Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis - WotLK/3.x

[theckhd]

Theck, it appears that a recent nerf to Bryntroll for Retribution Paladins may have some impact upon Protection Paladin mechanics.

Specifically, refreshing and applying Holy Vengeance no longer acts as an opportunity to proc "on hit" abilities. This includes Drain Life from Bryntroll (the intended target of a recent nerf), as well as PPM weapon enchants such as Berserking and Mongoose (collateral damage).

With respect to Protection Paladins this may impact the value of avoidance value expertise (if refreshing HV isn't an "on hit" attack anymore, can it be parried/dodged?) and I expect that the up time on Mongoose will drop substantially (re: Side Calculation - Mongoose uptime).

Do you have a link to this change? I found a blue post where GC mentioned it was "bugged" for ret paladins, but I haven't been able to find the post where he specifically says that HV applications won't proc on-hit or PPM based things.

Or is this based on some outside testing?

[Serv]

tltip,
I just testet judging with SoR with 2/2 JotJ. From the combatlog it seems, that it still proccs 2 times SoR

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Übungsattrappe des Experten wird durch Richturteil der Weisheit von Servellia beeinträchtigt.
Servellia trifft Übungsattrappe des Experten mit Siegel der Rechtschaffenheit für 1 Heiligschaden.(192 Schaden über Tod)
Servellia trifft Übungsattrappe des Experten mit Richturteil der Rechtschaffenheit für 1 Heiligschaden.(2174 Schaden über Tod) (Kritisch)
Übungsattrappe des Experten wird durch Herz des Kreuzfahrers von Servellia beeinträchtigt.
Übungsattrappe des Experten wird durch Richturteil des Gerechten von Servellia beeinträchtigt.
Servellia trifft Übungsattrappe des Experten mit Siegel der Rechtschaffenheit für 1 Heiligschaden.(192 Schaden über Tod)


So again for the translation:
Siegel der Rechtschaffenheit = SoR
Richturteil der Rechtschaffenheit = Judgement of Rightousness

As you can see, the combatlog shows seal damage, judgement damage and a second time the seal damage. This was just by performing a judgement without beeing in meleerange

I'm meeleing the lvl60 dummy right now with SoC and mungo enchanted. I'll give you a parse later.


/edit2:

http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/xm3d ... b6l8v/log/ here you go.
Unfortunatly the log contains the German spellnames, so for Mungoose proccs you gotta filter for "Blitzschnell" and for SoC look for "Siegel des Befehls"

I hope this will help you.

Serv

[Nadir]

Theck, it appears that a recent nerf to Bryntroll for Retribution Paladins may have some impact upon Protection Paladin mechanics.

Specifically, refreshing and applying Holy Vengeance no longer acts as an opportunity to proc "on hit" abilities. This includes Drain Life from Bryntroll (the intended target of a recent nerf), as well as PPM weapon enchants such as Berserking and Mongoose (collateral damage).

With respect to Protection Paladins this may impact the value of avoidance value expertise (if refreshing HV isn't an "on hit" attack anymore, can it be parried/dodged?) and I expect that the up time on Mongoose will drop substantially (re: Side Calculation - Mongoose uptime).

Do you have a link to this change? I found a blue post where GC mentioned it was "bugged" for ret paladins, but I haven't been able to find the post where he specifically says that HV applications won't proc on-hit or PPM based things.

Or is this based on some outside testing?

There has been no specific comment from GC. The hotfix went in shortly after GC's post on Thursday.

Although I don't have Protection specific evidence, I can offer my own testing for Retribution. Both tests were done with the 2H Grievance.

http://www.wowmeteronline.com/combat/de ... #damageout
28% Berserk uptime without Seal of Vengeance

http://www.wowmeteronline.com/combat/de ... #damageout
30% Berserk uptime with Seal of Vengeance

Grievance is a 3.6 speed weapon, so @1 PPM Berserking should have a 27% uptime if only white hits can proc it. If applying and refreshing HV could still proc Berserking, then the expected uptime would be 47%.

There is further confirmation of this change in the EJ Retribution thread.

[steadypal]

hmm so maybe mongoose and blade ward will drop a bit on proc rates? last weeks festergutt 25 my mongoose had a 63% uptime,,,, /sad face

[tlitp]

http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/xm3d318krn6b6l8v/log/ here you go.

Assuming that Servellia used the same weapon as on the armory (FGC, 2.6 base "speed"), the results strongly advocate for multiple procs. Obviously, the sample size is rather small, but the numbers themselves are large enough to eliminate the hypothesis of single procs.

Although I don't have Protection specific evidence, I can offer my own testing for Retribution. Both tests were done with the 2H Grievance.

http://www.wowmeteronline.com/combat/de ... #damageout
28% Berserk uptime without Seal of Vengeance

http://www.wowmeteronline.com/combat/de ... #damageout
28% Berserk uptime with Seal of Vengeance

Again, relatively small sample size, but strong evidence to support the change of HV mechanics.


Thanks, Serv and Nadir.

[steadypal]

ya im looking over past TOC 25 world of logs, and looking at our world of logs from this past thursday, mongoose is proccing twice less,,, 27% on beasts this week,,, compared to 50% previous weeks,,,


i like how bryntroll breaks prot tanking


just put a freaking ICD on its proc or lower its proc chance, why break us FFS

[Awyndel]

I'm really interested to see if that proc nerf thingy is true, and how the proc enchants roll out of the 3.3 equation in the end.

On the topic of librams, I was testing the ap and crit socom ones, but noticed both having horribly low uptimes. So I was wondering for trash tanking, how many mobs it would take for the AP one to outthreat the block value one, since it has 100% uptime on 600 bv.

[tlitp]

Testing the presumed change of the HV mechanics is quite straightforward :
1. Grab a DS, enchant it with Berserking (preferably) or Mongoose.
2. Smack a level 60 dummy for at least 1k swings, using only autoattacks and SoV. Make sure your haste is constant (no parasite procs/buffs).
3. Share your findings.

Really, the only "difficult" part in testing the mechanics of HV is the sheer amount of time dedicated to this task. Sample sizes of >5k swings would be very nice but, realistically, sizes of 1-2k swings will have to do the trick.

[steadypal]

byrntroll axe broke us


paging theck,,, which enchant do we want to use now?



heres 2 logs of mongoose, both 30 minutes one with just autoattack melee no seal, and other is 30 minutes of autoattack with seal of corruption up


mongoose actually procced more times with no seal on, i am very very depressed atm,,, time to go back to accuracy maybe?

seal
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/712d ... details/1/

no seal
http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/as6r ... etails/13/

[theckhd]

Yeah, it's pretty lame that they nerfed us indirectly because of that axe. Doubly so since if it really was considered a "bug," they could have found out about it months ago when we discovered it by reading some of the theorycrafting sites (like us).

In any event, I'll try and update the simulations tomorrow or Monday. I think all this changes is the mongoose uptime calculations and parry haste. That will change the overall results a bit, but I don't think by enough to change any of the conclusions.

In the meantime, my suggestion/prediction for weapon enchants is: Mongoose and Blade Warding fall out of favor, Accuracy regains the top spot for threat, Blood Draining for a more defensive option.

[Kethion]

It may only slightly affect the parry haste calculations because I'm still seeing Blood Corruption being parried on target dummies. They probably just made the seal application unable to trigger procs while keeping it classified as a melee attack.

[tlitp]

To expand on Theck's request, there are a couple of things we'd like to know before running the sims again :

1. Does ShoR proc any seals if running with no points in Judgements of the Just ? If so, which of them and how many seal procs per ShoR ? Does ShoR proc 2 SoR if running with points in JotJ ?
2. Are Reckoning procs capable of seal procs ? If so, which seals and how many per Reck proc ? (again, various old experimental data are available - what we want is retesting in 3.3)

Methodology :

1. Some target dummy smacking (the level 60 ones are good for this task, since they let you ignore hit/exp altogether), making sure that only ShoR is used.
2. Request a duel from a rogue, ask him/her to grab a pair of fast daggers (these ones are ideal due to their low output). Let him/her go wild on you.

Still missing experimental data on this two topics, still asking the community for assistance.

Yeah, it's pretty lame that they nerfed us indirectly because of that axe.

Back when my rogue was active, and even now when that's not the case anymore, I've always thought that Blizzard's position is not at all that appropriate. Having complex (and if not complex, then at least less than intuitive) combat and class-specific mechanics, yet lacking almost entirely official documentation simply puts unnecessary strain on the community/theorycrafters. Having to retest things patch after patch to ensure that Blizzard has not changed mechanics stealthily is but a royal pain in the arse.

OTOH, collateral damage is quite frequent when Blizzard decides to "tweak the numbers".

It may only slightly affect the parry haste calculations because I'm still seeing Blood Corruption being parried on target dummies. They probably just made the seal application unable to trigger procs while keeping it classified as a melee attack.

This appears to be correct, there are several reports that advocate for HV application still following the standard melee attack table for non-damage inflicting specials.

[Nadir]

One thing may help adjust the uptime code a bit towards the upside is that Judgement counts as multiple opportunities to proc Mongoose or Berserking. The first proc opportunity comes from the damaging portion. A known second proc opportunity comes from the Judgement of Wisdom/Light/Justice debuff (Retribution testing on EJ has demonstrated this effect). A possible third proc opporutnity comes from the Judgement of the Just debuff.

Inflated uptime from Judgement can be easily demonstrated with Protection and a 3.6 speed weapon.
http://www.wowmeteronline.com/combat/de ... #damageout
http://www.wowmeteronline.com/combat/de ... #damageout
I apologize for the split log. It's 137 judgements in 1106 seconds. 309 seconds of Berserking uptime (27.9%).

If Judgement were merely a single chance to proc Berserking, then we'd expect a 10.86% Berserking uptime. If Judgement provides two chances to proc Berserking, then we'd expect to see 20.54% uptime. If Judgement provides three chances to proc Berserking, then we'd expect to see 29.17% uptime.

Clearly Judgement is providing at least two chances to proc and the data suggests that there may even be a third chance to proc from Judgements of the Just.

[theckhd]

It may only slightly affect the parry haste calculations because I'm still seeing Blood Corruption being parried on target dummies. They probably just made the seal application unable to trigger procs while keeping it classified as a melee attack.

Ah, that's good news. I was afraid that perhaps they changed it from a melee attack to something else. So then enchant uptimes are really the only thing that will change.

Clearly Judgement is providing at least two chances to proc and the data suggests that there may even be a third chance to proc from Judgements of the Just.

Good information to know, thanks for the testing results.

[theckhd]

Mongoose Uptime - Once More With Feeling

Given the new testing, we have to re-calculate the uptime of PPM-based effects. Holy Vengeance seems to no longer trigger PPM effects, but at the same time Judgement apparently has three chances to trigger it. This should still be a net loss of uptime though.

Revisiting the last post on this topic, the formula for uptime will be:

Uptime = 1 - [(1-s1*t)^N1] * [(1-s2*t)^N2] * [(1-s3*t)^N3] * ....

There are now five ways to proc Mongoose:

• Auto-attacks, subject to all avoidance
• HotR, subject to all avoidance
• Judgement, subject to miss
• Judgement of Wisdom/Light debuff application
• Judgements of the Just debuff application

From the logs Nadir linked, JotJ and JoW are automatically applied if Judgement succeeds (i.e. can't be independently avoided). So there are really only two terms in our product. The first term is easy, and follows the form of the equation above:

• s1 = (1 - miss - dodge - parry), N1 is the number of auto-attacks and HotRs in 15 seconds
  
  However, the Judgement term is really really screwy because of the JoW/JotJ mechanics. Let's look at the possible outcomes of a Judgement. If the Judgement is unsuccessful, we can't get a proc, but if it is successful, there are three attempts to proc the enchant:
  
  

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  Event   Probability     Note
0000    (1-s)           event fails, no chance for a proc
1000    s(1-t)^3        event succeeds, but no proc

1100    st(1-t)^2       event succeeds, one proc occurs
1010    st(1-t)^2       event succeeds, one proc occurs
1001    st(1-t)^2       event succeeds, one proc occurs

1110    s(1-t)t^2       event succeeds, two procs occur
1101    s(1-t)t^2       event succeeds, two procs occur
1011    s(1-t)t^2       event succeeds, two procs occur

1111    st^3            event succeeds, three procs occur

  
  This is a bit of a pain, but you can work out that the probability of not getting a proc at all out of a Judgement event is:
  
  (1-s)+s(1-t)^3 = 1-st(3-3t+t^2)
  
  So rather than the (1-st)^N form, our Judgement factor looks like this:
  
  
  • (1-s2*t(3-3*t+t^2))^N2, s2 = (1-miss), N2 the number of Judgements in 15 seconds

Running the numbers for Mongoose/Berserking, with a 1.7-speed weapon (base) and full raid buffs, we get the following results:

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                   Mongoose     Blade Ward (10s buff)
                  Old   New     Old   New
Hit/Exp capped:   61%   42%     47%   31%
0 Hit/Exp:        46%   34%     34%   24%

Note that for Blade Ward, I'm just calculating uptime based on whether it gets refreshed within the 10 second period, I'm not accounting for consumption of the buff. In other words, those are upper bounds on how good it can be, and it'll be considerably worse in practice (since it will get consumed every so often). I have some code capable of simulating BW uptime, but that'll have to wait until later for now.

Either way, this will be a significant nerf to the uptime of PPM-based effects. I'm going to run the Enchant analysis shortly.