Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Chasey » Tue Oct 19, 2010 11:02 am

I have a question, I know I will probably get killed for this but at the heroic instance level or trash mob tanking will http://www.wowhead.com/item=42500/titanium-shield-spike#created-bybe more threat on a shield than the 18 stam? Is vengeance enough to make the 18 stam worth more threat than the 46-67 damage the spike will cause? I doubt I would use the spike on a boss fight but putting this on a trash shield might be nice for threat.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Tue Oct 19, 2010 2:04 pm

If I had to guess, I'd say the shield spike will give you more damage in heroics. In my experience, Vengeance doesn't stack very high in 5-mans.
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Re:

Postby Digren » Tue Oct 19, 2010 3:02 pm

theckhd wrote:Next, let's look at Hit Rating as a primary stat:

Image
HotR graph

The only interesting feature on this plot is the hit rating curve, which nose-dives right at the 8% melee hit cap. While in Wrath, we still saw a moderate benefit from hit above 8%, the combination of 6% spell hit from talents and a significant reduction in the amount of our DPS subject to spell hit has made the benefit over cap essentially zero. So like many DPS classes, hit rating below the cap will be one of our best threat stats, while anything above the cap is wasted.

If you didn't notice already, they're still mucking with this.
http://maintankadin.failsafedesign.com/ ... =viewtopic

Now we get 8% spell hit from talents in beta. Not sure if/when they'll push it live.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Tue Oct 19, 2010 3:15 pm

Interesting, that would mean that we spell hit cap before we reach melee cap. I doubt it will get pushed to live before 4.0.3 though, and even if it did it wouldn't change much (hit still better than STR until melee cap, still worthless above melee cap).
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby towelliee » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:53 pm

Theck my whole ICC tonight is logged thus far. I did some bosses with CS as main HP generator and some with hotr if you wanna see the numbers. This is unglyphed

Just did BQ with hotr gylph
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby jere » Tue Oct 19, 2010 8:22 pm

Theck, I don't know if any of this stuff will be useful for you, but I did some threat testing tonight and posted the results here:
http://www.tankspot.com/showthread.php? ... atch-4.0.1)

Some interesting things:
SoI heal generates threat, but mana gain does not
Consecration has a hidden debuff that provides a flat 12.00 threat before RF in addition to the damage
Heals are still modified by 25% despite the blue post
Ret aura is 2x threat

It's not done, but it was all I had time for tonight.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Kihra » Wed Oct 20, 2010 10:41 am

Forgive me if this is known, but has the effect of haste rating on Censure been factored in? The ret paladin in my guild was saying that Censure's ticks are being affected by your haste rating at the time the Censure is first applied, and that the hastened tick speed persists as long as you don't let the DoT fall off.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby d503 » Wed Oct 20, 2010 11:27 am

Kihra wrote:Forgive me if this is known, but has the effect of haste rating on Censure been factored in? The ret paladin in my guild was saying that Censure's ticks are being affected by your haste rating at the time the Censure is first applied, and that the hastened tick speed persists as long as you don't let the DoT fall off.


theckhd wrote:The third tier consists of Haste, which is far ahead of its comrades Mastery, Spellpower, and Intellect. Haste has seen a significant increase since Wrath due to a combination of Censure haste-scaling and Reckoning. It's low enough that we wouldn't consider it part of the second tier (ages 10 and up!), but it's still a far cry better than SP or Intellect.

Image
HotR graph


From the front page. Haste is not something we'd want to every itemize, and is additionally a bit behind from a Talents perspective (Judgements of the Pure).

TheckHD wrote:
Code: Select all
                           DPS per point
Talent                     Sim  Model   w/Cons
SotP                      43.4   43.4    ---
Hallowed Ground            0.0    0.0   18.0
WotL                     284.4  277.6  272.1
Reckoning                 97.8   97.8    ---
Arbiter of the Light      23.2   22.7    ---
JotP                      30.6   30.6    ---
Crusade                   76.5   74.8    ---
Rule of Law               40.5   39.5    ---
Grand Crusader            53.9   46.7    ---
Sacred Duty              287.3  283.4    ---
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Kihra » Wed Oct 20, 2010 11:58 am

d503 wrote:From the front page. Haste is not something we'd want to every itemize, and is additionally a bit behind from a Talents perspective (Judgements of the Pure).


I wasn't so much concerned with the value of Haste as the value of Censure. Maybe it's considered a bug, but you can (apparently, I haven't tested this myself) pre-pot and have a super hasted Censure going for an entire fight. That would presumably increase the value of Censure somewhat (even if it doesn't increase the value of Haste on gear).
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Wed Oct 20, 2010 1:16 pm

Kihra wrote:
d503 wrote:From the front page. Haste is not something we'd want to every itemize, and is additionally a bit behind from a Talents perspective (Judgements of the Pure).


I wasn't so much concerned with the value of Haste as the value of Censure. Maybe it's considered a bug, but you can (apparently, I haven't tested this myself) pre-pot and have a super hasted Censure going for an entire fight. That would presumably increase the value of Censure somewhat (even if it doesn't increase the value of Haste on gear).

I haven't seen data that confirms this one way or another. I was under the impression that it worked like the new Warlock DoT system, where everything is recalculated any time the DoT is reapplied. This includes Haunt refreshing Corruption, for example, and thus should include melee swings refreshing Censure.

However, as I said, I haven't seen evidence one way or the other. It's certainly a test I'd be interested in seeing performed.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Pallatine » Wed Oct 20, 2010 1:21 pm

theckhd wrote:I haven't seen data that confirms this one way or another. I was under the impression that it worked like the new Warlock DoT system, where everything is recalculated any time the DoT is reapplied. This includes Haunt refreshing Corruption, for example, and thus should include melee swings refreshing Censure.

However, as I said, I haven't seen evidence one way or the other. It's certainly a test I'd be interested in seeing performed.


Not that I have proof to offer, but this interested me. I noticed last night that the tooltip for my Censure updates based on the value of haste I currently have.

I.E. before judging it shows at ticking every 3 seconds, but after judging (I have two points in JotP) it drops to 2.83 seconds. This of course, no way says anything about the damage my censure dot is dealing.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby d503 » Wed Oct 20, 2010 1:35 pm

Pallatine wrote:
theckhd wrote:I haven't seen data that confirms this one way or another. I was under the impression that it worked like the new Warlock DoT system, where everything is recalculated any time the DoT is reapplied. This includes Haunt refreshing Corruption, for example, and thus should include melee swings refreshing Censure.

However, as I said, I haven't seen evidence one way or the other. It's certainly a test I'd be interested in seeing performed.


Not that I have proof to offer, but this interested me. I noticed last night that the tooltip for my Censure updates based on the value of haste I currently have.

I.E. before judging it shows at ticking every 3 seconds, but after judging (I have two points in JotP) it drops to 2.83 seconds. This of course, no way says anything about the damage my censure dot is dealing.


Seems like it wouldn't be consistent with DoT behavior, is likely a bug, and probably will end up getting fixed, should it be properly reported.

In the end it doesn't seem like it would be that much of a DPS/TPS increase. To boot, our threat is fine, so I wouldn't feel forced to min-max a speed pot pre-fight when I could use something for survivability (armor or w/e)...seems like Golemblood Potion could be a better option too...though the longer the fight, the more powerful the speed increase becomes...
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Robbert » Wed Oct 20, 2010 1:53 pm

Hey Theck,

Any chance you could include Quel'Serrar in your weapon comparisons on the first page of posts? I'd guess given the 2.0 speed compared to most tanking weapons it will rank reasonably well for it's item level, but some hard numbers would be nice.

Thanks!
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby AriKT » Wed Oct 20, 2010 2:40 pm

Its fairly easy to guesstimate where a weapon is going to fall in the chart. If you disregard the effect of hit/expertise adding to the TPS, then its just a matter of which weapon has a higher average damage. 245 Quel'Serrar is just under 264 Last Word(but Last Word has the Str Proc). I assume Burnished Quel'Serrar would be just behind 264 Last Word then.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby daiceman » Thu Oct 21, 2010 1:28 am

Just wanting to confirm. using the CS-J-CS-X-CS-ShoR model, if your ShoR misses, is it advantageous to judge again to attempt to turn proc SD? Your initial dps comparison of rotation abilities seems to confirm that this would be a dps increase.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby knaughty » Thu Oct 21, 2010 2:07 am

daiceman wrote:Just wanting to confirm. using the CS-J-CS-X-CS-ShoR model, if your ShoR misses, is it advantageous to judge again to attempt to turn proc SD? Your initial dps comparison of rotation abilities seems to confirm that this would be a dps increase.

My understanding is that you don't fish for SD procs, you just press ShoR till it goes off.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Awyndel » Thu Oct 21, 2010 2:24 am

Perhaps a silly question. But does the rotation simulation press shor again if it misses untill it actually goes off?
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby knaughty » Thu Oct 21, 2010 3:26 am

Awyndel wrote:Perhaps a silly question. But does the rotation simulation press shor again if it misses untill it actually goes off?

The analytical version does, and I believe the sim does now as well.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:26 am

daiceman wrote:Just wanting to confirm. using the CS-J-CS-X-CS-ShoR model, if your ShoR misses, is it advantageous to judge again to attempt to turn proc SD? Your initial dps comparison of rotation abilities seems to confirm that this would be a dps increase.

Not really. Like I said in the rotation comparison:

Theck wrote:Given that there isn't a significant difference between #2 and #10, Sacred Duty prioritization isn't worth bothering with. It causes empty GCDs thanks to ShoR misses that offsets any benefit it might convey. It can help in a few situations with high AS priorities, but those are always sub-optimal anyway.


The data sets show that queue #2 (SD fishing) comes out 9 to 12 DPS ahead of queue #10 (no SD fishing). That's not a statistically significant difference in this simulation though. The DPS output of queue #10 itself varies by 9 DPS between the two data sets. In my estimation, anything less than 15-20 DPS in this simulation can be considered "noise."

Also keep in mind that this sim is "perfect" - i.e. no latency, it doesn't make mistakes (i.e. accidentally casting the wrong spell when something better is available), and so on. From personal experience, I am much more consistent when I have a stable rotation to follow. Fishing for SD procs will throw you off of the stable rotation, which increases the likelihood that you'll make a mistake. So in practice, it's entirely possible that SD prioritization will actually decrease your DPS just due to that, even if the ~10 DPS improvement is real and not noise.

There's one caveat here, which is that you can fill some of the empty GCDs created with Cons, which will be a slight DPS increase. However, even if you were lucky enough to fill all 43 of the empty GCDs with a 10k damage Consecration, we're still talking about 430k/(30k*1.5)= 10 DPS.

Awyndel wrote:Perhaps a silly question. But does the rotation simulation press shor again if it misses untill it actually goes off?

Yes, if ShoR is the highest thing in the queue. The SD prioritization schemes will occasionally push back ShoR if it misses and the conditions are right (Judgement available, SD not active). That's one of the reasons that SD prioritization isn't as good as it seems - it gives you a higher chance to crit with ShoR, but pushes ShoR and CS back, and creates empty GCDs.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:45 am

Robbert wrote:Any chance you could include Quel'Serrar in your weapon comparisons on the first page of posts? I'd guess given the 2.0 speed compared to most tanking weapons it will rank reasonably well for it's item level, but some hard numbers would be nice.


Yeah, I'll try and remember to include it in the next update. If I forget, feel free to harass me until I fix it.

I'm also planning on incorporating Awyndel's suggestion of plotting weapon DPS assuming one is already hit-capped and expertise soft-capped.

Simming out AoE rotations and sub-20% rotations are also on the list of high priority things to do.

Those, along with updates of all of the simulation results to incorporating the new buffs we got a-la Ret, are all waiting on this data set:

theckhd wrote:With all of the Ret changes (hopefully) finished now, I want to do a sanity check on the code to make sure we haven't missed anything. In particular, I have suspicions that Censure was buffed a little, but there may be other things we missed.

Note that I need this information from Live servers, not from beta

What I need: Parses of all of our abilities at several AP/SP values. This includes Exorcism, HoWrath, each Seal/Judgement combo, etc.
How I need it:
  1. Find an isolated dummy with no debuffs. Multiple dummies are fine for HammerNova and Holy Wrath, as long as you remain in the same place and consistently hit the same number of dummies.
  2. Equip a particular gear set, ideally one with no procs to speak of and no set bonuses.
  3. Record and upload a parse containing 50+ casts of each ability, the more the better.
  4. Link the parse here along with all of the following information (any parses that don't include this information are effectively useless to me):
    • AP
    • SP
    • Weapon tooltip damage (i.e. x-y)
    • Weapon tooltip speed (i.e. 2.6)
    • Weapon Name (so I can double-check that you haven't given me paper doll values)
    • Talent Spec
    • Glyphs
    • Dummy level
  5. Repeat this process for several gear sets with widely varying AP/SP. Ideally I'd like one with low AP/SP, one with high AP / low SP, and one with low AP / high SP. Even better if you can equip items such that one of the stats is the same between parses (i.e. equip a bunch of INT gear to raise SP without changing AP at all).



That said, even if I had that data set, I wouldn't have had time to get it done this week. I have a couple deadlines looming and just had another small project* dropped on me this week, so I've been absolutely swamped at work. I'm hoping that if I work through the weekend, I'll be able to finish all of my real work and all of the code updates I want to finish. I'm visiting family this weekend anyway, so I won't have WoW as a distraction (in fact, I've been busy enough that I haven't logged into WoW since Sunday night, which is probably the first time this has happened in well over a year).

*If anyone has good advice/lecture notes/visuals for teaching entanglement and Bell's inequality to first-year undergraduate non-science majors (yes, you read that right), it would help me a lot.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Awyndel » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:13 am

theckhd wrote:That said, even if I had that data set, I wouldn't have had time to get it done this week. I have a couple deadlines looming and just had another small project* dropped on me this week, so I've been absolutely swamped at work. I'm hoping that if I work through the weekend, I'll be able to finish all of my real work and all of the code updates I want to finish. I'm visiting family this weekend anyway, so I won't have WoW as a distraction (in fact, I've been busy enough that I haven't logged into WoW since Sunday night, which is probably the first time this has happened in well over a year).

*If anyone has good advice/lecture notes/visuals for teaching entanglement and Bell's inequality to first-year undergraduate non-science majors (yes, you read that right), it would help me a lot.


Can't help you there I'm afraid :P .

However, us tankadins have untill about halfway through december to get our stuff together, and even then we have some time to finetune throughout the first tier. I realise we ask a lot of questions now, and we want all the answers now. But the truth is it doesn't really matter for current content does it now. So take your time man.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby theckhd » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:44 am

Rabs wrote:
theckhd wrote:
sculder wrote:Anyone tested it since 4.0? I don't think they changed it again, but you never know...

I heard that they nerfed it again in 4.0.1 because it was too powerful for certain classes. Apparently they added an internal cooldown of some sort? I haven't had time to seek out the exact details yet.

Not sure if this helps you figure it out at all, but here we go:
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/snd1 ... details/0/
Half hour of auto-attacking. Last Word Heroic enchanted with Mongoose, 28 haste rating, 1.79 swing timer.


I'm not sure about that log. You saw 27 procs in 1019 swings, or a 2.65% proc chance. For a 1 PPM enchant and a 1.79 swing timer, you'd expect 2.98%, which is reasonably close to what you observed. In your parse, you never refresh the buff - it always falls off before the net application. The minimum time between the buff falling off and being recast is 6.315 seconds, for a total time difference between buff casts of 21.315 seconds.

In 15 seconds, you'd have N=8 chances to refresh the buff with a 1.79 swing speed. If the proc chance p=0.0298, the chance that you do not get another proc in N swings is (1-p)^N, or 78.5%. That means you should see a 21.5% uptime, a little lower than the 22.3% you see in your log.

I'm a little rusty on whether this also means you should see the proc refresh itself 21.5% of the time - I think it's more complicated than that, but I might be overthinking it. I don't have time right now to go refresh my memory of conditional probabilities.

So it's still possible that they implemented a ~20 second internal cooldown on the proc, which could explain the small difference in the observed and theoretical proc chance as well as the fact that it's never refreshed.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Rabs » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:47 am

^ Would me auto-attacking with mongoose for an hour or so help at all or be a waste of my time?

theckhd wrote:What I need: Parses of all of our abilities at several AP/SP values. This includes Exorcism, HoWrath, each Seal/Judgement combo, etc.


Here's a start:
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/us2c89or3w24j2e4/

Attack Power: 3980
Spell Power: 1216
Weapon Damage: 296-551
Weapon Speed: 1.60
Weapon Name: Mithrios, Bronzebeard's Legacy (Heroic)
Spec: http://wowtal.com/#k=-kfF-NSL.a6d.paladin.
Glyphs: Seal of Truth, Shield of Righteousness, Judgement

Dummy Level: Heroic Training dummy (Level 83). AS & HotR hitting an Expert Training dummy as well, Holy Wrath hitting 2 Expert Training Dummies
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Liyalai » Fri Oct 22, 2010 2:04 am

Would like to help out, however I've no idea how to do/upload logs. Is there a guide somewhere or is it stupidly easy enough not to need one?
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Re: Theck's MATLAB thread - Cataclysm/4.x

Postby Rabs » Fri Oct 22, 2010 4:37 am

Liyalai wrote:Would like to help out, however I've no idea how to do/upload logs. Is there a guide somewhere or is it stupidly easy enough not to need one?


Here's a quick rundown on how to do it:
http://www.worldoflogs.com/help/
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