second period is pretty small.

Raenac wrote:strange new weapon on wowarmory
Last Word
tank weapon?

Certainly looks like it. 94 stam and a tank-related proc.

Yeah what I was thinking with the gem slot, even if its yellow, but no tank stats like def/dodge/parry. Proc for threat and +heal for EH just strange o.o
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Thu Dec 10, 2009 11:08 am

Raenac wrote:Yeah what I was thinking with the gem slot, even if its yellow, but no tank stats like def/dodge/parry. Proc for threat and +heal for EH just strange o.o

Yeah, it's certainly an oddity. It's relatively slow for a tank weapon as well (1.8 vs. 1.6), which would lead me to believe it's a threat weapon rather than a defensive weapon, despite the lack of baseline strength.

All around it's just a weird item. I wonder if the stats aren't finalized yet, since nobody can attempt heroic for another two months or more anyhow.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Amaranthea » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:53 pm

Amaranthea's Shield of Righteousness was dodged by Heroic Training Dummy.
Amaranthea's Shield of Righteousness was parried by Heroic Training Dummy.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Awyndel » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:01 am

Amaranthea wrote:Amaranthea's Shield of Righteousness was dodged by Heroic Training Dummy.
Amaranthea's Shield of Righteousness was parried by Heroic Training Dummy.


Expertise craze! :D
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:06 am

Amaranthea wrote:Amaranthea's Shield of Righteousness was dodged by Heroic Training Dummy.
Amaranthea's Shield of Righteousness was parried by Heroic Training Dummy.

.... Seriously?


Well, that's new... I thought I saw a parried ShoR in my MSBT log last night, but it was on the pull and I convinced myself I just misread it and never went back to check.

Just checked my WoL report from last night, and indeed Saurfang parried me 8 times in 3 attempts.

So, this means that they've moved ShoR to the melee table or flagged it for dodge/parry, either intentionally or unintentionally. Someone ought to post this on the bug report forum asap.

Thoughts RE: Matlab - This will definitely increase the value of expertise, not sure if it will be enough to eclipse hit though.

We should check other abilities as well to see if anything else has changed (Judgement, for example).
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:35 am

Logged on to do some testing right now.

ShoR confirmed to be dodged and parried.
ShoR triggers a SoRighteousness proc
ShoR triggers a SoVengeance proc
ShoR triggers a SoCommand proc

I think this is a decent confirmation that it's been moved to the melee table.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Circu » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:48 am

I guess that is another point towards Blade Ward then?
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:56 am

Screenshots for those interested:
http://sites.google.com/site/theckhd/im ... _parry.jpg
http://sites.google.com/site/theckhd/im ... v_proc.jpg
http://sites.google.com/site/theckhd/im ... c_proc.jpg


Circu wrote:I guess that is another point towards Blade Ward then?

It would also benefit mongoose, but yes, either way it will slightly increase the uptime on things that proc on melee attacks.
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