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Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis - WotLK/3.x

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby tlitp » Fri Dec 18, 2009 6:29 am

nastaran wrote:Second, what are your thoughts on Seethe?

Assuming standard 53/18 and 6/9, Seethe's output is outmatched by any and all of its "traditional" counterparts in almost any common situation. Basically, Seethe's boost to Consecration is only relevant if there are 10+ mobs (and they live enough, and they don't require kiting-like maneuvers).

Unlike tBC days, now weapon dps actually matters.
Meloree wrote:Trash is generally level 82, at most. I believe that's 5.4% expertise to hardcap, and 6% hit/spellhit?

Let delta be the absolute difference in levels between the attacker (PC) and the attacked (NPC). For NPCs that fall into 80-82 range, the combat-related variables will be :
Code: Select all
physical hit = 5+0.5*delta
spell hit = 4+delta
dodge = 5+0.5*delta
parry = 5+0.5*delta
block = 5+0.5*delta
glancing = 6+6*delta (unconfirmed)
physical crit suppression = unknown
physical crit conversion = unknown
spell crit suppression = unknown


The combat-related behavior of level 80+ elites is considerably less researched&documented than that of boss-level targets.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby honorshammer » Fri Dec 18, 2009 8:54 am

Do we know how much TPS each point in Conviction and each point of Redoubt gives? It would seem those two are the mostly likely place to steal a point for SoComm, going either 2/3 Redoubt or dropping Conviction.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Arees » Fri Dec 18, 2009 10:05 am

honorshammer wrote:Do we know how much TPS each point in Conviction and each point of Redoubt gives? It would seem those two are the mostly likely place to steal a point for SoComm, going either 2/3 Redoubt or dropping Conviction.


I would drop every single point in conviction before touching redoubt. Remember its a survivability talent too.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby tlitp » Fri Dec 18, 2009 10:49 am

A head-to-head comparison between Redoubt and Conviction is computationally feasible, but not that meaningful. If "what's the best place to drop a talent point out of, so that SoComm can be picked" is the question, the corresponding answer is "it depends". There are many variables at stake.
  • gear-related : do you use a slower hard-hitting weapon or a faster tanking-oriented weapon ? do you use a heavy block set, a threat (heavy on strength, hit, expertise) set, or a "normal" (raid-oriented) one ? do you use high ilvl equipment (more heavier on strength) or low ilvl equipment ? are your defensive stats an issue or not ?
  • environment-related : are you tanking in a heroic dungeon (fewer group buffs/debuffs available, weaker mobs) or a raid ? is Chill of the Throne active or not ? are you optimizing your output for single-target or AoE situations ? if you're tanking in a dungeon or 10 man, is your group heavy on physical dps or on caster dps ? is the specific encounter you're tanking a source of predominantly physical or magical damage ?
  • strategy-related : do you prefer chain pulls and massive trash clusters or a more cautious approach ?

Choosing a place to drop a talent point is anything but straightforward. Basically, there are only two options that are easily sorted out : don't mess with OHWS and DivStr. The rest are all situational.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Awyndel » Fri Dec 18, 2009 10:56 am

Or, if you have a gearset for everything, and do every raid and lots of dungeons every week, and your offspec is pvp and you're too poor to respec every day, and you know how to 969, you drop a point in conviction like the rest of us :)
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Fri Dec 18, 2009 11:09 am

I'm running short on time today, I was hoping to get a bunch of posts up but at this rate I doubt it'll get done until tomorrow. But I wanted to hop in and address a few things:
nastaran wrote:Second, what are your thoughts on Seethe? (http://www.wowhead.com/?item=50210)
It's a 2.2 speed caster weapon, would it be useful in aoe tanking situations where consecration is your primary threat, yet still do decent single target threat cause of the speed?

I'm thinking more in terms of heroics here, tanking trash w/ SoComm, consecration and HoR... mad deeps?

For single targets, Seethe is terrible. See the last section of the Weapon Analysis where I discuss spell damage weapons.

For AoE, I've just put together some code so I have a more permanent answer to these questions. I don't have pretty graphs for you, but even for AoE DPS/TPS spell damage weapons come out behind. Frozen Bonespike, for example, lags the Marrowgar10 mace by 300+ DPS and 700+ TPS.

Meloree wrote:I also have yet to see a whole horde of level 83 mobs. Trash is generally level 82, at most. I believe that's 5.4% expertise to hardcap, and 6% hit/spellhit? It's been a while since I've bothered looking at the caps for trash, but it's a pretty big jump down.

It's 6% for both hits, and 5.5% dodge/parry as per tlitp's formulas. So if you've already got 6% hit from gear, then you wouldn't choose Accuracy. STR or AP would be better in that case.

Shalcker wrote:Considering that at least two of ICC bosses have 1.2s slowed attack speed (Marrowgar and Deathbringer Saurfang, with Saurfang going as high as 0.9s under frenzy effect), and others are likely to follow this pattern, wouldn't that increase both Holy Shield damage/threat and Reckoning/Redoubt uptime?

Yes, though Reckoning uptime will still be pretty abysmal. You need to be getting hit a lot for Reckoning to really be worth much. However, Holy Shield will double in damage output.

I'm considering dropping the base boss swing speed in the simulations from 2 seconds to something between 1-1.5. If anyone has suggestions for a good average number, please speak up. I can re-generate plots pretty quickly and edit the 3.3 analyses that exist if anything changes substantially.

honorshammer wrote:Do we know how much TPS each point in Conviction and each point of Redoubt gives? It would seem those two are the mostly likely place to steal a point for SoComm, going either 2/3 Redoubt or dropping Conviction.

Talent Analysis, Redoubt > Conviction for threat purposes. I generally prefer to drop a weak DPS talent to pick up SoCom, which is why I drop Conviction (I don't run with Reckoning usually, and if I did it would only be in a situation where it's better than Conviction - i.e. Anub add progression).
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby nastaran » Fri Dec 18, 2009 11:58 am

Thanks for the reply, I'll just stick to my 245 Grinder than :)
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby honorshammer » Fri Dec 18, 2009 12:15 pm

Thanks guys, much appreciated.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Awyndel » Fri Dec 18, 2009 1:19 pm

How much strength is the T10 2set bonus approx worth in that t10 progression gear?
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Kihra » Fri Dec 18, 2009 1:52 pm

Awyndel wrote:I also swapped conviction for socomm. For the adds on certain bosses it will be nice.

Bit off topic, doing 6K dps in heroics is great for showing off and all but i'd rather save downtime by using seal of wisdom.


This really isn't an issue. You can SoComm tank the heroics by just chain pulling fast enough to ensure Divine Plea stays up. If you do ever find yourself in situations where Divine Plea is forced to fall off, just cut out Consecrate and you'll be fine.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Wrathy » Fri Dec 18, 2009 2:02 pm

Kihra wrote:
Awyndel wrote:I also swapped conviction for socomm. For the adds on certain bosses it will be nice.

Bit off topic, doing 6K dps in heroics is great for showing off and all but i'd rather save downtime by using seal of wisdom.


This really isn't an issue. You can SoComm tank the heroics by just chain pulling fast enough to ensure Divine Plea stays up. If you do ever find yourself in situations where Divine Plea is forced to fall off, just cut out Consecrate and you'll be fine.


Yeah I rarely run out of mana. It all depends on your gear level and your healers ability to maintain their mana pool. As long as you healer has enough mana, Sanctuary should provide you with more than enough mana to keep you topped off. If you keep dropping too low on your mana pool, remove consecrate from your rotation. I know this is a bit counter intuitive for an AoE trash pack, but the fact that you have SoComm and HotR is more than enough to get 5 to 6 mobs stuck to you.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Kihra » Fri Dec 18, 2009 2:10 pm

Awyndel wrote:How much strength is the T10 2set bonus approx worth in that t10 progression gear?


Assuming Theck factored the bonus into his numbers, he put HoR at 1957 TPS. If you assume that number was boosted by +20% already, then the 20% contribution is ~326 TPS.

Theck also listed Str per 10 points as being 29.23 TPS. This would make the set bonus worth approximately 111 Str.

This isn't completely accurate though, since altering Strength changes the relative TPS of all the abilities.

I'd just ballpark it at ~100 Str. :)
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby theckhd » Fri Dec 18, 2009 2:12 pm

Kihra wrote:This isn't completely accurate though, since altering Strength changes the relative TPS of all the abilities.

I'd just ballpark it at ~100 Str. :)

Yeah, I think a ballpark of 100-110 STR is a good estimate.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby Iselian » Fri Dec 18, 2009 7:30 pm

theckhd wrote:
honorshammer wrote:Do we know how much TPS each point in Conviction and each point of Redoubt gives? It would seem those two are the mostly likely place to steal a point for SoComm, going either 2/3 Redoubt or dropping Conviction.

Talent Analysis, Redoubt > Conviction for threat purposes. I generally prefer to drop a weak DPS talent to pick up SoCom, which is why I drop Conviction (I don't run with Reckoning usually, and if I did it would only be in a situation where it's better than Conviction - i.e. Anub add progression).


I always attribute crit and threat to avoidance and survivability; it can be a great boost over the norm, but it's complete hit or miss. You either dodge the whole attack, or not, never in between. Critting is the same way towards threat; you'll either crit or you won't, never a half-crit.

Redoubt is nice because it's a consistent addition to a spell you cast (theoretically) every 6 seconds. On longer fights of course you'll see conviction even out to the paper doll percentage, but there's no guarantee that for the Deathwhisper or Gunship adds you'll have that crit.
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Re: Theck's MATLAB TPS analysis (A Jonesy derivative work)

Postby tlitp » Sat Dec 19, 2009 3:26 am

theckhd wrote:Talent Analysis, Redoubt > Conviction for threat purposes.

I think Theck never actually explained one of the subtle aspects of these MATLAB sims, so I'll try to cover it briefly : almost all the code written so far uses averages and it's fully deterministic. This means that, for a specific set of given input variables/parameters, there is one and only one output (be it an uptime, a metric or anything else).

On the topic at hand : we have some numbers. And they show that 1 point in Redoubt improves the overall threat output more than 1 point in Conviction. But this is true for a very particular set of variables and conditions, i.e. a given gear set, a given raid environment (buffs/debuffs), a given encounter (the PC attacks precisely one boss-level NPC, and it is attacked in return by the same boss-level NPC; the "time on target" is precisely 100%) and so on. Where I'm getting at : what holds true for a specific set of input vars/params may not for another set, so one should really think "out of the box". Following blindly (sorry if it's a bit harsh) some numbers posted by Theck or anyone else, without understanding how they are obtained and what's their relevance, is not at all very productive.

Please keep in mind that, by default, Theck's generic analysis is based on a Patchwerk-style 25man encounter (unless other situation is stated explicitly).
Iselian wrote:Redoubt is nice because it's a consistent addition to a spell you cast (theoretically) every 6 seconds.

Redoubt has one static and one dynamic component. While the static one is time-invariant, the dynamic one is not. In other words : the blocking value is a "consistent" metric, but the blocking chance is stochastic. Blocking itself should never be considered "consistent" mitigation, and it's not related to the traditional EH metric.

One might argue that things change a bit when being block-capped (and they do), but that merely makes blocking a conditional mitigation. Damned purists... :mrgreen:
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