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Theorycrafting Item Scores

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Theorycrafting Item Scores

Postby Thelmiance » Fri Nov 26, 2010 7:53 am

Hi all,

I've put together a Spreadsheet to try to start working out some item values. I find it useful to have a quick comparison of items, especially while leveling and going through the first set of dungeons, where there are a lot of potential upgrades available. Note that this is a first attempt at this, and will likely need improvement. The values should be roughly useful already, though.

I started out with trying to work out an equivalency for dodge/parry/mastery. With the ability to reforge, plus gems, we have a huge amount of flexibility there. Since dodge and parry have separate diminishing returns, there is always a balancing act between the two which causes one or the other to be slightly better depending on your current gear. At most gear levels, Mastery is strictly better than either. However, there is still an equivalence there. Strength and Agility also contribute to avoidance, so I've capture their values as well. Agility actually turns out to be a very strong stat at 85, considerably better than strength. Armour, of course, also comes into play for reducing total damage taken, so it gets a value as well. I've coded all the forumals for these stats in, which took a bit of work. They all match up exactly with what I see at 80, and I assume the coefficients that have been worked out are accurate for 85 as well. These values are the strongest part of this work, accurately comparing the average damage reduction values of the given stats. Optimizing using just these values should give the lowest total average damage taken. The remainder of the numbers suffer from somewhat more arbitrariness.

For stamina, my thinking was that I always want to gem stamina for blue slots, but I don't want to give up huge amounts of avoidance on gear to gain more health, especially with the healer mana issues at 85. So, I've set the value to stamina to be very slightly more than the highest other value, accounting for the fact that stamina costs less in terms if iLevel points (that is, a gem is 30 stamina but 20 of other ratings).

Finally, I've tried to capture the values of threat stats. This is admitedly less scientific than the avoidance values, because there isn't a real equivalency here. I've used the values from Theck's graphs to give a rough idea of the relative values of the threat stats. I've then used an arbitrary scaling factor to add them to the avoidance values to come up with a final item score.

The level 80 values reflect my gear, which is basically 264. The level 85 values reflect the BiS for 85 at this time.

I'd love to get some more input on how to improve this methodology, including any bugs in the spreadsheet, suggestions for some more scientific way to handle threat values, questions about any part of my reasoning, or general comments.
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Re: Theorycrafting Item Scores

Postby Thelmiance » Fri Nov 26, 2010 1:54 pm

For those not interested in the actual spreadsheet, here is the list of values at 85. I hope this is useful for people using lootrank or pawn or some equivalent.

Mastery Rating 0.540
Expertise Rating 0.540
Parry Rating 0.482
Dodge Rating 0.441
Agility 0.436
Stamina 0.361
Strength 0.361
Hit Rating 0.360
(Base) Armour 0.071
Armour 0.065
Crit Rating 0.210
Attack Power 0.105
Haste Rating 0.090
Spell Power 0.039
Intellect 0.045

Obviously, reaching the cap on expertise or hit would make those values worth less. Additionally, if you're more insterested in threat, those values would go up relative to the avoidance values. Mastery isn't possible to cap at this point, requiring roughly 2500 more mastery than tier 11 would have even reforging and gemming for it. It would take slightly less than doubling dodge, parry, and mastery values to reach the cap. The bottom four stats are essentially useless. In some (rare) cases, taking an agility+crit+mastery piece can be an upgrade. This is mainly useful for cloak, neck, and rings, and is something to keep an eye on when you're first building your sets.

The relative value of parry and dodge very much depends on how much of each you currently have. The T11 gear set has about 400 more dodge than parry, so parry becomes slightly more attractive. Reforging some dodge into parry would be a gain in total avoidance, assuming the piece already had mastery.

Note also that the 19.66% damage taken at 85 is much higher than the 10.78% in ICC25 gear at 80, but is not that much higher than the 17.29% damage taken when the -20% Chill of the Throne dodge debuff is applied: roughly 13% more damage taken. However, mitigating that extra damage would take more than a thousand additional mastery points, for instance.
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Re: Theorycrafting Item Scores

Postby Digren » Tue Nov 30, 2010 4:02 pm

For avoidance (and hence survivability), Agility is better than Strength. (75% of the value of dodge rating compared to 25% of the value of parry rating.)

I think thus that I need to include gear with agi/sta + mastery + expertise on the tank gear lists. Compared to a piece with str/sta + mastery + dodge/parry, you get something with reasonably close survivability but significantly better threat.
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Re: Theorycrafting Item Scores

Postby Thelmiance » Mon Dec 13, 2010 7:42 am

Updated to include some trinket comparisons at 85. A trinket that seems to be getting overlooked is Tia's Grace constant mastery and essentially constant agility is a very solid option for a tanking trinket, if you're at all interested in mitigation/avoidance. The proc on Leaden Despair is so poor that I would consider it an option only if you really want stam at the expense of everything else.
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Re: Theorycrafting Item Scores

Postby Maelsstrom » Mon Dec 13, 2010 12:19 pm

Assuming EH is still important (which is up for debate but not enough data yet), I think you're undervaluing stamina. I have a similar spreadsheet and the way I do the conversion is to work out the value of stamina relative to armor with an assumed % physical damage (the rest being magical or bleed). Then I anchor the value of armor to dodge/parry/exp/block/etc by comparing average damage reduction, again with assumptions around how fast the mob swings, the amount of damage per hit, my attack speed (avg for attacks that can be parried and therefore benefit from expertise).

This works up values for damage reduction weightings. I use Theck's awesome work for weapon dps and stat comparisons to work up a threat weightings. And finally, there's stamina all by itself. Roll these use in whatever proportions you feel is valuable to come up with which gear is better for general purpose tanking.

I find agility is way better than strength and therefore agi cloaks, rings, and necks rank abnormally higher than strength-versions for the same ilvl.

All I really have trouble with are the trinkets and coming up with reasonable assumptions around up-times and the value of on-use (that often doesn't get used) versus proc-based.
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Re: Theorycrafting Item Scores

Postby abinning » Mon Dec 13, 2010 1:05 pm

you should pop in a pawn string formatter.
like....
Code: Select all
( Pawn: v1: "Combined": Stamina=1.358, Strength=0.826, Agility=1.436, DodgeRating=1.236, ParryRating=1.382, MasteryRating=2.036, ExpertiseRating=1.08, HitRating=0.72, Armour=0.086, (Base)Armour=0.095, CritRating=0.42, AttackPower=0.21, HasteRating=0.18, SpellPower=0.077, Intellect=0.09 )

This should work.... Although I just slapped it together at work, it might need a few fixes...
Code: Select all
="( Pawn: v1: "&"""Combined"""&": "&SUBSTITUTE(A2," ","")&"="&ROUND(E2,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A3," ","")&"="&ROUND(E3,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A4," ","")&"="&ROUND(E4,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A5," ","")&"="&ROUND(E5,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A6," ","")&"="&ROUND(E6,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A7," ","")&"="&ROUND(E7,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A8," ","")&"="&ROUND(E8,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A9," ","")&"="&ROUND(E9,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A10," ","")&"="&ROUND(E10,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A11," ","")&"="&ROUND(E11,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A12," ","")&"="&ROUND(E12,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A13," ","")&"="&ROUND(E13,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A14," ","")&"="&ROUND(E14,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A15," ","")&"="&ROUND(E15,3)&", "&SUBSTITUTE(A16," ","")&"="&ROUND(E16,3)&" )"
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Re: Theorycrafting Item Scores

Postby Thelmiance » Mon Dec 13, 2010 2:08 pm

Maelsstrom wrote:Assuming EH is still important (which is up for debate but not enough data yet)


Yes, I've proceeded from the axiom that this is no longer true. It's certainly up for debate, but I think it's worth having the numbers under that assumption. That's how I've been gearing, until I can get some raiding experience and see if that holds up well for me or not.

And yes, without having access to a number of the trinkets, and only a few of them seeming to have EJ or wowhead work on ICDs and proc rates, it's hard to tell. If anyone has any of the tanking trinkets and a mod to monitor uptime, I'd be extremely interested in those numbers.

I've also added the Pawn formatter as suggested. A lootrank one would also be very useful, maybe I'll get to that later.
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