[Ret] Rawr.exe

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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby fafhrd » Thu Jul 02, 2009 2:57 pm

Joanadark wrote:Thats my point though, the randomness of crit in a small sample size means that small gains in crit chance really don't matter much, they dissapear completely within the normal variance of the RNG. Gains in crit do not compensate for it's randomness, unless the amount of crit you stack is massive, which isn't really viable.


Your point is missing the fact that because of the randomness of crit (and other things) small gains in AP really don't matter much either. They will disappear in normal variance of the RNG too. If you're trying to make any decisions that involve a random variable (or a dozen of them), trusting statistics to help you choose which to tweak is the only way you're going to make the right one.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Joanadark » Thu Jul 02, 2009 2:59 pm

Actually, you've got a 40% chance of getting at least one more crit just from the DS (remember, it procs seals which can also crit). Factor in all our abilities and you easily will get extra crits with high probability. Yes, crit increases the variance of your DPS, but for any reasonable length fight things are going to average out decently.


heres the thing though, the 4-peice bonus doesnt affect the seal proc off Divine Storm, or that off CS. It doesnt affect seal at all, nor white damage, nor judgement, nor exorcism.
And a full BiS off-set gear list has far more crit than the 4-peice t8.5 gear set as well as more AP. Almost 5.5% more in fact.

So saying "but the crit averages out cause it affects all your abilities" doesnt fly in the case of the 4-peice bonus, because, simply, it doesn't affect anything else. It only affects CS and DS, which, in a DPS burn scenario, you will only be using a fairly low number of times. And everything else that your DPS consists of, notable white swings and seal procs, over 75% of our total damage in fact, will NOT be affected by the 4-peice bonus, and will actually be 5.5% crit chance LOWER than the off-set gear set.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Dorvan » Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:03 pm

Joanadark wrote:So saying "but the crit averages out cause it affects all your abilities" doesnt fly in the case of the 4-peice bonus, because, simply, it doesn't affect anything else. It only affects CS and DS, which, in a DPS burn scenario, you will only be using a fairly low number of times. And everything else that your DPS consists of, notable white swings and seal procs, over 75% of our total damage in fact, will NOT be affected by the 4-peice bonus, and will actually be 5.5% crit chance LOWER than the off-set gear set.


Could you post your two sets so I know what I'm comparing? Also, see my comment about raid-wide DPS numbers: everyone is making crit vs AP decisions, so in the grand scheme of things you really will see things average out. Sure, maybe one attempt you get unlucky with the RNG, but more than likely a another person got lucky with their RNG. With all the numbers flying around, the raid is optimized if everyone optimizes their average case DPS rather than their worst-case DPS.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby fafhrd » Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:09 pm

Oh if you're talking solely about your 4pc, let me bow out of the conversation. That's not what I quoted and not what you seemed to be responding to at all when you replied. I wouldn't be too thrilled about a set bonus that increased my crit on 2 abilities by 10% either.

In the general case though, I routinely raid with ~63% crit on all attacks, 67-78% on specific ones. That does NOT mean however that I can say "gee i crit so much already, I can put an AP gem in my next socket instead of an agi one because that'll GUARANTEE a dps increase" - nothing can guarantee a DPS increase for one attempt, we can only work out on average what will guarantee a DPS increase over an infinite number of attempts.

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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Joanadark » Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:12 pm

I'll upload it to filefront. I'm comparing to the Human Alliance Hard Mode + All items file from the EJ thread linked.

Gimme a few to upload mine.

Oh if you're talking solely about your 4pc, let me bow out of the conversation. That's not what I quoted and not what you seemed to be responding to at all when you replied. I wouldn't be too thrilled about a set bonus that increased my crit on 2 abilities by 10% either.

In the general case though, I routinely raid with ~63% crit on all attacks, 67-78% on specific ones. That does NOT mean however that I can say "gee i crit so much already, I can put an AP gem in my next socket instead of an agi one because that'll GUARANTEE a dps increase" - nothing can guarantee a DPS increase for one attempt, we can only work out on average what will guarantee a DPS increase over an infinite number of attempts.

edit: afk bus


yeah, my original question was "why do all the BiS lists seeem to revolve around OMG MUST HAVE 4-PIECE!!?" that doesnt make any sense to me.

And stop showing off your OP crit, silly hunter!
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Joanadark » Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:14 pm

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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Dorvan » Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:17 pm

Well, you can be thrilled about it or not, but it's still worth 140 DPS in full BiS gear, which is more than you get by converting over to 239 gear.

I'll look at your file now.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Joanadark » Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:19 pm

Well, you can be thrilled about it or not, but it's still worth 140 DPS in full BiS gear, which is more than you get by converting over to 239 gear.


Where are you getting that from? Somehow I'm very surprised if our DPS really scales so badly that going from normal drops to full hard-mode drops isnt even worth 140 DPS increase. No other class scales nearly that badly.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Dorvan » Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:28 pm

Joanadark wrote:Where are you getting that from? Somehow I'm very surprised if our DPS really scales so badly that going from normal drops to full hard-mode drops isnt even worth 140 DPS increase. No other class scales nearly that badly.


I'm saying the 4 piece buff alone is worth 140 DPS as modeling in Rawr (the 2 piece bonus is worth an additional 44 DPS). So bascially you need to make up 184 DPS from upgrading just 4 pieces of gear from 226 to 239 (remember, you'll already be using one offset piece regardless, as well as everywhere in non-tier slots) just to break even.

Having looked at the sets a little more closely, the results I'm seeing make sense. After fixing a couple discrepancies in settings between your set and the optimal one (notably mob type), your set come in about 140 DPS lower. First of all, it's just not that huge of a gain by ilevel: you upgrade legs, helm, shoulders, and belt to 239, but you also downgrade you feet and one ring. So still an increase in ilevel, but not that much. Furthermore, the overall stats you end up with aren't all that appreciably stellar. Sure you gain 4.86% crit, but you also lose 2.45% haste and 150 AP. That's not enough of a gain to offset the value of the 2 and four piece set bonuses. In fact, even if you consider the 4 piece to have absolutely no value whatsoever, the two sets are a wash.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Modal » Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:18 pm

Joanadark wrote:Its the same reason why Holy Paladins stopped stacking crit in naxx, and started stacking int. More crit simply didn't continue doing much for them.


All the theorycraft I've seen shows that crit actually has increasing returns for holy paladins. More crit makes the crit you have more valuable.

Holy paladins prioritize Int because it gives crit, spellpower, and amazing mana regen, plus they have a 15% scaling talent. Talents and, most importantly, Replenishment make Int better, but crit is still really really good. Intellect is getting nerfed for them in 3.2, though, but then again crit is getting nerfed harder.

More on topic, I use Rawr as a comparative tool--it will show you what will increase or decrease your dps from where it is, but it doesn't do a very good job of actually predicting dps, even under ideal circumstances.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Fedaykin98 » Tue Jul 21, 2009 6:19 am

1) Joana, it seems like you are reasoning intuitively, rather than mathematically, which works for a lot of things, but in this case, maybe not. Any thoughts?

2) What's particularly good about the 4pc T8 is that it selectively buffs the crit of your two most powerful attacks by a large amount. That means that whatever item budget was presumably spent on that bonus was spent in a far, far more efficient way than plain Crit, which buffs everything. That said, I know nothing about set bonus budgeting.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Elsie » Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:29 am

I agree, you seem to be thinking intuitively instead of mathematically. Specifically, you are making a case similar to the 'intuitive' answer to the Birthday Paradox seen at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_paradox.

Specifically, think about this.
Out of 1 attack, what are the odds with 50% crit chance that one will not crit? The answer is obviously 0.5
Out of 1 attack, what are the odds with 60% crit chance that one will not crit? The answer is obviously 0.4

Out of 25 attacks, what are the odds with 50% crit chance that none will crit?
The answer would simply be (0.5)^25 = 0.0000000298023223876953125

Out of 25 attacks, what are the odds with 60% crit chance that none will crit?
This answer ends up as 0.0000000001125899906842624

To see the difference:
0.0000000298023223876953125
0.0000000001125899906842624

What's this mean? Well, the odds to get at least one crit with 50% crit chance is 99.99999993%, and with 60% crit chance it's 99.999999999993%. This may not look like much, but the 60% crit chance is relatively over 100 times less likely to go without a crit.

Put more simply, Let X be the number of crits you want to expect, and A be the chance you can crit, and B be the chance you can't crit. The likelihood of at least X crits in Y trials is 1 - A^(X) *B^(Y-X).

Disclaimer: The above is sound of mind, but the body has been awake on coffee for far too long.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Joanadark » Wed Jul 22, 2009 7:09 am

Specifically, you are making a case similar to the 'intuitive' answer to the Birthday Paradox seen at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_paradox.


thanks, that was an interesting read.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Elsie » Wed Jul 22, 2009 7:27 am

Joanadark wrote:
Specifically, you are making a case similar to the 'intuitive' answer to the Birthday Paradox seen at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_paradox.


thanks, that was an interesting read.

It's also good for trolling general chat.
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Re: [Ret] Rawr.exe

Postby Modal » Wed Jul 22, 2009 10:55 am

Heh, once at Thanksgiving my brother and sister noticed that they had both married individuals born in the same month as they were (July for my brother & his wife, Dec. for my sister and her husband). This prompted someone to ask, "What are the chances that you'll end up marrying someone born in March, too!?" (my birth month). Of course the tone suggested they thought this was in fact a remote possibility...

People are not naturally very good at probabilistic reasoning.
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