A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby mythor » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:09 am

I was under the impression resistance would be removed in MoP, the beta had the resistance pane removed so I thought it was gone.

But seeing Mirror still has the same on use ability I tested it and it still does resist.

Can we assume that by 'removing resistance' all they did was remove resistance effects/spells for MoP content?
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:01 am

When you tested, do you mean it increased the resisted amount?

I wouldn't be surprised that they left Resistance in the game (hell, block rating is still there, take a look at your Block tooltip - 0 rating gives 0.00% block ftw). But I'm surprised that they didn't change the existing trinkets. Maybe they'll just eliminate them at 90, or raise the resistance coefficient such that Cata levels of resistance won't give any measurable effect.

Sort of like Agi->dodge. Technically we still do get dodge from agility, but the conversion is something like 10k agi -> 1% dodge, which makes it basically irrelevant.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby mythor » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:02 am

I went from 0 damage resisted to ~50% damage resisted, the same as I had in Cata.

Coefficient 'fix', sound very blizzard like.

I hope to have a level 90 soon that owns a mirror, I wonder what that will yield. For 85 content at least mirror is still a very nice trinket.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:19 am

Something seems to have changed with Harsh Words. On live, while naked, my WoG tooltip reads:
"Consumes up to 3 Holy Power to heal a friendly target for 5131 or harm an enemy target for 3946 per charge of Holy Power"

3946/5131 = 76.9%.

I think we're going to need another round of WoG testing (both offensive and defensive) to see what the SP coefficients are.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:55 am

Reconfirmed that EF is not being affected by SoI:

WoG+SoI: 7358-7912 healing
WoG+SoT: 6999-7532 healing
EF+SoI: 7026-7528 healing, 729-730 ticks
EF+SoT: 7004-7528 healing, 729-730 ticks

SP was 4642
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:13 am

Harsh word testing: at 4642 SP, the tooltip reads 7267 healing or 5590 damage per HP
The previous data set suggests that the tooltip matches the observed healing value. This data set suggests that the damage value is accurate (5582 average out of 82 casts).

Thus, we can assume the tooltip is accurate and save ourselves a lot of time. Just swapping gear around:
Code: Select all
SP     WoG   HW
4642  7267  5590
4284  7092  5455
3796  6853  5271 
3306  6612  5086
2986  6456  4965
2734  6332  4870
2220  6080  4676
1582  5768  4436
1104  5533  4256
818  5393  4148
532  5253  4040
282  5131  3946


Fit SP vs. WoG:
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x) = a*x+b
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       a =      0.4901  (0.4899, 0.4902)
       b =        4992  (4992, 4993)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 1.241
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 0.3523


Fit SP vs. HW:
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x) = a*x+b
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       a =      0.3771  (0.3769, 0.3772)
       b =        3839  (3839, 3840)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 0.8075
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 0.2842


Fitting SP vs. HW/WoG:
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x) = a*x+b
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       a =   2.25e-008  (-3.243e-009, 4.823e-008)
       b =      0.7691  (0.769, 0.7691)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 3.288e-008
  R-square: 0.275
  Adjusted R-square: 0.2025
  RMSE: 5.734e-005


Conclusion: Harsh words does exactly 76.91% of WoG's healing value as damage.

<edit> Just checked, and EF's tooltip matches WoG's. So the base heal of both is still identical.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:37 am

Re-confirming that EF does not benefit from BoG:
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-d ... d%3D114637

EF heal w/o BoG: 7135
EF tick w/o BoG: 709
EF heal w/5 BoG: 14861
EF tick w/5 BoG: 709

21.11% mastery, 31% BoG per stack, 155% at full stack
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby mythor » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:23 am

mythor wrote:I went from 0 damage resisted to ~50% damage resisted, the same as I had in Cata.

Coefficient 'fix', sound very blizzard like.

I hope to have a level 90 soon that owns a mirror, I wonder what that will yield. For 85 content at least mirror is still a very nice trinket.


On my level 90 prot warrior using my Mirror or Prismatic Elixir, I still resist exactly the same as I did in 85 Cataclysm.

I expect blizzard to 'fix' this as soon as there is a way to use this effectively in MoP content.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:09 am

Mythor (or anyone else with a L90 warrior on beta), could you do me a favor and get me the base (naked, unbuffed) STR and mastery values? Mostly mastery, it's 17.6% at L85, and I'm curious if it stays that way for L90.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby mythor » Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:02 pm

Naked blood elf level 90 prot warrior

Str: 203
Agi: 135
Stam: 216

AP: 656
Mastery: 17.6%

Dodge: 5.01%
Parry: 3.21%
Block: 17.07%
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:37 pm

Eternal Flame's HoT is now scaling with Bastion:
viewtopic.php?p=739455#p739455
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby Schroom » Tue Sep 11, 2012 7:45 am

ok, I figure this fits best in here, is there anything that let us believe that they change vengeance again? I mean it is just too OP. I did 80k on Yorshaj, 136k DPS overall on Baloroc HM the other night, our "blood" tank did almost 200k burst DPS on the burning tendon on Spine of Deathwing. our DPS are crying, and I understand them. If a dps with BiS items and almost Perfect playstyle don't even have a chance on beating the tanks it is rather frustrating, and I feel with them.

we also whtinessed a bloodDK doing almost 8 Mio healing on spine in LFR, I did a 800k WoG in ICC on the Lootship.... wth
Last edited by Schroom on Tue Sep 11, 2012 11:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby mythor » Tue Sep 11, 2012 8:31 am

After reading Thecks cool prot war blog post, I was reminded that I promised to post data from live.

I did not do this yet because it's a bothersome job to collect data. There are likely addons out there that help you with this but my quick google search yielded no useful results. So I made a simple addon that prints all the relevant data to chatlog when you change a piece of gear and appends a predefined tag to it. Then all you have to do is grep the tag from the log and you have all the data. I'll publish the addon for those who care later this week.

New data using 50 samples from a bloodelf prot war level 85 on live.
Code: Select all
General model:
  dodge_fit(x) = 1 / (1 / Cd + 0.956 / x)
  Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
    Cd =       91.03  (90.95, 91.1)

dodge_fit_GoF =
           sse: 8.7511e-05
       rsquare: 1.0000
           dfe: 46
    adjrsquare: 1.0000
          rmse: 0.0014

Code: Select all
General model:
  parry_fit(x) = 1 / (1 / Cp + 0.956 / (x / 243.6))
  Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
    Cp =       237.1  (237.1, 237.2)

parry_fit_GoF =
           sse: 1.5810e-06
       rsquare: 1.0000
           dfe: 14
    adjrsquare: 1.0000
          rmse: 3.3604e-04


With these extra points we hone in a bit closer to Cd
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Tue Sep 11, 2012 9:07 am

That addon would be spiffy, and thanks for the update.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby mythor » Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:56 pm

http://www.curse.com/addons/wow/statslog

Create a chat channel
Setup a tag and enter the id of that channel
Add, remove or change gear
Logout and grep for your tag in your chatlog
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:31 pm

That addon is dynamite. I just generated a quick data set using my prot and ret gear, and got the following results:
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x,y) = 3+164./243.6+1/(1/C+0.885/(y+(x-164)./243.6))
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       C =       235.1  (235, 235.2)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 0.0006873
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 0.00431


Curiously, I get a slightly better fit if I allow the str->parry conversion factor to vary:
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x,y) = 3+164./a+1/(1/C+0.885/(y+(x-164)./a))
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       C =       237.5  (237, 238)
       a =       243.9  (243.9, 244)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 0.0001621
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 0.002122


Now, it's not curious that the fit gets better - more degrees of freedom will do that. But I noticed this gives me a C that matches the warrior version. How sure are we that a is identically 243.6?

Also, I've written a quick MATLAB function that extracts the data from a chat log produced by the addon. If I could convince a bunch of people to install the addon, follow the instructions to generate a chat log, and send me their text files, we can generate a truly massive amount of data and nail these values down very accurately.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby mythor » Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:02 am

I should have made it at the start of beta, took 30 minutes perhaps, and a breeze instead of a bother now. The added significant figures and reduced chance of typo's is a benefit as well.

More data would be lovely, the addon does not check for duplicate entries, as multiple datasets still might give you those, so this has to be filtered out post process.

I still want to believe that the Cp's to be the same :)

On a side note, I remember in early beta that Paladin and Warrior values where matching, does anybody remember when they changed? My guess would be when Blizzard decided that Shield Block would block everything for 6 seconds. I would just love to know their motivation behind the numbers.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby mythor » Wed Sep 12, 2012 6:06 am

I updated statslog to also include player class and level to make it easier for mass processing.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby NinJOu » Wed Sep 12, 2012 6:48 am

Does your addon detects when stats are modified by a buff ?

Thanks for your work
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby mythor » Wed Sep 12, 2012 7:01 am

No it does not. In that case you can manually call /printstats.

I might add it in later, it requires keeping track of all your combat stats.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Wed Sep 12, 2012 10:10 am

mythor wrote:I still want to believe that the Cp's to be the same :)

On a side note, I remember in early beta that Paladin and Warrior values where matching, does anybody remember when they changed? My guess would be when Blizzard decided that Shield Block would block everything for 6 seconds. I would just love to know their motivation behind the numbers.

I'll take a look at some more paladin data and see if I can convince myself that I'm under-estimating, but I doubt it.

I forget exactly when the equations changed, but I think it was around the same time as the Vengeance changes were implemented. It could have been earlier, though, and we just didn't notice it until then.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Wed Sep 12, 2012 10:48 am

Taking this data set provided by Pauladin, I think I can make fairly solid statements about our DR equations. Mythor will be pleased. :)

Parry fit (using x=str-baseStr, y=preParry):
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x,y) = 3+164./a+1./(1/C+k./(y+x./a))
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       C =       237.2  (237.2, 237.2)
       a =       243.6  (243.6, 243.6)
       k =       0.886  (0.886, 0.886)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 7.574e-011
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 7.13e-007


Dodge fit (using x=preDodge):
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x) = 2+3.01+1/(1/C+k/x)
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       C =       66.55  (66.41, 66.69)
       k =       0.886  (0.8856, 0.8863)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 0.003583
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 0.004888


Block fit, excluding two obviously errant data points caused by ret paladins (low by exactly 10%):
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x) = 13+1/(1/C+k/x)
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       C =       150.4  (150.3, 150.5)
       k =       0.886  (0.8859, 0.8861)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 0.0005365
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 0.001904


Comments:
1) Our estimate of k=0.885 was slightly off, probably due to a lack of solid data (all previous data sets used rounded values, which limited our accuracy). The consistency of k between all three fits is just too hard to ignore. Most importantly, the parry fit is extremely good; none of the residuals are larger than 0.000005, or 5E-6. The parry fit alone is enough to convince me of k and Cp, both because of the sheer quality of the fit and because it predicts a correctly.
2) The fitted Cp value is fairly consistent with the warrior one. Given how good a fit we have, I suspect that Cp=237.2 for both warriors and paladins.
3) The dodge cap isn't exactly the same as Cataclysm. If I fix the doge cap to the Cata value, I get this fit:
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x) = 2+3.01+1/(1/65.631440+k/x)
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       k =      0.8839  (0.8837, 0.8841)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 0.007511
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 0.007053

While that's good, it's not as good as the one where we allow C to vary, nor is the k value consistent with the incredible parry fit we have. If I force k=0.884 in the parry fit, I get this:
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x,y) = 3+164./a+1./(1/C+0.884./(y+x./a))
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       C =       235.8  (235.6, 236)
       a =       244.1  (244.1, 244.2)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 0.0007984
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 0.002307

We already know that this value of a is blatantly wrong, and the RMSE gets almost 4 orders of magnitude worse. Furthermore, the residual errors now include values as high as 0.006, or 6E-3, large enough to cause demonstrable rounding errors on the tooltip.

If we instead assume that k=0.886, I get this fit for dodge:
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x) = 2+3.01+1/(1/C+0.886/x)
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       C =       66.56  (66.5, 66.61)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 0.003584
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 0.004872

As much as I really, really think it makes sense logically that the dodge cap is the same as the Cata version, I feel like the data just doesn't support it anymore. I can't fathom a guess at why it changed by ~0.9, but it seems to have.
4) Block's cap is slightly altered based on the new value of k; this is also more consistent with the estimates I've seen from warrior data. Fixing k gives us a very clear value:
Code: Select all
General model:
     f(x) = 13+1/(1/C+0.886/x)
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
       C =       150.4  (150.4, 150.4)

Goodness of fit:
  SSE: 0.0005367
  R-square: 1
  Adjusted R-square: 1
  RMSE: 0.001898



Conclusions:
I think our new best estimates for the following constants are:
k=0.886
Cp=237.20
Cd=66.56
Cb=150.40
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby xstratax » Wed Sep 12, 2012 11:35 am

You guys rule, My addon is getting more and more accurate by the day. :D

This is what I have currently for level 90:

Paladin:

Code: Select all
k = .886
c_D = 66.56
c_P = 237.2
c_B = 150.4
Strength Scalar = 951.16
Mastery Scalar = 600
Block Scalar = 1

Warrior:

Code: Select all
k = .956
c_D = 91.03
c_P = 237.2
c_B = 150.4
Strength Scalar = 951.16
Mastery Scalar = 272.6
Block Scalar = (.5/2.2) = .227272


Did I get the wrong values for anything?

<Edit>

Also are base stats (Str & Stam in this case) independent of Class? If not then Ill have to come up with a better solution for my tables.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby theckhd » Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:26 pm

I'm pretty sure base stats vary by class. My notes have 164 str for a L85 paladin and 189 str for a L85 warrior.
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Re: A Call to Arms - MoP Mechanics Testing

Postby xstratax » Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:44 pm

Well crud...so much for the simple solution. Now I have to find a list of values for the various races per Warrior, thankfully your spreadsheet covers Paladin values already.
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