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The purpose of Weapon Expertise

Warning: Theorycraft inside.

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Postby Alixander » Fri Jul 06, 2007 6:49 am

Chevalier wrote:I thought the point of this post was to present evidence that the enemy parrying attacks was similar in function to a player parrying attacks...so yes thats what I was questioning, using statistics instead of just looking at it...and it holds up for the most part, except you could use more data...im confused, what is the point of presenting this data if you claim it is a known fact?
You bring up a good point that I hadn't considered: That enemy parry functionality could be different than player parry functionality. While I still believe that the info on parrying is correct, I acknowledge the point of your original post (that there is enough room for error for it to be questioned).

As for the point, it was to say that (assuming I'm correct about Parries) that Paladins have a distinct advantage against melee oriented mobs, and this is further coming to light.

Also, assuming that Weapon Ex lowers incoming parry (even if it's only 0.06% per point) that's still an advantage that paladins, and only paladins, can match since it's a protection tree talent.

Candiru wrote:TBH if you are that worried about being parried just turn off auto-attack and use judgement/consecration/holy shield.

No parries! and you have only lost 25% ish threat.
Parries just from our own attacks are only a small portion of increased potential damage. If we could lower it though Weapon Ex, then it would be an entirely justified reason to put points into that talent. But more to the point, by having an understanding or a point from which we can test to see if parries by enemies do have the effect of increasing the next swing, we can give better direction and do our job better.

Methos's did not understand parries, so he allowed the NPCs from the Horde area in Mt. Hyjal attack Azgalor's front. Instead of rotating and moving Azgalor so that the NPCs were attacking him from behind, he ignored them, and that appears to be what killed him. The same could go for any tank who allows his or her allies to attack from the front. Let's say every DPS Warrior, enhancement Shaman, and ret pally was also attacking from the mob's front and each time the mob parried it increased the speed of the next swing. A situation much like what happened to Methos could easily happen again.
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Postby Arcand » Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:06 am

Alixander wrote:Layman's terms, please. :?


If you do a couple of tests - let's say I flip a coin 1000 times and you do too, and I get heads 487 times and you get heads 502 times.

The 'null hypothesis' is that our coins both have equal heads chances, so the difference in our numbers can be explained away by luck. The 'alternative hypothesis' is that our coins really are different, the 487-502 difference is too big to be explained away by luck. When that happens the difference is said to be 'statistically significant'.

...and a t-test helps you decide which one it is.

According to Chev's number crunch, the differences we see in these logs could happen by chance about 6.6% of the time. That's low enough to be interesting, but not really low enough to start confidently shouting out conclusions. If we can get enough samples to chop that chance down under 1%, then we're almost certainly onto something.
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Postby Candiru » Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:58 am

But isn't a mobs attack speed fixed normally? So ANY variation in attack speed must be down to something, rather than mobs having a random attack timer and trying to show that parrying can't be explained away that way?
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Postby Glam » Fri Jul 06, 2007 9:11 am

Forgive me if I have missed this elsewhere in the postings, but has anyone respecced to include these talants and noted what the differences actually were (before & after) with dodge, block, & parry? Seems to me that would be the easiest way of finding out, wouldn't it?
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Postby Jensaarai » Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:47 pm

Chevalier wrote:Did a two sample t-test (used levene's test and was able to assume equal variances) with null hypothesis that the two were equal against the alternate hypothesis that the parried strikes took less time then the normal strikes and got a p-value of .066, meaning there's a 6.6% chance that this data could have happened randomly. Up to you whether that is enough evidence or not. :)


Man, I don't know if it's good or not that I actually understand most of that :twisted:


I'm really quite interested in this and hope we can get some kind of answer soon...I might just respec to 3/5 WE instead of Precision and see if I can tell any difference...maybe WWS an entire Kara run or just do Shattered Halls over and over again or something...

Thank you guys for your work on this; I can't help thinking, however, that this could all be solved so much easier if we just asked that CM or whoever it was to check his numbers and see if they were actually correct...?

Wouldn't the easiest way to be to just ask Blizzard? Besides the fact that we might never get an answer :/ heh
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Postby Alixander » Fri Jul 06, 2007 12:59 pm

Jensaarai wrote:Wouldn't the easiest way to be to just ask Blizzard? Besides the fact that we might never get an answer :/ heh
It would be easier, but that wouldn't prove it in the same way as doing some comprehensive testing. Unfortunately the CMs will ask someone and there have been cases of them not giving us the right answer. The CMs only know as much as the devs tell them, and if the dev they ask gives a wrong answer or the CM misunderstands what the dev meant, then we're actually worse off because we believe something that is wrong. This is why everyone goes though that ridiculous amount of testing, despite what the CM said about weapon skill affecting parrying chance.
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Postby Fridmarr » Fri Jul 06, 2007 7:26 pm

Jensaarai wrote:
Chevalier wrote:Did a two sample t-test (used levene's test and was able to assume equal variances) with null hypothesis that the two were equal against the alternate hypothesis that the parried strikes took less time then the normal strikes and got a p-value of .066, meaning there's a 6.6% chance that this data could have happened randomly. Up to you whether that is enough evidence or not. :)


Man, I don't know if it's good or not that I actually understand most of that :twisted:


I'm really quite interested in this and hope we can get some kind of answer soon...I might just respec to 3/5 WE instead of Precision and see if I can tell any difference...maybe WWS an entire Kara run or just do Shattered Halls over and over again or something...

Thank you guys for your work on this; I can't help thinking, however, that this could all be solved so much easier if we just asked that CM or whoever it was to check his numbers and see if they were actually correct...?

Wouldn't the easiest way to be to just ask Blizzard? Besides the fact that we might never get an answer :/ heh


I currently have 3/5 WE and i've examined the WWS stats of each boss in kara before and after, the overall hit difference was negligible though I did get parried slightly less each time. I don't think testing in shattered halls will give you a valid test since there is some dependency on the level of the mob. I only looked at boss fights, and to be honest, I just don't think it matters much, you know that talk about calculating stuff out to the third decimal point...this is something like that.
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Postby Joanadark » Sat Jul 07, 2007 2:26 pm

I mentioned long ago following my "path we follow" post that I had a theory on Weapon Expertise, but I didnt want to throw it out there because I wasnt anywhere near confident on the math.
You found it. And went further.

There exists a fairly easy way of testing this.

You need some healers.
Go do Onyxia (dragons are known to have abnormally high parry rates) and tank her with SotCrusader on for faster attack speed.

parse the combat log to determine the % of parried attacks

respec into Weapon Expertise.

repeat previous and compare.
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Postby dhan619 » Mon Jul 09, 2007 3:32 am

Sorry to be the bubble buster here...

but even though weapon expertise gives yout +10 weapon skill rating.. I hardly find that -.4% for the mob to parry from your hits is hardly worth 5 talent points.


Bosses increasing dps due to parrying is definitly something I overlooked though.
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Postby Sereen » Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:33 am

People are only talking about speccing 3/5 into it from what I can tell. It's more a case that Precision can be built with gear, and quite often is when you look at the tanking gear on offer. There is no real way to boost the stats that WE may increase (decrease in this case).

People are just asking what's better once we hit a certain point in +tohit. 3/3 Precision or 3/5 WE.


I'm SO watching this thread. xD I would help, but my pally is still only 33 or 34, and I'm still in high school, so my math skills aren't quite up to scratch just yet (gimme a couple of years, and I'll be up there with you guys =D )
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Postby Puss » Mon Jul 09, 2007 7:53 am

thanks for this post. Very useful.
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Postby Alixander » Mon Jul 09, 2007 8:21 am

What needs to be tested (if I can get the healers I'll hit up Onyxia) is how much the various numbers affect Parry. Since I'm a human I can test it better than some. If I get an axe and a sword I can test them both with and without 5/5 Weapon Ex. That will give me parry numbers for 350, 355, 360 and 365.

It could very well be a case only a limited amount is really helpful, in which case knowing when you started getting diminishing returns would be very helpful. For example, let's say there's a decent jump from 350-355, but beyond that you are only getting half of the returns In that case for Dwarves, Draenei, and Blood Elves 3/5 would be the best option, while Humans could restrict themselves to swords and maces (not a big deal since that's almost all of the +spell damage weapons anyway) and be able to avoid needing this.

One of the inherent flaws of the tests done on the thread I linked at EJ is that they only checked 350 vs. 365 and assumed it was a static increase the entire way. Assumptions are very bad, because they lead you to conclusions that you won't test.

Also, if I keep track of the combat logs I will be able to do more testing to confirm that parry does increase attack speed of mobs. It's highly likely, but confirmation with more testing is never a bad thing. ^^ Now I just need to find a few healers and agree to have them keep me from dying as I get beat down by a dragon.
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Postby Fridmarr » Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:55 am

dhan619 wrote:Sorry to be the bubble buster here...

but even though weapon expertise gives yout +10 weapon skill rating.. I hardly find that -.4% for the mob to parry from your hits is hardly worth 5 talent points.


Bosses increasing dps due to parrying is definitly something I overlooked though.


Well in my opinion the DPS increase from parry is rather secondary, it's actually to my benefit unless it kills me, and death by parry seems extremely rare. That said, weapon expertise also takes away from dodge and miss, so according to the math posted by the blue, 3 points in weapon expertise would provide more +hit against a level 73 mob than 3 points of precision, so I just shifted those talent point accordingly.
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Postby Aessina » Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:58 am

Fridmarr wrote:
dhan619 wrote:Sorry to be the bubble buster here...

but even though weapon expertise gives yout +10 weapon skill rating.. I hardly find that -.4% for the mob to parry from your hits is hardly worth 5 talent points.


Bosses increasing dps due to parrying is definitly something I overlooked though.


Well in my opinion the DPS increase from parry is rather secondary, it's actually to my benefit unless it kills me, and death by parry seems extremely rare. That said, weapon expertise also takes away from dodge and miss, so according to the math posted by the blue, 3 points in weapon expertise would provide more +hit against a level 73 mob than 3 points of precision, so I just shifted those talent point accordingly.


Unless I misread something, blue claimed you got 0.2% chance to hit per weapon skill; at 3/5 Weapon Expertise that would be 6 weapon skill or 1.2% chance to hit. A far cry from 3%.

Nevermind, I re-read your post and see what you mean now :)
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Postby Ignus » Tue Jul 10, 2007 4:53 am

this subject came up on the wow forums and I was able to glean this link from them:

http://forums.wow-europe.com/thread.htm ... 1&pageNo=1

CMs confirming(indirectly) that it is indeed -0.6% chance to be parried per point.

The reason this can be such a high percentage actually makes a lot of sense when you are thinking about melee dps. They will never get parried if they are standing in the right place, so weapon skill could give -5.0% parry per point and it would make zero difference in their damage output. all the other stats though are things that the dps need to worry about.

for us though, it would appear 3/5 WE is indeed superior to 3/3 precision.


-EDIT-

wow, I'm an idiot. I need to learn to click on links >.> I posted the same one as earlier in the thread. I do know that there was another thread where it was laid out very clearly what each point of weapon expertise was, so I assumed this was the 2nd post confirming it to be true (I'm assuming no chance for them to have gotten the wrong info from the devs 2 times :P ) My point still stands though >.>
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