Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Anything, including off-topic posts

Moderators: Fridmarr, Worldie, Aergis, Sabindeus, PsiVen

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby halabar » Mon Aug 05, 2013 1:08 pm

fuzzygeek wrote:
halabar wrote:Perhaps the biggest mistake that Blizz made along the way was to say "Max level is where the real game begins", and then to design content to reinforce that,


The problem with this is you spend six hours being level 84. You spend six months being level 85. Numbers are illustrative only, but you get the point. Leveling up is something you do once per character, but max level stuff is content you do over and over and over and over again.

Unless they completely change game mechanics to, like, FF5 Job System where leveling *is* content, I don't see how they can do anything different.


Well, "back in the day.." on my hunter, I distinctly remember the corpse-run from the space-goat starting area to the BE starting zone to tame the cat there. I also remember the detailed research and camping to tame specific pets to learn new abilities. Pride and accomplishment in that.

Now? There's nothing in the leveling process that's memorable.

Point is that when only the end game is relevant, and each section of that is only relevant for 4-5 months, and the previous section's grinds are rendered moot, it's just a lot easier for people to burn out and quit, and there's not much there now to bring them back.
Amirya wrote:... because everyone needs a Catagonskin rug.

twinkfist wrote:i feel bad for the Mogu...having to deal with alcoholic bears.
User avatar
halabar
 
Posts: 9379
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 8:21 am
Location: <in the guild that shall not be named>

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Sagara » Mon Aug 05, 2013 1:26 pm

I'm surprised there's been nearly zero mention of th Bartle theory on gaming. As it really feels like people are looking at their own little quadrant...
Quick reminder:
Image
When that day comes, seek all the light and wonder of this world, and fight.

Worldie wrote:I used to like it [mean] back on Sylvanas.

Queldan - EU Stormrage (H) - Good night, sweet prince.
User avatar
Sagara
 
Posts: 3453
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:04 am
Location: Belgium

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Darielle » Mon Aug 05, 2013 2:34 pm

Well, "back in the day.." on my hunter, I distinctly remember the corpse-run from the space-goat starting area to the BE starting zone to tame the cat there. I also remember the detailed research and camping to tame specific pets to learn new abilities. Pride and accomplishment in that.

Now? There's nothing in the leveling process that's memorable.


I think that's a silly claim to make. They put a lot more effort nowadays in little things along the way. Even if it's something sily like "Wild Mountain Goat bleats at Darielle" or that Yak mob in Dread Wastes that drops a 3-use mounty item, to rares or the Whale Shark etc. The story arcs do work better together and have their own cookies or breadcrumbs all over the place.

However, I would consider a "gamer" to be someone who did more than casual gaming - I would classify that as a different category, and with a known overlap (meaning the study could still be good).


I don't see how you could nowadays, since casual games are a huge, huge component of gaming and game development in general, and how gaming as a whole has evolved and become more mainstream.
Darielle
 
Posts: 1319
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:41 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Lieris » Mon Aug 05, 2013 4:11 pm

Nooska wrote:Well if there are more explayers than players, and subscriptions are at 8.3 million, there has to have been at least 16.6 million players over the course of time.
And my second part is actually what you are saying - the total number of active players would remain the same, so when we have had a peak of ~12 million (iirc), the total number should be higher, unless no new players replaced leaving players since the peak, and the current 8.3 all played during the peak.


Blizzard have sold around 12m boxed copies of classic WoW and in most Asian markets they don't need to buy WoW to play it. With that in mind, there are almost certainly more ex-players than current.

I think there is a very real possibility that subscriber numbers will be down to around 5m this time next year especially if a new expansion is a year off, in which case F2P is probably inevitable. Blizzard have too much pride to just watch their baby become increasingly irrelevant and the higher ups will be on their case to turn this around.
Lieris
Maintankadonor
 
Posts: 2181
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:49 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby halabar » Mon Aug 05, 2013 4:56 pm

Lieris wrote:
Nooska wrote:Well if there are more explayers than players, and subscriptions are at 8.3 million, there has to have been at least 16.6 million players over the course of time.
And my second part is actually what you are saying - the total number of active players would remain the same, so when we have had a peak of ~12 million (iirc), the total number should be higher, unless no new players replaced leaving players since the peak, and the current 8.3 all played during the peak.


Blizzard have sold around 12m boxed copies of classic WoW and in most Asian markets they don't need to buy WoW to play it. With that in mind, there are almost certainly more ex-players than current.

I think there is a very real possibility that subscriber numbers will be down to around 5m this time next year especially if a new expansion is a year off, in which case F2P is probably inevitable. Blizzard have too much pride to just watch their baby become increasingly irrelevant and the higher ups will be on their case to turn this around.


I'd wager that we have a new expac by this time next year. Announcement at Blizzcon, Beta in February, Launch in June. Maybe even faster.
Amirya wrote:... because everyone needs a Catagonskin rug.

twinkfist wrote:i feel bad for the Mogu...having to deal with alcoholic bears.
User avatar
halabar
 
Posts: 9379
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 8:21 am
Location: <in the guild that shall not be named>

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Lieris » Mon Aug 05, 2013 6:21 pm

halabar wrote:I'd wager that we have a new expac by this time next year. Announcement at Blizzcon, Beta in February, Launch in June. Maybe even faster.


I remember people saying exactly this but about MOP! ;)
Lieris
Maintankadonor
 
Posts: 2181
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:49 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Worldie » Mon Aug 05, 2013 6:27 pm

Well MoP was due in september so not a huge delay from that
theckhd wrote:Fuck no, we've seen what you do to guilds. Just imagine what you could do to an entire country. Just visiting the US might be enough to make the southern states try to secede again.

halabar wrote:Noo.. you don't realize the problem. Worldie was to negative guild breaking energy like Bolvar is to the Scourge. If Worldie is removed, than someone must pick up that mantle, otherwise that negative guild breaking energy will run rampant, destroying all the servers.
User avatar
Worldie
Global Mod
 
Posts: 13645
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:49 pm
Location: Italy

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Lieris » Mon Aug 05, 2013 6:54 pm

Before we had a release date and everyone was speculating, most people (at least in my guild and on my server) thought that MOP would come out early summer because "they're not going to make us raid an 8 boss dungeon for much longer than 6 months and they said they wanted to get expansions out quicker".

I will be very surprised if a new expansion comes out before September next year.
Lieris
Maintankadonor
 
Posts: 2181
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:49 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Darielle » Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:19 pm

If we have a year of Siege of Orgrimmar, I will lol so hard.
Darielle
 
Posts: 1319
Joined: Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:41 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby samsara » Tue Aug 06, 2013 2:55 am

Darielle wrote:If we have a year of Siege of Orgrimmar, I will lol so hard.


hm, i don't expect it to be a much shorter period of time than this.

Throne was released in March, which is 6 month ago and i guess SoO will be out in 1-2 month. So we have 8 Month and not all (non)heroic guilds have reached their prefered goals. The last Raid allways had to last a bit longer so 10-12 month are reasonalbe, if we like it or not. At least there will be plenty of time to farm achievements or go out :)
Image
samsara
 
Posts: 207
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 6:17 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Nooska » Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:08 am

No way Wow would go F2P with 5 million subs still. Hnestly I don't think wow will ever go F2P, it will be shut down instead (and then not till after they have something new lined up).
Main Characters:
Nooska, Blood Elf BM/SV Hunter on Argent Dawn (EU)
Morosin, Bloody freezing orc death knight on Argent Dawn (EU)
Niisca, Shady forsaken "priest" on Argent Dawn (EU)

Keeper Emeritus of the BM hunters guide on Elitist Jerks and the wowhead version untill patch 5.3.
User avatar
Nooska
 
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2011 10:55 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Worldie » Tue Aug 06, 2013 5:02 am

It's possible that when WoW will be on actual decline (dropping to 1-2 million subs) they will finally announce Titan.

I don't really see a company host 2 MMO's at same time: that'd be just making competition with itself.
theckhd wrote:Fuck no, we've seen what you do to guilds. Just imagine what you could do to an entire country. Just visiting the US might be enough to make the southern states try to secede again.

halabar wrote:Noo.. you don't realize the problem. Worldie was to negative guild breaking energy like Bolvar is to the Scourge. If Worldie is removed, than someone must pick up that mantle, otherwise that negative guild breaking energy will run rampant, destroying all the servers.
User avatar
Worldie
Global Mod
 
Posts: 13645
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:49 pm
Location: Italy

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Lieris » Tue Aug 06, 2013 6:33 am

Nooska wrote:No way Wow would go F2P with 5 million subs still. Hnestly I don't think wow will ever go F2P, it will be shut down instead (and then not till after they have something new lined up).


Nope. They won't shut it down and they won't sit back and let such a decline happen.

Subscription costs have stayed the same in the west ever since launch but server and personnel costs are significantly less than they were at launch so they don't need to be charging $15 a month anymore. They almost certainly have a F2P business model drawn up already and they won't let the Warcraft brand become a joke.

Worldie wrote:It's possible that when WoW will be on actual decline (dropping to 1-2 million subs) they will finally announce Titan.

I don't really see a company host 2 MMO's at same time: that'd be just making competition with itself.


Because I like making bold predictions: WoW will still be online 10, maybe even 20 years from now. Blizzard don't let their games die.
Lieris
Maintankadonor
 
Posts: 2181
Joined: Mon Jun 18, 2007 7:49 am

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby Worldie » Tue Aug 06, 2013 7:09 am

Would be interesting to see what lore they can invent to keep the game going for 5+ more expansions though.

Nevertheless, I'll likely keep playing it until they shut it down.
theckhd wrote:Fuck no, we've seen what you do to guilds. Just imagine what you could do to an entire country. Just visiting the US might be enough to make the southern states try to secede again.

halabar wrote:Noo.. you don't realize the problem. Worldie was to negative guild breaking energy like Bolvar is to the Scourge. If Worldie is removed, than someone must pick up that mantle, otherwise that negative guild breaking energy will run rampant, destroying all the servers.
User avatar
Worldie
Global Mod
 
Posts: 13645
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:49 pm
Location: Italy

Re: Blizzard Loses 600k Subscribers in 2 Months

Postby cdan » Tue Aug 06, 2013 7:47 am

Worldie wrote:Would be interesting to see what lore they can invent to keep the game going for 5+ more expansions though.

Nevertheless, I'll likely keep playing it until they shut it down.


I don't see why they can't just completely make stuff up that goes off on a massive tangent from what is considered to be the canon. Some people think that has already happened anyway.

The people who are into the underpinning lore of WoW might cry foul for a month or two, but I doubt if the majority of players would bother as long as the game play was unaffected and the story was reasonably strong.
cdan
 
Posts: 378
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2007 2:58 am

PreviousNext

Return to General

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Yahoo [Bot] and 1 guest

Who is online

In total there are 2 users online :: 1 registered, 0 hidden and 1 guest (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
Most users ever online was 380 on Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:28 pm

Users browsing this forum: Yahoo [Bot] and 1 guest