Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis - WotLK/3.x

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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:42 am

Update: This analysis is outdated, see the first post for a link to the most up-to-date version of this analysis.

Since there's been a lot of interest over in the Talent Specs forum about how different talents compare in DPS/TPS, I figured I'd put together a quick simulation. The file can be found here.

The goal of this analysis is twofold:
  • Test the relative effectiveness (per talent point) of the following talents (abbreviations used in parentheses):
    • Seals of the Pure (SotP or S)
    • Touched by the Light (TbtL or T)
    • Conviction (Conv or V)
    • Crusade (Crus or C)
    • One-handed Weapon Specialization (1HWS)
    • Reckoning (Reck or R)
  • Based on these results, compare a few of the most likely talent builds for 3.1

Setup: For this analysis, we will stick to standard 969, assuming a fast weapon (Last Laugh) and Seal of Vengeance. We will use the Judgement and SoV glyphs. We'll repeat the simulation twice, first for a "generic" mob (3% Crusade bonus) and second for an Undead mob (6% crusade bonus).

This will be the basic set of talents we'll start from.
51 points in Prot, with 0/5 Reckoning and 0/3 TbtL
6 in Ret

This leaves 14 points that can be put in other places, 15 if we drop to 1/2 Spiritual Attunement. The 3 points in Divinity could also be put in Reckoning.

Results:
First, we'll try and test the effect of each talent individually:
We'll calculate DPS and TPS for the following builds:
1) 0/3 1HWS (assume 3 more points in non-dps talents lower in prot tree)
2) 3/3 1HWS (base configuration)
3) 5 SotP
4) 3 TbtL
5) 5 Reckoning
6) 5 Conviction
7) 5 Conviction 3 Crusade

And then determine each talent's individual contribution through simple subtraction and division. For example, to find out how much each point of 1HWS contributes, we subtract (1) from (2), and divide the result by 3.

Image
The plot clearly shows that 1HWS swamps the competition. TbtL edges out Crusade slightly, Conviction and SotP are neck and neck, and Reckoning still sucks.

Repeating this for an undead mob boosts Crusade ahead of TbtL by a reasonable margin. The plot isn't terribly different other than that, so rather than image-tag it I'll just link to it.

Now, this test only measures the usefulness of each talent point individually, it's neglecting a lot of the synergistic possibilities that you can create with different specs. However, there are an enormous amount of ways to fill these 6 talents with 14 points, so we'd like to use these results to narrow it down to a manageable number.

It's pretty clear that we'll never want to get rid of 1HWS, because it's unlikely that any sort of synergy will make any other talent as wise an investment. So right off the bat, let's say we'll take 3/3 1HWS in all of our builds. Similarly, TbtL is strong enough that we'll probably want 3/3 in that as well. We'll tack on one build at the end that goes 2/3 TbtL 3/3 Crusade as well, since I've seen that suggested in a few threads.

That leaves us with 11 points for SotP, Reckoning, Conviction, and Crusade to play with. Luckily, there are only a few reasonable ways one could divide these final 11 points between them. So we'll calculate the DPS and TPS for the following builds, and plot them to see how they stack up to one another:

1) 5 SotP
2) 5 SotP + 5 Reck (move 3 points from Divinity to Reck)
3) 5 SotP + 2 Conv
4) 3 Conv
5) 5 Conv
6) 5 Conv + 5 Reck (move 3 points from Divinity to Reck)
7) 5 Conv + 2 Crusade
8) 5 Conv + 3 Crusade (assume dropping a point in SA)
9) 5 Conv + 3 Crusade (assume dropping a point in TbtL)

To save some screen real-estate, I've gone to the trouble of plotting both DPS and TPS on the same plot. For those not familiar with this type of plot, the blue line is DPS, and the values are read off of the left axis. The red line is TPS, and its values can be read off of the right (also red) axis.
The talent specs are 1-9 across the bottom, but to make it easier to read I've labeled them with an abbreviated form of the spec - in other words, 5S is 5 SotP, 5V+5R is 5 Conviction + 5 Reckoning, and so on. The last one is 5 Conviction, 3 Crusade, 2 TbtL.
Image
This plot is actually pretty interesting, and there's a lot of good information you can pull out of it, but here are the highlights:
  • With the default gear set, 5 points in Conviction out-does 5 points in SotP, even for threat.
  • 5 points in Reckoning gives roughly 60 DPS (12 per point), which is almost identical to only 2 points in Crusade or 3 points in Conviction. It's far worse for TPS, as 5 points of Reck is roughly equivalent to 1 point in Crusade or 2 in Conviction.
  • 5 Conv + 5 Reck (5V+5R) and 5 Conv + 2 Crus (5V+2C) both beat out 5 Conv + 3 Crus - 1 TbtL, indicating that against non-special mobs, it's never worth dropping TbtL for Crusade, just as the simple analysis suggested.
  • Seals of the Pure is fairly weak here, since it's beaten out by Conviction hands-down. The only benefit is that it requires no "wasted" points, whereas Conviction requires an investment of 4 sub-optimal points. However, you could beat a straight 5V with 5S+4R, which is something to consider. I ran the numbers with the T8 2-piece set bonus (and without the T7 2-piece), but it didn't seem to change things much - plot here if you're interested.

The plot for an Undead mob show a very large increase for any spec including Crusade, and reverse the last bullet point above - Now it's worth dropping a point from TbtL for the 3rd point in Crusade, and obviously 3/3 of each is stronger yet.

I haven't had time to mess around with scaling - one question I'd like to investigate is how each of these talents and specs scale with gear, but first I need to update the gear module with more Ulduar gear. If someone would throw together comparable T7 and T8 sets (including off-set items), I'll re-run the simulation to see if anything changes. I can also use the differences between the Ulduar and T7 sets to estimate what T9 will look like. I'd expect that Conviction and Crusade will scale better than SotP, simply because I'd guess that HotR damage will increase faster than Seal damage, but I have no mathematics to back that up, just speculation.

TLDR Summary:
  • To maximize threat, fill these talents in the following order: 1HWS > TbtL > Crusade > Conviction > SotP > Reckoning. If you're fighting Crusade-friendly mobs only, you can prioritize Crusade above TbtL.
  • Spec-wise, anything with Crusade beats anything with SotP, point for point.
  • Reckoning, as weak as it is, is not as terrible as many make it out to be. It's still our weakest option, but since it's already in Protection, it doesn't require us to waste any points in filler to get to. In fact, since it's one of the eligible talents for the 3 points of filler we need to get to the deeper Prot talents, 3/5 Reckoning (for 36 DPS) is a viable alternative to 3/3 Divinity. 2/5 if you want Divine Sacrifice.
Last edited by theckhd on Sat Apr 11, 2009 8:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Marsha » Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:51 pm

Thanks for the charts as usual Theck. It's much appreciated.

0/53/18 seems to be the way to go once the patch goes live.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Suba » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:08 pm

I haven't had time to mess around with scaling - one question I'd like to investigate is how each of these talents and specs scale with gear, but first I need to update the gear module with more Ulduar gear. If someone would throw together comparable T7 and T8 sets (including off-set items), I'll re-run the simulation to see if anything changes.


What is the gear set you are using in the most recent samples?

Do you want progression oriented gear sets with an emphasis on Avoidance and Stamina?

The majority of that type of gear tends to be more +hit/+Exp oriented than +BV or Higher Str values.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:27 pm

The current gear set is the default one. It's relatively BV-heavy (full T7.25 and several BV off-set items).

I would be fine with a progression set as well though. The important thing is that the sets are comparable - i.e. you're comparing a T7 progression set to a T8 progression set, rather than a T7 block set to a T8 progression set.

The idea is to figure out how much of each stat we gain going from T7->T8, and figure out how that changes the DPS output of each talent spec, in case they scale differently. For example, if one scales very well with STR while another scales better with Hit, and our new gear has lots more STR and no more (or even less) Hit, then that will skew the results.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Steve » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:58 pm

Your latest post saved me tons of work. That's an absolutely huge help for me deciding how to spec should 1/2 SA prove non-viable.

Your contributions to this board have been incredible, Theck. Thanks a ton.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby majiben » Wed Mar 25, 2009 2:58 pm

Head or Head2
Neck or Neck2
Cloak or Cloak2 or Cloak3
Shoulders or Shoulder2
Chest
Bracer or Bracer2
Hands or Hands2
Waist or Waist2
Legs or Legs2
Feet or Feet2
Weapon or Weapon2 or Weapon3 (weapons ilvl listing don't seem right on wowhead)
Shield
Ring or Ring2 or Ring3
Trinket or Trinket2 or Trinket3

I personally think it's too hard and variable to define what a progression set is, not to mention I wouldn't call the set we used for 3.0 testing a progression set. I feel a set comprised of gear that you can get on a standard 10 man or 25 clear is what we should be using and looking at. This would be "progression" gear for hard mode encounters which are much bigger portion of the content. So I feel as long as it doesn't drop from a hard mode encounter and the gear set as a whole doesn't assume full 25 man drops that it is as it should be.

My set would draw entirely from the first and in the case of double slots the first and second.
Last edited by majiben on Wed Mar 25, 2009 6:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Suba » Wed Mar 25, 2009 4:14 pm

I would be fine with a progression set as well though. The important thing is that the sets are comparable - i.e. you're comparing a T7 progression set to a T8 progression set, rather than a T7 block set to a T8 progression set.

The idea is to figure out how much of each stat we gain going from T7->T8, and figure out how that changes the DPS output of each talent spec, in case they scale differently. For example, if one scales very well with STR while another scales better with Hit, and our new gear has lots more STR and no more (or even less) Hit, then that will skew the results.


So just to be clear.

Using progression sets is fine for this exercise so long as we are comparing gear with high stamina and avoidance currently available to similar gear we will obtain in the next tier of raiding, not the actual tier sets themselves.

As I would not be using many of the tier set items in the avoidance/Stam set, and would have more +hit/exp (to the dodge cap and hit cap) than +BV.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Jasari » Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:41 am

Awesome work. Pretty much confirms what I assumed to be true, but it's ALWAYS great to have real numbers to defend spec choices, thanks a lot!
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Thu Mar 26, 2009 8:56 am

Suba wrote:So just to be clear.

Using progression sets is fine for this exercise so long as we are comparing gear with high stamina and avoidance currently available to similar gear we will obtain in the next tier of raiding, not the actual tier sets themselves.

As I would not be using many of the tier set items in the avoidance/Stam set, and would have more +hit/exp (to the dodge cap and hit cap) than +BV.

Well, the analysis could be done either way, it just depends on what question you're asking.

In other words, if what you want to know is "What spec will give me better DPS while boss-tanking in avoidance gear," then you'd want to compare a T7-level avoidance gear set to a T8-level avoidance gear set.

If you're asking, "How does my DPS change by going from 5/5 T7 to 5/5 T8," then you'd want to compare the tier sets directly.

Majiben's point about progression sets is another one - "what spec maximizes my DPS in the gear I'll have while working on hard-mode bosses?"

All of these are interesting questions. Just pick whichever one you find most interesting and suggest two gear sets to compare.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Meloree » Thu Mar 26, 2009 3:42 pm

It's possible, with the latest PTR build, that Seal of Blood is worth looking at again. It appears that Seal procs won't do recoil damage, and the judgements themselves were always pretty anemic for Prot with fast 1h weapon, now they'll be signicantly weaker. 48% weapon damage as holy seems like the seal proc would be extremely strong. 11% ap, 16% sp and 26% weapon damage would be likely to make judgement pretty weak.

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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Varmin » Thu Mar 26, 2009 4:31 pm

On my current spreadsheet, the new SoB seems to be a large increase. Coupled with grabbing the exorcism glyph instead of seal of vengeance, and substituting every other judgement with an exorcism, I'm getting a large TPS increase over SoV. If it's true only the judgement recoils, you would only see a 800-1.6k(crit) recoil every 18s, which is pretty trivial damage on most bosses.

Also consider, that the new block value libram from Ulduar would make judgement replacement even more appealing.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Cidx » Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:01 pm

I think instead of using SoV glyph I'd use SoB glyph for more Mana Regen this could also mean those wanting to go 4/5 Benediction due to the SA change could go back to 3/3 HotC with 1 still in Benediction.

If I understand correctly it's already been pointed out only time with glyph that Exorcism is worth replacing was with Holy Shield so I'd imagine the DPS/TPS still be the same only reason to substitute is to lower the amount of recoil damage from SoB judgements.

I think with this change though DPS/TPS might increase especially since we still have reckoning factoring.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Suba » Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:37 pm

"What spec will give me better DPS while boss-tanking in avoidance gear,"


T8 Ilvl (No socketing for threat, standard enchants, human expertise racial, I always have a Dran in my party, gemming for stamina in most slots) (Glyphs Divine Plea, HoSalv, BoK, LoH, Sense Undead, and SoV)

Shield - Boreal Guard http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45877
Weapon - Titanguard http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45110
Cloak - Cloak of the Makers http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45319
Ring - The Leviathans Coil http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45112
Ring - Platinum Band of Aesir http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45326
Neck - Shard of the Crystal Forest http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45821
Wrist - Mimiron's Inferno Coupling http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45111
Waist - Indestructible Plate Girdle http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45551
Feet - Spiked Death Dealers http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45560
Chest - T8 25 man http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=46173
Leg - T8 25 man http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=46176 (2 piece bonus)
Hands - Gauntlets of the Royal Watch http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45834
Shoulders - Shoulderplates of the Deconstructor http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45251
Helm - Helm of the faceless http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45502
Trinket - Heart of Iron http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=45158
Trinket - Greatness http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=44253
Libram - LoO, or T8 version


T7 Ilvl (No socketing for threat, standard enchants, human expertise racial, I always have a Dran in my party, gemming for stamina in most slots) (Glyphs, Divine Plea, HoSalv, BoK, LoH, Sense Undead, and SoV)

Shield - Wall of Terror http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40400
Weapon - Last Laugh http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40402
Cloak - Platinum Mesh Cloak - http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40722
Ring - Signet of the Impregnable Fortress http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40718
Ring - Sand Worn Band http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40107
Neck - Nexus War Champion Beads http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=44665
Wrist - Bracers of the Unholy Knight http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40306
Waist - Ablative Chitin Girdle http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=39759
Feet - Kyzoc's Ground Stompers http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40743
Chest - Dragonstorm Breastplate http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=44000
Leg - Dragonbrood Legguards http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40446
Hands - T7 25 man http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40580
Shoulders - T7 25 man http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40584 (2 piece bonus)
Helm - Helm of Vital Protection http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40328
Trinket - EoG http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=37220
Trinket - Greatness http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=44253
Libram - LoO http://ptr.wowhead.com/?item=40707#comments
Last edited by Suba on Sat Mar 28, 2009 8:25 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Mavrix » Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:47 pm

Cidx wrote:I think instead of using SoV glyph I'd use SoB glyph for more Mana Regen this could also mean those wanting to go 4/5 Benediction due to the SA change could go back to 3/3 HotC with 1 still in Benediction.



The SoB glyph has been changed and no longer has mana regen effects.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Cidx » Thu Mar 26, 2009 7:01 pm

Mavrix wrote:
Cidx wrote:I think instead of using SoV glyph I'd use SoB glyph for more Mana Regen this could also mean those wanting to go 4/5 Benediction due to the SA change could go back to 3/3 HotC with 1 still in Benediction.



The SoB glyph has been changed and no longer has mana regen effects.


Last I read it gives 11% of damage done to you from SoB in mana and this was the last build before todays. Haven't seen any changes to it from today's build.
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