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Mitigation Comparisons – 4 tanks

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Postby moduspwnens » Thu Oct 02, 2008 1:01 pm

I'm having difficulty following your spreadsheet, so I'll just ask questions:
    It wasn't totally clear, but did you implement Shield Block being spammed every 40 seconds?

    Did you do the Warrior block value computations correctly? What snowwight posted is correct.

    Looking at your spreadsheet, a Paladin's block chance appears to be 48.2 and a Warrior's is 21.4. I assume Holy Shield is assumed, so without it, a Paladin has 18.2% block and a Warrior has 21.4%. Is that correct?

    It says you're not factoring in base health. Is that still the case?

    According to your stats, the Warrior has only 1.5% more avoidance. Is that correct? I thought the Warrior tier pieces had more.

    The way you tabulated all the gear and buffs isn't clear. Where did you get this info and do you have a link to how it was calculated?

    Explain to me why the "block" under Paladin reads 6059, and the "block" under warrior reads 1882.

    Are you accounting for that the tanks would be facing a mob three levels above them? It appears your avoidance and block %s add up to 100, and I see no place where 0.6 is subtracted from the values.

    What about Redoubt?


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Postby PsiVen » Thu Oct 02, 2008 1:06 pm

Snake-Aes wrote:I don't know, parrygibs are hard to model, and shouldn't be considered over common forms of mitigation at all. They vary with mob damage per swing, mob swing speed, the % of it's damage output that comes from swings...


We're already modeling mobs that deal 100% melee damage anyway.

Parry haste actually isn't that hard to model if I understand it correctly, as its average effect doesn't depend on enemy attack speed (though the dangerousness of the resulting burst obviously will). Find the effective swing rate for a weapon with speed X on class Y and plug in that as the chance per time to trigger the effect.
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Postby snowwight » Thu Oct 02, 2008 1:35 pm

I've studied the spreadsheet since the conclusions seemed out of line with what we've been looking at so far. I think I can answer your questions, Modus.

Shield Block is being modeled.

It appears to have the correct block value modifiers.

Holy Shield is assumed, Redoubt is not modeled since we're looking at boss fights.

base hp appears to be modeled, but not a ranged slot, though I'm not 100% sure what gear is being used.

The avoidance difference seems to be coming from a combination of a slightly higher agi-> dodge rate and the diminishing returns being applied to the total dodge. Essentially the warrior itemization dumps too many points into something which seems to be overpriced at the moment.

I, too, would like to see the total sheet of gear, as that seems to be the only real difference between the model of the spreadsheet and garath and I's simulators.

The "block" column is the amount of damage taken from blocked hits.
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Postby moduspwnens » Thu Oct 02, 2008 1:41 pm

I don't understand how the Warrior blocks 1882 damage while the Pally blocks over three times that. How is that possible?

Not to diss the spreadsheet, I mean, as far as I know, it looks good, but that's the thing about spreadsheets. I made a simulator because I have difficulty trusting spreadsheets. Either way it's good to have positive news about the mitigation gap.
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Postby Strom » Thu Oct 02, 2008 1:54 pm

moduspwnens wrote:I don't understand how the Warrior blocks 1882 damage while the Pally blocks over three times that. How is that possible?


Its actually damage TAKEN from hits that have been blocked. So we are averaging a lot more damage taken from blocked hits then they are (in the timeframe alloted in the spreadsheet).
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Postby Lore » Thu Oct 02, 2008 1:54 pm

If I had to take a stab at it, I'd guess it's saying that, before factoring in Shield Block and Critical Block, the Warrior will have blocked 1882 damage in the same amount of time it takes the Paladin to block 6059.

ie: the Paladin gets 3-4 blocks in while the Warrior only gets one.

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Postby Snake-Aes » Thu Oct 02, 2008 1:57 pm

Lore wrote:EDIT: Ah I'm slow and also wrong. SWEET
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Postby Spectrum » Thu Oct 02, 2008 2:01 pm

Wow, nice work by the theorycrafters out there. I've been waiting for things to settle and hoping all you in beta or excited about it will help make things turn out well for me. :D
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Postby Noradin » Thu Oct 02, 2008 3:00 pm

Snake-Aes wrote:0,0192 dodge per agi on a pally at level 80.

Thing is... I don't think we'll see any agility on our gear, just stuff like totems.

I wonder, indeed, at what point that agility becomes better than dodge.
From the estimated formula here, and the rating table, 1 dodge rating gives us 0,0254 dodge. DodgefromAgi/DodgefromDodge = 0,756. Using the diminishing returns formula, agility trumps dodge when X' = 0,756X
That's quite big amount of dodge there, on the lines of 30% if my napkin math isn't wrong


Don't forget you get armor from agility, too.
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Postby ziggyunderslashone » Thu Oct 02, 2008 3:23 pm

Majiben wrote:That's my point exactly. Warriors will both have a higher number of parriable attacks and a higher chance that any given attack will be parried. This in turn has a minor haste affect on the boss increasing the raw damage taken (before damage taken and block).

While exp has an effect on damage received, parry thrash is more of an issue of taking hits over a short period, where as the sheets major function is to average it all out and give you an average across a period. It would show up, but it would be very minor.

Not saying no, I just feel it would dilute it somewhat.

snowwight wrote:base hp appears to be modeled, but not a ranged slot, though I'm not 100% sure what gear is being used.

Base health is only included in the warrior vs paladin graph, not the sheet proper. Without the dk and drood numbers, the difference would be pronounced.

The ranged slot is accounted for in the current sheet. This served to push warriors slightly further ahead than before. As there are no mitigation sigils, and the best bear mitigation idol is pre-tbc, they're assumed to be using a threat relic.

snowwight wrote:The avoidance difference seems to be coming from a combination of a slightly higher agi-> dodge rate and the diminishing returns being applied to the total dodge. Essentially the warrior itemization dumps too many points into something which seems to be overpriced at the moment.

If I get time tomorrow, I'm going to look at potential solutions to our scaling (changes to RF, non-leapfrogged AD), but I'll try to look more closely at dodge values under DRM, as I was rather suprised to see how close they came. I think its safe to say you're right here though.

snowwight wrote:I, too, would like to see the total sheet of gear, as that seems to be the only real difference between the model of the spreadsheet and garath and I's simulators.

All four are in full Valorous sets, with 213 ilevel "tank" gear in every other slot. I pulled the figures from another model I use, I'll see if I still have the lists, but either way, I should be able to rebuild them, knowing the basis.
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Postby ziggyunderslashone » Thu Oct 02, 2008 3:40 pm

moduspwnens wrote:Are you accounting for that the tanks would be facing a mob three levels above them? It appears your avoidance and block %s add up to 100, and I see no place where 0.6 is subtracted from the values.

0.6 comes from the additional 15 skill boss mobs have (15*0.04), I've used the direct numbers rather than the percentages involved. For example: miss = 0.05+(def-415)*0.0004
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Postby Sabindeus » Thu Oct 02, 2008 3:43 pm

If I can play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I'd like to predict what I believe Ghostcrawler would say upon seeing these numbers:

"World of Warcraft is an evolving game. If it turns out that somewhere down the road, we find in our tests Warriors are pulling ahead of Paladins when using new raid gear, we'll do something about it. But for now, you guys are very close, so it's ok."

And to a certain extent, that's sort of true. At our current gear level, based on the charts that ziggy generated, it doesn't seem like we're THAT far behind. It's just that as gear gets better, the difference becomes much worse. And Ideally we wouldn't be behind at all. :/
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Postby snowwight » Thu Oct 02, 2008 3:51 pm

Sabindeus wrote:If I can play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I'd like to predict what I believe Ghostcrawler would say upon seeing these numbers:

"World of Warcraft is an evolving game. If it turns out that somewhere down the road, we find in our tests Warriors are pulling ahead of Paladins when using new raid gear, we'll do something about it. But for now, you guys are very close, so it's ok."

And to a certain extent, that's sort of true. At our current gear level, based on the charts that ziggy generated, it doesn't seem like we're THAT far behind. It's just that as gear gets better, the difference becomes much worse. And Ideally we wouldn't be behind at all. :/


The trouble is I think the majority (though not all) the gap closing is coming from the inferior warrior itemization.

In other words, the smart warriors and paladins will just avoid the tier set and get off-set gear with maxed out BV and stam. Unfortunately, I believe our superior scaling with stam is slower than their superior scaling with block value, so you can see where this is going.

I was thinking about making a post on the beta forums("Why Blizzard Is Getting Different Numbers" or something) but I want to be careful about how to present this data. The last thing we need is an inaccurate line chart being the only thing people pick up from the thread. If it's truly itemization issues obscuring blizzard's theorycraft, that needs to be made crystal clear. If we're really as close as the chart suggests, then everyone can just breathe a little easier I guess. But I don't think we have the whole story just yet.
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Postby Fridmarr » Thu Oct 02, 2008 3:56 pm

Sabindeus wrote:If I can play Devil's Advocate for a moment, I'd like to predict what I believe Ghostcrawler would say upon seeing these numbers:

"World of Warcraft is an evolving game. If it turns out that somewhere down the road, we find in our tests Warriors are pulling ahead of Paladins when using new raid gear, we'll do something about it. But for now, you guys are very close, so it's ok."

And to a certain extent, that's sort of true. At our current gear level, based on the charts that ziggy generated, it doesn't seem like we're THAT far behind. It's just that as gear gets better, the difference becomes much worse. And Ideally we wouldn't be behind at all. :/


I'm ok with being not "that" far behind only if we are equally ahead somewhere else. Otherwise, GC has mentioned many many times how easy it is to turn a knob to make adjustments, so why not do it? Our mitigation isn't really all that tricky nor does it come with much of a concern over scaling side effects.
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Postby Mica » Thu Oct 02, 2008 5:42 pm

I'd really like to see a graph with paladins at 8% and 10% for righteous fury.
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