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Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Panzerdin » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:46 pm

I'm sure someone would have noticed if deflects caused parry hasting by now, as hunters would have been merrily getting tanks squished for years.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Awyndel » Wed Sep 02, 2009 2:42 pm

Ok so the slower swing speed makes expertise less valueable, as expected, but what does this mean for the defensive value of using a slow swingspeed weapon.

To put this in perspective we have to make a choice soon, fast swingspeed weapon and possibly expertise cap to not swing ourselves to death, gaining the defensive stats on an actual tanking weapon, OR getting a slow swing speed dps weapon ( or arena weapon without agility ) , making gearing for expertise less needed, but losing the tank weapon stats.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby jere » Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:31 pm

Panzerdin wrote:I'm sure someone would have noticed if deflects caused parry hasting by now, as hunters would have been merrily getting tanks squished for years.


Maybe, maybe not. That isn't something you can easily notice. People had no reason to tie a hunter's deflect to parry haste before, so they wouldn't necessarily have been looking for it.

That's also assuming that HotR's "deflect" is the same as a hunter "deflect". It definitely might be, but it might not necessarily be. I have noticed over the year that as my expertise increases, the amount of deflects I get on HotR tends to mirror the number of parries on my melee attacks. Do hunter ability deflects go down with expertise out of curiousity?
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Fridmarr » Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:46 pm

jere wrote:
Panzerdin wrote:I'm sure someone would have noticed if deflects caused parry hasting by now, as hunters would have been merrily getting tanks squished for years.


Maybe, maybe not. That isn't something you can easily notice. People had no reason to tie a hunter's deflect to parry haste before, so they wouldn't necessarily have been looking for it.

That's also assuming that HotR's "deflect" is the same as a hunter "deflect". It definitely might be, but it might not necessarily be. I have noticed over the year that as my expertise increases, the amount of deflects I get on HotR tends to mirror the number of parries on my melee attacks. Do hunter ability deflects go down with expertise out of curiousity?
Well if I remember right there might be an easy way to test it. The Bonescythe Ravagers in Sholazar Basin do an ability called Bone Saw ( http://www.wowhead.com/?spell=54770 ). Basically they toss a bunch of bones at you really really fast, and if I remember right you will deflect a ton of them. You could also probably verify whether or not the deflect rate matches your parry rate.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby majiben » Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:30 pm

Slightly related, but I have not seen any testing if parried SoV Dot applications cause parry haste. It's been assumed which I feel is a little strange considering how unusual of a spell it is.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Mithos » Wed Sep 02, 2009 9:27 pm

I can honestly say I never expected to see expertise so effective in this way since I never really considered its effects to be of a decent size. Excellent work as usual.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Wed Sep 02, 2009 11:22 pm

Just did some testing on the parry haste issue. I tried soloing Thrym for a while, but got 0 deflects in well over 100 HotRs. So instead, I nabbed one of our DKs who often off-tanks, and had him put on parry gear. The WWS log of him beating on me is here, but this set of filters makes it much more readable:

Code: Select all
  0:11'30.110   Theck attack misses Necromicus.   #4075
  0:11'30.422   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4078
  0:11'31.063   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #4080
  0:11'37.641   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4113
  0:11'37.750   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #4114
  0:11'39.141   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 229 Physical.   #4125
  0:11'40.813   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 264 Physical.   #4134
  0:11'41.172   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #4137
  0:11'41.578   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 608 Physical.   #4142
  0:11'45.016   Theck attack misses Necromicus.   #4165
  0:11'45.141   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #4166
  0:11'45.297   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 585 Physical.   #4167
  0:11'46.797   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 556 Physical. (Critical)   #4176
  0:11'47.969   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #4181
  0:11'48.328   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #4185
  0:11'48.344   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4186
  0:11'51.594   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 219 Physical.   #4204
  0:11'51.594   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4206
  0:11'51.750   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4208
  0:11'53.125   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 253 Physical.   #4217
  0:11'54.813   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #4228
  0:11'55.188   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 611 Physical.   #4233
  0:11'58.157   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #4250
  0:11'58.297   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4257
  0:11'58.375   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #4260
  0:11'58.407   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4261
  0:11'59.875   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 279 Physical.   #4268
  0:12'01.516   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 285 Physical.   #4276
  0:12'01.641   Necromicus attack was parried by Theck.   #4278
  0:12'02.578   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 287 Physical.   #4283
  0:12'04.219   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 252 Physical.   #4288
  0:12'04.938   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4293
  0:12'05.125   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #4296
  0:12'05.141   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1174 Physical. (Critical)   #4298
  0:12'05.828   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 272 Physical.   #4299
  0:12'06.438   Necromicus's Vindication is refreshed.   #4303
  0:12'08.500   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4319
  0:12'11.110   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 471 Physical. (Critical)   #4332
  0:12'11.282   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4338
  0:12'11.938   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 552 Physical.   #4340
  0:12'15.078   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 603 Physical.   #4358
  0:12'16.485   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #4367
  0:12'17.750   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 280 Physical.   #4374
  0:12'17.860   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4376
  0:12'18.422   Necromicus attack was parried by Theck.   #4381
  0:12'21.766   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4392
  0:12'24.750   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 223 Physical.   #4407
  0:12'25.282   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4415
  0:12'25.360   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was dodged by Necromicus.   #4418
  0:12'26.453   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #4424
  0:12'27.250   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 694 Physical.   #4427
  0:12'30.532   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #4447
  0:12'31.797   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4452
  0:12'31.797   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4453
  0:12'32.266   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #4458
  0:12'33.391   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 244 Physical.   #4469
  0:12'33.735   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 550 Physical.   #4470
  0:12'37.297   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4487
  0:12'38.610   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #4501
  0:12'39.016   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4502
  0:12'39.563   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4504
  0:12'40.125   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 269 Physical.   #4510
  0:12'42.328   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #4522
  0:12'43.203   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 608 Physical.   #4526
  0:12'45.235   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4542
  0:12'45.235   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4544
  0:12'45.500   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #4546
  0:12'46.469   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 568 Physical.   #4551
  0:12'49.703   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4595
  0:12'51.938   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4613
  0:12'52.047   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4614
  0:12'52.938   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4629
  0:12'55.532   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #4657
  0:12'56.641   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 596 Physical.   #4666
  0:12'58.547   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4695
  0:12'58.766   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4696
  0:13'00.032   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #4707
  0:13'00.125   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4713
  0:13'03.438   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 646 Physical.   #4753
  0:13'05.360   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 218 Physical.   #4775
  0:13'05.938   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was dodged by Necromicus.   #4779
  0:13'07.000   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #4790
  0:13'07.000   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 283 Physical.   #4791
  0:13'10.750   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4827
  0:13'12.422   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4847
  0:13'12.422   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4848
  0:13'13.969   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4873
  0:13'14.141   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4874
  0:13'17.422   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 592 Physical.   #4913
  0:13'19.328   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 222 Physical.   #4928
  0:13'19.422   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #4929
  0:13'19.985   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 615 Physical.   #4941
  0:13'21.094   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 257 Physical.   #4946
  0:13'22.391   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 275 Physical.   #4968
  0:13'23.297   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1198 Physical. (Critical)   #4979
  0:13'26.719   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4998
  0:13'27.047   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #5010
  0:13'27.047   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #5016
  0:13'27.719   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #5025
  0:13'28.422   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #5035
  0:13'30.141   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #5057
  0:13'30.328   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 582 Physical.   #5058
  0:13'31.797   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 227 Physical.   #5076
  0:13'32.625   Necromicus's Vindication is refreshed.   #5089
  0:13'33.344   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 234 Physical.   #5099
  0:13'33.422   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #5101
  0:13'33.782   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 574 Physical.   #5106
  0:13'34.985   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #5119
  0:13'36.625   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 228 Physical.   #5134
  0:13'37.469   Necromicus attack was parried by Theck.   #5147
  0:13'37.844   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 226 Physical.   #5157
  0:13'39.469   Theck attack misses Necromicus.   #5171
  0:13'40.782   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was dodged by Necromicus.   #5183
  0:13'40.813   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 556 Physical.   #5184
  0:13'41.016   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #5187
  0:13'42.719   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #5213
  0:13'42.719   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #5214
  0:13'46.125   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #5250
  0:13'47.344   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 221 Physical.   #5269
  0:13'47.547   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1704 Holy.   #5274
  0:13'49.000   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 274 Physical.   #5298
  0:13'49.453   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #5303
  0:13'52.907   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 589 Physical.   #5344
  0:13'54.078   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #5358
  0:13'54.657   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was dodged by Necromicus.   #5365
  0:13'54.719   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 662 Physical.   #5368
  0:13'55.719   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 229 Physical.   #5379
  0:13'58.125   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1227 Physical. (Critical)   #5413
  0:14'00.797   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #5442
  0:14'01.375   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was dodged by Necromicus.   #5448
  0:14'01.594   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1335 Physical. (Critical)   #5450
  0:14'04.735   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 583 Physical.   #5481
  0:14'07.516   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 289 Physical.   #5510
  0:14'07.782   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #5514
  0:14'08.157   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #5524
  0:14'08.266   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #5525
  0:14'11.469   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #5555
  0:14'14.094   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 481 Physical. (Critical)   #5582
  0:14'14.235   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #5585
  0:14'14.797   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #5592
  0:14'14.907   Necromicus's Vindication is refreshed.   #5593
  0:14'18.407   Necromicus attack misses Theck.   #5629
  0:14'20.891   Theck attack misses Necromicus.   #5645
  0:14'20.891   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #5652
  0:14'21.578   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 603 Physical.   #5661
  0:14'25.360   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #5691
  0:14'25.360   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 604 Physical.   #5692
  0:14'27.907   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 257 Physical.   #5719
  0:14'27.969   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #5723
  0:14'28.282   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #5724
  0:14'28.719   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #5735
  0:14'32.047   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #5758
  0:14'34.625   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #5781
  0:14'35.500   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was dodged by Necromicus.   #5792
  0:14'35.500   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #5793
  0:14'36.282   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #5799
  0:14'37.516   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 509 Physical.   #5806
  0:14'38.203   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #5812
  0:14'40.750   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1277 Physical. (Critical)   #5824
  0:14'41.407   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 221 Physical.   #5828
  0:14'41.485   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #5829
  0:14'42.985   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 669 Physical.   #5844
  0:14'42.985   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #5847
  0:14'45.125   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 598 Physical.   #5852
  0:14'48.578   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 628 Physical.   #5871
  0:14'50.391   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 559 Physical. (Critical)   #5887
  0:14'50.469   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #5890
  0:14'51.094   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #5892
  0:14'52.000   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 573 Physical. (Critical)   #5899
  0:14'53.078   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #5911
  0:14'54.532   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #5914
  0:14'57.969   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #5947
  0:14'57.969   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 261 Physical.   #5948
  0:14'58.469   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was dodged by Necromicus.   #5950
  0:14'59.625   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 227 Physical.   #5955
  0:15'01.172   Theck attack misses Necromicus.   #5963
  0:15'01.969   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #5966
  0:15'02.766   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #5976
  0:15'03.266   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #5980
  0:15'05.344   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 608 Physical.   #5986
  0:15'07.110   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #5990
  0:15'07.594   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #5997
  0:15'07.735   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #6001
  0:15'11.188   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #6025
  0:15'13.641   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #6045
  0:15'14.250   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was dodged by Necromicus.   #6049
  0:15'14.438   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1333 Physical. (Critical)   #6051
  0:15'15.250   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 220 Physical.   #6056
  0:15'17.782   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 599 Physical.   #6072
  0:15'20.125   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #6090
  0:15'20.219   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #6093
  0:15'20.953   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 660 Physical.   #6095
  0:15'24.688   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 623 Physical.   #6121
  0:15'26.469   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #6132
  0:15'26.594   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 3407 Holy. (Critical)   #6136
  0:15'28.125   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #6149
  0:15'31.875   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 697 Physical.   #6165
  0:15'33.891   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 254 Physical.   #6180
  0:15'33.891   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #6181
  0:15'34.844   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #6186
  0:15'35.078   Necromicus attack misses Theck.   #6189
  0:15'38.516   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #6206
  0:15'41.157   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #6216
  0:15'41.266   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #6219
  0:15'41.688   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 632 Physical.   #6221
  0:15'44.844   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #6243
  0:15'44.969   Necromicus attack was parried by Theck.   #6245
  0:15'48.547   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 615 Physical.   #6270
  0:15'48.891   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #6276
  0:15'49.157   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #6278
  0:15'51.922   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 581 Physical.   #6288
  0:15'55.297   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #6306
  0:15'55.438   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 242 Physical.   #6308
  0:15'56.032   Theck Hammer of the Righteous misses Necromicus.   #6314
  0:15'56.938   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 253 Physical.   #6319
  0:15'58.907   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 628 Physical.   #6334
  0:16'02.094   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 281 Physical.   #6352
  0:16'02.094   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 3406 Holy. (Critical)   #6353
  0:16'02.203   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #6355
  0:16'02.407   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1089 Physical. (Critical)   #6360
  0:16'05.922   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 554 Physical.   #6380
  0:16'09.141   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #6397
  0:16'09.250   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #6400
  0:16'09.250   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #6403
  0:16'09.938   Necromicus's Vindication is refreshed.   #6406
  0:16'12.594   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1214 Physical. (Critical)   #6429
  0:16'15.735   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #6451
  0:16'15.907   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #6452
  0:16'15.907   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1278 Physical. (Critical)   #6454
  0:16'19.250   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #6490
  0:16'20.188   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #6496
  0:16'22.610   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #6507
  0:16'22.875   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 221 Physical.   #6510
  0:16'22.891   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1704 Holy.   #6512
  0:16'26.078   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1416 Physical. (Critical)   #6537
  0:16'29.360   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 694 Physical.   #6570
  0:16'29.594   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 229 Physical.   #6572
  0:16'29.703   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #6577
  0:16'31.407   Necromicus attack misses Theck.   #6598
  0:16'34.766   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 637 Physical.   #6621
  0:16'36.438   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #6630
  0:16'36.438   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 3406 Holy. (Critical)   #6632
  0:16'36.750   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #6633
  0:16'37.235   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1117 Physical. (Critical)   #6638
  0:16'41.078   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #6663
  0:16'43.875   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 246 Physical.   #6678
  0:16'43.985   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #6680
  0:16'44.078   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 508 Physical.   #6683
  0:16'46.875   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #6702
  0:16'47.422   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 649 Physical.   #6705
  0:16'50.782   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 279 Physical.   #6726
  0:16'50.828   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 711 Physical.   #6729
  0:16'51.360   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was dodged by Necromicus.   #6734
  0:16'54.422   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 695 Physical.   #6752
  0:16'57.719   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #6766
  0:16'57.719   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 697 Physical.   #6768
  0:16'57.907   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #6769
  0:17'01.203   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #6795
  0:17'04.594   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #6805
  0:17'04.688   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 651 Physical.   #6809
  0:17'05.188   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was dodged by Necromicus.   #6813
  0:17'08.032   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1135 Physical. (Critical)   #6826
  0:17'11.000   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 251 Physical.   #6840
  0:17'11.328   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #6843
  0:17'11.625   Necromicus attack was parried by Theck.   #6845
  0:17'12.157   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #6848
  0:17'15.141   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #6866
  0:17'17.719   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 245 Physical.   #6892
  0:17'17.735   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #6893
  0:17'18.532   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 527 Physical.   #6901
  0:17'22.078   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #6920
  0:17'22.078   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #6921


His melee swings seem to come in at around 3.4 second intervals in the absence of any parrying. This is the first line I would trust, before that point I'm not as certain because I was toying around with positioning a bit to see if I could back up just enough that he could auto-attack me but I couldn't auto-attack him, but it didn't work.
Code: Select all
  0:11'48.344   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4186
  0:11'51.594   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 219 Physical.   #4204
  0:11'51.594   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #4206
  0:11'51.750   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4208

51.750-48.344=3.406, so we'll assume a 3.4s swing timer. Given that, if he got a full 40% swing timer reduction from a parry, it would reduce the time between attacks to 3.4*0.6=2.04 seconds. Note that we don't expect to see any haste if the parry or deflect occurs within 3.4*0.2=0.68 seconds of the recorded melee attack, since that's our 20% threshold. My attacks that are parried less than 3.4*0.4=1.36 seconds after a prior melee attack should give the full 40% reduction in swing speed, while anything occurring more than 1.36 seconds later will give a variable reduction between 40% and 0%.

I'll note here that it seems like his swing timer was closer to 3.2 near most of the deflection events, so there may be a temporary haste buff in here somewhere that I'm not aware of (it's late, and I need to get to bed, so I'll leave it up to someone more familiar with DK mechanics to figure out what it was).

WWS logged deflects at 11.58, 13.19, 13.33, 14.41, 14.50, 15.20, 15.41, 16.29, 16.43

Code: Select all
  0:11'55.188   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 611 Physical.   #4233
  0:11'58.157   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #4250
  0:11'58.297   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #4257
  0:11'58.375   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #4260
  0:11'58.407   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.

58.407-55.188=3.219, which would only be a 5% reduction in swing timer. The deflection happened with less than 0.68 seconds left on the timer though, so this is probably just lag.

Code: Select all
  0:13'14.141   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4874
  0:13'17.422   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 592 Physical.   #4913
  0:13'19.328   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 222 Physical.   #4928
  0:13'19.422   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #4929
  0:13'19.985   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 615 Physical.

19.985-17.422=2.563, compared to 3.281 for the previous swing (22% reduction)
Code: Select all
  0:13'14.141   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #4874
  0:13'17.422   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 592 Physical.   #4913
  0:13'19.328   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 222 Physical.   #4928
  0:13'19.422   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #4929
  0:13'19.985   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 615 Physical.

19.985-17.422=2.563, compared to 3.281 for the previous swing (2.563/3.281=78% of swing timer, or 22% reduction)

Code: Select all
  0:13'27.047   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.   #5010
  0:13'27.047   Theck Hammer of the Righteous hits Necromicus for 1703 Holy.   #5016
  0:13'27.719   Necromicus is afflicted by Vindication.   #5025
  0:13'28.422   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #5035
  0:13'30.141   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #5057
  0:13'30.328   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 582 Physical.   #5058
  0:13'31.797   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 227 Physical.   #5076
  0:13'32.625   Necromicus's Vindication is refreshed.   #5089
  0:13'33.344   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 234 Physical.   #5099
  0:13'33.422   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #5101
  0:13'33.782   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 574 Physical.

Again, this set shows no parry hasting, because both parries occur with less than 0.68 seconds left on the swing timer (separations of 3.281 for the first and 3.454 for the second gap).

Code: Select all
  0:14'37.516   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 509 Physical.   #5806
  0:14'38.203   Theck Vindication was removed from Necromicus.   #5812
  0:14'40.750   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1277 Physical. (Critical)   #5824
  0:14'41.407   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 221 Physical.   #5828
  0:14'41.485   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #5829
  0:14'42.985   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 669 Physical.   #5844

42.985-40.750=2.235, as compared to 3.234 for the previous swing (31% reduction, 0.7 seconds after the previous swing)

Code: Select all
  0:14'45.125   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 598 Physical.   #5852
  0:14'48.578   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 628 Physical.   #5871
  0:14'50.391   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 559 Physical. (Critical)   #5887
  0:14'50.469   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #5890
  0:14'51.094   Necromicus attack was blocked by Theck.

51.094-48.578=2.516, compared to 3.453 for previous (27.1% reduction, 2 seconds after the previous swing)

Code: Select all
  0:15'14.438   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1333 Physical. (Critical)   #6051
  0:15'15.250   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 220 Physical.   #6056
  0:15'17.782   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 599 Physical.   #6072
  0:15'20.125   Theck attack was dodged by Necromicus.   #6090
  0:15'20.219   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #6093
  0:15'20.953   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 660 Physical.   #6095

20.953-17.782=3.171, compared to 3.344 for previous attack (5% reduction).

Code: Select all
  0:15'35.078   Necromicus attack misses Theck.   #6189
  0:15'38.516   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #6206
  0:15'41.157   Theck attack was parried by Necromicus.   #6216
  0:15'41.266   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #6219
  0:15'41.688   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 632 Physical.   #6221

41.688-38.516=3.172; this one's ambiguous because he parried both a melee and a HotR, was hoping for a double parry haste here , but it looks like both occurred within the 0.68-second no-effect window.

Code: Select all
  0:16'26.078   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1416 Physical. (Critical)   #6537
  0:16'29.360   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 694 Physical.   #6570
  0:16'29.594   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 229 Physical.   #6572
  0:16'29.703   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #6577
  0:16'31.407   Necromicus attack misses Theck.   #6598

31.407-29.360=2.047, while the previous swing was 3.282 (37.6% reduction); This is a very nice data point since the deflect happened less than half a second after the previous melee attack, and we get nearly the full 40% (close enough considering combat logging latency).

Code: Select all
  0:16'37.235   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 1117 Physical. (Critical)   #6638
  0:16'41.078   Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck.   #6663
  0:16'43.875   Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 246 Physical.   #6678
  0:16'43.985   Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus.   #6680
  0:16'44.078   Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 508 Physical.   #6683

44.078-41.078=3 exactly, while the previous swing was 3.843 seconds (22% reduction). Not sure whether to trust this or not, the base speed seems far too slow. I don't think I cast any Judgements on him to apply JotJ. May have been a range issue? (i.e. one of us moved?).


In any event, it looks like we have at least a few examples of a HotR deflect resulting in parry-haste, at least on another player. I'm not entirely sure that the mechanics are the same for a boss, but it seems logical that they'd use the same system.

Guess this means I need to re-re-run the calculations again with that additional attack added back in? But first, some sleep. See you all in the morning.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Mex » Thu Sep 03, 2009 1:37 am

Interesting log, certainly raises doubt as to whether deflection does / does not cause melee swing haste. Over the past couple of days, I've found several references to deflection not causing parry haste, but generally tentatively stated ("unless I'm mistaken ..." "I'm fairly sure ..." "In my experience ...", etc). The above log is the only attempt at definitively answering the question that I've seen so far.

Code: Select all
0:16'41.078 Necromicus attack was dodged by Theck. #6663
  0:16'43.875 Theck melee swing hits Necromicus for 246 Physical. #6678
  0:16'43.985 Theck Hammer of the Righteous was deflected by Necromicus. #6680
  0:16'44.078 Necromicus melee swing hits Theck for 508 Physical.


Entries like this are puzzling. My understanding is that, with a 3.4 speed weapon, a parry / deflect would need to occur within 2.72 seconds of the last hit in order to generate haste (ie, before 16'43.798). The deflect occurs almost 0.2 seconds after this though, and nevertheless appears to generate ~11.7% haste on the next swing (which arrives 3 seconds after the preceeding one). Although a lot of the data points do appear to support the theory that deflections cause parry-haste, there are still anomalies (such as the final example Theck quoted).

I think it's probably enough to assume that deflection and parry are functionally identical in their interactions with melee swing speed hastening, but I also think that a few of the more incongruant points call for further testing.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:53 am

Mex wrote:I think it's probably enough to assume that deflection and parry are functionally identical in their interactions with melee swing speed hastening, but I also think that a few of the more incongruant points call for further testing.

I'm wondering how large a part client/server latency plays in this too. I could see as much as a few hundred milliseconds of uncertainty in any of the values, especially over time scales on the order of minutes. That's why I tried to include the previous two melee swings for each deflect, figuring that a direct comparison there would help minimize the error caused by slow latency drifts. I'm not sure what to expect swing-to-swing though; after all this was done in the Dalaran Sewers, on a server that's got a reputation for being fickle.

Data collection for this is really a pain in the ass though, because you can at most get one data point every 6 seconds, and it's really more like one every 30 seconds once you figure in parry chance. What I (or better yet, someone else) need to do is find a tank willing to gem all-out parry in an old gear set and use parry on-use trinkets, and test against them.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Doxa » Thu Sep 03, 2009 5:52 am

This may answer some of my questions regarding what I've been seeing while using SoR to farm old content (Damn you Baron Rivendare!).

While tanking the aboms in front of his room I usually gather them all up and then spam HS and Consecration. While doing so I see a constant stream of SoR hits. And I mean constant. So fast MSBT can't keep up with it. I assume that these are parry hastes from me. I use a 1.6 speed weapon but I suspect I'm seeing closer to 5-7 SoR hits / second.
Tanking Trash on Doxa with Consecration(Rank3) Since 2007, on Doxah with Thunderclap since 2009 and on Doxeh with Death and Decay since 2010

Meanwhile, pulling DPS from fire with life-grip on Enlight and throwing lightning on Pneuma.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Enkal » Thu Sep 03, 2009 5:54 am

Regarding the latency issue, cant you have both attacker (you) and defender (DK) log the fight and then compare the logs? Dunno if it would make any difference? Also note down the ping of you and the DK. Just a thought. :)

Interesting read on the expertise, thanks for all the work!
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Awyndel » Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:07 am

Does pvp even have parry haste?

Agree with majiben testing if the seal procs can cause haste can possibly have a big impact.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:22 am

Awyndel wrote:Does pvp even have parry haste?

Agree with majiben testing if the seal procs can cause haste can possibly have a big impact.

PvP is combat, and combat has parry haste, so it stands to reason that it would. :D

More sincerely though, you can look at that log and find cases where the DK got parry-haste from my regular melee attacks, so it's clear that parry-haste mechanics work in PvP, and I see no reason why they'd work any differently than they do in PvE in that case. It would be very odd for them to write a separate parry-haste code block for PvE and PvP. I suspect it's just part of the underlying mechanics of how combat works, outside of the bosses that have it turned off.

I have not seen testing done on HV applications either, though again, given what we've seen I would be surprised if it works differently than any other parry. It seems to just be a simple melee attack that does 0 damage and applies a debuff, which is pretty straightforward.
Testing that should be easier, since I can just auto-attack and should get lots of HV parries. I may even be able to convince the same DK to help me with the test, since if he's is in blood presence he can pretty much go AFK and make a sandwich while I perform the experiment.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Thu Sep 03, 2009 12:20 pm

Warning: Massive Nerdery Ahead, as Knaughty might say.

Revisiting the "spike damage" calculation from an earlier page:
Mex pointed out to me that it's possible for a boss to double-parry, i.e. parry twice between two attacks, thus speeding it up even further. It's easy possible to incorporate this into the last calculation. We'll use the numbers from the round of simulations that properly included deflected HotRs in the simulation.

Note on Notation: I'll use "AA" as an abbreviation for an auto-attack, and "HV" for an application of the Holy Vengeance stack.

The boss has a 7.5% chance to parry. In the period between two swings (2 seconds), you make on average 3.6454 parry-able attacks (2 seconds / 0.54864 sec between attacks).. In reality, this could be as many as 10 (two melee attacks plus two reckoning attacks, four Holy Vengeance applications, and HotR plus another HV). We can consider both of these possibilities, an "average" worst case and a "really really worst case."

In either of these cases, we only care about whether we have 1 parry or 2+ parries. Since each parry decreases the swing speed by 40%, but can't decrease it below 20% of the base value, anything over 2 parries gives no additional haste than 2 parries would.

Incoming Combinatorics Spam.


Let's say we make N parry-able attacks (we'll plug in numbers later). The chance of a parry is p, and the chance of "anything else" is q=1-p. Then the probability of parrying at least k out of N swings ("ppks" for short)is:
Code: Select all
ppks(N,k,p) = nchoosek(N,k) * p^k * q^(N-k)

where nchoosek is the binomial coefficient (the number of combinations of N things taken k at a time). We need that factor because a string of attacks that looks like pqpqq gives the same result as ppqqq or pqqqp.
so the probabilities work out to:
0 parries, i.e. no haste: ppks(N,0,p)
1 parry, i.e. up to 40% haste: ppks(N,1,p)
2+ parries, i.e. up to 80% haste: 1-ppks(N,0,p)-ppks(N,1,p)

Let's look at the possible situations where we get 2+ parries:
  • If two attacks are independent and have an equal chance of landing at any time (this would properly model an auto-attack parry followed by a HotR parry, for example), the first attack generates the average of 0.2*0 + 0.4*0.2 + 0.4*0.4 = 0.24, or 24% haste, but the second attack generates far less. By the second attack, the boss has at maximum 60% of his swing timer left. The chance of him being between 20 and 60 is 0.4*0.4 (the chance he parried early on the last swing), and he'll get between 0% (at 20% left) and 40% (at 60% left) haste from the second parry, meaning that on average he only generates 0.4*0.4*0.2 = 0.032, or 3.2% haste from the second attack.

    The chance of this occurring works like this: There's a ppks(Na,1,p) chance of parrying an AA or HV, where Na is the number of AA and HV applications we get within the base swing timer. A HotR and the associated HV application have a probability of being parried of ppks(2,1,p). Since that accounts for 2 of our N attacks, Na must be N-2. We only get a HotR in every 6 seconds though, or 2/6=1/3 of the time.
    So the net chance of two individual parries from separate sources is ppks(N-2,1,p)*ppks(2,1,p)/3.
  • However, our parry-able attacks come in pairs of two to four; the AA and HV land at the same time and can be accompanied by a second AA+HV due to Reckoning, and the HotR + HV events act similarly. It's We can treat the two groups (HotR and AA) separately, and pretend that those occur isotropically, but we need to examine these "double-parry events" or "DPEs" carefully to get the statistics right.

    Fortunately for us, most of these cases drop out, because the HV and the attack that spawns it aren't independent. If the AA or HotR is parried, the HV never happens; likewise for the HV to be parried, the AA couldn't have been parried. The two are mutually exclusive. This means that we'll never run into a double-parry event from an HV and the attack that triggered it.

    What can occur is double-parry events due to Reckoning procs. There are four situations which cause a DPE:
    AA parried, Reck parried
    AA parried, Reck connects, HV parried
    AA connects, HV parried; Reck Parried
    AA connects, HV parried; Reck connects, HV parried.

    So there's a p^2 chance for the first, a qp^2 chance of the second and third, and p^2*q^2 of the fourth. Or p^2 * (1+q+q^2) total for one of these 4 possibilities, every time we get a regular auto-attack. If we assume that Reckoning has a 10% uptime, that happens 0.1*Na/2 times, for a net probability of
    (N-2)/20 * p^2 * (1+q+q^2).

    For two independent but simultaneous parries, the haste math works out like this:
    • If the first attack lands between 100% and 60% of the boss's swing timer left, it generates the full 40% haste. The second attack will generate between 0% and 40%, for an average of 20%. Thus, a double-parry event occurring between 0.6 and 1.0 generates 60% haste, on average.
    • If the first attack lands between 60% and 20%, it generates between 0-40% for an average of 20%, and the second generates nothing. Thus, a double-parry event occurring between 0.2 and 0.6 still only generates an average 0f 20% haste.
      A double parry landing when the boss has 20% or less of his swing timer left generates nothing, just like a single parry would.
    • Since the probability of the double-parry event is evenly distributed in time, there's a 40% chance it'll happen in either of the first two situations. Thus the net average parry-haste of a double-parry event is
      0.4*0.6+0.4*0.2 = 0.32 = 32%
      considerably higher than 24+3.2=27.2% predicted for independent but non-simultaneous events.
  • Finally, there's another possibility: we generate two parries from two sequential auto-attacks or HV applications. In this case, the parries are separated in time by player_swing_speed, which is around 1.3. Even in the best case, if the first parried attack came at 2 seconds left on the boss's swing timer (thus removing 40% of it, or 0.8 seconds), the second would come after the boss's next (already hasted) melee swing. So there's no chance of sequential auto-attacks causing double parry hasting, at least for 1.6 speed weapons and 2.0 speed bosses. In fact, for the second swing to land in time to cause parry haste (more than 20% of his swing timer left), the boss's swing speed would need to be roughly 1.3/0.4=3.25, which is possible but outside the scope of this quick calculation.

So now we have numbers:
  • A single-parry event generates an average of 24% haste, up to a maximum (worst-case) of 40% haste
  • A double-parry event generates an average of 32% haste, up to a maximum (worst-case) of 80% haste
  • Two individual parries from separate primary sources (HotR and auto-attack) cause an average of 27% haste, up to a maximum of 80% haste.
  • Two individual parries that are not part of a double-parry event from the subsequent auto-attacks or their associated HV procs can not cause more than a single-parry event, and thus can be safely ignored (they're accounted for in the single-parry probability).
  • The chance of a single-parry event happening is ppks(N,1,p).
  • The chance of a double-parry event happening is (N-2)/20 * p^2 * (1+q+q^2).
  • The chance of two individual parries from separate primary sources is ppks(N-2,1,p)*ppks(2,1,p)/3.

*Whew*
Now we have everything we need; the probability of each event, as well as the average and worst-case parry haste we can expect from it. Let's do this.

Boss damage is X per attack. Time between attacks is T. We'll use X=20k and T=2 seconds (using the parry-hasted value in the last round was an error, though a harmless one in the relative sense since it cancels out).
Two subsequent un-avoided attacks results in a DTPS of X/T, or 10k dtps. This is double what you would have if you avoided every other attack (5k DTPS).

If the second attack is parry-hasted, the DTPS spikes up to X/(1-c)T, where c is the amount of parry-haste in decimal format (i.e. 10% = 0.1). For the numbers we're going to use:
Code: Select all
                       Avg    Worst   
single-parry events   13.2k   16.7k   
double-parry events   14.7k   50.0k   
2 indep. events       13.7k   50.0k 


And the probabilities, worked out for p1=0.075 and p2=0.06741 (representing 3.03594 expertise skill), are:
Code: Select all
N = 10                  p1       p2      diff
single-parry events   0.3718   0.3597   0.0121
double-parry events   0.0063   0.0051   0.0012
2 indep. events       0.0161   0.0139   0.0022

N = 6                   p1       p2      diff
single-parry events   0.3047   0.2853   0.0194
double-parry events   0.0031   0.0025   0.0006
2 indep. events       0.0110   0.0092   0.0018

N = 4                   p1       p2      diff
single-parry events   0.2374   0.2187   0.0187
double-parry events   0.0016   0.0013   0.0003
2 indep. events       0.0064   0.0053   0.0011


DTPS prevented is calculated by summing the product of the spike DTPS by the decreased probability of that type of spike occurring. For the average, a single-parry causes 24% haste, double-parry 32%, and independent alternating parries 27%. Assuming 14.4% chance of not dodging either attack, we get:
0.144 * ( (13.2k * 0.0194) + (14.7k * 0.006) + (13.7k * 0.0018) ) = 41.7 average spike DTPS reduction

For the "worst-case" numbers we do the same thing using the DTPS values in the worst case column (though this time we won't multiply by the 0.4, that would be right for calculating averages, but we want to know about the absolute worst case).

The net results look like this, for all three values of N:
Code: Select all
N=10                     Avg     Worst
single-parry events   23.0336   29.1759
double-parry events    2.5530    8.6800
2 indep. events        4.3758   15.9717
Total                 29.9624   53.8277

N=6                       Avg     Worst
single-parry events   36.8905   46.7280
double-parry events    1.2765    4.3400
2 indep. events        3.5910   13.1072
Total                 41.7580   64.1752

N=4                      Avg     Worst
single-parry events   35.5908   45.0817
double-parry events    0.6382    2.1700
2 indep. events        2.2702    8.2863
Total                 38.4993   55.5381


These are still compared to the 23.3 DTPS reduction that an equivalent amount of dodge would provide. So expertise is as much as 2x more effective in the average cases, and 2x-3x more effective at reducing the largest spikes, if we believe this metric is meaningful (do we?).

Hopefully someone will come along and check my math here, so I can go about integrating it into the script.
Last edited by theckhd on Fri Sep 04, 2009 7:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
"Theck, Bringer of Numbers and Pounding Headaches," courtesy of Grehn|Skipjack.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby tlitp » Thu Sep 03, 2009 1:47 pm

Since each parry decreases the swing speed by 40%, but can't decrease it below 20% of the base value, anything over 2 parries gives no additional haste than 2 parries would.

precisely the reason for which higher order PHs are to be ignored
(...) our parry-able attacks come in pairs of two; the auto-attack plus HV proc land at effectively the same time, and the HotR plus HV proc act similarly. However, we can treat the two groups (HotR and auto-attacks) separately, and pretend that those occur isotropically.

there are three groups of double-parry opportunities : AA+HV, HotR+HV, Reck+HV (your simplifying hypothesis sounds about right, though); however, neither one can lead to a double-parry event - a trigger that isn't successful will effectively nullify any contribution of HV; there is only one case where double-parry events are possible, a Reck proc ((AA OR HV) AND (Reck OR HV))
Thus the net average parry-haste of a double-parry event is
0.4*0.6+0.4*0.2 = 0.32 = 32%

don't forget that Reck(reck_points=5) is computed to roughly 0.1 in typical conditions, i.e. one Reck proc to about 10 AAs; the average PH of a DPE is 0.32, but the likelihood of DPEs is comparatively less relevant than the likelihood of SPEs
So there's no chance of sequential auto-attacks causing double parry hasting

quoted for greater truth


basically, the math was fine, while the model itself was a bit flawed :p
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