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Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby knaughty » Thu Oct 21, 2010 2:07 am

daiceman wrote:Just wanting to confirm. using the CS-J-CS-X-CS-ShoR model, if your ShoR misses, is it advantageous to judge again to attempt to turn proc SD? Your initial dps comparison of rotation abilities seems to confirm that this would be a dps increase.

My understanding is that you don't fish for SD procs, you just press ShoR till it goes off.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Awyndel » Thu Oct 21, 2010 2:24 am

Perhaps a silly question. But does the rotation simulation press shor again if it misses untill it actually goes off?
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby knaughty » Thu Oct 21, 2010 3:26 am

Awyndel wrote:Perhaps a silly question. But does the rotation simulation press shor again if it misses untill it actually goes off?

The analytical version does, and I believe the sim does now as well.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:26 am

daiceman wrote:Just wanting to confirm. using the CS-J-CS-X-CS-ShoR model, if your ShoR misses, is it advantageous to judge again to attempt to turn proc SD? Your initial dps comparison of rotation abilities seems to confirm that this would be a dps increase.

Not really. Like I said in the rotation comparison:

Theck wrote:Given that there isn't a significant difference between #2 and #10, Sacred Duty prioritization isn't worth bothering with. It causes empty GCDs thanks to ShoR misses that offsets any benefit it might convey. It can help in a few situations with high AS priorities, but those are always sub-optimal anyway.


The data sets show that queue #2 (SD fishing) comes out 9 to 12 DPS ahead of queue #10 (no SD fishing). That's not a statistically significant difference in this simulation though. The DPS output of queue #10 itself varies by 9 DPS between the two data sets. In my estimation, anything less than 15-20 DPS in this simulation can be considered "noise."

Also keep in mind that this sim is "perfect" - i.e. no latency, it doesn't make mistakes (i.e. accidentally casting the wrong spell when something better is available), and so on. From personal experience, I am much more consistent when I have a stable rotation to follow. Fishing for SD procs will throw you off of the stable rotation, which increases the likelihood that you'll make a mistake. So in practice, it's entirely possible that SD prioritization will actually decrease your DPS just due to that, even if the ~10 DPS improvement is real and not noise.

There's one caveat here, which is that you can fill some of the empty GCDs created with Cons, which will be a slight DPS increase. However, even if you were lucky enough to fill all 43 of the empty GCDs with a 10k damage Consecration, we're still talking about 430k/(30k*1.5)= 10 DPS.

Awyndel wrote:Perhaps a silly question. But does the rotation simulation press shor again if it misses untill it actually goes off?

Yes, if ShoR is the highest thing in the queue. The SD prioritization schemes will occasionally push back ShoR if it misses and the conditions are right (Judgement available, SD not active). That's one of the reasons that SD prioritization isn't as good as it seems - it gives you a higher chance to crit with ShoR, but pushes ShoR and CS back, and creates empty GCDs.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:45 am

Robbert wrote:Any chance you could include Quel'Serrar in your weapon comparisons on the first page of posts? I'd guess given the 2.0 speed compared to most tanking weapons it will rank reasonably well for it's item level, but some hard numbers would be nice.


Yeah, I'll try and remember to include it in the next update. If I forget, feel free to harass me until I fix it.

I'm also planning on incorporating Awyndel's suggestion of plotting weapon DPS assuming one is already hit-capped and expertise soft-capped.

Simming out AoE rotations and sub-20% rotations are also on the list of high priority things to do.

Those, along with updates of all of the simulation results to incorporating the new buffs we got a-la Ret, are all waiting on this data set:

theckhd wrote:With all of the Ret changes (hopefully) finished now, I want to do a sanity check on the code to make sure we haven't missed anything. In particular, I have suspicions that Censure was buffed a little, but there may be other things we missed.

Note that I need this information from Live servers, not from beta

What I need: Parses of all of our abilities at several AP/SP values. This includes Exorcism, HoWrath, each Seal/Judgement combo, etc.
How I need it:
  1. Find an isolated dummy with no debuffs. Multiple dummies are fine for HammerNova and Holy Wrath, as long as you remain in the same place and consistently hit the same number of dummies.
  2. Equip a particular gear set, ideally one with no procs to speak of and no set bonuses.
  3. Record and upload a parse containing 50+ casts of each ability, the more the better.
  4. Link the parse here along with all of the following information (any parses that don't include this information are effectively useless to me):
    • AP
    • SP
    • Weapon tooltip damage (i.e. x-y)
    • Weapon tooltip speed (i.e. 2.6)
    • Weapon Name (so I can double-check that you haven't given me paper doll values)
    • Talent Spec
    • Glyphs
    • Dummy level
  5. Repeat this process for several gear sets with widely varying AP/SP. Ideally I'd like one with low AP/SP, one with high AP / low SP, and one with low AP / high SP. Even better if you can equip items such that one of the stats is the same between parses (i.e. equip a bunch of INT gear to raise SP without changing AP at all).



That said, even if I had that data set, I wouldn't have had time to get it done this week. I have a couple deadlines looming and just had another small project* dropped on me this week, so I've been absolutely swamped at work. I'm hoping that if I work through the weekend, I'll be able to finish all of my real work and all of the code updates I want to finish. I'm visiting family this weekend anyway, so I won't have WoW as a distraction (in fact, I've been busy enough that I haven't logged into WoW since Sunday night, which is probably the first time this has happened in well over a year).

*If anyone has good advice/lecture notes/visuals for teaching entanglement and Bell's inequality to first-year undergraduate non-science majors (yes, you read that right), it would help me a lot.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Awyndel » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:13 am

theckhd wrote:That said, even if I had that data set, I wouldn't have had time to get it done this week. I have a couple deadlines looming and just had another small project* dropped on me this week, so I've been absolutely swamped at work. I'm hoping that if I work through the weekend, I'll be able to finish all of my real work and all of the code updates I want to finish. I'm visiting family this weekend anyway, so I won't have WoW as a distraction (in fact, I've been busy enough that I haven't logged into WoW since Sunday night, which is probably the first time this has happened in well over a year).

*If anyone has good advice/lecture notes/visuals for teaching entanglement and Bell's inequality to first-year undergraduate non-science majors (yes, you read that right), it would help me a lot.


Can't help you there I'm afraid :P .

However, us tankadins have untill about halfway through december to get our stuff together, and even then we have some time to finetune throughout the first tier. I realise we ask a lot of questions now, and we want all the answers now. But the truth is it doesn't really matter for current content does it now. So take your time man.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:44 am

Rabs wrote:
theckhd wrote:
sculder wrote:Anyone tested it since 4.0? I don't think they changed it again, but you never know...

I heard that they nerfed it again in 4.0.1 because it was too powerful for certain classes. Apparently they added an internal cooldown of some sort? I haven't had time to seek out the exact details yet.

Not sure if this helps you figure it out at all, but here we go:
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/snd1 ... details/0/
Half hour of auto-attacking. Last Word Heroic enchanted with Mongoose, 28 haste rating, 1.79 swing timer.


I'm not sure about that log. You saw 27 procs in 1019 swings, or a 2.65% proc chance. For a 1 PPM enchant and a 1.79 swing timer, you'd expect 2.98%, which is reasonably close to what you observed. In your parse, you never refresh the buff - it always falls off before the net application. The minimum time between the buff falling off and being recast is 6.315 seconds, for a total time difference between buff casts of 21.315 seconds.

In 15 seconds, you'd have N=8 chances to refresh the buff with a 1.79 swing speed. If the proc chance p=0.0298, the chance that you do not get another proc in N swings is (1-p)^N, or 78.5%. That means you should see a 21.5% uptime, a little lower than the 22.3% you see in your log.

I'm a little rusty on whether this also means you should see the proc refresh itself 21.5% of the time - I think it's more complicated than that, but I might be overthinking it. I don't have time right now to go refresh my memory of conditional probabilities.

So it's still possible that they implemented a ~20 second internal cooldown on the proc, which could explain the small difference in the observed and theoretical proc chance as well as the fact that it's never refreshed.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Rabs » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:47 am

^ Would me auto-attacking with mongoose for an hour or so help at all or be a waste of my time?

theckhd wrote:What I need: Parses of all of our abilities at several AP/SP values. This includes Exorcism, HoWrath, each Seal/Judgement combo, etc.


Here's a start:
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/us2c89or3w24j2e4/

Attack Power: 3980
Spell Power: 1216
Weapon Damage: 296-551
Weapon Speed: 1.60
Weapon Name: Mithrios, Bronzebeard's Legacy (Heroic)
Spec: http://wowtal.com/#k=-kfF-NSL.a6d.paladin.
Glyphs: Seal of Truth, Shield of Righteousness, Judgement

Dummy Level: Heroic Training dummy (Level 83). AS & HotR hitting an Expert Training dummy as well, Holy Wrath hitting 2 Expert Training Dummies
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Liyalai » Fri Oct 22, 2010 2:04 am

Would like to help out, however I've no idea how to do/upload logs. Is there a guide somewhere or is it stupidly easy enough not to need one?
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Rabs » Fri Oct 22, 2010 4:37 am

Liyalai wrote:Would like to help out, however I've no idea how to do/upload logs. Is there a guide somewhere or is it stupidly easy enough not to need one?


Here's a quick rundown on how to do it:
http://www.worldoflogs.com/help/
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Fri Oct 22, 2010 5:23 am

Liyalai wrote:Would like to help out, however I've no idea how to do/upload logs. Is there a guide somewhere or is it stupidly easy enough not to need one?


There's a short guide in the first post of the Call to Arms thread.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Meloree » Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:13 am

theckhd wrote:*If anyone has good advice/lecture notes/visuals for teaching entanglement and Bell's inequality to first-year undergraduate non-science majors (yes, you read that right), it would help me a lot.


This might help..
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Suzytincan » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:25 am

theckhd wrote:*If anyone has good advice/lecture notes/visuals for teaching entanglement and Bell's inequality to first-year undergraduate non-science majors (yes, you read that right), it would help me a lot.


 Theck,
 
Keep in mind that I only know you from your work on these forums. So my understanding of your personality is very narrow. As a result if I misjudge something, then I offer my most sincere apologies.
 
Having said that, I would suggest taking a cue from Hawking on this one. He's become the rock star of the physics community not so much for his contributions to physics directly, but his ability to convey the principles to the layperson. He does this primarily by avoiding the math involved wherever possible.
 
For entanglement, for instance, you could start by first describing the strange situation where features of a particle seem to exist in many states at once until measured* (up and down spin could be nice for this... while they may not correctly understand what that means, its easy to picture something spinning up and something spinning down), at which point the multiple states seem to collapse and a single state is observed (up!). Then describe how particles can become entangled so that whatever you read for a state on one, you always read the same state on the other (up, up!). Now you can draw an arrow on the board to the right where one particle moves at the speed of light for 2 seconds in that direction, then a second arrow to the left where the other particles moves at the speed of light for 2 seconds in that direction. With a simple 2+2=4, students can pick up the fact that anything traveling between the two at the speed of light would take 4 seconds to get there. Finally, you can describe observing features simultaneously on both and how the measurements still match despite the fact that they should need 4 seconds to "tell" each other which state they are going to collapse to.
 
For non-science students, you aren't going to catch them up on the math required for a deeper understanding in a single course (heck, my understanding could be way off), and frankly you'd probably lose them if you tried. My opinion would be to instill a fascination in them for the world of physics. Make them understand the weird and crazy stuff that is the fabric of our world. Then once their imaginations are captured, they can go and educate themselves on what they need for a better understanding.
 
Ok, I'm sure I've belabored the point sufficiently. I'm sure its all stuff you already thought about, but I wanted to try to make a little contribution to help since you've done so much for this community!
 
Ian
 
* BTW, I think I agree with Schrödinger and Einstein in this one. The cat isn't both alive and dead, and God doesn't play at dice. I suspect we'll one day find that our understanding is off in some fundamental way. Much as we observed small problems with Newton's description of the world which eventually lead to Einstein and his various theories.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Awyndel » Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:09 am

Suzytincan wrote:I suspect we'll one day find that our understanding is off in some fundamental way. Much as we observed small problems with Newton's description of the world which eventually lead to Einstein and his various theories.


Well science just asumes the creators didn't leave any bugs in the code :D .
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby AriKT » Fri Oct 22, 2010 11:33 am

Haven't gone through all 27 pages of this thread, but I believe the ability model code has 8 ticks for Consecration instead of 10.

raw.Consecration = (8.*(101.2+0.0338.*player.hsp+0.0338.*player.ap)).*mdf.spdmg.*mdf.HalGro.*mdf.glyphCons.*target.resrdx;
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