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Icecrown Radiance

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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Meloree » Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:11 pm

Snake-Aes wrote:# Defense: 572
# Dodge: 27.26%
# Parry: 21.74%
# Block: 11.88%


Assuming no DR, he'd have 11,88% miss, so that sums up to 72,76%, 102,76% with holy shield. Wouldn't kings+horn of winter only add another 3%? I've never calculated the precise number, but my avoidance with every possible agi buff never differed from my unbuffed avoidance by a full 4%. He'd be at 4% wasted block, which is quite minor, and we're all back at that "just like warriors" blur, especially considering that, we will *still* be taking huge amounts of damage, against which avoidance is simply that more reliable.


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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Snake-Aes » Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:19 pm

That's still only a 2% difference from the set mentioned above, but i'm not considering the proc, which can not be relied on in the first place if your goal is to cap block rating again.
Otherwise i think it'll average as a bit less than your estimate.

And in those cases i'm still looking at the "avoidance > block" setting anyway. Really, even with the block rating cap, we need a naxx-type of damage for block to be better than avoidance against a boss. We won't get that.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Meloree » Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:27 pm

Snake-Aes wrote:Really, even with the block rating cap, we need a naxx-type of damage for block to be better than avoidance against a boss. We won't get that.


Absolutely. Bosses are going to be hitting for north of 25k, block will be a drop in the bucket. I don't think chasing the cap is going to be a valuable use of itemization.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Fridmarr » Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:30 pm

Meloree wrote:
Snake-Aes wrote:Really, even with the block rating cap, we need a naxx-type of damage for block to be better than avoidance against a boss. We won't get that.


Absolutely. Bosses are going to be hitting for north of 25k, block will be a drop in the bucket. I don't think chasing the cap is going to be a valuable use of itemization.

Well at 2500 BV, that's 5000 effective health against two hits. I can see where that could push you over a threshold if you can reach it without otherwise nerfing yourself.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Wrathy » Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:38 pm

Fridmarr wrote:Well at 2500 BV, that's 5000 effective health against two hits. I can see where that could push you over a threshold if you can reach it without otherwise nerfing yourself.


I think what he is saying, and it is difficult to say with out seeing what our gear is going to look like in ICC, is that you are wasting itemization to try to guarantee a block. You are better off ensuring that you can always survive two hits via stam, and then the 2.5k block that you get is just a bonus.

The way I look at it is we will be extremely lucky to be block capped in Icecrown, even by the end of it. Considering the fact that Chill of the Throne is going to immediately drop you 20% d/b/p/m, you have to make that up. The only way we have been making it up as of now is with our gimmick set. To walk into icecrown with 35k hp raid buffed with 4k block value is just not gonna cut it.

I agree that the block value as a whole will still be beneficial, but I would rather take pure avoidance stats, than try to go back to gearing to unhittable via SBV or loads of defense.

Now in an aside, I would love to see the day where we can tank all four anub adds with full T10 hard mode gear because its so saturated with avoidance we can toss in some SBR and get to unhittable.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Fridmarr » Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:42 pm

Wrathy wrote:
Fridmarr wrote:Well at 2500 BV, that's 5000 effective health against two hits. I can see where that could push you over a threshold if you can reach it without otherwise nerfing yourself.


I think what he is saying, and it is difficult to say with out seeing what our gear is going to look like in ICC, is that you are wasting itemization to try to guarantee a block. You are better off ensuring that you can always survive two hits via stam, and then the 2.5k block that you get is just a bonus.

The way I look at it is we will be extremely lucky to be block capped in Icecrown, even by the end of it. Considering the fact that Chill of the Throne is going to immediately drop you 20% d/b/p/m, you have to make that up. The only way we have been making it up as of now is with our gimmick set. To walk into icecrown with 35k hp raid buffed with 4k block value is just not gonna cut it.

I agree that the block value as a whole will still be beneficial, but I would rather take pure avoidance stats, than try to go back to gearing to unhittable via SBV or loads of defense.

Now in an aside, I would love to see the day where we can tank all four anub adds with full T10 hard mode gear because its so saturated with avoidance we can toss in some SBR and get to unhittable.
Well yes, that's why I said without otherwise nerfing yourself. You probably won't be able to do it day one, but maybe with some T10 it'll be reachable.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Varuk » Fri Oct 30, 2009 3:54 pm

Snake-Aes wrote:That's still only a 2% difference from the set mentioned above, but i'm not considering the proc, which can not be relied on in the first place if your goal is to cap block rating again.
Otherwise i think it'll average as a bit less than your estimate.

And in those cases i'm still looking at the "avoidance > block" setting anyway. Really, even with the block rating cap, we need a naxx-type of damage for block to be better than avoidance against a boss. We won't get that.
If it's 4% after Kings / Totem / GotW, the Libram is another 2.4%, and insect swarm is another 3%. Therefore, using your numbers, ignoring mongoose, it'd be 9.4%. The addition from Kings / Totem / GotW is closer to 3%, though, but still, even ignoring mongoose it puts it exactly where I said: 8.5%.

Re: "Naxxramas levels of damage"
Avoidance is still most likely going to mitigate more damage than block stats. I will definitely give you that. But the thing is, avoidance is not an EH stats, while SBV easily can be. All it would take is 3 pieces of SBR gear and we'll be at the cap again. If our predictions about EH being the single most important stat in the next patch are correct, then honestly SBV will be the way to go -- 2/3rd to 3/4ths as much mitigation as avoidance, plus EH, plus threat until soft cap. If that isn't a sweet package then I don't know what is. (Of course, this is assuming the gear support for that playstyle exists. It probably won't, if TotGC is any example.)

Also, just to clear this up, I'm not advocating wearing old gear to get block cap again. Far from it, I'm advocating that if new gear includes both shield oriented pieces and avoidance oriented pieces that Icecrown Radiance puts urge on us to seriously consider the shield oriented pieces. I'm absolutely not advocating trying to tank ICC with your Anub adds suit on.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Kelaan » Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:42 pm

I'm struggling with why to bother wearing dodge rating at all, now. I don't understand the assertion that Radiance doesn't change anything.

On the one hand, it's -20% avoidance... doesnt really matter where it's from. I have ~24% dodge now, so (as someone said) I'll have ~4% in Icecrown. Any NEW dodge rating is just as effective. But, on the other, if I were (somehow) able to replace my dodge rating with Something Else (Block Rating, BV, expertise, hit, strength, stamina...), would it be worth it?

If we could do it, I think it'd be good to drop dodge rating in favor of more stam/threat stats/parry/bv/etc. However, I don't think it's easy to gear for zero dodge rating at the moment, and I wouldnt be able to add substantially more parry rating or stamina (or armor) in its place, right? Is the reason not to care about this that the itemization isn't there?
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Wrathy » Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:48 pm

Meyrinn wrote:
Wrathy wrote: With the current information we have, your gearing philosophies and methodology will not change with Chill of the Throne, only your avoidance in the raid zone will.


You're implying that your gearing philosophy is the same at 40% avoidance as it is at 60% avoidance?


A bit late on this one, but yes, I am implying that. The Chill of the Throne is the first thing that made me think about changing my gearing philosophy. Does chill of the throne make me think that the inherent stats on a piece of gear have a different value now?

No.

Does chill of the throne change my fundamental thoughts on how to survive during progression content?

Yes. This is the fundamental reason that I will stop "enhancing" my gear with well rounded stats, and lean towards a stamina build. In the end, my gearing philosophy will lean towards this, barring an statistical analysis that says that I can drop 4k stamina for some more avoidance. This is where I stipulate that we will not know more until we see the gear and the encounters first hand, however the fact of the matter remains that if I find that with my healers and my gear, than I am never below 40-50% hp, I will step back up on that soap box and fight for a more balanced set.

Only time will tell.


As for the question regarding my gearing in Naxx. I have used stamina gems in blue sockets, hybrids in red and yellow, since the day I picked up my first piece of T7.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Kelaan » Fri Oct 30, 2009 5:16 pm

Digren wrote:
theckhd wrote:
Nadir wrote:the relative values will stay constant as long as you have more than 20% raid buffed dodge.

The "value" of dodge compared to parry is constant if you have more than 20% dodge raid-buffed...
So the 'interesting question' is this: At what amount of parry rating do the higher DR coefficients on parry make stacking dodge from below 20% to above 20% worth doing?


Yes indeed, this was my first thought. Bear with me...

1. Drop all agility and dodge gems and enchants. Replace all with pure stamina or armor. Replace gear that provides dodge with gear that provides parry wherever possible, or expertise. Drop Anticipation. ...
2. Even with fixed raid buffs (kings, motw, etc.) a tank's raw dodge would be what? - 10%?
3. As you have considered, a tank in this case would have to stack an awfully lot of new dodge to get past the fact that the first 10% added would have absolutely no benefit. This makes the effective returns on dodge insanely low, because, for example, 850 dodge rating (a number I made up) would be required to go from 0% dodge to 2% dodge. Sure, only +100 dodge rating (another made up number) would go from 2% dodge to 7% dodge, but when viewed in its entirety 950 dodge rating still only nets 7% dodge, again reflecting very low total returns.

4. The relative value of parry is thus increased, as is the relative value defense (via miss and parry) and expertise (via reduced parry gib).

5. If someone found a gear set that allowed a tank to virtually ignore the Icecrown Radiance effect through stacking of alternative stats, I would expect Blizzard to nerf it quickly. They just don't like people finding crafty ways to use funny gear and funny specs to avoid a game mechanic.


Thanks, Digren, that was exactly what I was thinking about also. If you don't abandon dodging completely, the effect on gearing is ... well, doesn't seem so bad. But if you do, it becomes much more interesting about what you can get from it. I'll have to sit down this weekend and look at waht Rawr says...
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby theckhd » Fri Oct 30, 2009 7:02 pm

Digren wrote:Sorry Theck, I'm not sure what Ddr means. But your analysis seems to be considering only dodge affected by diminishing returns. Did you include the option to drop anticipation in favor of some other talent, such as going into both ret and holy for the optional defensive talents, or going deeper into ret for threat talents? Dropping anticipation increases the post-DR percent dodge required from dodge rating and agility by a lot, which makes the minimum dodge rating required on a crossover gear set to go up a lot.

Ddr was the post-DR dodge percentage that you get from D pre-DR dodge percentage. I think I put formulas in the post before that where I went through the math.

I didn't consider dropping anticipation, though that would push us towards the first case where it took quite a lot of rating before dodge became viable again. I think the real problem with this strategy is that to build a set with nearly 0 dodge and lots of parry, you'll have to wear some pretty exotic pieces and lose a lot of EH overall, which is not likely to be worth the tradeoff.

Meloree wrote:I could be wrong, Theck, but I think you need to look at the spike damage prevention as a relative reduction, rather than an absolute one, for the same reason that we look at relative reduction for armor, and relative reduction in damage taken for avoidance.

50-51%: chance of 2hit string goes from 25% to 24.01%, a 0.99% reduction in chance to be hit, but a 4% relative reduction.
70-71%: chance of 2hit string goes from 9% to 8.41%, a 0.6% reduction in absolute chance for the event, but 6.5% relative reduction.

The reason I think it's important to look at it like this is that at avoidance levels like 50%, 3 hit strings aren't spikes, they're normal and expected throughput damage that you must gear to survive. In other words, for a given level of avoidance, you have a given level of expected spike intake, how much does that improve with 1% more avoidance? It improves much more moving from 70-71% than it does moving from 50-51%.

But then again, I've never claimed to have high-quality math-fu, so I may be looking at that wrong.

I think you could look at it either way, actually. Relative reduction certainly makes a lot of sense for sustained damage intake calculations, because you don't generally care about how many of the boss's attacks you avoid, just the reduction in total damage taken. In terms of relative reduction of spike events, you'd see a similar change to that with damage reduction, so in that sense the comparison I made wasn't entirely fair.

On the other hand, I'm not sure relative reduction is the most pertinent statistic when you're looking at individual events. Generally what you'd care about is the number of spike events you'd take over the course of a fight, or the absolute chance, because that's what you and your healers have to watch out for and react to. The frequency of events is going to scale like (potential_event_rate)*(1-a)^N.

You can make several (admittedly artificial) benchmarks out of this too. For example, if I reduce the absolute chance of a 4-spike enough so that I only have one event every 1 minute, I can now cover it with my own bubblewall and AD. If I push it low enough to drop to one event every 2 minutes, I can cover it with just bubblewall, giving me a back-up "oh-shit" AD for other things. If it's going to happen every 30 seconds, on average, I need to have healers watching out for me and ready to blow cooldowns in a coordinated fashion.


Another example: let's say you take 30 possible sequences of two attacks per minute. At 30% avoidance, you have a 34% chance to take a 3-spike, or 10.2 total events in that minute for a frequency of one every 5.88 seconds. At 40% avoidance, this drops to 22% chance, or 6.6 events, one every 9.1 seconds. At 50% aviodance, this drops to 12.5% chance, 3.75 events, or one every 16 seconds. The time between events is the inverse of the frequency, not the relative reduction.

Now let's say you either scale up the avoidance, or look at higher-N event strings, so that you're getting one event every 5 minutes. I can increase avoidance to the point that I get one every 6 minutes, which gives me a nice relative buff (15%), but is fairly meaningless for a 5-minute fight, as I'll still probably only see one event in that time span.


So yes, the relative reduction in the number of spike events is greater as you get more avoidance. But once you've gotten below a certain threshold, it doesn't matter that the relative reduction is large, since you're still going to be in the ballpark of one event per fight. I'm not sure which is necessarily going to be the most pertinent metric to look at.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Meloree » Fri Oct 30, 2009 11:31 pm

theckhd wrote:I think you could look at it either way, actually. Relative reduction certainly makes a lot of sense for sustained damage intake calculations, because you don't generally care about how many of the boss's attacks you avoid, just the reduction in total damage taken. In terms of relative reduction of spike events, you'd see a similar change to that with damage reduction, so in that sense the comparison I made wasn't entirely fair.


I'd still argue that relative reduction is what you and your healers see. With 50% avoidance, 3-hits isn't really a spike, it's something that's going to happen on a regular basis, and the healing plan had better take it into account, but you'll know every time it happens, and some of those times you may reach for a cooldown depending on what else is happenning. That said, I find it difficult to credit that any melee events on their own, absent another event, will ever count as a spike. With 30k hits on a 2 second timer, your healing plan is going to call for on the order of 10k hps on tanks to cover throughput damage. Two attacks manage to connect, you're down 20k hp at the time of the 3rd one hitting, and your healers have ramped up a bigger heal to cover the delta. If the third hit connects, you're topped off, and the spike is over. If it misses, you're topped off with lots of overheal. We already have an example of a boss that can hit for up to 40k, with other minor stuff going on, and nobody ever mentions him as being dangerous. I refer, of course, to Dreadscale while enraged (and mobile).

I don't know, of course, what Icecrown is going to bring, but if 3-hit strings are going to cause healer stress while at 50% avoidance, that boss is going to be one hell of a big hitter. More likely, there will be "a bunch of other things happenning" which, in the past, has tended to reduce the value of avoidance as a spike prevention measure, because it's reduced the "N" involved down to 2 or even one, a low enough number that you just had to assume it was going to hit anyway.

theckhd wrote:Another example: let's say you take 30 possible sequences of two attacks per minute. At 30% avoidance, you have a 34% chance to take a 3-spike, or 10.2 total events in that minute for a frequency of one every 5.88 seconds. At 40% avoidance, this drops to 22% chance, or 6.6 events, one every 9.1 seconds. At 50% aviodance, this drops to 12.5% chance, 3.75 events, or one every 16 seconds. The time between events is the inverse of the frequency, not the relative reduction.


6.6/10.2 is 64%. 3.75/6.6 is 57%. Avoidance has continued to grow more powerful with more of it in this measure. The frequency of events has been reduced more by going from 40-50% than by going from 30-40%.

You're also, in this analysis, trusting the RNG to provide the spikes at predictable time intervals. Instinctively, a 5 minute fight is not a long enough timeframe to not be horribly skewed by random whacky stuff. If the expected time of dangerous event is every minute, but the actual occurance is random, and not known until midway through the event, I'm just as likely to blow DP on a non-dangerous 2-hit string, cheat death on the first "real" n-hit string, and be totally unprepared for the 2nd one.

To me, 3 hit strings are something that you always include in the healing plan. Even at 70% avoidance, they happen. Healers ramp up when 2 in a row connect. Once they've ramped up, it doesn't really matter if it's a 12-hit string, they're covering the throughput damage as "every hit lands until we feel comfortable ramping down again", and you cover with cooldowns if/when movement coincides with spike. If you look at n-hit strings like that, it's definitely the relative reduction that gets noticed, not the absolute value.

Like I said, I don't have the math-fu here, I know I'm handwaving at some of this, but I'm kind of hoping the point gets across. I can generally follow the math that goes on, even when I can't reproduce it, and thus far, I don't find the argument that the value avoidance for reducing spikes increases with Icewell Radiance to be particularily compelling. Perhaps I'm mistaken... or just stubborn.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Thels » Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:05 am

Meloree wrote:A couple of posts in this thread have suggested that this doesn't change our gearing strategy by much (if at all), but I'm going to go ahead and argue that it's basically killed any value for stacking avoidance through gemming/gearing, and made our gearing strategy even more of a non-choice for effective health.

[snip]

It seems to me that unless there's something massively different about boss design in IC, Blizzard has effectively killed avoidance gemming/enchanting. You'll take what you get on gear, and mindlessly stuff 30 stam gems into everything. And the choice of gear will come down to "what has more stam and armor on it? Other stats are nice and all, but they don't actually matter."


Word. I'm currently picking up 9 and 12 stamina socket bonuses, if they only cost one yellow or red gem. When IC hits, that'll probably be 12 stamina socket bonuses only.

Likewise, BV just lost massive value as well. While the avoidance ignoring tanks might not have been block capped anyhow, they were close enough to make block value quite reliable. With IC radiance, there's a good 20% chance that you will receive a full hit regardless.

I was contemplating putting BV on my ToC25 shield the moment I got the ToC10 or Ulduar socketable shield, for an armor and a mitigation shield, but I guess I'll stick to stamina.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Thels » Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:29 am

theckhd wrote:
Digren wrote:Sorry Theck, I'm not sure what Ddr means. But your analysis seems to be considering only dodge affected by diminishing returns. Did you include the option to drop anticipation in favor of some other talent, such as going into both ret and holy for the optional defensive talents, or going deeper into ret for threat talents? Dropping anticipation increases the post-DR percent dodge required from dodge rating and agility by a lot, which makes the minimum dodge rating required on a crossover gear set to go up a lot.

Ddr was the post-DR dodge percentage that you get from D pre-DR dodge percentage. I think I put formulas in the post before that where I went through the math.

I didn't consider dropping anticipation, though that would push us towards the first case where it took quite a lot of rating before dodge became viable again. I think the real problem with this strategy is that to build a set with nearly 0 dodge and lots of parry, you'll have to wear some pretty exotic pieces and lose a lot of EH overall, which is not likely to be worth the tradeoff.


How exactly could we skip Avoidance? We're already using fillers to reach Sacred Duty and 1HWS. Skipping Avoidance means we gotta burn 8 talent points in subpar talents instead of 3. It does not mean we can shift those to Holy or Retri talents.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Digren » Sat Oct 31, 2009 7:38 am

Thels wrote:
theckhd wrote:
Digren wrote:Sorry Theck, I'm not sure what Ddr means. But your analysis seems to be considering only dodge affected by diminishing returns. Did you include the option to drop anticipation in favor of some other talent, such as going into both ret and holy for the optional defensive talents, or going deeper into ret for threat talents? Dropping anticipation increases the post-DR percent dodge required from dodge rating and agility by a lot, which makes the minimum dodge rating required on a crossover gear set to go up a lot.

Ddr was the post-DR dodge percentage that you get from D pre-DR dodge percentage. I think I put formulas in the post before that where I went through the math.

I didn't consider dropping anticipation, though that would push us towards the first case where it took quite a lot of rating before dodge became viable again. I think the real problem with this strategy is that to build a set with nearly 0 dodge and lots of parry, you'll have to wear some pretty exotic pieces and lose a lot of EH overall, which is not likely to be worth the tradeoff.


How exactly could we skip Avoidance? We're already using fillers to reach Sacred Duty and 1HWS. Skipping Avoidance means we gotta burn 8 talent points in subpar talents instead of 3. It does not mean we can shift those to Holy or Retri talents.

Ahh very true, and my mistake for forgetting that.

Also, we would have to find gear with very low dodge rating but high other stats. I can think of pieces like the Bulwark of the Royal Guard, which is about as good for effective health as a Crystal Plated Vanguard, but has no dodge rating. Or taking Bracers of the Shieldmaiden over Saronite Swordbreakers for wrist gear. But, there honestly aren't enough pieces like that for all slots to make a viable low-dodge rating set. Which comes back to my longstanding complaint that Blizzard doesn't provide enough variety in gearing options.*

* In EQ I always felt like I could go to any one of a half dozen places and get a different but valuable upgrade for any one slot. There were so many more encounters at each challenge level, and each had a larger item drop pool. While things like Onyxia do provide needed variability now, all too often Blizzard forces us into cookie cutter gear with either 1x tier piece or 1x alt piece for every slot, with little difference between them.
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