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Windwalk, outdated?

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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby theckhd » Fri Dec 16, 2011 8:41 am

fuzzygeek wrote:You're talking about a 2% chance to dodge with a low uptime -- looking at 4 different logs, I have an overall uptime of ~11%, which contradicts the generally quoted 30% uptime (and frankly makes it look like complete shit).

Which logs, if you don't mind me asking? If the model is incorrect, or if something about the mechanics have changed, I'd like to know.

fuzzygeek wrote:This enchant might save your life once in a blue moon, but it won't change your healer's behaviour or demands on them at all.

No, it certainly won't change how they heal. I think the first part is why most people take the enchant; tank death is very often a wipe and hard to recover from, so preventing even one of those over the course of a raid week is an efficiency improvement.

fuzzygeek wrote:Increasing RDPS to beat spawn timers, however, will drastically change overall healing requirements. On Ultraxion, Spine, and Madness, these are very real concerns.
I'm also in Psiven's camp regarding raid strategy though; you survive to see the enrage, then you worry about beating it. Tanks are one of the least efficient places to eke out DPS; generally you can get an order of magnitude better increase in RDPS with minor strategy tweaks. Also, I raid 25's, where tank DPS is a much smaller factor; in 10's it can be a different story.

It's all relative though. I wouldn't criticize a tank using Landslide, especially if they're successfully killing bosses. Where I'd question the decision is the tank who gems/enchants for DPS and then consistently dies, becoming the point of failure for their raid group.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby tlitp » Fri Dec 16, 2011 9:37 am

fuzzygeek wrote:Windwalker (...) a 2% chance to dodge with a low uptime -- looking at 4 different logs, I have an overall uptime of ~11%, which contradicts the generally quoted 30% uptime (and frankly makes it look like complete shit).

Let's look at the current (Dec 16th) top 20 parses on Baleroc :

The first model of WW was made by yours truly, almost (exactly) one year ago; it proposes a 30-40% (average) uptime under two very specific conditions : an infinite-length encounter and 100% time-on-target for both the tank and the boss.

Then again, the current raiding environment hardly consists of clones of Patchwerk, idling happily whilst you keep pounding at them ad nauseam. I'm not at all surprised to see 10% WW uptimes on certain encounters; you shouldn't be either. :P

Are you the "add tank" ? Are you off-tanking ? Does the encounter involve various interruptions (dodging oozes/lava, flight phases a.s.o.) ? Does the encounter involve (mandatory) tank-swapping ? Is the encounter particularly short, length-wise (LOLruns on old content, massively over-gearing the "farm" content a.s.o.) ? Don't play the "FFS Windwalk is teh suckz" card if you happen to answer affirmatively to the above queries.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby Epimer » Fri Dec 16, 2011 9:40 am

theckhd wrote:
fuzzygeek wrote:You're talking about a 2% chance to dodge with a low uptime -- looking at 4 different logs, I have an overall uptime of ~11%, which contradicts the generally quoted 30% uptime (and frankly makes it look like complete shit).

Which logs, if you don't mind me asking? If the model is incorrect, or if something about the mechanics have changed, I'd like to know.


Here's an Ultraxion normal kill with 30.2% uptime, a Shannox heroic (I was on the boss, so mostly hitting stuff all the time) kill with 27.4% uptime, a Zon'ozz with 35.7% uptime and another with a 43.7% uptime (a bit high because I spend a non-zero amount of time whacking him in the rear?).

I'm sure you've no shortage of your own logs to look through, but thought I'd provide a few cases where the prediction does, more or less, appear to match the observed outcome.

EDIT: tlitp's quicker than me :)
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby fuzzygeek » Fri Dec 16, 2011 9:54 am

theckhd wrote:If the model is incorrect, or if something about the mechanics have changed, I'd like to know.


I pulled up some old Firelands logs and looked at overall data; when I drill down to just kills I'm seeing 24.1%, 24.7%, 25%, and 26.5%. So it was an error on my part and the uptime isn't as completely abysmal as my earlier post indicated (I'll go back and fix).

theckhd wrote:No, it certainly won't change how they heal. I think the first part is why most people take the enchant; tank death is very often a wipe and hard to recover from, so preventing even one of those over the course of a raid week is an efficiency improvement.


The post I was responding to was making the argument that Windwalk could lead a 10M raid to drop from 3 healers to 2. In theory, I completely agree that one avoided tank death leading to a wipe is an overall efficiency improvement. In practice, over the past two weeks I've seen far more wipes due to missing DPS windows on Ultraxion, Spine, and Madness than tank deaths -- I can remember maybe a handful of fights in the last three weeks where we wiped due to a tank death, compared to dozens for missing RDPS marks. Again, this is less of an issue for 25M than 10M raiders (and in 25M I would argue that 25% uptime on 2% dodge is going to get completely lost in statistical noise).

theckhd wrote:It's all relative though. I wouldn't criticize a tank using Landslide, especially if they're successfully killing bosses. Where I'd question the decision is the tank who gems/enchants for DPS and then consistently dies, becoming the point of failure for their raid group.


I completely agree. I mentioned in another thread that swapping stam for hit/xpt is fine right up to the point where it starts getting you killed. It is going to be relative and is going to vary from raid group to raid group, from 10M to 25M. I'll clarify my remarks in the future to emphasize that if (generic) you the tank are not dying and causing the point of failure in the raid, then swapping to hit/xpt to help hit those RDPS goalposts is certainly reasonable -- but, again, it's better to get the actual DPS classes to step the fuck up.

I think a lot of my issue with these proccy things is that when Landslide procs, it is guaranteed to give you 1000 AP for 12 seconds. When Windwalk procs, while it guarantees 2% dodge (before DR) for ten seconds, you may still eat every incoming hit.

I find procs that may be completely ineffectual distasteful.
Last edited by fuzzygeek on Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby fuzzygeek » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:20 am

tlitp wrote:Are you the "add tank" ? Are you off-tanking ? Does the encounter involve various interruptions (dodging oozes/lava, flight phases a.s.o.) ? Does the encounter involve (mandatory) tank-swapping ? Is the encounter particularly short, length-wise (LOLruns on old content, massively over-gearing the "farm" content a.s.o.) ? Don't play the "FFS Windwalk is teh suckz" card if you happen to answer affirmatively to the above queries.


It amuses me to no end that your abbreviation of "and so on" saves you three characters, arguably two :D

Why is your dataset truncated out of curiosity? Did the other parses not use Windwalk?

Also, you are exaggerating my stance or misreading me entirely if you think I'm saying "FFS Windwalk is teh suckz." I'm not playing that card, and I reject your implication that I am, nor do I see what any of your queries have to do with this particular discussion thread.

Let me spell out my argument:
- Windwalk will never, on its own, change healing requirements to the point that a 10M raid could drop from 3 healers to 2 healers. I doubt it has any meaningful impact on a 25M raid's behaviour at all.
- In current content that I have experience with (all 25N, 10N Ultra, Spine, Madness), there are some hard markers that, should you miss them due to insufficient RDPS, make the encounter considerably more difficult. None of these markers are going to be affected by Windwalk. All can be affected by increased tank DPS, with an even more magnified effect in a 10M raid.

Would some raids and tanks benefit more from Landslide than Windwalk? I would argue certainly yes. I would argue that Windwalk's effects are small enough to get lost in statistical noise of overhealing, whereas increased tank dps could contribute meaningfully to hitting RDPS markers.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby tlitp » Fri Dec 16, 2011 1:02 pm

fuzzygeek wrote:(...) when Landslide procs, it is guaranteed to give you 1000 AP for 12 seconds. When Windwalk procs, while it guarantees 2% dodge (before DR) for ten seconds, you may still eat every incoming hit.

I find procs that may be completely ineffectual distasteful.

Even Landslide's 1000 AP is effective only if you actually manage to hit your target in that 12s window. Granted, missing every attack in those 12s, whilst sitting at 0 hit/exp, is an unlikely occurrence. However, it can happen. LS/WW are both stochastic, using terms such as "guaranteed benefit" is an exercise in futility.

fuzzygeek wrote:Why is your dataset truncated out of curiosity? Did the other parses not use Windwalk? (I)

Also, you are exaggerating my stance or misreading me entirely if you think I'm saying "FFS Windwalk is teh suckz." I'm not playing that card, and I reject your implication that I am, nor do I see what any of your queries have to do with this particular discussion thread. (II)

Let me spell out my argument: (snip) (III)

I. Some of them used LS, some of them were from FR/DE/RU/TW realms.
II. There's no reason to get defensive. I was simply pointing out that your empirical observations (WW's ~10% uptime on some encounters) do not actually refute the 30% average uptime model. And then I went on to explain how that can happen, to which you throw at a "nor do I see what any of your queries have to do with this particular discussion thread". Really ?
Moreover, you claim that "an overall uptime of ~11% (...) makes it look like complete shit" and "FFS Windwalk is teh suckz" are dissimilar. Really ?
III. I don't give a rat's arse if LS is "better" than WW, or exactly the opposite. I don't care if one can be used more effectively than the other one in the current raiding environment. I've only addressed a few mechanical misunderstandings. The burden of decision is entirely yours.


PS. You seem to have forgotten that I'm a Rogue, retired ~3y ago from WoW. Whatever catfights you Paladins like to have, they aren't exactly my cup of tea. More so when we're "fighting" with words, not numbers.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby fuzzygeek » Fri Dec 16, 2011 2:07 pm

There is a caveat I did not (and should have) included: *if this 11% uptime is correct, which I'm not certain of because tlitp's simulation indicates an uptime that should be much higher* but I'm not writing a long disclaimer out entirely because it is hard to type lying in bed with my cat sitting on my chest.

II: I get defensive when I think people are misrepresenting my argument. My call of no-clash was not on how fight mechanics will negatively impact the uptime, and was not intended to impugn your theoretical work. I don't think the nature of the fight (phases,swapping,short fight, w.h.y) affects what I understood to be that particular topic: namely, will Windwalk let you drop a healer.

Also, there is a difference between "this 11% uptime *makes it look like complete shit*" and "this is definitely complete shit for true." Granted I should have included *if this 11% is correct* -- which it is clearly not, and I'd already started writing the retraction before I saw your corrective post. Yes, really. I was unclear, so I apologize. I very rarely make categorical statements, so accusing me of such is a good way to troll the fuck out of me.

The community as a whole deeply appreciates the in-depth analysis that you do, and I make it a point to thank you when you've corrected me on something I've misunderstood or didn't take into account certain additional mechanics or gameplay interaction. I do not interpret your telling me not to play a card (that I did not think I played) as being just a clarification of a mechanical misunderstanding.

I know you are/were a rogue, but your class or current playing status has no bearing on the accuracy or value of the data you bring to the table, which is generally impeccable. Snide comments about catfights aside, yes, you are correct that Windwalk's uptime is theoretically higher than the quick sample I looked at to gauge its performance in actual variegated boss fights, and that the guaranteed 1k AP from landslide can be ineffectual if you fail to hit the boss. These are all rigorously correct.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby Alantor » Mon Dec 26, 2011 8:53 pm

I just do not see the value of a dodge proc once you are block capped. I know dodge avoid the damage instead of mitigate it but it is a proc! You cannot predict if it's going to avoid a normal mele attack or a megadamage and given that the % increase of dodge is not huge i think that Windwalk is useless.

I'm running 10HM DS and RDPS is a concern so i will try Landslide next save and i will tell you :)
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby j2ther » Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:29 pm

I gotta say that, for me anyways, Windwalk is outdated. The extra dodge is admittedly good, but with my current stats my guild isn't finding survivability much of a problem as we are DPS.

Now that we're into heroic DS content we are finding that every bit of DPS counts. Most of the heroic fights have tremendous DPS requirements and nothing will wake you up more to this then 5% heroic Ultraxion wipes.

I am definitely taking Landslide, and I think if your debating the same you gotta ask yourself whether your guild currently needs you to be pushing more DPS or more survivability.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby Lathdari » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:12 pm

Windwalk gives around 2% extra dodge, with around 30% uptime, for around 0.7% extra time-averaged dodge, i.e. you will dodge around an extra 1 in 140 attacks, which will then benefit from 100% mitigation vs 30% (or possibly 50%) mitigation it would have got any way (since you're block capped). 1 in 140 is around the once per boss-fight mark. If the boss hits for, say, 60k on plate, damage taken is reduced by roughly 40k because of the extra dodge, which over a 300s fight would be a reduction of about 130 in dtps. Since it's a sketchy calculation, we'll call it 100 dtps additional mitigation. That's not huge, but I think it's clearly worthwhile.

Landslide gives 240 extra dps, which is also not huge. Certainly it *could* make the difference between passing and failing a dps check, but it's not very likely to. It's certainly not going to help if you're wiping at 5%, say.

I think the basic problem is that if your raid is failing dps checks, the dps need to shape up, and there's nothing you (as tank) can do about it. It's a frustrating position to be in, but I'm not sure the answer is so start fiddling with your tanking set up to achieve dps gains which are incredibly minor in the grand scheme of things. Until my raid leader tells me otherwise, I'll continue to prefer a minor surviability gain over a minor dps gain.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby Alchy » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:56 am

I dont often post on this forum, I usually just come along and read theorycrafting, as its often pretty though provoking, and saves getting complacent with never changing style or stats.
However I would like to say I feel sorry for the guy a little while back in this thread, who when posting along the lines of 'No healing will eventually allow you to change from 3 to 2 healers on the fight' (not ww will let you use 2 healers on this fight), ie, implying that taking survivability stats is a better idea generally speaking than dps ones, from a tanking perspective, got jumped on with a 'we know this' and 'youre wrong!'. I dont think he was looking to patronise or annoy anyone with this, just give his own view of the topic, which was just as valid as many of the other half thought through posts, and tbh after the response he got, if I was him I'd probably think twice before posting here again.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby Digren » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:50 am

Alchy wrote:I dont often post on this forum, I usually just come along and read theorycrafting, as its often pretty though provoking, and saves getting complacent with never changing style or stats.
However I would like to say I feel sorry for the guy a little while back in this thread, who when posting along the lines of 'No healing will eventually allow you to change from 3 to 2 healers on the fight' (not ww will let you use 2 healers on this fight), ie, implying that taking survivability stats is a better idea generally speaking than dps ones, from a tanking perspective, got jumped on with a 'we know this' and 'youre wrong!'. I dont think he was looking to patronise or annoy anyone with this, just give his own view of the topic, which was just as valid as many of the other half thought through posts, and tbh after the response he got, if I was him I'd probably think twice before posting here again.

I think people get a little testy in December. It's probably too much time around family and too little time playing WoW! :P

But yes, I agree with you Alchy. It never hurts to be nice.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby saif » Wed Jan 11, 2012 7:55 am

This has been a really helpful thread - if a bit testy at times. Helped me make up my mind in favor of Landslide until I start dying. Our issue has almost always been RDPS (I'm in a 10-person guild) and very, very rarely tank death.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby Skye1013 » Wed Jan 11, 2012 7:59 am

saif wrote:This has been a really helpful thread - if a bit testy at times. Helped me make up my mind in favor of Landslide until I start dying. Our issue has almost always been RDPS (I'm in a 10-person guild) and very, very rarely tank death.

Do you guys two heal or three heal? As was stated, this alone won't allow you to two heal fights, but it certainly wouldn't hurt, and switching that extra healer to a dps would definitely help your RDPS.
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Re: Windwalk, outdated?

Postby saif » Wed Jan 11, 2012 8:18 am

Most of our RDPS problem is on Madness. Everything else we more or less one-shot in about 2, 2.5 hours. We 2 heal just about everything except Spine, Zon'ozz and Yor'sahj, maybe.

Madness we're still trying to settle on a number of healers. And mostly I'm going for LS, to help out in those situations where we miss a second Impale or the limb on the 4th platform by 3 or 4 seconds or something like that.

If it doesn't work out, I can always swap out - I'll keep a scroll of WW in my bags tonight just in case.
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