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Mitigation vs. Avoidance

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

Moderators: Fridmarr, Worldie, Aergis, theckhd

Postby Aergis » Tue Apr 24, 2007 2:59 pm

Just for fun, here's some examples from the tanking sim on the maulgar preset.

hp : 17000
armor : 14000
miss : 10
dodge : 20
parry : 16
block : 20
block val : 250


-----------------------------------
Total table for 50 fights.
-----------------------------------
Miss rate : 11.02
Dodge rate : 21.8
Parry rate : 15.28
Block rate : 61.02
Crush rate : 0.17
-----------------------------------
Avg length of fight : 2.96 minutes.
Avg incoming dps : 1794.49
-----------------------------------
Spike death : 0%
OOM death: 100%

Ok, lets try increasing dodge by 10% and at the cost of 1000 hp.

hp : 16000
armor : 14000
miss : 10
dodge : 30
parry : 16
block : 20
block val : 250

-----------------------------------
Total table for 50 fights.
-----------------------------------
Miss rate : 11.47
Dodge rate : 32.42
Parry rate : 15.89
Block rate : 51.47
Crush rate : 0.14
-----------------------------------
Avg length of fight : 2.3 minutes.
Avg incoming dps : 1518.92
-----------------------------------
Spike death : 6%
OOM death: 94%

Lower incoming dps by 2000 but 6% spike death from the presumably low chance that multiple hits / special attacks will not be dodged. Let's try increasing dodge by another 10% at the cost of only 1000 more HP.


hp : 15000
armor : 14000
miss : 10
dodge : 40
parry : 16
block : 20
block val : 250


-----------------------------------
Total table for 50 fights.
-----------------------------------
Miss rate : 10.77
Dodge rate : 44.03
Parry rate : 16.57
Block rate : 39.62
Crush rate : 0.01
-----------------------------------
Avg length of fight : 3.09 minutes.
Avg incoming dps : 1168.05
-----------------------------------
Spike death : 30%
OOM death: 70%

Ouch, almost no crushing blows and super low incoming dps and an effective dodge of 44% ( 71.5% total avoidance... ), but 30% spike deaths... Even increasing dodge that high we cannot go to 15,000 hp.

Lets try going back to our original example and increasing armor by 2000 and dodge by 5% at the cost of 1000 hp.

hp : 16000
armor : 16000
miss : 10
dodge : 25
parry : 16
block : 20
block val : 250


-----------------------------------
Total table for 50 fights.
-----------------------------------
Miss rate : 11.71
Dodge rate : 25.89
Parry rate : 16.91
Block rate : 54.26
Crush rate : 0.02
-----------------------------------
Avg length of fight : 4.3 minutes.
Avg incoming dps : 1484.01
-----------------------------------
Spike death : 0%
OOM death: 100%

0 spikes and reduces about the same incoming dps as the first example of going to 30% dodge and 14000 armor, but look at the time increase. It's a full 2 mins longer ( almost double ) before healers run out of mana... This is what we mean by armor increases the value of HP non-linearly. While the damage reduction is linear, it's effect on each hp is not.

For theorycrafting sake, lets push armor by another 1000 and hp 1000.

hp : 17000
armor : 17000
miss : 10
dodge : 25
parry : 16
block : 20
block val : 250


-----------------------------------
Total table for 50 fights.
-----------------------------------
Miss rate : 10.7
Dodge rate : 27.43
Parry rate : 17.12
Block rate : 53.6
Crush rate : 0
-----------------------------------
Avg length of fight : 4.47 minutes.
Avg incoming dps : 1415.62
-----------------------------------
Spike death : 0%
OOM death: 100%

Yep, futher increases time before healers go oom by another 20 seconds as well as reduce incoming dps futher.

Let's try lowering armor back to 14000 and increasing block val by 750

hp : 17000
amor : 14000
miss : 10
dodge : 25
parry : 16
block : 20
block val : 1000

-----------------------------------
Total table for 50 fights.
-----------------------------------
Miss rate : 11.34
Dodge rate : 26.93
Parry rate : 16.78
Block rate : 53.67
Crush rate : 0.17
-----------------------------------
Avg length of fight : 4.47 minutes.
Avg incoming dps : 1419.54
-----------------------------------
Spike death : 0%
OOM death: 100%

Wow, almost exactly the same.... 3000 armor looks like equal to 750 block value, or 1000 armor equals 250 block value. Neat.
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Postby DurWrathi » Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:06 pm

Aergis wrote:3000 armor looks like equal to 750 block value, or 1000 armor equals 250 block value. Neat.


Now this is interesting. Consider those numbers and now look at a trinket like the Gnomeregan Auto-Blocker (http://www.wowhead.com/?item=29387#00z). When you activate that trinket, your getting +254 block value (equip+use bonus), or about 1000 armor worth of mitigation according to Aergis' numbers. Given the information brought to light in this thread, would the Auto-Blocker be worth it over an avoidance trinket like Pocket Watch? (http://www.wowhead.com/?item=28528#00Rz)
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Postby Aergis » Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:21 pm

I've yet to be able to figure out a good comparison to dodge to armor/hp. It's pretty intertwined, and tricky to say something like 1% dodge = 500 armor AND 500 hp, or 1000 armor alone, or 1000 HP.

Maybe it's too tough to determine since many factors like attack speed and damage per hit affect the results.
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Postby kurros » Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:24 pm

Aergis wrote:Ouch, almost no crushing blows and super low incoming dps and an effective dodge of 44% ( 71.5% total avoidance... ), but 30% spike deaths...


I haven't yet read the thread about the tanking sim, so maybe I am missing something obvious, but doesn't this go against everything that paladins have been talking about as far as crushing blows?

Based on what I see, it shows that with 3k more hp but 17% crushing blows you can tank a lot better than you can by giving up some hp to go (nearly) crushing-immune. This doesn't really make sense to me.
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Postby Dreamcrusher » Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:27 pm

DurWrathi wrote:
Aergis wrote:3000 armor looks like equal to 750 block value, or 1000 armor equals 250 block value. Neat.


Now this is interesting. Consider those numbers and now look at a trinket like the Gnomeregan Auto-Blocker (http://www.wowhead.com/?item=29387#00z). When you activate that trinket, your getting +254 block value (equip+use bonus), or about 1000 armor worth of mitigation according to Aergis' numbers. Given the information brought to light in this thread, would the Auto-Blocker be worth it over an avoidance trinket like Pocket Watch? (http://www.wowhead.com/?item=28528#00Rz)


Well, using the 1k armor = 250 block value calculation...


Adamantine Figurine > Auto-blocker?
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Postby Aergis » Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:35 pm

Based on what I see, it shows that with 3k more hp but 17% crushing blows you can tank a lot better than you can by giving up some hp to go (nearly) crushing-immune. This doesn't really make sense to me.


Not sure what you mean. Where are you getting 17% crushing? All of the examples I put into the sim had > 102.4% total mitigation, and all of the results show less than 1% crushings were taken ( from the 2.5 weapon speed + special attacks, the rare chance that you block 4 in 10 seconds instead of dodge / parry / miss one of them ).
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Postby kurros » Tue Apr 24, 2007 5:36 pm

High king on our maintank (warrior, not paladin):
regular hit 5.5k
arcing smash 8k
mighty blow 7k

Raid buffed, our warrior has 17k hp, 20k with last stand.

This is the "worst case scenario" I was talking about, if the warrior doesn't avoid any of those 3 attacks he simply dies, no reasonable gear can make up 4.5k hp.

(And I am fully aware you could probably reach 22k hp with SSC and black temple gear, but for a warrior who is doing gruul and doesn't have any gear beyownd karazhan, I'm pretty sure 21k is impossible.)
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Postby Aergis » Tue Apr 24, 2007 6:38 pm

Not sure why you switched topics a bit and didn't answer the question of what you were previously asking about 17% crushing blows.

But I don't think he can arcing smash and mightyblow at the same time. He also can do neither while whirlwinding. That means max same second damage would be 12.5k or 13.5k, not 22k.

I can guarantee he cannot do all three abilities if you position him with his back to the wall instead of yours. Mighty blow will throw you across the room, avoiding a few hits for a few seconds, regular or special even if he can in fact use arcing smash right after a mightyblow.
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Postby kurros » Tue Apr 24, 2007 6:57 pm

Aergis wrote:Not sure why you switched topics a bit and didn't answer the question of what you were previously asking about 17% crushing blows.

But I don't think he can arcing smash and mightyblow at the same time. He also can do neither while whirlwinding. That means max same second damage would be 12.5k or 13.5k, not 22k.

I can guarantee he cannot do all three abilities if you position him with his back to the wall instead of yours. Mighty blow will throw you across the room, avoiding a few hits for a few seconds, regular or special even if he can in fact use arcing smash right after a mightyblow.


Didn't mean to change the question, like I said earlier I am trying to get some info from real raids tonight.

I obviously misunderstood the crushing chance in your post re: the simulation, but that brings up some other questions. I'll have to come back to it later because I am still raiding with my guild.


That combo DID occur, it killed our tank on a real high king attempt.

Not sure if your positioning change would really change anything, because the mighty blow occured last.
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Postby Aergis » Tue Apr 24, 2007 7:13 pm

I've tanked him a few times and that combo has never occurred. I have seen the infamous reg hit + arcing smash, and it only killed me once ( don't think healers were expecting that, they started topping me off in the last seconds before arcing smash would happen, just in case ). I've also never heard of anyone having that happen to them.

However, if it does happen it must be a very very low chance. This example isn't very well suited for stacking avoidance though, because like we've seen, increasing dodge reduces HP, and this is a supremely rare worst case scenario. To try and build up dodge just to avoid something that is this rare seems like a bad idea given the other benefits of hp / armor we've seen.

For example, 30% dodge with 16k hp or 25% dodge with 17k hp. The extra 5% isn't even guaranteed to help you in this extreme scenario while the 17k hp helps the entire fight and gains more benefit from armor for the full fight.
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Postby Kathryn » Tue Apr 24, 2007 9:58 pm

Aergis wrote:The extra 5% isn't even guaranteed to help you in this extreme scenario while the 17k hp helps the entire fight and gains more benefit from armor for the full fight.


I guess that's what i was trying to explain but in a way less friednly explanation filled with too many numbers >.<;
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Postby Kathryn » Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:01 pm

Aergis wrote:Wow, almost exactly the same.... 3000 armor looks like equal to 750 block value, or 1000 armor equals 250 block value. Neat.


I told you guys i wasn't crazy when i said that with T5, and assorted pieces you can block for 800 and you still have over 20% dodge and about 17k HP 15.5k Armor and uncrushable.

And you are a fricking Rock... Blocking 8 times in a row on PTR, for 800 each (1000 when /use the Autoblocker for 20sec each 2min) Makes for a LOT of mitigation.
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Postby DurWrathi » Wed Apr 25, 2007 8:29 am

Kathryn wrote:
Aergis wrote:Wow, almost exactly the same.... 3000 armor looks like equal to 750 block value, or 1000 armor equals 250 block value. Neat.


I told you guys i wasn't crazy when i said that with T5, and assorted pieces you can block for 800 and you still have over 20% dodge and about 17k HP 15.5k Armor and uncrushable.

And you are a fricking Rock... Blocking 8 times in a row on PTR, for 800 each (1000 when /use the Autoblocker for 20sec each 2min) Makes for a LOT of mitigation.


Would you be willing to list the gear set up your using to achieve this? I don't doubt you, just curious to see how its being done.
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Postby kurros » Wed Apr 25, 2007 9:06 am

I played around with the simulator, neat little program, but I don't think it is 100% accurate.

For example, you showed going from high hp to high avoidance increased time to OOM at the cost of an increased chance of spike death. Well, there is more than one way to interpret that. One way is that going oom at 2.3 minutes might be a wipe, while 3 minutes might be enough for a kill. 30% chance of a spike death sounds bad sure, but that means a 70% chance of not getting one and killing the boss, vs wiping at 2.3 minutes every single time with a mitigation tank. I mean you assume that OOM = a boss kill due to healers potting, but I can just as easily assume a spike death doesn't occur because the tank pops last stand or shield wall or healthstone+potion etc.

The main issue is a lack of any kind of reactive healing or trinkets etc. Earth shield is an amazing spell at preventing bursts, because it auto-heals instantly on the first hit, prayer of mending does the same with a longer cooldown. A shaman or druid healer has nature's swiftness and the druid likely has swiftmend as well. PWS, while weak compared to natures swiftness, can make the difference between a dead tank and a living tank. There are a lot of "burst healing" spells available that can prevent a spike death.


I will concede that with brainless healers casting slow heals every second stacking hp/mitigation is probably the way to go, but luckily for us tanks not all of our healers are brainless =) Don't think I am criticizing your simulator, it would be very difficult to add in all the possible variables involved.
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Postby Lore » Wed Apr 25, 2007 9:13 am

30% chance of spike death sounds horrible when you can make it a 0% chance of spike death by getting more hit points.
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