Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby toothdecaykills » Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:59 am

Candiru wrote:http://blue.mmo-champion.com/12/19820322002-trial-of-the-grand-crusader-difficulty-hotfix.html

Gormok no longer has parry haste. (hot-fix)


I wish I could find the parse of our couple attempts that splattered the Warrior tank due to parry haste. We're being really risky with the fight though, swapping at 4 with only two tanks. Thankfully it paid off and we downed the beastie boys last night.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Candiru » Wed Sep 09, 2009 8:06 am

That might have been before the hot-fix.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby toothdecaykills » Wed Sep 09, 2009 9:45 am

Candiru wrote:That might have been before the hot-fix.


it was, I was just glad to see that change. Much smoother fight when ugly RNG doesn't pop up.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Synagain » Thu Oct 22, 2009 1:51 pm

Ok this is very interesting to me - but now the question I have is this (and it might have been brought up but so many pages to read through)

Is it worth wasting an Ilvl spot on expertise? Items at our current Ilvl's have 5 (roughly) spots for a value - (stam/str/dodge/exp/ArP/parry/armor) -- so If you are gearing for Expertise - you are losing something else.

So does the benifit of having high expertise REALLY reduce in the incoming amount of damage taken since you are losing DR in another form?

(Again sorry if this question was already asked/pointed out)

EDIT: I just noticed I necro'ed a kind of old thread but would still like to know the answer ^_^ and im kinda bad at theorycrafting :[
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:03 am

Synagain wrote:So does the benifit of having high expertise REALLY reduce in the incoming amount of damage taken since you are losing DR in another form?

(Again sorry if this question was already asked/pointed out)

The whole point of the calculation was to show that by trading X dodge rating for X expertise rating, you retain ~80% of the incoming damage reduction and gain more effective reduction of spike damage intake (generally considered more dangerous).

Would I advocate specifically seeking out expertise on gear? No, not particularly - for one thing there are enough bosses that don't parry haste that on average you're still better off with avoidance. But (at least on bosses that do parry-haste) expertise isn't as bad as people often made it out to be, and it does double as a half-decent threat stat below the soft-cap.

I'd probably aim to maintain about 26 expertise just for threat reasons, beyond that I wouldn't look for it on gear, but I wouldn't complain about it too loudly either.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby kanguran » Sat Nov 14, 2009 9:31 am

I also found this thread very interesting as a fair number of ToC pieces have expertise on them which I had previously let the warrior tank have.

My question is based on the ~70% expertise to dodge relationship that you quote. At dodge levels of about 29% that are average for lvl 245 gear how does DR affect your ratio? Was it calculated based on the amount of dodge given after DR at 29% levels or off of the amount given before?

Thanks
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Ros » Sat Nov 21, 2009 4:47 am

Forgive me for not reading all 10 pages of this thread, but I did read the first few posts containing theckhd's work. I reviewed all the mathematics and would like to point out an error.
theckhd at Wed Aug 26, 2009 8:13 pm wrote:
  • Expertise is about 75% as effective as dodge rating for reducing incoming damage ...
  • Expertise is about 71% as effective as dodge rating for reducing the number of incoming attacks that connect..

It is a logical contradiction for these two numbers (75% and 71%) to be different. This is easy to show:
Code: Select all
incoming damage = (damage per attack) * (number of incoming attacks that connect)

Nothing in this discussion affects the damage per attack. Therefore incoming damage is directly proportional to the number of attacks that hit. If the number of incoming attacks that connect changes by some percentage, then incoming damage changes by an equal percentage.

The error is resolved as follows.
theckhd at Wed Aug 26, 2009 8:13 pm wrote:we then plug that into the equations for boss parryhaste:
boss_parryhaste=(1+((2.*(7.5./100).*0.24)./0.5609)) = 1.0642

so we're effectively giving the boss 6.42% haste from parries, not 2.77%. Each point of expertise reduces parry by 0.25%, which means that each point of expertise skill should reduce this effective boss-haste by 0.21% ...
With 26 Expertise, boss_parryhaste = 1.06418
With 27 Expertise, boss_parryhaste=1 + 2*7.25/100*0.24/0.56088 = 1.06205

Indeed, one extra point of expertise skill reduces the effective boss haste by about .21%. The error lies in concluding that one extra point of expertise skill reduces incoming damage by .21%. Since incoming damage is proportional to the boss' haste, the correct reduction in incoming damage is (1.06418 - 1.06205)/1.06418 = .200%
Compared with the damage reduction of an equivalent amount of dodge rating (.28%), the value of expertise rating is .200/.28 = 71%. Tada, the same as the other number, as it must be.

Granted, the difference is almost small enough to be a rounding error, but the significance of the error is logical, not numerical. The two statements about reducing incoming damage and reducing "the number of incoming attacks that connect" are logically identical, therefore they must have the same number attached to them, and you can just remove one of them since it is redundant. So the conclusion should be:

  • Expertise is about 71% as effective as dodge rating for reducing incoming damage. (0.200% reduction for 1 expertise skill, compared to 0.28% reduction for an equivalent amount of dodge rating at reasonable DR levels).
The same thing applies to the other post with the revised numbers.

Great work aside from that; I appreciate it.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Wed Jan 13, 2010 12:49 pm

Ros: Thank you for catching that error. It significantly simplifies the calculation, since I can remove the redundancy.

I'm going to be updating the original post very soon with an updated version of the calculation. The m-file is done, but I may have to wait until tomorrow to find time to write up the results cleanly.

But the good news is that I can now generate data for all 4 classes, and do so for different boss swing speeds with or without Chill of the Throne.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Thu Jan 14, 2010 10:06 am

Good News Everyone!

The new results are up in the original post, written up in guide format. Comments/questions/discussion welcome.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Wrathy » Thu Jan 14, 2010 11:16 am

theckhd wrote:Good News Everyone!

The new results are up in the original post, written up in guide format. Comments/questions/discussion welcome.


Very Nicely Done. It seems as though our good friend expertise is going to be fun to manage in 264/277 gear, considering there are not that many pieces that have it on them. Time for me to get cracking on a new version of the ICC gear set.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Njall » Thu Jan 14, 2010 11:17 am

Wrathy wrote:
theckhd wrote:Good News Everyone!

The new results are up in the original post, written up in guide format. Comments/questions/discussion welcome.


Very Nicely Done. It seems as though our good friend expertise is going to be fun to manage in 264/277 gear, considering there are not that many pieces that have it on them. Time for me to get cracking on a new version of the ICC gear set.


True. And I wonder how this will affect the usefulness of SoC in light of the SoV Glyph.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Wrathy » Thu Jan 14, 2010 11:20 am

I dont think it will really effect SoCom. You shouldn't be using it on bosses anyways, and trash damage is negligible from a parry hasting stand point. As a threat mechanic, it may have some impact, but not in the magnitude that would make me reassess my gearing strategy for my threat set. I have always glyphed SoV, and will continue to do so, its just an added bonus for us.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Njall » Thu Jan 14, 2010 11:22 am

Wrathy wrote:I dont think it will really effect SoCom. You shouldn't be using it on bosses anyways, and trash damage is negligible from a parry hasting stand point. As a threat mechanic, it may have some impact, but not in the magnitude that would make me reassess my gearing strategy for my threat set. I have always glyphed SoV, and will continue to do so, its just an added bonus for us.


That is about what I had suspected. I lack the theorycraft savy of the people here, I am sorry to say. I'm going to keep using using SoComm for trash and heroics and, well, some cathartic face-smashing in Wintergrasp. I shan't be changing anything based on this through I should probably post an armory link here for vetting by more competent tanks. :D
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Shathus » Thu Jan 14, 2010 11:54 am

theckhd wrote:Good News Everyone!

The new results are up in the original post, written up in guide format. Comments/questions/discussion welcome.


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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Awyndel » Fri Jan 15, 2010 8:31 am

I don't really want to ruin a whole lot of good theory crafting here, but aren't we misinforming a whole lot of ppl by not mentioning most bosses don't parry haste at all?

Don't get me wrong, it's an interesting article, and certainly usefull for the situations in wich it applies. I have an expertise hard cap set in my bank coz of this.
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