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Mitigation Comparisons – 4 tanks

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Postby Deathwing » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:05 am

Are you sure they'll be the preferred tank even when starting naxx? One thing your metrics don't show is average incoming dps. Bears will be sucking down a lot of mana (about equal to pallies/warriors in naxx25, gets much worse after that). And supposedly mana conservation will the name of the game in Wrath.

Also, how many encounters will the tank be in true danger of being splatted at any moment? I've gotten the impression from blue posts that spike damage has been toned down.
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Postby majiben » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:30 am

Deathwing wrote:Are you sure they'll be the preferred tank even when starting naxx? One thing your metrics don't show is average incoming dps. Bears will be sucking down a lot of mana (about equal to pallies/warriors in naxx25, gets much worse after that). And supposedly mana conservation will the name of the game in Wrath.

Also, how many encounters will the tank be in true danger of being splatted at any moment? I've gotten the impression from blue posts that spike damage has been toned down.
Healing needed is not directly proportional with mana needed to keep them up. With downranking fully and utterly killed, any heal you use will be max rank. It's much more mana effcient to know that you can safely use your medium but cheap heals 100% time than having to pop a fast but expensive heal to get another than back up into a safe hp 30% of the time.
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Postby ziggyunderslashone » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:22 am

Deathwing wrote:Are you sure they'll be the preferred tank even when starting naxx? One thing your metrics don't show is average incoming dps. Bears will be sucking down a lot of mana (about equal to pallies/warriors in naxx25, gets much worse after that). And supposedly mana conservation will the name of the game in Wrath.

The avoiding chart roughly charts the amount of damage each class removes per swing. Bears are solid at that to begin with, presumably due to the lack of scaling, needing to start at a higher baseline.

Deathwing wrote:Also, how many encounters will the tank be in true danger of being splatted at any moment? I've gotten the impression from blue posts that spike damage has been toned down.

I'd read that as well. Makes you wonder. In little danger of dying, threat a non issue. Aside from moving about a bit in certain encounters, I'm struggling to see quite what we're striving to achieve.

Vaguely QQ, but I'm genuinely concerned.
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Postby Deathwing » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:58 am

Majiben wrote:
Deathwing wrote:Are you sure they'll be the preferred tank even when starting naxx? One thing your metrics don't show is average incoming dps. Bears will be sucking down a lot of mana (about equal to pallies/warriors in naxx25, gets much worse after that). And supposedly mana conservation will the name of the game in Wrath.

Also, how many encounters will the tank be in true danger of being splatted at any moment? I've gotten the impression from blue posts that spike damage has been toned down.
Healing needed is not directly proportional with mana needed to keep them up. With downranking fully and utterly killed, any heal you use will be max rank. It's much more mana effcient to know that you can safely use your medium but cheap heals 100% time than having to pop a fast but expensive heal to get another than back up into a safe hp 30% of the time.


True, but also consider that just because other classes will inherently take spikier damage than a druid, does not necessarily mean they will need to be topped off all the time.

For instance, a druid requires ~6 hits to go from 100% to 0% with no healing. A DK requires 3. However, the chance that will happen to a druid is 4.4%, while on a DK it's 1.7%. Also consider that a DK will only be in that situation for 9s and 10s every 60s(IBF and UA), making it very hard for those worst-case situations to happen.

So, I'm not really saying it will be one way or the other, I don't have the healing experience(haven't raid healed since my priest in early MC). However, it's quite apparent that healing and tanking mechanics are changing in a major way, and any sort of current conventional wisdom should be reconsidered.


Ziggy,

My point is that the avoidance chart is skewed by health totals. It's still an important stat, but a totally different one.
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Postby ziggyunderslashone » Mon Oct 13, 2008 11:32 am

Deathwing wrote:Ziggy,

My point is that the avoidance chart is skewed by health totals. It's still an important stat, but a totally different one.

Point.
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Postby Sëryph » Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:11 pm

Deathwing wrote:I agree with your thoughts on BS in a spreadsheet. In fact, I'm guessing that's also the reason most DK's favor frost as the best tank spec. As you said, just changes from boss to boss could wildly affect BS uptime, and tanks hate variance.

If you do happen to model BS in your spreadsheet, Seryph's is pretty good. There's been some discussion over at EJ on this topic as well. I've realized my model is a bit convoluted(still), so let me revise it(thanks Banda):

chance to deplete charge = npc's hit rate

5/(hit rate)*(attack speed) = uptime

If one attack is caught in the cooldown:

5/(hit rate)*(attack speed) + 4*(attack speed) = uptime

If 2 attacks are caught in the cooldown:

5/(hit rate)*(attack speed) + 8*(attack speed) = uptime


It's a really simple equation, dumb of me for not picking up on it previously(the cooldown part). As before, that's technically an average, so it's going to be higher than what would really happen, especially as you approach 90%, because you have to discount cases where BS would last over 60s.

I think Seryph said he was going to put this in his sheet.


If i read your graphs right, druids are only in trouble, scaling wise, once past naxx 25 man?


Heres a few updates later the bs formula is from EJ alot of additions beyond that.

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Postby Sëryph » Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:46 pm

ziggyunderslashone wrote:I’ve been playing around with both models you guys have been working with here, really cool stuff. However, any way I look at it, I can’t find a way to fit bone shield into the comparison sheet.

See, as much as it attempts to show how a very specific and defined boss encounter would be dealt with, it also, by virtue of not relying on external elements, shows how the white melee of an encounter would be handled in isolation.

Seconds till death is a misnomer, really it should read “full health pools worth of damage” which aren’t the same thing when healing is applied, but is a less visceral term.

This is why AD doesn’t work in terms of the sheet. It relies on knowing the exact point of health, which over the arbitrary period my sheet deals with doesn’t exist. Bone shield is much the same. It relies not only on the exact number of hits over a set and not arbitrary period, but also any external damage taken. Adds, specials, aoe etc.

The only thing currently in the sheet that acts in this way is holy shield, but this unlike bone shield is specifically designed to hold up permanently in a boss fight.

I’m not awfully keen on conceding, but I think I have to admit that bone shield, due to its charges mechanic, and the need to determine external data, can’t be modelled within the confines of the comparison sheet.

Brilliantly, we have Sëryph’s sheet for comparison between the two death knight specs, but I have learnt that unholy is not only competitive, but under certain circumstances, more powerful. I’ll refer to the modeled dk as frost from now on.


I personally think when comparing frost to unholy frost gets the short end of the stick as all it really gets extra is 3% increased miss and between BS and UA, UA is always 20 seconds but very rarely will BS be below 20 seconds even at low avoidance by the time your in Nax it going to almost never be below 20 seconds and average 30+ seconds uptime.

While I can see why you would have problems modeling it I would definately contend Unholy is by far the better spec.

I plan on getting two Trinkets with high avoidance activates, carrying Indestructable Potions and my spec will include Lichborne.

My plan is to start with BS and when it runs out use IBF, if when that is done BS is not up, I will Use a Trinket and in the rare times neither of those are up I can use Lichborne, and for a back up I can use a potion.

Another thing neither you nor me have modeled is Death Strike, heres a quote from some math I did in another forum

Damage

DS: (.6 WD*1.4*1.05*1.1*.8(armor)) + (178.2*1.4*1.05*1.1*.8 )= 0.7762 WD(weapon damage) + 230.5195

SS: (.6 WD*1.05*1.1*1.13*1.12) + ([226.8 + 113.4*4]*1.05*1.1*1.13*1.12) = 0.8771 WD + 994

Healing

DS: (.7762*3*1.4) + (230.5195*3*1.4)= 3.26 WD + 968.1820

SS: none

Threat

DS: (.7762 WD*1.45) + (230.5195*1.45) + (3.26 WD*.5*1.45) + (968.1820*.5*1.45) = 1.1255 WD + 334.2533 + 2.3635 WD + 701.9320= 3.489 WD + 1036.1853

SS: (0.8771 WD*1.45) + (994*1.45) = 1.2718 WD + 1441.3

Assume 1000 weapon damage as a starting point.

DS = 4525.1853 threat

SS = 2713.1 threat

This does not account for threat lost to over healing but as you can see even at the beginning Death Strike is likely to provide more threat and continues to scale much better.



While the threat may not matter to mitigation comparisons it does show its more than viable to use while tanking for threat. And the 300% healing for a unholy tank(200% for frost) per damage would definitely impact Time to live.
Last edited by Sëryph on Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby ziggyunderslashone » Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:12 pm

Sëryph wrote:While I can see why you would have problems modeling it I would definately contend Unholy is by far the better spec.

Aye, I can see that it almost certainly is. The internal cooldown is an unusual mechanic that has huge (if erratic) potential. If nothing else, it sounds more interesting than frost has become.

But like I say, I don't feel I can include the mechanic without significantly changing the sheets role. If it weren't for your sheet, I'd be rather annoyed about that, but as we have it for direct comparison, I'm content.
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Postby Deathwing » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:15 pm

Seryph,

I think there was a discussion on EJ about a week ago. The healing on DS might not cause any threat. Also, can you post how you got those healing numbers? Not doubting you, just don't know how death strike works.
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Postby Mica » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:26 pm

Could do some ingame tests and actually find out whether healing from DS does cause threat. The ingame API is 100% accurate in regards to threat gained.
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Postby Sëryph » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:35 am

Added Calculations for Death Strike use.

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I posted all the numbers not sure what else you want? The only thing that I guess isn't implicit is the healing which is; 200% of damage for 2 diseases, 250% of damage for 3 diseases, and 300% of damage for 4 diseases.


I'm not in beta or I would test the threat but honestly even if the healing part doesn't cause threat DS looks like its worth using if you look at these numbers.
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Postby Deathwing » Tue Oct 14, 2008 5:09 am

That's what I meant, healing percentage per disease(1+.5). Couple things to note, you applied the DS glyph twice, once to damage and then again to healing. Also, Black Ice no longer affects shadow damage.

I thought the threat multiplier was ~2.08.
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Postby Sëryph » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:44 am

Deathwing wrote:That's what I meant, healing percentage per disease(1+.5). Couple things to note, you applied the DS glyph twice, once to damage and then again to healing. Also, Black Ice no longer affects shadow damage.

I thought the threat multiplier was ~2.08.


Yeah thats a Quote from a while ago, and it real doesn't effect the comparison because the shadow not effecting SS just makes DS better and uping the threat coefficient would effect both.


And yes I applied it twice read the glyph again "Damage and Healing increased by 2%...", it applies on both calculations. Athough I should have used a different multiplier as its impossible to maintain 100 rp, I found a rotation where its possible to average more than a 1.3 multiplier though w/o BoS so thats what I used in my spread sheet.
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Postby Deathwing » Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:45 am

That's going to be a tough one to figure out(just from reading it). 96% healing boost from one glyph would be pretty big.

As for a rotation to maintain max rp, you don't have to use all your rp just because you have some. In single target situations, I would use rune strike whenever up, and in AE situations, unholy blight. That's it, no other RP abilities. The loss of threat should be compensated by the healing threat(if DS's healing causes threat). You get into a gray area with overhealing, though.
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Postby Sëryph » Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:25 pm

Deathwing wrote:That's going to be a tough one to figure out(just from reading it). 96% healing boost from one glyph would be pretty big.

As for a rotation to maintain max rp, you don't have to use all your rp just because you have some. In single target situations, I would use rune strike whenever up, and in AE situations, unholy blight. That's it, no other RP abilities. The loss of threat should be compensated by the healing threat(if DS's healing causes threat). You get into a gray area with overhealing, though.



Edit: Lets not get into a threat discussion, this post is supposed to be about comparing the 4 tanks mitigation.
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