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[25H] Twins door strat ability question and probabilities

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[25H] Twins door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby Magnusharkov » Sun Nov 22, 2009 3:38 pm

So my guild is working on twins 25 heroic, and we spent a bit of time using the door strat before abandoning it as we were unhappy with the randomness, however thinking about it more I feel it shouldn't be *that* random. So I have some questions and some thoughts.

The first thing I would like to find out is how many abilities the ladies cast before hitting enrage, is it 7 in total? I kind of need to know to work out probabilities of getting an "acceptable" order. I would also appreciate it if anyone could point out any mistakes I am making with my probabilities and logic.

Our current version of the door strat is to pick 2 to 3 soakers for the light buff and have everyone else go dark, with no one currently swapping colour ever. However we can't break through the "nasty" darkbane heal even with heroism. Currently a best case ability order for us is:

BEST CASE
1) Nasty heal - Just let them heal.
....
7) or 8 Nasty heal - should be dead before they reach this point.
However this is fairly unlikely, from what I can tell you are looking at a 1 in 8 chance of getting this order.

However from what I can tell here are also some other acceptable orders which means the chances are better than 1 in 8. If we were to select say 5 melee DPS with defensive cooldowns (Warrs, Rets, DKs, Rogues) and have them swapping colours on predictable colour swaps (using defensive cooldowns if they get in trouble with orbs) then we may be able to break down more shields.

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Last edited by Magnusharkov on Sun Nov 22, 2009 4:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby Magnusharkov » Sun Nov 22, 2009 4:37 pm

Probability working, this may not be easy to follow.

GH = good heal (easy to interrupt)
BH = bad heal (hard to interrupt)
GV = good vortex (easy to heal)
BV = bad vortex (hard to heal)

GH BH GV BV---Bad
GH BH BV GV---Bad
GH GV BH BV---Good Can predictably swap dps colour after 2nd ability
GH GV BV BH---Good Can predictably swap dps colour after 2nd ability. 100% certainty
GH BV BH GV---Bad
GH BV GV BH---Good Can predictably swap dps colour after 3rd ability. 100% certainty

BH GH GV BV---Good Just let the heal go through and hope 2nd set goes well
BH GH BV GV---Good " "
BH GV GH BV---Good " "
BH GV BV GH---Good " "
BH BV GH GV---Good " "
BH BV GV GH---Good " "

GV BH GH BV---Bad
GV BH BV GH---Bad
GV GH BH BV---Good Can predictably swap dps colour after 2nd ability
GV GH BV BH---Good Can predictably swap dps colour after 2nd ability. 100% certainty
GV BV BH GH---Bad
GV BV GH BH---Good Can predictably swap dps colour after 3rd ability. 100% certainty

BV BH GH GV---Bad
BV BH GV GH---Bad
BV GH BH GV---Bad
BV GH GV BH---Good Can predictably swap dps colour after 3rd ability. 100% certainty
BV GV BH GH---Bad
BV GV GH BH---Good Can predictably swap dps colour after 3rd ability. 100% certainty

Number of "acceptable" possibilities for the first 4 abilities = 14/24 or 58% chance

Assuming that we get a kill if the bad heal happens at ability 7 or ability 8 then we have a 29% chance of getting a "killable" permutation.

More inc at some point
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby fuzzygeek » Sun Nov 22, 2009 6:10 pm

Some series are definitely easier than others, but they can all be worked through, even if you get 4th BV and 5th BV (although this is almost certainly a wipe, depending on on-the-ball your raid is).

What specifically are you dying to?

We usually have the twins dead or very near dead by the 6th or 7th ability.

We have 2 hunters soaking white balls, which helps a great deal when they're empowered and breaking the BH. They require a dedicated healer, as one of them will almost always have the debuff.

We stack people who can immune themselves (warrior, dk, mage, shadow priest, rogue, paladin, hunter*, disc priest) from the BV into groups, and pile druids into the other groups for tranquilities; on a good comp only 2 groups will need healing in BV, on a bad night we'll need a full 3 groups worth of healing -- at that point we switch to 7 healers from 6.

With a ret paladin popping DG, healing seems to be pretty trivial -- I rarely see people's health drop below 50%. Aura mastery also helps a great deal, but apparently our holy forgot to press the button last kill, and it didn't kill us.

It did take a few pulls for healers to figure out how to heal the thing, but since we figured it out we've been one-shotting it when the Ret didn't lock out his DG because he was mindlessly running his rotation.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby Belloc » Sun Nov 22, 2009 9:13 pm

Two paladins with aura mastery + two paladins with divine sacrifice are all you really need for this fight.

Half of your DPS should be dark, half light. Separate groups by color so that group heals work to maximum efficiency. Half of your raid will need heals on each vortex, which is much better than everyone on one vortex.

Have two hunters soak the light orbs, tanks will catch any other orbs (including missed light ones). Hunters can deterrence the dark vortex. Blah blah blah, you get the picture.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby dewkstraykr » Mon Nov 23, 2009 1:29 am

What Belloc said basically sums up the entire problem.

Dont have the whole raid one colour, that lowers total players taking damage/damage spread of the bad vortex, and it greatly improves dps on the "bad" heal as well.

We have 2 groups light (melee) 3 groups dark (2 ranged, all healers) and can account for all inc raid damage on both easily.

Holy pally #1 fire aura mastery + dsac light vortex
Holy pally #2 shadow aura mastery + dsac dark vortex

Depending on raid dps and luck of the draw for second lot of 4 events, you may never get a 3rd vortex at all, but if you do:

Prot or ret pally dsac 3rd vortex, Holy pally #1 aura mastery with appropriate aura.
Trick with Prot pally doing it is to get the off tank to know that if either starts casting vortex, to taunt your boss asap so you may bubble and dsac. Just remember to click off bubble at the end of the channel and re taunt your boss back.

As for soakers, we are always light on hunters so we instead use 1-2 warlocks, and the 1 regular hunter we have in raid to soak. Our hunter does average damage while soaking and regularly dies near the end of the fight which is something that needs work. Our 1-2 warlocks however do comparable damage to the other casters (bar mages :P) standing with the raid in the doorway, coming in the top 5 consistently which is always a plus.

We havent had any issues doing it this way since we got our first kill.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby Iliria » Mon Nov 23, 2009 2:15 am

What we found to be the easiest was as before mentioned, having 2 paladins with aura mastery/divine sac for major soaking, as well as splitting dps. Though what we do is have everyone go dark except for 1 tank, and all the ret paladins, deathknights, and mages (enh shamans can work as well).

When a dark vortex comes around, all those classes can blow survival cooldowns the first time it comes, and really only DKs and shamans will need some slight healing. If you get a second vortex, you have a paladin DS/Aura mastery the raid You shouldn't have any issues with shields as well, we don't even bother to blow bloodlust to bring down shields.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby Devistasion » Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:26 am

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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby semp » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:15 am

The door start we use includes 2 feral druids as the orb soakers. 1 group of melee DPS attunes white and along with 1 tank and 2 druid soakers. The rest of the raid is attuned dark. This makes breaking the shields a mute point. The dark vortex is the "easier" of the two to deal with. The feral cats and melee DPS pop personal CDs to stay alive. The light vortex is done with the feral druids using tranqulity, holy paladin aura mastery and divine sac. The boss is daed usually before the 5th ability if not a second dark vortex can be difficult but not game ending as long as half the dark attuned group lives.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby fafhrd » Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:13 am

Having nothing better to do, I graphed out the tree for the first set of specials:

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Since the 2nd set is independent, the same tree would be a subtree of each of the leaf nodes on the right. You can sum across branches you identify as good or bad to work out likelihood of combinations you can deal with. Would be nice if I could find software that let me tag particular paths as good and have it sum/reorder them for me.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby fafhrd » Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:25 am

That being said, I think you're letting too many heals get classed as bad heals. We had a bit of trouble initially getting our bad heals interrupted even with people pre-switching to the bad-healing twin before every unknown special and saving cooldowns. Eventually we fixed that by having our rogues and hunters all go the "bad" color (i.e. white for us) while the rest of the raid remained the good color (black for us). Everything else stayed the same, with the raid never changing colors. This means that interrupting the good heal (labelled good shield in my diagram above) is really easy since all DPS other than rogues and hunters are the opposite color. Interrupting the other heal is also fairly simple since all the rogues and hunters are doing double damage to it, helping the remainder of the raid (who are doing half damage) break it on time. The bad vortex is the one that's the opposite color from the majority of the raid (i.e. white vortex for us) - healers/pallies blow cooldowns to help the raid survive, but hunters and rogues take 0 damage from this vortex because it's their color. The good vortex is the one that's the same color as the majority of raid, so there's no healing required on the raid, and hunters and rogues all go immune to damage during it, so they don't need any healing either, even though it's technically the color that's fatal to them.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby Awyndel » Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:08 am

We do the door tactics with 2 orb catchers, and 7 ppl with imunities. Normally we would be screwed if the 5th or 6th special was a second black shield, but with some gear upgrades we can beat multiple of those if we spread the cd's, bl and speed pots a bit. And your imunity ppl can take extra vortexes if you have more ds/aura mastery in the raid.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby Huon » Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:17 am

I don't understand why you guys say "bad" shield and good shield. Making up a strat that relies on chance is a bit .... random? :P

Like some said, split your dps. We tuck all ranged dps + few healers in the doorway, as white. Melee are all dark + few healers. Use Shadow priests / hunters with stam gear/SR gear to catch balls (we use 3 catchers). If you position right, Casters never have to move, minus dark vortex, and melee only have to move from ONE ball spawning near them on the right.

All dps just switch to the shield, dont change color, and gg. Of course, we use all the goodies like Sacc and Aura mastery and such.

Best of luck!

EDIT: oh yea, first shield we use personal CDs, second we use Heroism, if we happen to get a 3rd, personal CDs are back up.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby fuzzygeek » Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:43 am

I personally don't like splitting the raid's color because my raid's makeup doesn't support it. We don't have 2 consistent holy paladins -- we have one of each flavour, so requiring a raidwall AND aura mastery for every vortex is untenable for us.

Also, having the entire raid be one color means we only need one tank, which removes a healing target, adds a DPS, and allows us to feed the raid orbs of a single color. We have 2 hunters attuned white, with the rest of the raid black, so no one's DPS is gimped from having to wear Mother gear and the like (although that's certainly viable).

Tank healing requirements on this fight don't seem terribly stringent -- even tanking both angels; I typically swap in some threat bits, and I've tanked it at least once in my happyfunheroic set (which I wear during FC). I like reducing the number of tanks we bring to fights whenever possible because it allows us to add a dps and removes a point of healing that splits healer attention.

I certainly agree that if your raid supports DG/AM for every vortex it's a better way to go. Not everyone has that luxury. :]

And it's classified as "bad" shield because it's non-trivial in a single-colored raid.

There are several approaches to the door strat, even including where to position the raid (we pile people in the corner niche just to the left of the actual doorway). It'll depend a lot on your raid comp and healers.
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby maurok » Mon Nov 23, 2009 12:07 pm

how hard it is to solo tank both valks if all the raid is with the same color?
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Re: Twins (25 hc) door strat ability question and probabilities

Postby fuzzygeek » Mon Nov 23, 2009 12:14 pm

maurok wrote:how hard it is to solo tank both valks if all the raid is with the same color?


Trivial. I've done it in my heroic dungeon set.

You'll still want some hunters on the off color to play Ikaruga. They're also very helpful in breaking the off-color shield as well.
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