Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby majiben » Fri Aug 28, 2009 7:53 pm

Care to do the same for mongoose? I'm particularly interested in it's average avoidance % after DR.

'fraid I don't have the time to muck around with spreadsheets atm (nor the game itself).
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Effective Avoidance from Mongoose Enchant

Postby cordelia » Sat Aug 29, 2009 4:43 pm

To calculate Expected Mongoose uptime, you need to find the amount of overlap between mongoose procs.
Using the expected PPM, you can model the number of mongoose procs over a 10 second period as a binomial distribution:

p = 1.6/60 = 2.17%

2.44 PPM:

Over a 10 second period,
n=18.2

k=1: 0.269 50% clip
k=2: 0.0507 33% clip
k=3: 0.006 25% clip

Average Clip Length: .269*.5+.0507*.33+.006*.25 = 0.153

Expected Length of Mongoose per proc: 10*(1-0.153) = 8.47 seconds

Mongoose uptime @ 2.44 PPM: 20.7 seconds or 34.4%

2.7 PPM:

n=19.44

k=1: 0.2778 50% clip
k=2: 0.0555 33% clip
k=3: 0.007 25% clip

Mongoose uptime @ 2.7 PPM: 22.7 seconds or 37.8%

--------------------------------

Avoidance provided by a Mongoose proc:
120 AGI is 2.01% dodge pre-DR. Post-DR, it depends on your current dodge.

Assuming 50% tank unbuffed avoidance:
22.67% dodge
120 AGI = 1.60% dodge post-DR
Assuming 55% tank unbuffed avoidance:
25.9% dodge
120 AGI = 1.47% dodge post-DR
Assuming 60% tank unbuffed avoidance:
29.2% dodge
120 AGI = 1.35% dodge post-DR

Multiply above numbers by uptime, and you get the avoidance value of Mongoose.

Effective Avoidance Values of Mongoose
@ 3% miss, 9% dodge/parry

& 50% unbuffed avoidance: 0.55% dodge
& 55% unbuffed avoidance: 0.51% dodge
& 60% unbuffed avoidance: 0.46% dodge

@ hit/expertise cap

& 50% unbuffed avoidance: 0.60% dodge
& 55% unbuffed avoidance: 0.56% dodge
& 60% unbuffed avoidance: 0.51% dodge
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby Sabindeus » Tue Sep 01, 2009 2:01 pm

Fridmarr wrote:
Majiben wrote:Since when does HotR start an auto attack? In fact that has been a complaint about it.

I can't say for sure, because I've always had mine macro'd, but it does.


Since 3.1.
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby majiben » Tue Sep 01, 2009 10:42 pm

Sabindeus wrote:
Fridmarr wrote:
Majiben wrote:Since when does HotR start an auto attack? In fact that has been a complaint about it.
I can't say for sure, because I've always had mine macro'd, but it does.
Since 3.1.

Just 4 months behind :wink:
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby Snake-Aes » Fri Sep 04, 2009 5:55 am

Excuse-me, but I didn't find anything about it: Does SoV ticks proc bladeward/blood draining and other on-attack procs? The last patch notes left me confused over whether or not "damage over time from sov is now considered a melee attack" means it procs those things.
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby theckhd » Fri Sep 04, 2009 7:11 am

Snake-Aes wrote:Excuse-me, but I didn't find anything about it: Does SoV ticks proc bladeward/blood draining and other on-attack procs? The last patch notes left me confused over whether or not "damage over time from sov is now considered a melee attack" means it procs those things.

No, Holy Vengeance ticks don't trigger it, they're treated like any other DoT in the game (i.e. not a melee attack).

However, the application or re-application of a stack of the debuff is treated as a melee attack, and does trigger these types of effects.
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby Snake-Aes » Fri Sep 04, 2009 7:14 am

theckhd wrote:
Snake-Aes wrote:Excuse-me, but I didn't find anything about it: Does SoV ticks proc bladeward/blood draining and other on-attack procs? The last patch notes left me confused over whether or not "damage over time from sov is now considered a melee attack" means it procs those things.

No, Holy Vengeance ticks don't trigger it, they're treated like any other DoT in the game (i.e. not a melee attack).

However, the application or re-application of a stack of the debuff is treated as a melee attack, and does trigger these types of effects.
What you you mean the application? Wouldn't those be the autoattacks/hotrs? Or are you saying these are separate entities...
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby theckhd » Fri Sep 04, 2009 7:19 am

Snake-Aes wrote:What you you mean the application? Wouldn't those be the autoattacks/hotrs? Or are you saying these are separate entities...

The application of the debuff isn't automatic, the game treats it as a separate melee attack (which can also be dodged, parried, or miss all by itself as a result).

In other words, if your auto-attack succeeds, the game generates another melee attack to see if another stack of the debuff gets applied. If your auto-attack didn't succeed, then the game doesn't bother.

Similarly with HotR - if it hits, then the game generates another melee attack for the debuff application.

This means that we generate nearly twice as many melee attacks as we did before this change, which is why things that proc off of melee attacks got so much better this patch.
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby Snake-Aes » Fri Sep 04, 2009 7:25 am

Well, that's good. Nice to know \o/
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby DanimalEQ » Fri Sep 04, 2009 2:58 pm

theckhd wrote:
Snake-Aes wrote:What you you mean the application? Wouldn't those be the autoattacks/hotrs? Or are you saying these are separate entities...

The application of the debuff isn't automatic, the game treats it as a separate melee attack (which can also be dodged, parried, or miss all by itself as a result).

In other words, if your auto-attack succeeds, the game generates another melee attack to see if another stack of the debuff gets applied. If your auto-attack didn't succeed, then the game doesn't bother.

Similarly with HotR - if it hits, then the game generates another melee attack for the debuff application.

This means that we generate nearly twice as many melee attacks as we did before this change, which is why things that proc off of melee attacks got so much better this patch.


Does this mean the boss now has double the chance to have parry hasted attacks against us as well?
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby Fridmarr » Fri Sep 04, 2009 3:36 pm

Well according to log parses I've seen, Holy Vengeance can be parried, http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-WHdBd ... =313&e=642 (Click the Damage by Spell tab, then mouse over the Holy Vengeance damage value)

I'm assuming that means the refreshing of it, instead of the tick damage, and I don't see why it would not cause parry haste. Then again, worldoflogs could be translating it incorrectly, I haven't examined an actual raw log to verify.
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Re: Effective Avoidance from Mongoose Enchant

Postby Eneroth » Sun Feb 21, 2010 12:57 pm

cordelia wrote:Slightly better napkin math w.r.t to the upper bound for Blade Warding:

Avoidance = PPM/25*(1-(1-.1-P-p)^4.167)*p/(0.1+P+p)

Assumptions: JoV, ShoR, HotR, SoV app, and white hits proc Blade Warding. Only HotR and white hits have SoV app. If ShoR or JoV do not apply blade warding, please post and I'll adjust the formulas appropriately.


Expected PPM:

- Assuming a hasted swing speed of 1.3, you will get 2 proc chances every 1.3 seconds from melee + SoV, and 1 proc chance every 6 seconds from HotR.
- Assuming a 1.6 speed weapon, and a 9% parry/dodge and 3% miss rate:
PPM = 0.88+0.88*0.88 + 0.88*(1.6/6) + 0.88^2*(1.6/6) + .97*(1.6/9) + .97*(1.6/6) = 2.44 PPM
- Assuming a 1.6 speed weapon and hit/expertise cap, you have a 7.5% parry rate:
PPM = 0.925+0.925*0.925+ 0.925*(1.6/6) + 0.925^2*(1.6/6) + 1*(1.6/9) + 1*(1.6/6) = 2.70 PPM

Expected Parry from Gear, and parry gained from BW:

This assumes the player is gearing at close to optimum values to maximize avoidance.

- Assuming 50% unbuffed avoidance gearing: 10.6% will be miss, leaving 39.4% as parry/dodge.
39.4% - 20% = 19.4% that must be distributed @ 1.88:1 ratio, giving 6.74% additional parry.
Total parry: 16.74%. 10% from base and talents, so 6.74% post-DR, ~7.54% pre-DR, or ~340 parry rating.
200 additional Parry rating would result in 3.11% post-DR additional parry.
P = 6.74%, p = 3.11%

- Assuming 55% unbuffed avoidance gearing: 10.6% will be miss, leaving 44.4% as parry/dodge.
44.4% - 20% = 24.4% that must be distributed @ 1.88:1 ratio, giving 8.47% additional parry.
P = 8.47%, p = 2.88%

- Assuming 60% unbuffed avoidance gearing: 10.6% will be miss, leaving 49.4% as parry/dodge.
49.4% - 20% = 29.4% that must be distributed @ 1.88:1 ratio, giving 10.21% additional parry.
P = 10.21%, p = 2.63%


Correct Napkin Math, sans Reckoning

Boss Avoidance: 9% parry/dodge and 3% miss:
50% unbuffed avoidance:
Avoidance = 2.44/25*(1-(1-.1-.0674-.0311)^4.167)*.0311/(0.1+.0674+.0311)
= 0.921%

55% unbuffed avoidance:
Avoidance = 2.44/25*(1-(1-.1-.0847-.0288)^4.167)*.0288/(0.1+.0847+.0288)
= 0.833%

60% unbuffed avoidance:
Avoidance = 2.44/25*(1-(1-.1-.1021-.0263)^4.167)*.0263/(0.1+.1021+.0263)
= 0.743%

Boss Avoidance: 7.5% parry:
50% unbuffed avoidance:
Avoidance = 2.7/25*(1-(1-.1-.0674-.0311)^4.167)*.0311/(0.1+.0674+.0311)
= 1.02%

55% unbuffed avoidance:
Avoidance = 2.7/25*(1-(1-.1-.0847-.0288)^4.167)*.0288/(0.1+.0847+.0288)
= 0.922%

60% unbuffed avoidance:
Avoidance = 2.7/25*(1-(1-.1-.1021-.0263)^4.167)*.0263/(0.1+.1021+.0263)
= 0.821%

NOTE: It is critical to remember these are UPPER BOUND values for Blade Warding. In actuality, procs will overlap, decreasing the value of procs.


cordelia wrote:To calculate Expected Mongoose uptime, you need to find the amount of overlap between mongoose procs.
Using the expected PPM, you can model the number of mongoose procs over a 10 second period as a binomial distribution:

p = 1.6/60 = 2.17%

2.44 PPM:

Over a 10 second period,
n=18.2

k=1: 0.269 50% clip
k=2: 0.0507 33% clip
k=3: 0.006 25% clip

Average Clip Length: .269*.5+.0507*.33+.006*.25 = 0.153

Expected Length of Mongoose per proc: 10*(1-0.153) = 8.47 seconds

Mongoose uptime @ 2.44 PPM: 20.7 seconds or 34.4%

2.7 PPM:

n=19.44

k=1: 0.2778 50% clip
k=2: 0.0555 33% clip
k=3: 0.007 25% clip

Mongoose uptime @ 2.7 PPM: 22.7 seconds or 37.8%

--------------------------------

Avoidance provided by a Mongoose proc:
120 AGI is 2.01% dodge pre-DR. Post-DR, it depends on your current dodge.

Assuming 50% tank unbuffed avoidance:
22.67% dodge
120 AGI = 1.60% dodge post-DR
Assuming 55% tank unbuffed avoidance:
25.9% dodge
120 AGI = 1.47% dodge post-DR
Assuming 60% tank unbuffed avoidance:
29.2% dodge
120 AGI = 1.35% dodge post-DR

Multiply above numbers by uptime, and you get the avoidance value of Mongoose.

Effective Avoidance Values of Mongoose
@ 3% miss, 9% dodge/parry

& 50% unbuffed avoidance: 0.55% dodge
& 55% unbuffed avoidance: 0.51% dodge
& 60% unbuffed avoidance: 0.46% dodge

@ hit/expertise cap

& 50% unbuffed avoidance: 0.60% dodge
& 55% unbuffed avoidance: 0.56% dodge
& 60% unbuffed avoidance: 0.51% dodge


Okay so I have been out of the game for a bit, and trying to get back into the "meat" of the game. And I just want to make sure I am looking at the numbers above correctly, but to me it seems that Mongoose is truely a better Avoidence Tank enchant then Blade Ward. I just want to make sure this still stands true in 3.3.2, before I get ride of Blade Warding for Mongoose. Thanks in advance guys, and great to know that the information is still up to notch the same way it was in BC.
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby Kelaan » Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:08 am

I am similarly curious. Several pages back, it was noted that Blade Warding was great for warrior tanks, as they have many more attacks. However, this seems like it nearly doubles our melee attacks. How does this affect Blade Ward, relative both to mongoose and as a general tanking enchant compared with agi or blood draining? I am assuming Accuracy is still better threat.
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby theckhd » Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:29 am

We're currently working out the math for these enchants in the MATLAB thread. There are tests that need to be run, if you feel like helping out. I'm always short on time, so the more parses and logs people contribute, the faster tlitp and I can sort things out.

However, all of the PPM enchants should have exactly the same trigger mechanics. In other words, Berserking, Mongoose, and Blade Warding all proc off of the same attacks, so you would not expect a significant difference in the number of procs. You'll get just as many Mongoose procs as you will Blade Ward procs over the course of any given fight, in other words.

The difference is the effect. Mongoose gives you 15 seconds of extra agility, which is a deterministic threat and avoidance increase. Figure out the triggers, proc rates, and uptime in real situations and you get very clean statistics for what to expect, and a very clean analytical model to work with.

Blade Warding gives you 10 seconds of extra avoidance, and extra damage if you parry during that 10 seconds. That makes it much harder (though still possible) to model. But it will vary a lot more, and in general do less. Why?
  1. The extra avoidance can be lost early (if you parry)
  2. Conversely, the extra damage might not occur (if you don't parry)
  3. The buff is only 10 seconds long, which nerfs it pretty hard

The last one is the biggie for avoidance. Since it's only 10 seconds long, it will always have an inferior uptime to Mongoose, even if you never parried a single attack. Uptime basically boils down to a question of "how many chances do I have to refresh this buff before it expires." Since you have 10 seconds to refresh BW, but 15 seconds to refresh Mongoose, you'll always have more chances to refresh the 'goose, and thus you'll always have better uptime.

Furthermore, since a parry ends the buff early, the uptime of BW will be lower still than that simple analytical model predicts.

For threat, the issue is similar. If you don't parry, BW gives you no damage or threat. Let's say that you have a 1.5-speed boss, so that the boss will melee you 6 times during a BW proc. If you have 20% parry, that's still a (0.8)^6 = 26% chance that you don't parry any of those 6 swings. So right off the bat, that should reduce the threat output of BW by 26% or so compared to getting that 600-800 damage each proc.

Mongoose, on the other hand, gives us a fairly static amount of threat per proc assuming there isn't much buff overlap. Each point of AGI gives us around 0.5 DPS or 1 TPS, so 120 AGI would give us a 15-second period of 60 DPS and 120 TPS. That's a total of ~900 damage or 1800 threat from each proc. Real numbers might be 10-15% lower due to buff overlap, but you see where this is going. Since the proc rates should be identical, 'goose should always give you more threat than BW.


So pound for pound, the nature of the BW proc (both its duration and early removal) dictates that it will always be inferior to Mongoose, provided they are both 1 PPM enchants.
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Re: Enchant Weapon: Blade Ward - testing results

Postby Arizair » Wed Feb 24, 2010 11:34 am

not that ive done the math to contribute, but with Chill of the Throne, wouldn't Mongoose be stronger? -20% dodge means the armor contribution is more valuable. parry should still occur as before since nobody was block capped to the point that part of parry was off the table too
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