Mitigation vs. Avoidance

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Postby Fridmarr » Wed Apr 25, 2007 9:23 am

Kathryn wrote:
Aergis wrote:Wow, almost exactly the same.... 3000 armor looks like equal to 750 block value, or 1000 armor equals 250 block value. Neat.


I told you guys i wasn't crazy when i said that with T5, and assorted pieces you can block for 800 and you still have over 20% dodge and about 17k HP 15.5k Armor and uncrushable.

And you are a fricking Rock... Blocking 8 times in a row on PTR, for 800 each (1000 when /use the Autoblocker for 20sec each 2min) Makes for a LOT of mitigation.


Indeed, with the new holy shield, block value becomes huge. I was hoping that a change to redoubt would include some sort of block value bonus, even if it's on a proc rate as the added block % is now useless. You also have a lot more flexibilty in stacking block value over armor.
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Postby kurros » Wed Apr 25, 2007 9:26 am

Also, the fight you simulated was very favorable for mitigation/hp stacking. Take for instance this type of fight:

hp 22000
armor 14000
miss 11
dodge 16
parry 16
block 22
block value 280

2 healers
9000 mana
1200 +healing
10 spell crit
190 mana/5

boss
attack speed 1 (prince malch duelwielding)
dmg 8000
special 16000 (thrash)
special time 6

Ran it 30 times, 3 deaths due to healer oom and 27 due to spike damage.
The healer oom deaths occured less than 2 minutes into the fight.

Subtract 4800 hp, add 17% dodge. This is based around the ratio of 8 dodge rating for 120 hp, swapping a 12 stam gem for an 8 dodge rating gem.

Ran it 30 times, 13 deaths due to healer oom, 17 due to spike damage. HOWEVER, some of deaths due to spike damage on the second (avoidance tank) run took longer than the oom deaths on the first run, so they would actually be superior results. The healer oom deaths were pretty random, anywhere from just under 2 mins to over 4 minutes, average around 3 minutes or so.

This is a case where avoidance is clearly superior to stacked hp, so I think it really just depends on the situation.
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Postby kurros » Wed Apr 25, 2007 9:28 am

Lore wrote:30% chance of spike death sounds horrible when you can make it a 0% chance of spike death by getting more hit points.


Not if it's a 100% chance of an oom death...
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Postby Lore » Wed Apr 25, 2007 9:49 am

kurros wrote:Also, the fight you simulated was very favorable for mitigation/hp stacking. Take for instance this type of fight:

hp 22000
armor 14000
miss 11
dodge 16
parry 16
block 22
block value 280

2 healers
9000 mana
1200 +healing
10 spell crit
190 mana/5

boss
attack speed 1 (prince malch duelwielding)
dmg 8000
special 16000 (thrash)
special time 6

Ran it 30 times, 3 deaths due to healer oom and 27 due to spike damage.
The healer oom deaths occured less than 2 minutes into the fight.

Subtract 4800 hp, add 17% dodge. This is based around the ratio of 8 dodge rating for 120 hp, swapping a 12 stam gem for an 8 dodge rating gem.

Ran it 30 times, 13 deaths due to healer oom, 17 due to spike damage. HOWEVER, some of deaths due to spike damage on the second (avoidance tank) run took longer than the oom deaths on the first run, so they would actually be superior results. The healer oom deaths were pretty random, anywhere from just under 2 mins to over 4 minutes, average around 3 minutes or so.

This is a case where avoidance is clearly superior to stacked hp, so I think it really just depends on the situation.


Yeah, no doubt the situation depends greatly. I will point out though that you used a terrible low block value, most tanks at that point should be pushing or exceeding 400 block value. Also, I don't know that 22k hit points is a reasonable start value - that's well beyond the point where even a mit tank SHOULD start building avoidance. I'm not sure the 8k number is correct either, the two tanks I just asked (I haven't tanked him personally, always worked out that me on heals made more sense) say he hits for 3-4k non-crushing. That's a pretty huge difference.

Also, your original example is crushable even with HS up :P
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Postby Lore » Wed Apr 25, 2007 9:50 am

kurros wrote:
Lore wrote:30% chance of spike death sounds horrible when you can make it a 0% chance of spike death by getting more hit points.


Not if it's a 100% chance of an oom death...


As has been said many, many times in this thread: oom deaths can be potted through, spike deaths cannot.

An oom death after 2 minutes means your healers are able to pot reliably and keep you up.
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Postby Lore » Wed Apr 25, 2007 9:53 am

If I change your example to the following:

18000 hp
14000 armor
11 miss
16 dodge
16 parry
25 block
400 block value

4000 base damage
8000 special damage

and leave the rest the same, every single death is > 2 minutes due to healer mana. That's a pottable amount.

It'd be nice if we could get mana pots added into the sim somehow.
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Postby kurros » Wed Apr 25, 2007 10:06 am

Lore wrote: Also, I don't know that 22k hit points is a reasonable start value - that's well beyond the point where even a mit tank SHOULD start building avoidance. I'm not sure the 8k number is correct either, the two tanks I just asked (I haven't tanked him personally, always worked out that me on heals made more sense) say he hits for 3-4k non-crushing. That's a pretty huge difference.

Also, your original example is crushable even with HS up :P



Like I said in other threads, tanks don't really have a lot of cohices when it comes to gear, it's not like we really get to pick between avoidance or hp gear for each slot.

In reality the biggest spread is probably like giving up 1440 hp for some 5% dodge. But since I don't have the patience to run the simulator for 1000 times to get an accurate average, I exaggerated the differences.

As far as prince damage, the tanks you talk to see how hard he hits after armor. The number in the simulator is before armor.

And the special is really 2 attacks at once for 8k each, not 1 attack for 16k, but the limitations of the simulator don't allow for that...
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Postby Fridmarr » Wed Apr 25, 2007 10:11 am

I really think at this point it's a lot of fine tuning. Stam + Mitigation is great for dealing with spike dmg, and next patch we'll be the least spikey of the tanking classes because we'll likely block every hit. So our spikes will typically come from specials that the boss throws at us in close succession. As opposed to a CB or the dreaded double CB.

Avoidance can lower overall dmg taken and adds an element of luck to avoiding spikes in the first place, but doesn't necessarily equate to survibility because of healing mechanics. However, with the duration of many boss fights putting a strain on the mana pools, it will allow the healers to heal a bit less.

Obviously, you'll need both to a degree, but you'll reach a point in mitigation where it's tough to add more because armor values don't change much on gear of the same ilevel, which leaves you to stacking block and stam, without gimping your avoidance. It's harder for us to gimp our avoidance and remain uncrushable unless it's achieved via block rating, our blessing and curse atm. Then again, stacking avoidance typically results in reductions of stam so it's a fine balancing act. To some degree socketed armor is a bit of a help, especially since socket bonuses are typically very minor anyhow.

In any event, this thread is great! Kudos to all who have contributed.
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Postby Lore » Wed Apr 25, 2007 10:17 am

kurros wrote:As far as prince damage, the tanks you talk to see how hard he hits after armor. The number in the simulator is before armor.


Ah, you're right. My mistake.

Either way we seem to have come to some sort of agreement, I think.
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Postby Fridmarr » Wed Apr 25, 2007 10:18 am

Lore wrote:As has been said many, many times in this thread: oom deaths can be potted through, spike deaths cannot.

An oom death after 2 minutes means your healers are able to pot reliably and keep you up.


I don't know about that, healers relying heavily on pots after just 2 minutes are not likely to be of help for more than another 20 seconds. I mean a pot gives what, 2.5k mana? In the first 2 minutes of the fight, they probably when through 11k mana. Pots are not going to keep up at that point. I don't know how much regen and such is factored into the calcuator, but a 2min oom of all of your healers is likely not going to be saved by pots if the encounter lasts even 1 more minute.
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Postby Lore » Wed Apr 25, 2007 10:21 am

Fridmarr wrote:
Lore wrote:As has been said many, many times in this thread: oom deaths can be potted through, spike deaths cannot.

An oom death after 2 minutes means your healers are able to pot reliably and keep you up.


I don't know about that, healers relying heavily on pots after just 2 minutes are not likely to be of help for more than another 20 seconds. I mean a pot gives what, 2.5k mana? In the first 2 minutes of the fight, they probably when through 11k mana. Pots are not going to keep up at that point. I don't know how much regen and such is factored into the calcuator, but a 2min oom of all of your healers is likely not going to be saved by pots if the encounter lasts even 1 more minute.


Eh, to a degree. There's a whole lot of variables there aside from just pots too... innervates, mana tides, shadow priests, etc. My point was that there's lots of ways to bring healer mana up, but not a lot of ways to avoid spike damage.
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Postby Fridmarr » Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:11 am

Lore wrote:
Fridmarr wrote:
Lore wrote:As has been said many, many times in this thread: oom deaths can be potted through, spike deaths cannot.

An oom death after 2 minutes means your healers are able to pot reliably and keep you up.


I don't know about that, healers relying heavily on pots after just 2 minutes are not likely to be of help for more than another 20 seconds. I mean a pot gives what, 2.5k mana? In the first 2 minutes of the fight, they probably when through 11k mana. Pots are not going to keep up at that point. I don't know how much regen and such is factored into the calcuator, but a 2min oom of all of your healers is likely not going to be saved by pots if the encounter lasts even 1 more minute.


Eh, to a degree. There's a whole lot of variables there aside from just pots too... innervates, mana tides, shadow priests, etc. My point was that there's lots of ways to bring healer mana up, but not a lot of ways to avoid spike damage.


Fair enough, and I stated that I don't know what regen is factored into the calculator, but I'm still guessing that burning through 10k mana in 2 min, is going to cause some oom regardless of regen in the next 2 min. The other factor is that (I would assume) this is ALL of your healers being oom in 2 mintues which is really quite significant. Normally you have a single healer going oom and that stresses the other healers but can be dealth with, all of them going oom is another story.

I wouldn't gear for that per say, but it can't be ignored either. It's nice when you dodge/parry a few in a row and not only are healers not using mana, but their regen goes up a good bit, so it's a two fold gain. This happens on nightbane a lot actually, his attacks are pretty slow, so a few misses and you can go a good 10 seconds without taking much dmg.
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Postby Kathryn » Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:15 am

The preset healers on the Maulgar preset in the Tanksim has healers at 1000 +heal and 100 mp5. That's very weak too.

Set it to 1300 + heal and 175 mp5 and watch oom time jump to between 5-10 mins..

In my guild 1300 +heal is an average of our healers.. some are at 1100 some at 1500... most at 1300ish +heal. and 175mp5 isnt hard to get with BoW.

If you are gonna input stats on the tank to reflect Flask / Elixirs / Stoneshield pot... Buff your healers too a little..

Just from consumables and Bow you can get (currently) about a little over 100 Mp5. And it has tremendous power. A 2400 mana pot each 2min = 100 Mp5 too, more if better Mana pot.. Virtually you can get about 300-325 Mp5 raid buffed on healers.. check how long before oom with that much Mp5..
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Postby Aergis » Wed Apr 25, 2007 12:02 pm

Ok, here's why I built it this way. There are many ways for healers to regen mana as has been said, but also includes a healer rotation if need be. One is actively not healing to gain the full benefit of spirit + mp5, the rest are healing. One person gets low, he becoems the out healer while the one resting starts healing again.

While there are ways around healer mana, there is no way around spike death. How are you going to hit last stand / shield wall / pot / trinket or whatever when your at 80% health and everything looks fine, then a bad luck double attack comes and you're simply dead? There is no time to pot, just like there is no time to heal through it.

I also didn't get into the potting of healers because it is really irrelevant. There is no DPS on the boss, so there is no end to the simulation until the tank dies. If I added pots / manatides / innrevates, the simulation would just go forever. You can do the same by increasing the healer mp5 to like 500. It will just sit there for 15 seconds and error out.

We know from in game healers will always get low on mana. We know that they have their own ways of getting around it. We know that a spike death is where healers go "I was 9/10ths of the way through the heal and you died out of nowhere". We have no way of getting around that. So I'd like to build my gearset around the things that are probable to happen, as well as have workarounds that people are accustomed to doing.
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Postby Aergis » Wed Apr 25, 2007 1:03 pm

For example, you showed going from high hp to high avoidance increased time to OOM at the cost of an increased chance of spike death.


Yes, and then in the next example I increase armor to 16k and hp to 16k, and the result is 0% spike deaths and DOUBLE the length of the fights. This should have helped clarify that 2000 armor is better in the fight than 10% dodge. Not only do you spike less, your HP lasts longer as a side effect of the increased armor.

boss
attack speed 1 (prince malch duelwielding)
dmg 8000
special 16000 (thrash)
special time 6


There's a couple interesting things with this. First, his thrash happens more randomly, and can take like 25 seconds before it happens again, so the average would be more like doing the special time at 10-12 seconds.

Second, the 16000 you put in assumes a double attack independant of his normal attack. It actually adds a single attack on top of his normal attack. The way you put it in he's doing a full damage triple attack every six seconds like this : 8000, 8000, 8000, 8000, 8000, 24000, repeat. That's a much larger spike than he really does.

Changing your boss numbers to
atk speed : 1
base damage : 8000
special damage : 8000
special time : 6 seconds

results in this

Avg length of fight : 1.4 minutes.
Avg incoming dps : 2502.15
-----------------------------------
Spike death : 2%
OOM death: 98%


For the sake of testing, using everything the same but dropping HP to 17,000 and increasing dodge to 25% results in this:

Avg length of fight : 1.75 minutes.
Avg incoming dps : 2114.06
-----------------------------------
Spike death : 0%
OOM death: 100%


Small increase in time, and 2% less spike potential. Fast attacking dual bosses are also the types of fights we are specialists at already, yet we are told we cannot tank maulgar / gruul / hydross etc. Adding avoidance over hp helps this fight, romulo, and moroes. After those 3 fights, it hinders more than helps in the rest of the fights, kara and beyond.

I used to believe in avoidance the same way you do Kurros. I actually went so far as to overwrite all my +12 stam gems and put in +8 dodge. Buffed on prince that night I had about 15k hp and 38.5% dodge. It went amazingly smooth compared to the previous kills where I had 17k hp and 32% dodge. And then we went to nightbane, whom we had already killed 3 or 4 times. Our warlock had to go, so I lost the imp buff, putting me around 14k hp. It was literally impossible to kill him. Several times I would be at 80% hp and just be dead the next second. There was nothing I nor the healers could do to fix it. We called it a night after 5 tank spike deaths.

Immediatley after I ported to IF and bought out like 12 solid stars of elune and overwrote every single +8 dodge ( except on timewardens legs ). The next night we did nightbane again, this time at almost 18k hp and about 28% dodge buffed. We killed it first try very cleanly.

Ultimately there are not enough fights that require that much avoidance, however many that require XX amount of HP. Also even the prince fight is perfectly doable without stacking huge avoidance, and adding that much makes it only a bit easier. If there were fights like patchwerk were it simply was impossible to tank without a min of 35% dodge or something, then we would have a solid tanking niche. Currently we don't, and that is also a larger scale issue with paladin tanking all around.

What we can do in the meantime is try to be the best tank we can all around, and that means stacking HP and mitigation for the majority of bosses. I would never like to see my unbuffed dodge go below 20%, but I don't want to repeat the same mistake of pushing it to 28.5% unbuffed at the cost of stam.
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