Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Wardari » Fri Aug 28, 2009 1:39 am

Meloree wrote:
theckhd wrote:I sorta have a post on Gemming Theory half-written as well to address the issue of socket color matching, which would probably be the better framework in which to discuss it.


That's easy. I'll precis it for you. "Wrath of the Lich King and an era of unlimited healer mana and throughput, along with the trivial nature of maintaining threat has reduced protection paladin gearing into the enviably simple situation of having to look at only 2 stats on gear. The stamina, and the armor. Therefore, aside from one token red gem (pick up a 9 stam bonus with it), you should put 30 stam gems in every socket. The only exception is if you're below the defence minimum of 536."

Yeah, it makes me just a little bit sick inside, too.

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Defense minimum of 536?

I'm guessing you're talking as if using the Resilience/Stamina shoulder enchant.

This is something I'm still torn over, as I more often than not go with the defense/dodge enchant still and make up the stamina elsewhere, but I guess each to their own :) (it is becoming more and more attractive tho as DR is punishing me more and more with each gear upgrade)
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby tlitp » Fri Aug 28, 2009 1:45 am

Meloree wrote:Wrath of the Lich King and an era of unlimited healer mana and throughput, along with the trivial nature of maintaining threat has reduced protection paladin gearing into the enviably simple situation of having to look at only 2 stats on gear. The stamina, and the armor.

if blizzard would suddenly decide to switch the itemization from any other stat to solely stamina/armor (ipoint per ipoint), each and every tank would be a sad, sad puppy
bluntly put : why do tanks stack stamina in wotlk ? because they afford to, already having generous amounts of avoidance stats on their gear (gems/enchants aside)

actually, that's a fairly common misconception... let's hope that the upcoming survival sims will change something about that
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Fri Aug 28, 2009 5:55 am

Meloree wrote:That's easy. I'll precis it for you. "Wrath of the Lich King and an era of unlimited healer mana and throughput, along with the trivial nature of maintaining threat has reduced protection paladin gearing into the enviably simple situation of having to look at only 2 stats on gear. The stamina, and the armor. Therefore, aside from one token red gem (pick up a 9 stam bonus with it), you should put 30 stam gems in every socket. The only exception is if you're below the defence minimum of 536."

It's actually quite a bit more subtle than that, as tlitp pointed out in his post.

But as a preview: If the metric you use to determine your "worth" as a tank is EH, and nothing else, then stamina stacking is the way to go. But there are other metrics, and depending on which one you use (basically defining your "gearing philosophy"), stamina-stacking isn't always the way to optimize your the metric.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Nadir » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:00 am

IMO the best practice is to gem and enchant your progression item set towards the hardest encounter of the raid tier. In the case of Ulduar that would be Yogg 0, which heavily favors physical effective health stacking over all other factors. Avoidance stacking simply isn't reliable enough to survive the massive beating that tanks face after returning to standard positions after Empowering Shadows.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Java » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:02 am

theckhd wrote:
Amaranthea wrote:Has it been established that the parrying of the dot application actually hastes the mob's swing?

No, not empirically. It's been shown that it can be parried, but I didn't check the log to see if the next attack had been hasted.


This topic is really really intersting. Where can I see evidence that the dot application can be parried? Does it mean that even when the melee atack hits, the "dot component" of the attack can be parried? Is there any data/parser to prove it? If so, would this be a bug?
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Jasari » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:07 am

Java wrote:
theckhd wrote:
Amaranthea wrote:Has it been established that the parrying of the dot application actually hastes the mob's swing?

No, not empirically. It's been shown that it can be parried, but I didn't check the log to see if the next attack had been hasted.


This topic is really really intersting. Where can I see evidence that the dot application can be parried? Does it mean that even when the melee atack hits, the "dot component" of the attack can be parried? Is there any data/parser to prove it? If so, would this be a bug?


3.2 Patch notes wrote:Seal of Vengeance and Seal of Corruption: These seals have been redesigned. Only auto-attacks and Shield of the Righteous can place the debuff on the paladin’s current target(s). However, while the seal is active, each melee swing or ability (excluding judgements) that lands on the target will deal a percentage of weapon damage as Holy damage to the target. This damage maxes out at 33% weapon damage with 5 applications of the debuff and scales upward evenly based on how many applications of the debuff are active. This Holy damage deals double-damage critical strikes. In addition, the damage-over-time debuff is now considered a melee attack for the purposes of determining its chance to hit, miss, be dodged or parried.


I think the "Shield of the Righteous" is a typo and is meant to be "Hammer".
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Wardari » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:13 am

Nadir wrote:IMO the best practice is to gem and enchant your progression item set towards the hardest encounter of the raid tier. In the case of Ulduar that would be Yogg 0, which heavily favors physical effective health stacking over all other factors. Avoidance stacking simply isn't reliable enough to survive the massive beating that tanks face after returning to standard positions after Empowering Shadows.


Yes and No, providing you have the gold to re-gem and enchant regulary for these encounters I see no problem in gearing for extra avoidance or threat for one encounter and then when you reach (taking your example) yogg+0 just regem and enchant for pure effective health.

Regemming itself costs absolutely nothing these days with gems being purchased from the Vendors for emblems - I myself have minimum of 5 gems for each colour and 10 of Blue, Purple and Green sitting there ready to go.
Green items gained while doing dailies or the odd heroic I DE and again have a stack of mats in the bank.
The only extra unavoidable costs are the Vendor bought things like shoulder enchants.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:30 am

Nadir wrote:IMO the best practice is to gem and enchant your progression item set towards the hardest encounter of the raid tier. In the case of Ulduar that would be Yogg 0, which heavily favors physical effective health stacking over all other factors. Avoidance stacking simply isn't reliable enough to survive the massive beating that tanks face after returning to standard positions after Empowering Shadows.

I'd modify your statement slightly. I think the best practice is to gem and enchant your progression item set towards the hardest encounter you're currently working on. It makes no sense for someone to gem for Yogg+0 if they're not going to even start attempts for another month or two. My guild is still working on Yogg+1, Firefighter, and KKK to finish off our Ironbounds, none of which are severe EH tests of the tank. Gemming for extra EH when I literally never die is really fairly useless in practice, I'd rather help conserve healer mana and attention by getting extra avoidance/mitigation. If you can lower incoming damage to the point that you can free up an extra healer for raid-healing on those fights, it makes a noticeable difference.

And when I say "literally never die," I mean it. I don't think we've had a single wipe in all of those attempts that was due to me, as a tank, not having enough Effective health for the encounter. It's always positioning failures, standing in things, low DPS, insanity, or any number of other things that can't be corrected by extra stamina on the tank.

Now, once we start on Yogg+0, I could see re-gemming for extra EH, but at the rate we're going I'll be in full T9 when that happens and will be gearing for CC hard modes.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:33 am

Java wrote:This topic is really really intersting. Where can I see evidence that the dot application can be parried? Does it mean that even when the melee atack hits, the "dot component" of the attack can be parried? Is there any data/parser to prove it? If so, would this be a bug?


There's an in-depth look at the subject over in this thread. I posted a Vezax WWS parse that showed the application of Holy Vengeance can be avoided (dodge/parry/miss), but the DoT cannot.

Coincidentally that post also lead to Rhiannon figuring out the exact mechanics of the bug with SoV proc damage when there are multiple paladins in the raid.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Meloree » Fri Aug 28, 2009 7:12 am

tlitp wrote:if blizzard would suddenly decide to switch the itemization from any other stat to solely stamina/armor (ipoint per ipoint), each and every tank would be a sad, sad puppy
bluntly put : why do tanks stack stamina in wotlk ? because they afford to, already having generous amounts of avoidance stats on their gear (gems/enchants aside)

actually, that's a fairly common misconception... let's hope that the upcoming survival sims will change something about that


Point granted. But it was never really in debate, the avoidance and threat is part of the background condition. Serves me right for trying to be lightly snarky. I would like to see some survival sims, though. I'd love to have an excuse to go back to a more balanced gearing philosophy. I just don't see it in WotLK.

theckhd wrote:It's actually quite a bit more subtle than that, as tlitp pointed out in his post.

But as a preview: If the metric you use to determine your "worth" as a tank is EH, and nothing else, then stamina stacking is the way to go. But there are other metrics, and depending on which one you use (basically defining your "gearing philosophy"), stamina-stacking isn't always the way to optimize your the metric.


Yes, my apologies. I was shooting for amusing. I always really enjoy your posts, and very much look forward to this one. In most, I learn something. I'd almost love to be converted, I miss having any semblance of balance in my tank gear. But I find that current content (by which I mean "Ulduar hardmodes that are tank checks") reward EH almost exclusively.

theckhd wrote:Gemming for extra EH when I literally never die is really fairly useless in practice, I'd rather help conserve healer mana and attention by getting extra avoidance/mitigation. If you can lower incoming damage to the point that you can free up an extra healer for raid-healing on those fights, it makes a noticeable difference.


By comparison, I stack the crap out of health for each of those fights, for the simple fact that on each one I now have 0 assigned healers. I have a beacon. If something goes wrong, I want there to be lots and lots of leeway. I'd love to find a convincing reason to be wrong, but I just can't see the value of chasing anything but EH right now. It might have something to do with my raid setup, or my healers, or just my guilds strats for things. It might have something to do with being well over 60% raidbuffed avoidance, for free.

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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Suzushiro » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:41 am

tlitp wrote:
Meloree wrote:Wrath of the Lich King and an era of unlimited healer mana and throughput, along with the trivial nature of maintaining threat has reduced protection paladin gearing into the enviably simple situation of having to look at only 2 stats on gear. The stamina, and the armor.

if blizzard would suddenly decide to switch the itemization from any other stat to solely stamina/armor (ipoint per ipoint), each and every tank would be a sad, sad puppy
bluntly put : why do tanks stack stamina in wotlk ? because they afford to, already having generous amounts of avoidance stats on their gear (gems/enchants aside)

actually, that's a fairly common misconception... let's hope that the upcoming survival sims will change something about that

That's actually a good point, one of the reasons why nobody ever gems for avoidance is that between the ~15% avoidance we get via the defense cap and whatever we get from our gear we've usually gone too far up the diminishing returns curve for it to be worth gemming or enchanting for avoidance unless you're choosing between a lot of avoidance or a little bit of EH (ie stam/defense gem vs. stam gem for a yellow socket when the bonus is a lot of stam.) Since TPS is also rarely an issue these days it's not worth gemming for that either.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby toothdecaykills » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:46 am

I'm truly the only tank I know that disagrees with the current gearing being 'mindless'. Through pretty hard work I've managed to craft a set with 50k hp, 2350 BV, and 60% avoidance all while fully raid buffed. Granted, not everybody has the opportunities I've had to aquire every piece on their wish list (sometimes multiples, like my two Sorthalis enchanted differently), but I truly love this position I'm in. With CC hard modes right around the corner, I feel like I'm in a perfect spot in gearing with several different paths to go that will allow me to keep this balance I've managed to attain.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:59 am

Meloree wrote:By comparison, I stack the crap out of health for each of those fights, for the simple fact that on each one I now have 0 assigned healers. I have a beacon. If something goes wrong, I want there to be lots and lots of leeway. I'd love to find a convincing reason to be wrong, but I just can't see the value of chasing anything but EH right now. It might have something to do with my raid setup, or my healers, or just my guilds strats for things. It might have something to do with being well over 60% raidbuffed avoidance, for free.

Well, that pretty much agrees with what I said too. If by stacking that extra EH, you can drop from 1 healer to 0 healer, then it's probably worth doing. In practice though, that extra EH probably isn't the reason you're able to do so. Whether the paladin beacons you and heals someone else, or heals you and beacons someone else, he's still gotta be healing someone all the time to make sure you're getting heals. You could still call that having 1 healer, or maybe half a healer depending on how you decide to look at it. But either way, if you already have the EH to consistently survive that fight with 0 healers, even with little hiccups due to healer movement, then the advantage of adding more is greatly diminished.

Also, having just a beacon is dangerous because if nobody takes enough damage to warrant a Holy Light, and he switches to FoL, your incoming HPS might drop enough to kill you. But that's a different point entirely.

Interestingly, I think patch 3.2 introduced an excellent way to tell whether you're ahead of the EH thresholds you should be for any fight. The rule of thumb I'd use is this:
If your AD "1-up" isn't ever proccing until you call for a wipe, then you have enough EH for the fight. If it is proccing, then you should be trying to boost your EH until it doesn't.

Of course, it only works if your healers are competent and don't screw up every other fight. It's really quite elegant, and a shame the other tanking classes don't have a similar way to gauge this without wiping (obviously if they go SPLAT once a fight, there's a problem).

But anyway, I'll save the rest of this discussion for that tutorial, once it's finished and posted. I really wanted this thread to be about the expertise calculation and picking apart the math until we're sure it's right.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby theckhd » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:02 am

Also, I tried really hard to come up with a "If AD ain't proccin', don't come a knockin'" joke for that last post, and failed miserably. 10 "i win the internets" to anyone who can come up with something funny for me.
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Re: Calculating the avoidance value of expertise

Postby Robbert » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:10 pm

Ok...so Expertise is ~75% as effective as an avoidance stat as dodge. A much higher number than I would have thought, but I'm not about to complain about this.

One question this brings up...dodge rating along with the contributions to dodge from both defense rating and agility face diminishing returns. Taking that into consideration, at what dodge % does Expertise actually become a better avoidance stat than dodge? Does this news mean at a certain dodge threshold it's actually worth gemming/enchanting for expertise?
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