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Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby KysenMurrin » Thu Jul 09, 2009 2:41 pm

Wanted to see how changing some dodge to parry worked in action for my character with the new formulae, so I played with swapping out a 34 dodge gem with a 34 parry gem on the PTR.
I noticed that unbuffed (108 agi) I had a net loss of avoidance of ~0.03%. With Kings + Mark of the Wild, the difference between the dodge and parry gems was 0.01% avoidance. Add in Horn/SoE, and I think I'd see a net gain. Very small differences, but it seems like this fine tuning actually works.

Of course, with the gear I have on PTR atm I only have one dodge gem to swap out, the rest is all on my gear, and it's barely worth paying for the gem for just a few fractions of a percent, but it means in future I'll be considering parry (or parry/def) in red slots.
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby jere » Thu Jul 09, 2009 3:49 pm

Theckhd,

Looking over it the data you posted is pretty exciting. Some of your results for the first stage matched mine as well (the point before you start stacking defense again). I found the dodge/parry ratio to be 1.875 if you keep defense constant, which is close to your 1.75 found through iteration.

Using differential analysis, I would have found that 6.3% parry matched with 11.8125% dodge roughly, which is extremely close to your 11.94% gotten through iteration, so those results seem to match up well. I haven't put in the time to see how stacking all 3 at once would work, but it looks like you used the same method to get your ratios, so that seems pretty sound.

Out of curiosity, have you though about how the results look when taking defense in integer steps? Converting from defense rating to defense skill seems to happen in integer values (at least from what we have seen so far).

A poster over at tankspot has gone through that and seems to have found that it is ultimately better not to stack defense at all due to the effects of the stairstep effect of the conversion. I will be honest and say I haven't looked through it thoroughly myself, but it might be something to consider and at least check out. The link for the first post is http://www.tankspot.com/forums/f14/5240 ... post251383 but there are other posts after that too. I pointed him over here as well.

So my question to you is if you can compare your proposed ratio, but take into consideration the stair step effect and see how it compares to simply keeping your dodge=1.875parry while not stacking defense at all.
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby MrDuck » Fri Jul 10, 2009 3:22 am

theckhd wrote:
  1. Take current ratings and subtract out 689 def, 96 dodge, and 64 parry
  2. Figure out your current ratio of dodge:def:parry
  3. if one of these is higher than the ideal ratio of 2.4:1.8:1, swap out some of the rating that's above the target ratio for a rating that's below or at the target value.
  4. Recalculate and lather, rinse, repeat.
Okay, I feel a little stupid now, but if I'm understanding it correctly, when i do the substracting:
Code: Select all
def  =759-689 =70
dodge=716-96  =620
parry=158-64  =94

I end up at some 620:70:94, now that's not nearly even similar to the ratios desired for 3.2
Does that mean I will have to drop some two hundreds of dodge(very roughly) to get some efficiency out of these stats?
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby jere » Fri Jul 10, 2009 4:37 am

MrDuck wrote:
theckhd wrote:
  1. Take current ratings and subtract out 689 def, 96 dodge, and 64 parry
  2. Figure out your current ratio of dodge:def:parry
  3. if one of these is higher than the ideal ratio of 2.4:1.8:1, swap out some of the rating that's above the target ratio for a rating that's below or at the target value.
  4. Recalculate and lather, rinse, repeat.
Okay, I feel a little stupid now, but if I'm understanding it correctly, when i do the substracting:
Code: Select all
def  =759-689 =70
dodge=716-96  =620
parry=158-64  =94

I end up at some 620:70:94, now that's not nearly even similar to the ratios desired for 3.2
Does that mean I will have to drop some two hundreds of dodge(very roughly) to get some efficiency out of these stats?


so your ratios are:
6.6:0.7:1

If Theck's ratios and analysis are correct that means:
6.6 is higher than 2.4, so go to the next one.
0.7 is lower than 1.8, so stack more defense until you have a 1.8:1 ratio with parry
Once that is done, stack both def and parry in a 1.8 ratio until your dodge is down to 2.4:1 with parry
Stack all three at 2.4:1.8:1

Assuming I understood Theck's post correctly.
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby jere » Fri Jul 10, 2009 5:13 am

Theck, looking over some of the intial numbers, I have some questions.

At one point, you state when you have 689 defense rating and 64 parry rating, you get 6.3% parry. Now in 3.1, 64 parry rating would give you 1.3% parry, but 1.3% + 5.6% (from 689 def rating) will be 6.9%, which doesn't match your 6.3% figure. Furthermore that's the 3.1 rating. The 3.2 rating would make 64 parry = 1.41% parry giving 7.01% parry when adding in the 5.6% from defense.

What am I missing there? I can't get the numbers to come out correctly. I am sure I am doing something silly.
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby majiben » Fri Jul 10, 2009 5:21 am

Diminishing returns
Amirya wrote:some bizarre lovechild of Hawking, Einstein, and Theck
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby jere » Fri Jul 10, 2009 6:15 am

See, something silly!
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby Xenix » Fri Jul 10, 2009 7:01 am

Decided to pop over into this thread - I'm the one who was doing all the math on Tankspot.com. From what I discovered using brute-force calculation of the best possible avoidance given an arbitrary number of points to spread between dodge/defense/parry rating (with 304 bonus agility as a paladin), the following rules should govern gearing for best avoidance in 3.2:

1) Stack defense rating until you reach a number that has a minimum of wasted in the defense rating -> defense conversion. (728,787,846,910 and 969 are the best possible ones to hit).
2) Stack dodge/parry rating from there so that the post-DR portions of your Dodge% and Parry% are in a 1.875:1 ratio
3) If your total dodge+parry rating is getting anywhere near your defense rating, try to hit the next good number of defense rating (while adjusting your dodge/parry rating to maintain #2) as the diminishing returns on miss will be such that you will notice a slight difference.
4) If you can't hit the next good number of defense rating, don't worry - keep stacking dodge/parry in the aforementioned ratio and you'll be fine.

You can look at the tankspot.com post which Jere posted above to get to the plots, but if you want to look at the raw data, Here is a google docs spreadsheet of the maximum possible avoidance at each total of rating points (calculated by checking the total avoidance of every combination possible). Aside from listing just the ratings and total avoidance, I also made a column with the post-DR percentages of dodge/parry/miss, and the ratio of post-DR dodge% to post-DR parry%. You'll notice that every single ratio hovers around 1.875:1.

Also, in regards to 1), I am not advocating going out of your way to hit those five exact numbers. Any defense rating amount with <10% wasted defense skill should be indistinguishable from those to two decimal places. (see the tankspot.com post for a plot and further explanation.) Also, once epic gems come out and we're gemming in 10-defense rating increments, you won't be able to use gems to shift toward a better defense number easily by gemming since the steps up a defense rating line are almost all in 5-point increments.

I believe if you run the numbers on your own simulation, though, you'll see that the closer your dodge-parry ratio is to 1.875:1, the greater your avoidance will be for any given point spread.
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby towelliee » Fri Jul 10, 2009 8:34 am

So I get

3 defense 336 Dodge 271 Parry

This is subtracting 689/96/64 from my ratings of 692/432/335

Now how do I get my ratio and from my ratio where do I go?
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby honorshammer » Fri Jul 10, 2009 8:45 am

towelliee wrote:So I get

3 defense 336 Dodge 271 Parry

This is subtracting 689/96/64 from my ratings of 692/432/335

Now how do I get my ratio and from my ratio where do I go?


336:3:271

1.23 : 0.01 : 1
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby Dantriges » Fri Jul 10, 2009 8:47 am

Considering that aatm have a total of three gems where I socket defense or agilitiy, I wonder if fine tuning is actually possible in a way that matters. In 3.2 it´s six sockets as JC gems won´t be prismatice any longer. Don´t think I will get many more sockets, so we talk about hm perhaps 80 rating or 100 for a blacksmith? Most of the stats are dependant on gear and selection choices are limited to tier, a few off set pieces and so on. Some of them will probably itemised horribly.

So the whole thing will rather be interesting for the gear lists.
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby towelliee » Fri Jul 10, 2009 8:53 am

So now what do I do with

1.23 : 0.01 : 1 What will tell me about the best possible manner in which to gem my gear or itemize.
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby culhag » Fri Jul 10, 2009 9:08 am

It means that to maximize your avoidance, you'll need a LOT more defense and less parry.
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby towelliee » Fri Jul 10, 2009 10:06 am

Makes sense thats from my EH set my AV set has 31% d 21 parry so I have to log in and switch gears
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Re: Some preliminary conclusions concerning avoidance in 3.2

Postby Cema » Fri Jul 10, 2009 11:13 am

I hate blizz

Every 2 month you have to change your theorycraft and your gear because they stupidly change the rules of optimization

Definitively a thing that upset me ..


no wait ... I really hate blizz


edit: I'll try to share my own results when I will have them
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