Reckoning and Parries

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Postby Vanifae » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:47 am

I am not convinced.

I see evidence, but really Burst damage is Burst damage. It happens, it happens even when you don't parry. It happened to me on prince where he chewed through my Holy Shield and then pounded me with two crushes in a row.

Not attacking? Yeah I suppose if you have a very comfortable lead, but I am not seeing that. I am hammering it all out when I raid tank, I expect my DPS to be doing the same, I am usually comfortable ahead, but it can always be better.

I am not going to defend reckoning and say it is super awesome, it is pretty decent; but now that this talk is going into the direction of let's not attack sometimes and lets choose slower and slower weapons... well I am not sure if that works for me as a Paladin tank. I don't have Seal of Vengeance so it gives me very few benefits.

If you have Holy Shield up you can't be crushed so it will just be another regular, probably blocked hit coming in very fast; but I see where some people are coming from again, I just think we are getting a situation that has diminishing returns. Maybe I am stodgy and stuck in my ways but I am not buying into this, at least the extreme some of you are taking it.

I think at some point your healers need to be taken into the equation.
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Postby Teah » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:59 am

I found switching to SoL/JoL while tanking prince phase2 helpful.. but I don't agree with this not attacking business. Furthermore Prince himself is not a hard hitting boss, but a fast hitting boss. This means you can easily have just 1 shaman heal you the entire phase 2. Granted said shaman has to be good but I have had it happen before.

Now when you talk about Gruul or HKM it has more merit. I still believe not giving up a portion of our threat can still be viewed as minimizing more damage. At Gruul himself the faster your threat is the faster your DPS can go and the less damage you take period. You will take more damage killing him at grow 15 then you do if you kill him at grow 10. While I don't really care to defend Reckoning myself, I think simply not attacking is extremely silly.

Giving up a good portion of our threat to "minimize spike damage" that doesn't happen every swing just seems silly to me.
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Postby Fridmarr » Mon Sep 17, 2007 12:29 pm

Teah wrote:I found switching to SoL/JoL while tanking prince phase2 helpful.. but I don't agree with this not attacking business. Furthermore Prince himself is not a hard hitting boss, but a fast hitting boss. This means you can easily have just 1 shaman heal you the entire phase 2. Granted said shaman has to be good but I have had it happen before.

Now when you talk about Gruul or HKM it has more merit. I still believe not giving up a portion of our threat can still be viewed as minimizing more damage. At Gruul himself the faster your threat is the faster your DPS can go and the less damage you take period. You will take more damage killing him at grow 15 then you do if you kill him at grow 10. While I don't really care to defend Reckoning myself, I think simply not attacking is extremely silly.

Giving up a good portion of our threat to "minimize spike damage" that doesn't happen every swing just seems silly to me.


You'll also have to evaluate how effective reckoning is for your threat, for instance on our Gruul kill last night I took 251 swings, 23 of them were from reckoning. Overall it equated to a fairly small proportion of my threat. That said there are fights where every drop of threat counts, and reckoning certainly helps. I was parried 36 times in that fight, I haven't scanned to see if I took any nasty burst from it though. While killing a boss faster does reduce total damage taken, that's not the same as reducing burst damage, which is more deadly unless your healers are going oom.

I'd wonder what the math would be like, on using a 5/5 WE with 3/3 Precision instead of reckoning. That would increase threat from less missing, but the jury is still out on the parry reduction from WE. It could be a pretty good compromise, especially if WE does reduce incoming parries. Of course you could also just go 5/5WE with reckoning too.

As for Prince, since he's already hitting fast, and parries reduce the swing speed timer by a percentage, so parries are not as deadly on him as they are on other bosses.
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Postby Teah » Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:43 pm

I wasn't talking about cutting reckoning out I was talking about simply not attacking the mob. Ever. Holding threat with just HS+Cons. That is the direction this is going and has been said a few times actually.

I don't tank anything where Reckoning could cause a problem honestly. Reckoning is like a non-issue for me I already respec enough I could try without it one of these weeks. *shrug* Tanking without Reckoning or switching to slower weapon I can see the merit in it. It is just a non-issue as I tank adds and trash. :wink:
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Postby Reiyuka » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:26 pm

I really don't see how people can object to the plain fact that getting a boss parry is a painful, painful experience.

If a boss is hitting for 5k on a 2 second timer, the worst case is that you get parried immediately after a boss swing:

0.0: boss hits you
0.01: boss parries your attack
1.2: boss hits you again

a full .8 seconds faster. The boss's DPS goes up pretty dramatically: instead of 10k in a 2 second window, you get 10k in a 1.2 second window - the very definition of spike damage, with little time for healers to react to it. You can expect 15 out of a hundred attacks to be parried by default, and about half of those will significantly shorten the boss's swing timer.

Parries are honestly deadly, and the fewer of them you have to deal with, the better. The option of "not attacking" is admittedly silly in all but some rare situations (like if you're offtanking a hard hitter until the DPS gets to it) but it's a viable one, I think. One more option to add to our toolkit.

Reckoning adds 3-4 extra attacks over 8 seconds, depending on the speed of your weapon. Without Reckoning, you've got a 48% chance of incurring a single parry; with it, those four attacks become 8 attacks, or a 73% chance of a parry. I don't particularly like those odds. It's a dramatic increase in the probability of incurring incoming spike damage.

I don't think I'm being unreasonable in removing Reckoning as a liability in boss fights. It's just not THAT valuable to make up for it. OHWS is just as good, if not better, for five points.
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Postby Vanifae » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:39 pm

Reiyuka wrote:Reckoning adds 3-4 extra attacks over 8 seconds, depending on the speed of your weapon. Without Reckoning, you've got a 39% chance of incurring a single parry; with it, those four attacks become 8 attacks, or a 73% chance of a parry. I don't particularly like those odds. It's a dramatic increase in the probability of incurring incoming spike damage.

I don't think I'm being unreasonable in removing Reckoning as a liability in boss fights. It's just not THAT valuable to make up for it. OHWS is just as good, if not better, for five points.

Maybe I should look closer at my own damage but I don't find myself dying to parries all that often unless I have a retarded DPS not standing behind the tank. So by that thought do you drop Deflection as well from retribution?

I mean at what point do you apply Risk Management and just say I think I have reached an acceptable level for parries and parry spike damage.

I guess I just don't see it all that often, Avoidance is a luck mechanic, sure you can stack it in your favor but it is still subject to streaks, and unluckiness. But I am also playing Devil's Advocate I suppose.
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Postby Everlight » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:41 pm

Yes, I certainly don't think that actually stopping auto-attacking is a good idea. I mean, you're talking a ~25-30% threat reduction right there, and no judgement too. That kind of threat reduction is severe, and you're not gaining too much from it.

What I'm getting at is that WE and Reckoning are fairly close in their effective threat bonus anyway, once you're geared, and WE has the side effect of helping reduce parries, so the parry thing is more of a tie-breaker.

And for that matter, I wouldn't say "ZOMG DON'T USE A 1.6 SPEED WEAPON!", but if it's down to a 1.6 speed weapon or a 2.7 speed weapon to use against, say, Gruul, all other things being equal, I'd use the 2.7 - again, parry is the tiebreaker.

Parries are not trivial, they shouldn't be ignored, but by the same token you shouldn't be trying to remove them at the exclusion of everything else. Same thing with crushing blows for that matter.
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Postby Everlight » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:44 pm

Vanifae wrote:Maybe I should look closer at my own damage but I don't find myself dying to parries all that often


Do it. You will be very surprised.

Vanifae wrote:I mean at what point do you apply Risk Management and just say I think I have reached an acceptable level for parries and parry spike damage.


That's what I'm getting at. I've noticed that people tend to get completely frickin' obsessed with just ONE element of tanking, and tend to go mad at that to the exclusion of all else. That's not the way forward.

You will not remove parries from the table. But you can make choices that will help, and some of those choices are beneficial in themselves, so remembering that they also help reduce parries makes the choice easier.
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Postby Vanifae » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:44 pm

Everlight wrote:What I'm getting at is that WE and Reckoning are fairly close in their effective threat bonus anyway, once you're geared, and WE has the side effect of helping reduce parries, so the parry thing is more of a tie-breaker.

I thought there was not enough data to prove that WE reduced parries in any meaningful way, if so please provide a link.
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Postby Reiyuka » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:55 pm

Vanifae wrote:I thought there was not enough data to prove that WE reduced parries in any meaningful way, if so please provide a link.


It's my understanding that this is true, as well, and that the WE advantage is that it can get you 3.1% +hit for 3 points, bringing you to 365 skill, and that it has no apparent effect on boss parries. Obviously this doesn't apply to Humans. :)
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Postby Worldie » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:58 pm

Actually i should agree with who said that parries are overrated. There's no real way to prevent them except stopping autoattack, and since you cannot do it unless you can afford a solid threat loss, all the theorycraft about Parryes is completely useless. Or well, at least until someone can actually show that weapon skills reduces parries.
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Postby Everlight » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:01 pm

Vanifae wrote:I thought there was not enough data to prove that WE reduced parries in any meaningful way, if so please provide a link.


The data is still being collected. There's some thoughts that Venoxis is actually a bad test candidate because his parry rate is abnormally low anyway.

That said, look at some of my logs with 5/5 WE (non-human);

12% parry - http://www.lossendil.com/wws/?report=v4 ... 0-5561&a=5
13% parry - http://www.lossendil.com/wws/?report=he ... =4443-4805
13% parry - http://www.lossendil.com/wws/?report=t4 ... =3179-3546
5% parry - http://www.lossendil.com/wws/?report=n5 ... 5-1837&a=8
8% parry - http://www.lossendil.com/wws/?report=er ... =3852-4303
10% parry - http://www.lossendil.com/wws/?report=zv ... =3428-3801

Compare this against similar logs for non-humans, and you'll notice parry rates of about 14-15%.

Note, the data set is not huge, since you're trying to accumulate data on a ~13% probability chance on a class who only has an autoattack that's parriable. Thus it takes quite a while to accumulate data.

(while we're on the topic, look at the freakishly low miss rate, and the dodge rate as well)

Addendum: In case you think I'm only selecting data suited to my case, I went straight down our log list, grabbed every single raid, and then grabbed the log for every Curator, Prince, and Moroes kill in there. I did not exclude ANY log that I looked at. You can choose not to believe me if you wish.
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Postby Fridmarr » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:10 pm

Reiyuka wrote:
Vanifae wrote:I thought there was not enough data to prove that WE reduced parries in any meaningful way, if so please provide a link.


It's my understanding that this is true, as well, and that the WE advantage is that it can get you 3.1% +hit for 3 points, bringing you to 365 skill, and that it has no apparent effect on boss parries. Obviously this doesn't apply to Humans. :)


The jury is certainly still out on this. The testing done on Venoxis had some odd numbers overall, including a very low base parry rate in the first place, but it is a good place to start. There is still continuing discussion on this

http://elitistjerks.com/f31/t11885-rogu ... ssion/p25/
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Postby Klimpen » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:24 pm

Firstly, glad to see that my threat is being used. I made an additional post over at the first thread at tankspot.com:

Just as a note, I mentioned that this is purely TC and has no pratical application. This is true. It's also the reason why you can't rely on Avoidance to save you. Sure, with a large enough sample size, you'll get values extremely close to the ones provided by this math. And even then, the samples wouldn't be a static value, there would be times where a large period goes between Reckoning Induced Parries, or a very short period.

I'll go through and explain what I'm doing in each part of the equation.

T=2/((100%-A)*10%)*20/(((W*4)-8)/W)

It'll be easier if I change it into its indivdual parts, so the equation becomes:
T=n/x*y/x

'n' is the period between attacks. As far as I'm aware, bossmobs have a 2.0 attack speed. Also, bosses may have special attacks, but for the sake of simplicity, I left that out.

'x' is the probability that an attack will trigger a Reckoning proc. It's important to note, that 100%=1, not 100. So, 45% avoidance gives a value of .055, not 5.5.

'y' is the number of attacks needed to have an attack parried. As I said in my first post, I wasn't able to find stable numbers for Parry rate, so I used 5%. This value is y=1/[BossParry].

'z' is the average number of extra attacks generated by Reckoning. Just make sure that if (W*4)-8 is negative, you use the value z=4.

I hope that offered some extra insight into this.


I took 251 swings, 23 of them were from reckoning.


Just thought I'd highligh this, That's a 10% increase in attacks, 2% per point.

Neither WEx or Precision offers this increase in attacks, both offering ~1% per point.

Imo, Reckoning is one of the stronger talents in Prot for increasing threat. The additional damage taken through Parries isn't significant, imo.
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Postby Everlight » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:24 pm

Klimpen wrote:Just thought I'd highligh this, That's a 10% increase in attacks, 2% per point.

Neither WEx or Precision offers this increase in attacks, both offering ~1% per point.

Imo, Reckoning is one of the stronger talents in Prot for increasing threat. The additional damage taken through Parries isn't significant, imo.


I just went back and reviewed some of my logs to check up on this. Yes, it seems that Reckoning does actually add a fair bit of weapon swing threat, but then again so does WEx (for a non-human). Incidentally, for a non-human, most of my logs are showing a much better than ~1% boost per point. It's closer to 2% overall.

There's the interesting consequence that Reckoning shines where you're fighting a dual-wielding boss like Moroes / Prince, and WEx shines where you're fighting a slow-attacking hard-hitter like Gruul / Curator. Of course, Reckoning happens to shine in the same situation where Holy Shield does anyway, hence why I find it's not so flash for overall generation.

This is making me wonder if I should try some wonky spec with 3/5 WEx, 5/5 Reckoning, and 3/3 Precision, just to see what happens.
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