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[Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Jedah » Mon Jul 13, 2009 8:54 am

Bundy wrote:I just wanted someone to admit luck is a part of the game, so thank you. I dont rely on luck, im just saying that if if Spec B has the potential to beat Spec A in any given situation, you cannot say Spec A is better flat out. You can talk all day about what supposed to happen, what should happen, and whats likely to happen. What actualy happens is all that matters.


Let's say i'm really lucky and DPS a fight as prot, and 100% of my devastates proc Sword & Board and I out DPS you... does this now mean that my prot spec is viable for DPS? The answer is clearly no.

Please, stop trying to rebut supported mathematical reasoning with some random, unfounded, and inexperienced comments to the effect of "well it looks like i did some nice damage thar with herioc strike."

If you wish to remain ignorant about the subject, fine, don't let me stop you from making "unique" choices. The problem I have arises when other people read the inaccurate things you write on the subject as truth.
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby fafhrd » Mon Jul 13, 2009 9:30 am

Bundy wrote:
You really should read the tooltips on the abilities you're talking about at least. You know those huge HS crits? Critting for 6k+? Well guess what, if you hadn't heroic stuck, you'd have crit for 5k anyway, not spent 2-12 rage on it, and generated 30-40 rage more from the white hit landing. You know why? Because heroic strike isn't an extra attack, it's a replacement of your next mainhand attack (which is your only rage generating attack as arms). All the heroic strike is doing damage-wise is adding 495 damage to your regular melee swing, and preventing it from glancing.

Sudden death on the other hand, is an actual extra attack. When you see it critting for 6-9k, it's an actual extra 6-9k damage, not just an extra 1k damage. And it absolutely does NOT take "a hell of alot more rage", because like I said in my first post about that, the rage cost of a heroic strike isn't the paltry 12 rage for pressing the HS button, it's that 12 plus the 30-40 rage you would have generated from the white attack you're replacing with a heroic strike.


I know what the tooltips say and I know HS takes the place of your normal swing, which is why I wouldnt sapm it. I never said HS was a better source of damage than Execute, I know that its not. But improving HS greatly seemed better to me than improving execute a tiny bit. A 6k crit HS that costs 2 rage, is better than a 4-5k reg hit execute that costs 25 rage.


If you're stil saying this, you still don't know what the tooltip says.

There are no HSs that cost 2 rage. They are costing you 30-50 rage, because you're not generating any rage from the white swing you replaced with an HS.

There are no 6k crit HS. There is a 5k crit white swing, and 1k extra damage from making that white a HS instead and getting a crit.

You gained 1k damage for around 40 rage, and wasted 8 talent points in the prot tree to increase by 15% the chance that it's 1k instead of 0.5k.
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Bundy » Mon Jul 13, 2009 10:51 pm

There are no HSs that cost 2 rage. They are costing you 30-50 rage, because you're not generating any rage from the white swing you replaced with an HS.


No, the HS itself would cost 2 rage, what could have been generated by the white swing is not diffinite. What if my rage bar is full I need to dump some out? It happens.

There are no 6k crit HS. There is a 5k crit white swing, and 1k extra damage from making that white a HS instead and getting a crit


Except the white swing probably would not have crited so reg white hit = 1.5k-2k, crit HS 5-6k...hmmmmm

Please, stop trying to rebut supported mathematical reasoning with some random, unfounded, and inexperienced comments to the effect of "well it looks like i did some nice damage thar with herioc strike."


I just dont see how anyone can state these things when luck/chance is a factor. Crits are part of the game that increase your "chance" to do more damage. Alot of things in the game revolve around chance, yet you guys can walk around saying spec A is the best, period. I just dont think its that simple. With my increased crit chance, I may beat you in dps on one fight, and you may beat me on the next, no one knows untill it happens because luck/chance is involved.

Let's say i'm really lucky and DPS a fight as prot, and 100% of my devastates proc Sword & Board and I out DPS you... does this now mean that my prot spec is viable for DPS? The answer is clearly no.


I see your point, but obviously thats taking it to the extreme and its ridiculous.
How exactly do you define viable?
It sounds like your saying my spec choice is not even usable.

Im not trying to say my spec is king or its the only way. Im also not insulting people for not using my chosen spec "cough". If someone asks for advice on specs, I simply tell them what I chose and why I chose it, its up to them to decide if thats whats right for them because different people like different things. Why cant anyone understand that sometimes its fun and just great to beat something, but not how its supposed to be done.

Quick example. Has anyone played final fantasy 7? The optional Emerald/Ruby weapons. Every guide I read said the same thing, "you have to get knights of the round to stand a chance"
Completly untrue, just the same as " you have to spec this exact way to be good dps" Theres more than one way to skin a cat I believe is the saying.
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Dorvan » Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:14 pm

Bundy wrote:No, the HS itself would cost 2 rage, what could have been generated by the white swing is not diffinite. What if my rage bar is full I need to dump some out? It happens.


Yes, you will gain rage from the white hit, and to discount it is foolish. It's called opportunity cost, another very important concept for knowing how to play what is ultimately a glorified spreadsheet.

I just dont see how anyone can state these things when luck/chance is a factor. Crits are part of the game that increase your "chance" to do more damage. Alot of things in the game revolve around chance, yet you guys can walk around saying spec A is the best, period. I just dont think its that simple. With my increased crit chance, I may beat you in dps on one fight, and you may beat me on the next, no one knows untill it happens because luck/chance is involved.


Statistics allows you to analyze uncertainty. One spec may not beat the other 100% of the time, but it may well do more damage on average, and you can quantify both the average difference in damage and the probability that one spec beats another. Saying that you'll choose a spec that does less damage because 10% of the time the RNG gods align in your favor and let you win is not good decision making.



Look, if you like how you play fine, it's your $15. But don't go giving advice when you really don't have the faintest idea of how to compare DPS effectiveness.
Last edited by Dorvan on Tue Jul 14, 2009 12:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby fafhrd » Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:33 pm

Bundy wrote:
There are no HSs that cost 2 rage. They are costing you 30-50 rage, because you're not generating any rage from the white swing you replaced with an HS.


No, the HS itself would cost 2 rage, what could have been generated by the white swing is not diffinite. What if my rage bar is full I need to dump some out? It happens.


You're the one who set up the comparison: "A 6k crit HS that costs 2 rage, is better than a 4-5k reg hit execute that costs 25 rage." If you don't need the rage then the 25 rage cost of the execute isn't relevant either, it's just more damage than the HS whose cost we can also ignore. If you really don't need the rage though, you're going to do both the HS and the execute at the same time, and you likely don't care that the HS gave you back 10 rage by critting. It will take you 2-5 crit heroic strikes for the glyph to make up the rage of non-heroic white swing though, and as arms you're unlikely to chain that many HSs in a row without being out of rage for much more damaging attacks (OP, SD, MS, Rend).

Bundy wrote:
There are no 6k crit HS. There is a 5k crit white swing, and 1k extra damage from making that white a HS instead and getting a crit


Except the white swing probably would not have crited so reg white hit = 1.5k-2k, crit HS 5-6k...hmmmmm


You say it probably wouldn't have crit, I say it probably would have :) (not because I believe it, but if you can say something that supports your argument is probable, I can do the same). Talents are only 15% more crit - even without that 15% you can be as likely to crit as not, it's not like speccing Incite (the only way I know of to increase your HS crit chance over your white attacks, other than some reduction by glancing of course) takes you from 5% crit to 80% crit. To get that 15% though, you spent nearly an expansion's worth of talent points which gain you nothing else. You could do things by combining those 8 points and a glyph slot to get higher dps than 15% more of your least damaging attack critting and giving you 10 rage when they do.

Bundy wrote:I just dont see how anyone can state these things when luck/chance is a factor. Crits are part of the game that increase your "chance" to do more damage. Alot of things in the game revolve around chance, yet you guys can walk around saying spec A is the best, period. I just dont think its that simple. With my increased crit chance, I may beat you in dps on one fight, and you may beat


I don't see how you can insist that these things can't be stated though :( Luck/chance are only a factor for individual attempts. They are not a factor in anything in the general case - with your spec and priority you certainly might beat someone else in dps on one fight - in fact you are almost guaranteed to beat people. However if the two of you do the fight a thousand times, the guy with the better mathed out spec will win more often than you will - there is no doubt about that at all.

There might be several things players misunderstand about game mechanics (although I doubt this), and such misunderstanding would lead to the math models being wrong - however the role of chance is not one of these - the math on the effect of random hits/crits/procs is very sound, having been developed, refined and proven for hundreds of years, long before anyone ever dreamt of playing WoW.

And I'm not saying that a particular spec is the best, although I guess the other guy in the thread is - there are quite a few variations of specs that people use, some of which are believed to be better in certain situations than others, some with certain gear than others etc. However most people will use math to evaluate their choices in these, and things like not glyphing execution and rend as arms, or spending 8 points in prot to get Incite as arms generally fail the math test. Why do people want to use math to decide instead of personal preference? Because there's no rational way to ignore the math if your goal is DPS - if you're healing or maybe tanking you have ancillary concerns, but DPS 99% of the time is a big equation you plug several hundred numbers into, and get one number out at the end - your goal is the figure out which of those input numbers you can control, and then tweaking them to get the biggest number at the end.
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Bundy » Tue Jul 14, 2009 2:15 am

However if the two of you do the fight a thousand times, the guy with the better mathed out spec will win more often than you will - there is no doubt about that at all.


In theory yes, but not in reality. Flip a coin 50 times and it wont be split 25/25, thats not how it works in RL.

However most people will use math to evaluate their choices in these, and things like not glyphing execution and rend as arms, or spending 8 points in prot to get Incite as arms generally fail the math test.


Yes, you will gain rage from the white hit, and to discount it is foolish. It's called opportunity cost, another very important concept for knowing how to play what is ultimately a glorified spreadsheet.


I wasnt dicounting the white damage rage, I was mearly saying its not a deffinite 40 rage. It could be alot less.

And I dont believe at all that the first 5 points in prot were wasted. Im getting more rage from bloodrage, and more AoE damage/attack speed reduction which could help not only in solo play but in a grp situation as well. Paly tanks can only do an attack speed reduction to one target at a time right? Do DK/Bears even have a debuff like this?

in fact thats why I ended up not spending those last 8 points in Fury, because to get to those last ones I felt I had to waste points. What are you supposed to get? Booming voice? Anyways, ive already said it like 3 times now, but once more.
My spec is not set in stone, if I end up not liking it or I see good reason to change it, then I will, its that simple.

And I am glyphed for Execute, just not rend, although I used to be. Now im specced MS, HS, Execute. I dont mind reapllying rend a few seconds earlier. But again, its not final, im just trying it out and it seems to be working pretty good for me.
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Epimer » Tue Jul 14, 2009 2:52 am

Bundy wrote:In theory yes, but not in reality. Flip a coin 50 times and it wont be split 25/25, thats not how it works in RL.


Oh dear. What about if you flip it 500 times? 1000 times?
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Bundy » Tue Jul 14, 2009 6:46 am

Oh dear. What about if you flip it 500 times? 1000 times?


The same applies no matter how many times you flip it. But "theoreticaly its supposed to end up close to even the more and more you flip it. But these things are all just theory, just because something should go a certain way mathmaticaly, doesnt mean its going to.
And when you guys say spec A is better DPS on average, could you clarify please? I mean by average do you mean the median, range, mean? We all know how graphs can be manipulated to look a certain way even though it may not reflect the data in the best way.
But if my spec does 4k-6k depending on luck with crits, and your spec does 5k every time, well I dont know about you but thats even to me.
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Baelor » Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:32 am

I think that if Theck wandered into this thread, a blood vessel might pop in his head resulting from the stats use/abuse.
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby amh » Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:46 am

Bundy wrote:And I dont believe at all that the first 5 points in prot were wasted. Im getting more rage from bloodrage, and more AoE damage/attack speed reduction which could help not only in solo play but in a grp situation as well. Paly tanks can only do an attack speed reduction to one target at a time right? Do DK/Bears even have a debuff like this?


Yup.

Infected Wounds Rank 3
Your Shred, Maul, and Mangle attacks cause an Infected Wound in the target. The Infected Wound reduces the movement speed of the target by 25% and the attack speed by 10%. Stacks up to 2 times. Lasts 12 sec.


Improved Icy Touch Rank 3
20 yd range
Your Icy Touch does an additional 15% damage and your Frost Fever reduces melee and ranged attack speed by an additional 6%.

+
Pestilence
1 Blood Melee Range
Instant
Spreads existing Blood Plague and Frost Fever infections from your target to all other enemies within 10 yards.

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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Bundy » Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:53 am

So do these abilities do AoE or one at a time?
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Dorvan » Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:01 am

Bundy wrote:In theory yes, but not in reality. Flip a coin 50 times and it wont be split 25/25, thats not how it works in RL.


That is correct. It doesn't end there, though. In reality the distribbtion is binomial with parameters (n=50, p=.5), and we can say a lot of the likelihood of various results. Suppose for example that the coin was not weighted evenly, but instead 60/40 heads tails, like two specs that don't do the same damage. Now sure it's possible for tails to come up more after 50 flips, but we don't simply have to leave it at there, we can figure out specifically how often tails will come out the winner after 50 flips. In this case it's binomial (n=50, p=.4), which can be approximated by a normal distribution with average of 20 and variance of 12.

Under this distribution, the probability of coming up with at least 25 tails is approximately 7.5%. So yes, tails would win out occasionally, but which you rather bet on, what's going to win 7.5% of the time or what's going to win 92.5% of the time?
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Spectrum » Tue Jul 14, 2009 11:42 am

Theorycrafting for max damage is all about figuring out how to average things out to get rid of uncertainty. Granted, sometimes you just have to shoot for the "crit spec" because you can't win unless you get the rare chance event.

Granted, we have one guy in my guild for which the primary purpose of a spec is to see very large numbers pop up occasionally. He dropped his mage for his boomkin because he got annoyed that he could do more dps on a mage with Frost-Fire spec but it wasn't as fun as a 50k Starfire crit on Hodir.
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Dorvan » Tue Jul 14, 2009 4:03 pm

Spectrum wrote:Granted, we have one guy in my guild for which the primary purpose of a spec is to see very large numbers pop up occasionally. He dropped his mage for his boomkin because he got annoyed that he could do more dps on a mage with Frost-Fire spec but it wasn't as fun as a 50k Starfire crit on Hodir.


Odd anecdote, as Frostfire has one of if not the largest crit modifer in game, and is generally considered one of the top specs for Hodir. With the spellpower debuff up on the boss and storm power I was getting some 60k FFB crits on my mage (with some procs going, of course).
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Re: [Warrior] Levelling a new Warrior

Postby Nemuria » Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:00 am

Jedah wrote:I will answer your question with a question - Are you using something every GCD? If you aren't, then you're not using slam enough. If you are, you *might* be using it too much. Slam is the worst choice if you have something else available, but it's the right choice if nothing else available.

The second part, about when to use slam i am not perfectly clear on where you are coming from. I am going to assume you mean "When should I use slam as anything other than the lowest priority GCD attack, considering that I know I am going to have to move in a second?"


Late reply, I am returning from holiday and my account just expired :d...anyway I had time to "work" on the DPS rotation on dummy.
While slam held an average % (about 10%) it really helps overall rage generation and dps. Also changed stuff with Titansteel helm and Strength/AP gems instead of ARP. Won about 500dps, though I should test it raid buffed when account is back.

At about 7 days of played at 80 I don't think it's too bad. I started this toon one year ago and played it very casually. Not hiding the fact that I love 2 handed draenei, Arms spec promised stuff at the end of TBC (then got cut on Wotlk release).
I am seeing alot of concern around warriors utility, in all specs. I can't give an opinion since I don't play in end game, but I have many things to say about the QQ WoW community.
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