Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Meloree » Fri Nov 27, 2009 8:21 am

Awyndel wrote:Makes one wonder why not everybody uses druid tanks for all hard modes. AD and block cap still don't bring us even close to those numbers in EH.

Anyway more on topic, I had a feeling the proc on this trinket was gonna be crap. Although combined with the already high armor on it it might still be very good for hard hitting bosses.


Barkskin is an inferior cooldown, in general, to ShieldWall/Divine Protection/IBF. For programmed "hit a cooldown or die now" moments, it tends to be insufficient on its own. 4t10, on the other hand, might give them the strongest mitigation cooldown, with enrage/barkskin macroed together to get a ~30% cooldown every minute.

Survival Instincts is an amazing cooldown, but it's on a 3 minute timer.

Druids do have their weaknesses, and they crop up in some fights. AD's EH boost (~5k hp for me) brings us fairly close in total HP, we have higher passive mitigation against magic, and block cap does narrow the gap on hit size somewhat.

Druids do have lower avoidance, by enough that it makes a pretty huge difference in overall damage taken. That's not particularily crippling, but it can make it harder to catch up on really hard-hitting bosses. Yes, I know I'm the "ignore avoidance" guy, but a ~15% gap is noticeable. We'll have to see how the healers feel about it in ICC.

But, yes, druids are extremely strong, and have been strong for all of WotLK so far. Without further changes, druids are probably the strongest tank right now, generally, and look to be the strongest for 3.3, with paladins a fairly close second place.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Meyrinn » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:41 am

Meloree wrote:Barkskin is an inferior cooldown, in general, to ShieldWall/Divine Protection/IBF. For programmed "hit a cooldown or die now" moments, it tends to be insufficient on its own. 4t10, on the other hand, might give them the strongest mitigation cooldown, with enrage/barkskin macroed together to get a ~30% cooldown every minute.


I have to disagree that Barkskin is an inferior cooldown. Its inferior in the moments where your health drops low and you need to use a CD to give healers a chance to heal you up. But for those predictable spike damage attacks like Impale, Surge of Darkness, or Unbalancing Strike its not inferior and may even be superior if those specials are spaced out such that its more than 1 minute but less than 2 minutes in between them. In most cases, the damage from those specials is not 2x your HP pool, so you don't need 50% reduction to live. Even 20% will save you. Also they have Survival Instincts for when their health drops low and you need to buy time.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Meloree » Fri Dec 04, 2009 10:46 am

Meyrinn wrote:I have to disagree that Barkskin is an inferior cooldown. Its inferior in the moments where your health drops low and you need to use a CD to give healers a chance to heal you up. But for those predictable spike damage attacks like Impale, Surge of Darkness, or Unbalancing Strike its not inferior and may even be superior if those specials are spaced out such that its more than 1 minute but less than 2 minutes in between them. In most cases, the damage from those specials is not 2x your HP pool, so you don't need 50% reduction to live. Even 20% will save you. Also they have Survival Instincts for when their health drops low and you need to buy time.


It's inferior for Impale. You only get to use the cooldown once in that phase (where it's important, anyway, you could use Barkskin early, as well, but it's not needed), and 50% is better than 20%. It's sufficient, because the impale burst is marginal to kill a tank anyway, but it's inferior.

It's inferior for Unbalancing Strike. There are any number of other reasons to use a Druid for Thorim, but Barkskin isn't it. You used Barkskin to start the cooldown chain, and by the time it's up again, either Thorim was dead, or your druid was about to be, unless you could stack something else with Barkskin.

It's superior for Surge, in that you can have it up for every Surge, but inferior in that you generally wanted to stack something else with it, as well, before Vezax got his rounds of nerfs.

If the damage is marginal without a cooldown, Barkskin is totally sufficient, and potentially best of breed based on frequency of said spikes. If the damage is of "cooldown or die" level, like Big Bang, or Steelbreaker 3rd/4th, it's often insufficient on it's own, which makes it inferior. So, if Blizzard gives us marginal tank-killing scenarios every minute, then druids win. If they give us OMG PAIN moments every minute, druids lose, because you'll have to stack cooldowns for them every minute.

Let's be really clear, though: We reference Ulduar fight mechanics a lot in these discussions, because Ulduar hardmodes were actually hard, at relevant gear levels. When I talk about Surge, or Unbalancing Strike, I'm really talking about the "while relevant" timeframe of April/May/June, before the massive melee nerfs, and projecting that type of tuning and mechanic into the 3.2 era tanking mechanics. That may be a disconnect, or it might just be unclear, but it's how I tend to think about content. In my opinion, those examples you referenced are examples that highlight the weakness of Barkskin compared to the other mitigation cooldowns in progression content.

I'm not sure what ICC hardmodes will bring for tanks. Barkskin could really have a chance to shine, like at Anub, where really anything is enough to help (marginal burst), or it could be totally overwhelmed.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Meyrinn » Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:13 pm

Are you saying its inferior because its weaker? This is only the case if 20% is not enough. Most of the hard modes its not such overwhelming damage that it requires 50% DR. 50% DR usually made it so damage was laughable versus it would kill me. If 20% is sufficient to live through the spike damage, then which would you rather have? a 50% 2 minute CD, or a 20% 1 minute CD?
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Meyrinn » Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:34 pm

Meloree wrote:It's inferior for Impale. You only get to use the cooldown once in that phase (where it's important, anyway, you could use Barkskin early, as well, but it's not needed), and 50% is better than 20%. It's sufficient, because the impale burst is marginal to kill a tank anyway, but it's inferior.


You only get to use it once in that phase? Is your dps so high that he dies in 60 seconds? We use a 3 4+HoP 4+HoP 3 3 rotation. Its about 10 seconds between impales. A Druid can use Barkskin for every single one of his rotations.

Meloree wrote:It's inferior for Unbalancing Strike. There are any number of other reasons to use a Druid for Thorim, but Barkskin isn't it. You used Barkskin to start the cooldown chain, and by the time it's up again, either Thorim was dead, or your druid was about to be, unless you could stack something else with Barkskin.


Unbalancing Strike is on a 15 second cooldown. Did you kill him in 60 seconds also? Our first kill went to 15 stacks.

Meloree wrote:It's superior for Surge, in that you can have it up for every Surge, but inferior in that you generally wanted to stack something else with it, as well, before Vezax got his rounds of nerfs.

If the damage is marginal without a cooldown, Barkskin is totally sufficient, and potentially best of breed based on frequency of said spikes. If the damage is of "cooldown or die" level, like Big Bang, or Steelbreaker 3rd/4th, it's often insufficient on it's own, which makes it inferior. So, if Blizzard gives us marginal tank-killing scenarios every minute, then druids win. If they give us OMG PAIN moments every minute, druids lose, because you'll have to stack cooldowns for them every minute.


Big Bang is one of the few spikes where you need 50% damage reduction if you don't have any other cooldowns.

Steelbreaker 3rd/4th is also another situation where the hit size is great enough to make Barkskin inferior. But Survival Instincts would be enough for a 3rd.

Meloree wrote:Let's be really clear, though: We reference Ulduar fight mechanics a lot in these discussions, because Ulduar hardmodes were actually hard, at relevant gear levels. When I talk about Surge, or Unbalancing Strike, I'm really talking about the "while relevant" timeframe of April/May/June, before the massive melee nerfs, and projecting that type of tuning and mechanic into the 3.2 era tanking mechanics. That may be a disconnect, or it might just be unclear, but it's how I tend to think about content. In my opinion, those examples you referenced are examples that highlight the weakness of Barkskin compared to the other mitigation cooldowns in progression content.

I'm not sure what ICC hardmodes will bring for tanks. Barkskin could really have a chance to shine, like at Anub, where really anything is enough to help (marginal burst), or it could be totally overwhelmed.


As for relevant timeframe, i'm also thinking about that. While we didn't get Firefighter before the nerfs we but did do some of the others prior to the nerfs. You also have to realize that at that point in time Druids had larger health pools than Paladins by more than the ydo now. We've caught up alot.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Meloree » Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:48 pm

Meyrinn wrote:Are you saying its inferior because its weaker? This is only the case if 20% is not enough. Most of the hard modes its not such overwhelming damage that it requires 50% DR. 50% DR usually made it so damage was laughable versus it would kill me. If 20% is sufficient to live through the spike damage, then which would you rather have? a 50% 2 minute CD, or a 20% 1 minute CD?


Yes. I'm saying it's inferior because it's weaker. If 20% is sufficient to survive the damage, then it's sufficient and still weaker. There is no situation where a single application of barkskin will save you that a single application of another cooldown will not. There are situations where a single application of DP will save you that Barkskin will not. The timing issue is up to encounter design. Using it more often may or may not be an advantage. I say this because one expects that Blizzard will be balancing bosses that require mitigation cooldowns around the 2-minute personal cooldowns that the other 3 tanks bring. As I said before, we'll see.

Meyrinn wrote:
Meloree wrote:It's inferior for Impale. You only get to use the cooldown once in that phase (where it's important, anyway...


You only get to use it once in that phase? Is your dps so high that he dies in 60 seconds? We use a 3 4+HoP 4+HoP 3 3 rotation. Its about 10 seconds between impales. A Druid can use Barkskin for every single one of his rotations.


Yes, you only get to use it once that phase... where it's important. Gormok with 0, 1, or 2 stacks of rising anger is no threat at all, and he's only a marginal threat at 3 stacks. You get to use Barkskin essentially once in that phase. Although, you're talking about 17 impales, which is crazy, but I guess that would allow for an extra application of Barkskin. We use 2 tanks on the alt runs because DPS is really low, and use a 4/4/4+BoP/x+BoP rotation (x is normally 1, but it's been as high as 3 before). My druid is one of the tanks for the alt run (1st and 3rd), and I wish Barkskin was more like DP. The first 4 stacks are harmless, the 2nd rotation hurts.

Meyrinn wrote:Unbalancing Strike is on a 15 second cooldown. Did you kill him in 60 seconds also? Our first kill went to 15 stacks.


Same comment. The cooldown chain started for us at 9 stacks in early kills. And it went something like: Barkskin, 30% bosac (mine), 40% raidwall, 40% raidwall, PS, SI, Barkskin/dead druid, DP (followed by HoSalv and dead paladin, followed by DK with IBF/VB). The plan for that kill always had the druid dying at some point, we knew it was going to happen. But the most important part is that barkskin was sufficient on it's own exactly once, early in the rising damage curve. It was probably used early as well, given that we knew when the programmed use was, but it was an immaterial use. The second use was always totally insufficient to the task. Sometimes we had a 4th paladin in the raid, and we could make the cooldown chain last a little bit longer. We only ever had the one priest in Ulduar progression. So, where the druids last barkskin couldn't keep him up, a DP would keep me up, normally at one extra stack.

Meyrinn wrote:As for relevant timeframe, i'm also thinking about that. While we didn't get Firefighter before the nerfs we but did do some of the others prior to the nerfs. You also have to realize that at that point in time Druids had larger health pools than Paladins by more than they do now. We've caught up alot.


I'm not sure if the healthpool gap was larger in Ulduar, but granted anyway. So what, we're talking about a cooldown. If you're trying to make the point that "Druids are extremely strong, in spite of an anemic damage mitigation cooldown", then I couldn't agree more. If you're trying to say "they don't need it as badly, they have more health", then that's probably true as well. Those are both things I said in the original post you responded to. None of that makes Barkskin a better cooldown.

Frankly, I'm ecstatic about our cooldown loadout going into ICC, but I expect it's going to catch the nerfhammer in a big way. 20% raidwall on a 2min cooldown + 50% DP on a 2 minute cooldown is both more powerful and more flexible than Barkskin, in that they can be used back to back or even simultaneously. HoSalv is liable to end up back in my glyph loadout for some fights. Frankly, it's not surprising that our set bonus is dodge, everyone else needs the help to keep up on mitigation cooldowns.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Meyrinn » Mon Dec 07, 2009 9:23 am

Meloree,

There is a difference between only getting to use it once and only getting to use it once where you believe it matters. Your comments seem to ignore what I'm trying to say. Its not inferior because its weaker. The Druid and the Paladin pretty much have only one cooldown by your categorization of where it matters, the Druid will save Survival Instincts + Barkskin for that. The Druid can use Barkskin before that situation and lower damage taken, while the Paladin cannot. Its inferior in the one part of the situation, but as whole its not inferior, just different.

You're also giving examples of non progression attempts. Unless your DPS and Healing are so amazing that you killed Gormok in 12-13 Impales on your first kill and never had tanks die in early rotations. We used a 3 4+HoP 4+HoP 3 3 rotation in the beginning and never saw any reason to change the rotation, and yes in our first kill we got to 2 outta 3 of the last rotation. We no longer even see the last rotation of 3 and more often than not is 3 4 4 1 these days or 3 4 4 1 1. During our first attempts at killing them more often than not it was me getting killed in the 3rd rotation because I had no cooldown for the whole fight thanks to Forbearance. This was changed so the Druid took the 1st 3rd and 5th rotation because he could use Barskin for the 3rd and Barkskin + Survival Instincts for the 5th and I got no HoP after the 2nd. During the learning attempts having the Druid take less damage during his rotations helped immensely. It was more often that I was being murdered in the early wipes. However, even after a few weeks in there we don't even need to use HoPs and I don't need a cooldown to survive the 4th rotation.

Perhaps my guild doens't have the gifted DPS that your alts have. Our main DPS takes 12 to 13 Impales to kill Gormok. I don't even want to think what our alt team would take. You may want to realize that not all of us are in top world guilds.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Meloree » Mon Dec 07, 2009 2:56 pm

Meyrinn,

I only used the alt-run because it's the only direct two-tank experience I have. Our mains run has always used a 3 tank rotation (2, 2, 2), and our progression kill took 13 impales. I've always claimed this fight is badly undertuned, at least I'm consistent. So, my only progression example isn't relevant, because we never had a tank death on P1, the damage simply wasn't that bad. And our druid was out for some reason that night, we did it with Paladin/War/DK. However, mea culpa, I didn't use a progression example there.

I guess I see where we have a disconnect, but I don't know how to resolve it. Neither of us seem to be willing to agree on the usage of "inferior". I think of it as "It's possible that a paladin will need outside cooldowns once per two minutes, where Barkskin is both sufficient and rewards being used at a frequency of once per minute, but the converse situation is that the druid needs outside cooldowns once per minute when Barkskin is not sufficient". In other words, in the balancing disadvantaged cases, the downside for Barkskin is harder to cope with. Adding Bear Stand vs. AD leads to a similar argument. When AD is sufficient to recover, then the Paladin needs no outside cooldowns, and the Bear needs them 2 out of every 3 minutes. When AD isn't sufficient, the paladin needs outside cooldowns once per 2 minutes, and the Bear needs them 2 out of every 3 minutes.

In 3.3, which was the original thrust of this particular tangent, Paladins will have a strictly superior cooldown loadout. The only way a bear has a superior cooldown loadout then is in the unlikely situation that a) AD is totally useless, b) Barkskin is sufficient to deal with the damage, and c) Bear Stand is also sufficient. Then and only then, a paladin has 1 cooldown per minute (DP + DG), and the bear has 1.33 (Barkskin + Bear Stand).

So, yes, given all that, I'm going to continue to maintain that Barkskin is an inferior cooldown, as well it should be, because bears have other advantages to compensate. I've even gone so far, in the past, as to say that Bears will probably be the strongest tanks in ICC because of those other advantages.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby theckhd » Tue Jan 05, 2010 2:18 pm

I wanted to revisit this thread for two reasons:

  1. I noticed that I never capped the stack size at 10 in the code I posted. Luckily this wasn't a problem in the simulations because of the high drop-off chance.
  2. In the last round, we ran the simulation assuming a boss attack speed of 2.4 seconds. The reality is that we're seeing boss swing speeds of closer to 1 second, which makes a drastic difference for this trinket.

Here's the numbers for the iteration simulations. I've also included "ramp time" which is the number of events required to build up a 10-stack from zero given the boss's attack speed.

Boss attack speed of 1 second (10^6 iterations, or 100k events)
Code: Select all
    Avoidance    p    uptime    mean stack size   ramp time
    40        0.36     98.2      9                 29.5
    45        0.33     97.5      8.7               32.3
    50        0.30     96.2      8.1               35.7
    60        0.24     92.0      6.4               44.8


Boss attack speed of 2.4 seconds (10^6 iterations, or ~41k events)
Code: Select all
    Avoidance    p    uptime    mean stack size   ramp time
    40        0.36     84.5      4.1               70.9
    45        0.33     81        3.6               77.6
    50        0.30     77.8      2.9               85.6
    60        0.24     68        2                107.6


I can also go back and calculate q(n) for the various cases (p here is the same p used above, I adjusted properly for the notation change in the previous derivation). This is the probability that the buff will not fall off during a fight with a continuous series of n events.

For a boss that swings once per second, n is equal to the length of the fight in seconds:
Code: Select all
                     n
Avoid    12       25       75       125      250 
40%     96.3%    88.1%    62.4%    44.3%    18.7%
45%     94.7%    83.4%    51.3%    31.5%     9.3%
50%     92.6%    77.7%    39.6%    20.2%     3.7%
60%     86.4%    63.2%    18.9%     5.7%     0.3%


For a boss with 2.4 swing speed, these values of n correspond to fight lengths of 30 seconds, 1 minute, 3 minutes, 5 minutes, and 10 minutes.
Code: Select all
                     n
Avoid    12       25       75       125            250 
40%     46.9%    17.5%    0.40%    0.0090%    0.0000007029%
45%     42.1%    14.0%    0.20%    0.0029%    0.0000000706%
50%     37.6%    11.2%    0.10%    0.0010%    0.0000000082%
60%     29.4%     7.4%    0.04%    0.0002%    0.0000000003%


Obviously there's a noticeable difference in these two situations. For fast-swinging bosses, the organ is a decent trinket, though for normal fight lengths of 5 minutes or so there's still a good 90-95% chance your buff will drop off at some point during the fight, requiring 30 seconds to build it back up.

For a slow-swinging boss, the trinket quickly becomes abysmal. You're nearly guaranteed the buff will drop off multiple times, and the average stack size will be low, netting you under 100 stamina. Of course, the armor itself is going to be worth around 170 stamina for a purely physical boss encounter, but there are better trinket options that don't have the severe ramp-up and drop-off difficulties.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby yappo » Wed Jan 06, 2010 5:01 pm

So, translated into current content, does this mean it's useful for solotanking Saurfang, and nothing much more?
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby theckhd » Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:52 pm

It could be worthwhile on Marrowgar if Bone Storm can keep it up.

Deathwhisper, Saurfang, and Festergut all have tank swaps.

Gunship potentially has "retreat time" if you're tanking the captain, and if you're tanking adds there will be periods with nothing attacking you.

Could be worth using on Rotface if you're tanking the boss, useless if you're tanking adds though.

Tanking Putricide it could be good for phases 1 and 2, but phase 3 has tank swaps. Since phase 3 is the dangerous part for the tank, it's probably not a good choice for this fight either.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Solare » Fri Jan 08, 2010 12:06 am

I don't suppose anyone actually has it and can test to see if it procs on partial or full blocks?
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Awyndel » Fri Jan 08, 2010 12:30 pm

Sounds like another tank proc blizz has really nailed. When do they learn we don't like procs.

Saying the rep ring is working as intented is a big slap in the face.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Senador » Fri Jan 08, 2010 12:59 pm

It could be worthwhile on Marrowgar if Bone Storm can keep it up.

Deathwhisper, Saurfang, and Festergut all have tank swaps.

Gunship potentially has "retreat time" if you're tanking the captain, and if you're tanking adds there will be periods with nothing attacking you.

Could be worth using on Rotface if you're tanking the boss, useless if you're tanking adds though.

Tanking Putricide it could be good for phases 1 and 2, but phase 3 has tank swaps. Since phase 3 is the dangerous part for the tank, it's probably not a good choice for this fight either.


Expanding on this a bit too. From what we've seen in PTR, Council involves a bunch of casting from the various bosses, so slower swing times there to keep the stack up. Sindragosa and Blood Queen both have air phases that will cause the stacks to fade as well.

The only real places I can see it being that great on are Marrowgar if you stay in during Bonestorms to keep it refreshed (But this is a non issue since on normal his damage isn't enough to warrent such measures that can't be substituted with more consistant trinkets) and Rotface, who's tank damage is likely the last reason a wipe will be called on the encounter.
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Re: Unidentifiable Organ - paging Theck?

Postby Phonic » Tue Jan 12, 2010 11:10 am

This dropped in out Put10 kill last night. Our warrior MT took it without even asking, but I'm definitely not complaining :)

I'll ask him to do some testing on the proc and can report back. Theck, if we're still interested, let me know what if there any specific situations that want to be tested.
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