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Devo and AD on effective health [math]

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Postby Kitara » Tue Sep 25, 2007 3:12 pm

If you compare devo like that you have to compare it with another situational buff/debuff like the health shout or demo shout. Both are quite more effective than what devo can do. So best ignore such stuff or paladins come out even worse than you'd calculate with it ;p

As for ardent defender: The problem is 2 things: First ardent defender becomes weaker against harder hitting attacks and as such you don't get the full 15% extra HP (you get that against 1HP attacks)

Second ardent defender as such always has a HP portion (or the complete range against hard hitters!) that is leapfroggable depending how you get into the HP range and at which HP you are hit etc. As such it's nothing you can rely on and more works like stats as dodge. Still we want to survive burst damage and as such reliable damage reduction is the key, and ardent defender is only reliable against weak hitting enemies (like AoE situations).
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Postby qwyn » Tue Sep 25, 2007 3:43 pm

youre right i completely forgot comm shout, thanks kit

since devo seems to be such a sticking point, im gonna take it out. heres the revised math:

base EH, warr: 36571
warr EH w/o tauren +10% stam racial: 32914
base EH, pally: 30730
pally with assumed +7.5% from AD: 33034
pally with assumed +15% from AD: 35339

wow, now all i get out of this whole thread is taurens are freakin OP...
if im holy specced its because i havent had time to clean the blood of my enemies off my arena gear yet
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Postby Kitara » Tue Sep 25, 2007 4:14 pm

Tauren get 5% not 10%... but the 5% gets added on buffs and all which is quite a substantial difference.
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Postby qwyn » Tue Sep 25, 2007 4:27 pm

base EH, warr: 36571
warr EH w/o tauren +5% stam racial: 34742
base EH, pally: 30730
pally with assumed +7.5% from AD: 33034
pally with assumed +15% from AD: 35339

gee kitara, what would i do without you (maybe khash was right 0.o)
if im holy specced its because i havent had time to clean the blood of my enemies off my arena gear yet
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Postby Agravaine » Tue Sep 25, 2007 10:02 pm

I agree with Psiven. Ardent Defender mechanics are going to get nerfed when we get more hps.

Ardent Defender is basically a failed experiment, I'd rather have Blessed Life at least it's always on.
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Postby qwyn » Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:20 am

the more i hear about it the more i am reluctantly forced into feeling that way too, agravaine.

which is really too bad - i dont RP, but ive always liked the romanticism that AD represented. the "giving it more-than-your-all when things look the most desperate" that suited the paladin mystique so well...

ok, nerd time over - more stam, please!
if im holy specced its because i havent had time to clean the blood of my enemies off my arena gear yet
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Postby Bobness » Wed Sep 26, 2007 4:13 am

Yep... Agree also Ardent Defender is on the way out in it's current form.

It's great for farming/PVP .. when you know how to use it properly.

I never ever consider it worth mentioning unless i'm Tanking low damage Trash.

Yes it Works ...yes it's saved my life... but i've already got a suitcase of Talents that are chance based.

It will be interesting to see how Blizz play it tbh
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Postby Sharlos » Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:56 am

Well, judging from ur math, if Ardent Defender became unleapfroggable, it would basicly solve our hp deficit all the while making it a more unique change.

We wouldn't need more health.
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Postby Agravaine » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:23 am

Even if you made it not-leapfroggable, it would still be less effective health than superficially it would appear.

No healer wants to see you go below 50% let alone 30%, it defeats the purpose of what you are trying to do as a healer.

So, the time adjusted effective health of even a non-leapfrogged AD is going to be low.

Now, granted you will be harder to kill, but you will still also be as hard to heal. Fair trade? maybe.

Being harder to heal is the big knock on us, not that we take slightly more damage in typical circumstances.
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Postby Sharlos » Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:32 am

Agravaine wrote:Even if you made it not-leapfroggable, it would still be less effective health than superficially it would appear.

No healer wants to see you go below 50% let alone 30%, it defeats the purpose of what you are trying to do as a healer.

So, the time adjusted effective health of even a non-leapfrogged AD is going to be low.

Now, granted you will be harder to kill, but you will still also be as hard to heal. Fair trade? maybe.

Being harder to heal is the big knock on us, not that we take slightly more damage in typical circumstances.


Spell Warding: Additionally, all healing received is increased by 3/6%.
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Postby Arcand » Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:18 am

I wanted to take a more detailed look at the contribution of Ardent Defender, so I compared how many hits of various strengths it would take to kill a paladin with and without AD.

If you start at 100% and each hit is 5% of your health, AD allows you to survive 23 hits instead of 20. If each hit is 10% of your health, AD allows you to survive 14 hits instead of 10...and so on...

Here are the raw numbers I'm using:

100% start:
5% hits 23/20
10% hits 14/10
20% hits 6/5
30% or higher no effect

95% start:
5% 22/19
10% 11/10
20% 6/5
30% or higher no effect

90% start:
5% 21/18
10% 11/9
20% 6/5
30% 4/3
40% or higher no effect

85% start:
5% 20/17
10% 10/9
20% no effect
30% 4/3
40% or higher no effect

80% start:
5% 19/16
10% 10/8
20% 5/4
30% or higher no effect

75% start:
5% 18/15
10% 9/8
20% 5/4
30% or higher no effect

70% start:
5% 17/14
10% 9/7
20% 5/4
30% no effect
40% 3/2

65% start:
5% 16/13
10% 8/7
20% or higher no effect

60% start:
5% 15/12
10% 8/6
20% 4/3
30% 3/2
40% or higher no effect

I didn't go any lower than 60% because I think it's fair to say that as long as healers have a fight under control, they will generally have you somewhere in the 60-100 zone when the next hit lands. (Late-stage Gruul and so on, of course, they tighten it up considerably and have you between about 90 and 100, but with ruinous effects on their efficiency.)

I'm going to assume that health-when-hit levels are uniformly spread between 60 and 100, and figure out an average contribution from AD, and we'll see how close it is to the guesses we've been making.

The theoretical maximum increase in our time-to-death is 65 + (35/0.7) = 115 or 15% more damage. Some of the tests below come out higher than that because there is wasted damage due to overkill.

Time-to-death increases for 5% hits:
15%, 16%, 17%, 18%, 19%, 20%, 21%, 23%, 25%
Average time-to-death increase against 5% hits: 19.3%

Time-to-death increases for 10% hits:
40%, 10%, 22%, 11%, 25%, 13%, 29%, 13%, 33%
Average time-to-death increase against 10% hits: 22%

Time-to-death increases for 20% hits:
20%, 20%, 20%, 0%, 25%, 25%, 25%, 0%, 33%
Average time-to-death increase against 20% hits: 19%

Time-to-death increases for 30% hits:
0, 0, 33%, 33%, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50%
Average time-to-death increase against 30% hits: 13%

Time-to-death increases for 40% hits:
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50%, 0, 0
Average time-to-death increase against 40% hits: 6%

There is no time-to-death increase, ever, for a hit which does 50% or more of your health in damage. Even if you land on exactly 35% to trigger AD, the next hit will inflict 50% x 0.70 = 35% of your health, killing you despite AD's best possible effort.

So - we all knew it already, but I'll say it again just to hear myself talk: Ardent Defender makes us even better at sweeping aside rabble, but deserts us completely against the big hitters when (I would say) we need it most. lol bliz iz dum.
Last edited by Arcand on Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Fridmarr » Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:29 am

Most 25 man raid bosses seem to be in that 20% of your health range minimum, which for most of us is probably in the 4k area. Would you mind running the data for 25% and 30%?
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Postby Arcand » Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:19 pm

I'm doing the existing sets right now (5/10/20/30/40...) but in an hour and a half I'll be back at the computer where my Excel thing is and I can easily knock off a data set for 25%.
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Postby Blutreich » Wed Sep 26, 2007 2:24 pm

Doing the math in my head today at work I came up with
taking hits < 18% of your total HP guarantees AD will let you eat at least 1 extra hit, while taking hits > 46% of your hp guarantees AD will do nothing*.


The Math:
for simplicity the mob hits for exactly 1k magic damage, adding in shield block will provide more benefit from AD.

to determine a guaranteed extra hit from AD we place the tankadin at 30% hp, now he takes a hit for 1K then AD kicks in and he gets hit for 650(1k-35%). for them to survive that means that 30% of their hp is at least 1651 so their max is 5503 or greater. then you see what % the hit is of their max hp 1000/5503=18%

to determine AD can not save him we put him at 29.99% hp (using 30% for simplicity) now he gets hit for 650(1k-35%) for him to die that means that 30% of their hp is 650 or less, making their max hp no greater then 2167. and 1k is 46% of 2167.


also of note bosses with flurry like Prince Malchezaar for example make AD useless, all 3 hits get figured at the same time so for AD to help you have to already be under 30% when he gets flurry, and if you are under 30% and can still take 3 hits from him you are probably 80 and 2 manning him.
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Postby Kitara » Thu Sep 27, 2007 11:37 am

I think ardent defender unleapfroggable would be the easiest way to close the HP gap, put improved LoH on tier 1 holy or something and then fix your gear (get that intellect off!) and maybe 0.5 more seconds on holy shield and I'm happy.
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