Icecrown Radiance

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Barathorn » Fri Oct 30, 2009 11:54 am

I think what will be will be for Icecrown and there is really no point finger pointing at anyone at this moment in time, it achieves precisely nothing other than making you look a dogs arse. In the style of a telegram, for those of you making yourself look like a dogs arse. Stop. :wink:

Our job collectively as a community is to work out how best to face the challenges ahead in raiding Icecrown, from a casual 10 man guild through to a cutting edge 25 man guild's perspective. That is why we all came here in the first place right? To learn and better ourselves. I look forward to reading more about this change from the like of theckhd, jonesy, Wrathy, Meloree and the other esteemed posters on this forum. Hopefully as a community we can work together again as we always do toward a common goal.

Continue the good work please. Some of us do need to have things explained to use irrespective of the position we may hold ingame or on this forum. It is easier to find this information here than anywhere else. This makes Bara a happy panda.

Go go Theorycrafters. Bolvar's redemption is in your hands.

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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Meloree » Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:07 pm

theckhd wrote:The value of avoidance for reducing spike damage events (i.e. N consecutive hits) is noticeably increased, by more than a factor of 2 for N=2 (0.49% per point at 60% avoidance compared to 1.1% per point at 40% avoidance), and even higher for N>2


I could be wrong, Theck, but I think you need to look at the spike damage prevention as a relative reduction, rather than an absolute one, for the same reason that we look at relative reduction for armor, and relative reduction in damage taken for avoidance.

50-51%: chance of 2hit string goes from 25% to 24.01%, a 0.99% reduction in chance to be hit, but a 4% relative reduction.
70-71%: chance of 2hit string goes from 9% to 8.41%, a 0.6% reduction in absolute chance for the event, but 6.5% relative reduction.

The reason I think it's important to look at it like this is that at avoidance levels like 50%, 3 hit strings aren't spikes, they're normal and expected throughput damage that you must gear to survive. In other words, for a given level of avoidance, you have a given level of expected spike intake, how much does that improve with 1% more avoidance? It improves much more moving from 70-71% than it does moving from 50-51%.

But then again, I've never claimed to have high-quality math-fu, so I may be looking at that wrong.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Rachmaninoff » Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:14 pm

could this have a positive effect for bladeward? ie since we have less dodge are more parry, we are more likely to parry with bladeward? I can't think of what exactly it does and I'm at wor
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Njall » Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:16 pm

Barathorn wrote:
Go go Theorycrafters. Bolvar's redemption is in your hands.

Barathorn


Hear hear. We need our hero back. (shuffles feet and then adds) Um, er, is it okay if we want to look like spacegoat arse?

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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Wrathy » Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:26 pm

Rachmaninoff wrote:could this have a positive effect for bladeward? ie since we have less dodge are more parry, we are more likely to parry with bladeward? I can't think of what exactly it does and I'm at wor


Really it is my understanding that based on the way that Chill of the Throne works, as it is applied post DR to the dodge percentage, blade ward would have no change in effectiveness. The whole point is that the diminishing returns calculations / equations do not change. We are still suffering massive diminishing returns when our dodge is at 8% because its really at 28% with respect to the DR calculation.

With that being said, the 1.88 to 1 ratio still will apply as usual, resulting in no change to the effectiveness of blade ward. You can still do you calculation in Dalaran and get the same answer as if you did it in Icecrown Citadel (the difference being that you would have to add 20% to the dodge part of the calc).

This has been stated a few times through out the thread, but I know it is hard to catch up when a threat gets this long with in a day, so I will reiterate it:

With the current information we have, your gearing philosophies and methodology will not change with Chill of the Throne, only your avoidance in the raid zone will.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Varuk » Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:37 pm

@Theck

Thank you for doing that evaluation. I agree that my conclusion was incomplete, and I shouldn't have tried to insinuate that it wasn't. But, you've shown that my premise is correct: The value of avoidance has changed, and to post RED, BOLD, OVERSIZED, ALL-CAPS STATEMENTS to the contrary is still utter crap. The stat has changed. It is better at some things, worse at others. This is something that should be theorycrafted, like you just did, not hand-waved like almost every poster in the first half of this thread did.

Icecrown Radiance does effect the value of avoidance in ways that aren't immediately obvious. It doesn't take a MATLAB analysis to see that (although it probably does take one to show what effects it does have).

@Snake-Aes

I apologize for calling you out; you weren't the only one to post that, and re-reading the thread it wasn't actually you who did the red-bold-oversized-all caps statement, it was someone altering your quote.

TL;DR: "same shit lower numbers" =! "same shit"
Last edited by Varuk on Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Snake-Aes » Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:44 pm

No, I really did use RED BOLD OVERSIZED CAPPED statements, but it was still within the restrictions of gearing purposes, as reinforced by Theckhd.
Also used eye-searing colors at a near point too.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Rachmaninoff » Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:45 pm

Wrathy wrote:
Rachmaninoff wrote:could this have a positive effect for bladeward? ie since we have less dodge are more parry, we are more likely to parry with bladeward? I can't think of what exactly it does and I'm at wor


Really it is my understanding that based on the way that Chill of the Throne works, as it is applied post DR to the dodge percentage, blade ward would have no change in effectiveness. The whole point is that the diminishing returns calculations / equations do not change. We are still suffering massive diminishing returns when our dodge is at 8% because its really at 28% with respect to the DR calculation.

With that being said, the 1.88 to 1 ratio still will apply as usual, resulting in no change to the effectiveness of blade ward. You can still do you calculation in Dalaran and get the same answer as if you did it in Icecrown Citadel (the difference being that you would have to add 20% to the dodge part of the calc).

This has been stated a few times through out the thread, but I know it is hard to catch up when a threat gets this long with in a day, so I will reiterate it:

With the current information we have, your gearing philosophies and methodology will not change with Chill of the Throne, only your avoidance in the raid zone will.


I'm not questioning DR, even though we do have higher DR our dodge is still going to be significantly lower than our parry... parry will be our highest avoidance stat, will this help with the procs of bladeward?
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Snake-Aes » Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:50 pm

Rachmaninoff wrote:I'm not questioning DR, even though we do have higher DR our dodge is still going to be significantly lower than our parry... parry will be our highest avoidance stat, will this help with the procs of bladeward?

No, because bladeward is tied exclusively to parry. It procs from your attacks(nothing to do with avoidance), and it de-procs from parrying. Your chance to parry will not change with Icecrown Radiance, thus your bladeward will not be changed.
Unless you're sporting 102% or more dodge+parry, at such a point ghostcrawler will pop out of your monitor and slap you with a snowcone.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Varuk » Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:56 pm

Snake-Aes wrote:No, I really did use RED BOLD OVERSIZED CAPPED statements, but it was still within the restrictions of gearing purposes, as reinforced by Theckhd.
Also used eye-searing colors at a near point too.
But how can you make that statement? Where is your theorycrafting? Your support? You aren't showing any.

Icecrown Radiance changes the value of avoidance stats. This could potentially change our gearing strategies. To say that "it didn't happen in Sunwell, so it won't happen now" is completely irrelevant; this is not a year and a half ago. So many things have changed it isn't funny. For one, shield stats are a LOT more competitive now than they were then, and it's possible that with this change they could outpace avoidance stats.

In the end, we don't know how or even if this is going to affect our gearing strategies. It might not. But it is something that should be theorycrafted, NOT handwaved like you're doing.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Zargon » Fri Oct 30, 2009 1:00 pm

Snake-Aes wrote:ghostcrawler will pop out of your monitor and slap you with a snowcone.


Thanks for that. The thought of a crab popping out of a computer monitor and slapping someone silly with a snowcone just made me laugh hard enough to shed a couple tears.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Awyndel » Fri Oct 30, 2009 1:03 pm

Ofc avoidance will be uber against spike damage now, but the point is, spike damage WILL come through, even more so then before. So you better have that backup in place. So unless your healers are going oom and you can't spare any dps going offspec to healer, i'd say get more EH. Specially armor is going to be very interesting, as it gives EH AND saves mana.

Putting this into perspective for chosing itemization, I have one question. This has me wondering about the items with def dodge/parry and BV. Are they going to be more interesting now then the full avoidance pieces? They give more EH and save mana, and if we get hit more often, the EH value of Bv gets multiplied as well. Avoidance is unreliable now anyway. Then again I don't know how much of a statement unreliable is, depends on what you view as linear or relative. We ARE going to get hit a lot though.

If we get more information about the incoming hit sizes, maybe we can say more about how BV will relate to avoidance for picking items.
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Snake-Aes » Fri Oct 30, 2009 1:07 pm

Varuk wrote:
Snake-Aes wrote:No, I really did use RED BOLD OVERSIZED CAPPED statements, but it was still within the restrictions of gearing purposes, as reinforced by Theckhd.
Also used eye-searing colors at a near point too.
But how can you make that statement? Where is your theorycrafting? Your support? You aren't showing any.

Icecrown Radiance changes the value of avoidance stats. This could potentially change our gearing strategies. To say that "it didn't happen in Sunwell, so it won't happen now" is completely irrelevant; this is not a year and a half ago. So many things have changed it isn't funny. For one, shield stats are a LOT more competitive now than they were then, and it's possible that with this change they could outpace avoidance stats.

In the end, we don't know how or even if this is going to affect our gearing strategies. It might not. But it is something that should be theorycrafted, NOT handwaved like you're doing.

It sounds wrong because you took it out of context again. The RED BOLD OVERSIZED statement is about the value of avoidance on gear. Sorry if it wasn't clear before but this means, mostly, talking about the relative power of gearing parry against gearing dodge. This did not change. It was speculated by the time I made it(it's consistent with the whole "parry has more dr" concept), and then confirmed by the man himself a few hours later. Theorycraft was not given because there was no way to test it.

On shield stats' competitiveness: What we will gain on the relative drop of hit size is lost on the fact we can't rely on blocks anymore. It's not a guaranteed part of our eh and for that effect we will be as warriors were till toc and block. Warriors may mooch more out of it with their shield block, but without such CD they're on the very same footing we are. To a *very* lesser extent, so will we whenever we get redoubt procs.




As I said somewhere else, I was very early to point out that our avoidance set bonus got worse because of the % values of avoidance overall dropping, which is exactly what you are looking at when scratching my own statement.



----
Awyndel: "Now it's uber" is rather complicated. If the avoidable damage is significant(think 3/4 of it, maybe), then definitely avoidance became better than it was in ToC. Otherwise, comparing avoidable hits in toc with avoidable hits in ICC, avoidance definitely lost power. (that's why I believe they fully intend on making most damage avoidable)
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby Rachmaninoff » Fri Oct 30, 2009 1:08 pm

Snake-Aes wrote:
Rachmaninoff wrote:I'm not questioning DR, even though we do have higher DR our dodge is still going to be significantly lower than our parry... parry will be our highest avoidance stat, will this help with the procs of bladeward?

No, because bladeward is tied exclusively to parry. It procs from your attacks(nothing to do with avoidance), and it de-procs from parrying. Your chance to parry will not change with Icecrown Radiance, thus your bladeward will not be changed.
Unless you're sporting 102% or more dodge+parry, at such a point ghostcrawler will pop out of your monitor and slap you with a snowcone.


ty... like I said this is the only wow related site I have access to at work so I couldn't answer my own question
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Re: Icecrown Radiance

Postby oldboyz » Fri Oct 30, 2009 1:09 pm

franckly speaking, i don't care about this radiance

all i want is challenge :mrgreen:

so i guess the point is not to focus on how much this nerf is crap etc, but rather how it will affect us :
-well, it seems healeur will have to work differently, let them check !! whatever this radiance if our healeurs still can keep us in live (worse scenario : it takes them much more energy. Good tank will not be able to compensate bad healeurs :? well, if too few raid are successful blizz will rechange numbers :roll: )

-versus the other tank class : if we are all "nerf" the same way, fine!! if one class, by his specific tank mecanic is subject to be much more interesting than a pal, than it is bad and this this what we need to avoid :wink:
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